KICT [142049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 142049
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
349 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0347 PM HAIL 1 SW HARPER 37.28N 98.04W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH HARPER KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KED

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KDDC [142048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 142048
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
348 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0336 PM HAIL 9 ENE MEDICINE LODGE 37.34N 98.43W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH BARBER KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

26

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KAMA [142037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 142037
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
337 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM HAIL 8 SE PANHANDLE 35.26N 101.28W
10/13/2007 E0.75 INCH CARSON TX PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00028

$$

BROST

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2077

ACUS11 KWNS 142019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142018
OKZ000-TXZ000-142215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2077
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SW AND CNTRL OK/NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 142018Z - 142215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A WEATHER
WATCH IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA MOVES EASTWARD. MUCAPE VALUES IN THE REGION ARE NEAR 2000
J/KG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS AND CURRENTLY
OBSERVED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.
HOWEVER...LATEST 18Z RUC MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVER TIME....ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. GIVEN
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE MODE IS MAINLY A
LINEAR-TYPE SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH DISCRETE CELLS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AND DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION. A
SPECIAL 19Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SOME COOLING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
SINCE 12Z...INDICATING THAT THE CAP OVER THE REGION IS DIMINISHING
RATHER QUICKLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS COOLING IN THIS LAYER
CONTINUES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. ONCE
THE CAP HAS BROKEN...STORMS WILL FORM AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SEVERE OVER TIME AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

.LEVIT.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

35669957 35969901 35789790 35239782 34449788 33799802
33689904 33719973 33860021 34680025 35210003

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 142002
SWODY1
SPC AC 141959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS...

..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE E TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES
INDICATED A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH FAR WRN OK AND NW TX TO SERN NM.
AT 18Z...A FEW WEAK SURFACE WAVES WERE LOCATED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONE IN NORTH CENTRAL KS AND A SECOND ANALYZED NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE IN NW TX.

SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO KS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS CENTRAL KS...
BUT BROKEN CLOUDS OVER SW OK/NW TX SHOULD RESULT IN STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION INTO THIS REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED TSTMS HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
IN CENTRAL KS TO PART OF NW OK...WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS LOCATED
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NW/NORTH CENTRAL OK. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT DESPITE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY WITH MORE SWD
EXTENT INTO OK/NW TX WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER...TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE AS THE
COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND SOME LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
TO BE GREATEST WITH SWD EXTENT INTO SW OK/NW TX WHERE DISCRETE
STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING.

FARTHER N...DESPITE MUCH WEAKER INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ACROSS NEB
INTO WRN IA...LOW LEVEL WAA COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE TSTMS
WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.PETERS.. 10/14/2007

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KLBF [142000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 142000
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
259 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0242 PM HAIL 10 NW ANSELMO 41.72N 100.00W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

HENDERSON

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 703

WWUS20 KWNS 141916
SEL3
SPC WW 141916
KSZ000-OKZ000-150200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 703
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENID OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG/AHEAD
OF N/S COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK. WITH AIR MASS NOW
MDTLY UNSTABLE AND THE CAP WEAKENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22035.

..HALES

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KBOU [141823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 141823
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1223 PM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1221 PM SNOW FAIRPLAY 39.22N 106.00W
10/14/2007 M6.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1145 AM SNOW 2 SSE TABERNASH 39.95N 105.84W
10/14/2007 M3.8 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1145 AM HEAVY SNOW BRECKENRIDGE 39.51N 106.05W
10/14/2007 M12.0 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0949 AM SNOW 3 NNE BAILEY 39.43N 105.44W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 AM SNOW 4 WSW ELDORADO SPRINGS 39.91N 105.34W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 1 S BRECKENRIDGE 39.49N 106.05W
10/14/2007 M8.5 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0817 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0807 AM SNOW 6 SW EVERGREEN 39.57N 105.42W
10/14/2007 M2.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 5 SW GEORGETOWN 39.66N 105.76W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW 2 NNE PINECLIFFE 39.96N 105.42W
10/14/2007 M5.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS SNOWPACKED

0747 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW DILLON 39.62N 106.04W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH SUMMIT CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW ASPEN SPRINGS 39.83N 105.48W
10/14/2007 M3.5 INCH GILPIN CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM SNOW 1 NW ROLLINSVILLE 39.93N 105.51W
10/14/2007 M3.4 INCH BOULDER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0617 AM SNOW ST MARYS GLACIER 39.84N 105.65W
10/14/2007 M4.5 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 AM SNOW 3 W JAMESTOWN 40.12N 105.45W
10/14/2007 M2.2 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 AM SNOW EMPIRE 39.76N 105.68W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

AT HENDERSON MINE

&&

$$

CLB

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KOAX [141810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KOAX 141810
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
110 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
10/14/2007 M0.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DOWNTOWN OMAHA.

0301 AM HAIL COUNCIL BLUFFS 41.24N 95.86W
10/14/2007 M1.00 INCH POTTAWATTAMIE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH HAIL IN COUNCIL BLUFFS...WESTERN PART ON
INTERSTATE 29.

0307 AM HAIL PALMYRA 40.71N 96.39W
10/14/2007 M0.88 INCH OTOE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0315 AM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH SARPY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0330 AM HAIL 1 NW BARNESTON 40.06N 96.59W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH GAGE NE PUBLIC

0345 AM HAIL 2 E COUNCIL BLUFFS 41.24N 95.82W
10/14/2007 E1.25 INCH POTTAWATTAMIE IA PUBLIC

&&

$$

BG

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KPUB [141809]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 141809
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1208 PM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM SNOW 3 NE FLORISSANT 38.98N 105.26W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0959 AM SNOW 4 NNE FLORISSANT 39.00N 105.27W
10/14/2007 M1.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0929 AM SNOW 10 SW CREEDE 37.75N 107.06W
10/14/2007 M2.5 INCH MINERAL CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0907 AM SNOW LEADVILLE 39.25N 106.29W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH LAKE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING LIGHTLY

0707 AM SNOW CLIMAX 39.37N 106.18W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH LAKE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
5.00 LEADVILLE CO LAKE 0907 AM
IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING LIGHTLY
3.00 CLIMAX CO LAKE 0707 AM
3.00 3 NE FLORISSANT CO TELLER 1142 AM
2.50 10 SW CREEDE CO MINERAL 0929 AM
1.00 4 NNE FLORISSANT CO TELLER 0959 AM

$$

METZE

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KPUB [141808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 141808
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1208 PM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM SNOW 3 NE FLORISSANT 38.98N 105.26W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0959 AM SNOW 4 NNE FLORISSANT 39.00N 105.27W
10/14/2007 M1.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0929 AM SNOW 10 SW CREEDE 37.75N 107.06W
10/14/2007 M2.5 INCH MINERAL CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0907 AM SNOW LEADVILLE 39.25N 106.29W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH LAKE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING LIGHTLY

0707 AM SNOW CLIMAX 39.37N 106.18W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH LAKE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

METZE

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2076

ACUS11 KWNS 141757
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141756
KSZ000-OKZ000-141900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2076
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS/NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141756Z - 141900Z

A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL KS AND NW OK OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 3 HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY. A WW APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM NEAR GREAT
BEND KS TO NEAR GAGE OKLAHOMA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO MOISTURE ADVECTION WHICH
COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NCNTRL OK AND SCNTRL KS. THE INCREASING
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM INTENSITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC-BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THE LATEST PROFILERS ACROSS SRN KS
SUGGEST ABOUT 45 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN OVER TIME.

.BROYLES.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

39659911 37889965 36979999 36229977 36009919 36159838
37689758 39549750

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KPUB [141744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 141744
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1143 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM SNOW 3 NE FLORISSANT 38.98N 105.26W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JCERU

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KOAX [141735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 141735
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1235 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM HAIL 1 NW BARNESTON 40.06N 96.59W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH GAGE NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

BG

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141720
SWODY2
SPC AC 141718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY SWD TO
NERN TX...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS
THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS WITHIN BAND OF 50-70 KT
SWLY WINDS. ATTENDANT PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A
MORE NEGATIVE ORIENTATION AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
AND LOWER MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE WRN STATES. AT
12Z MONDAY...SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER SERN NEB WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING SWD THROUGH ERN KS/OK INTO NRN TO SWRN TX. THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING DURING DAY 2...WITH THE LOW
TRACKING NNEWD INTO IA AND THE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD INTO MO. THE
SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH ERN OK INTO AR
AND TOWARD CENTRAL TX.

..ERN OK/NE TX TO PARTS OF LOWER MS VALLEY...
GIVEN THAT TRACK OF SYSTEM IS LOCATED WELL INLAND OF THE GULF
COAST...LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME FOR A GREATER INTRUSION
OF MOISTURE FARTHER NWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE NWD
EXTENT OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
FROM ERN OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE WEAK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AND SOME SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/ WILL EXTEND FROM ERN OK AND E TX
INTO AR AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG BAND SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.
GREATEST THREAT SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SPREADING ESEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS AND ALSO ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NE TX INTO
ERN OK MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..ERN KS/MO...
SOME SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...GIVEN PROXIMITY TO COLDER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAKER UPPER FORCING...WEAK LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...AND WEAK INSTABILITY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
THAN EXPECTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35
KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE
TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.PETERS.. 10/14/2007

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KOAX [141719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 141719
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1219 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 AM HAIL 2 E COUNCIL BLUFFS 41.24N 95.82W
10/14/2007 E1.25 INCH POTTAWATTAMIE IA PUBLIC

&&

$$

BG

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KGID [141657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 141657
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1157 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 AM HAIL 4 W ARAPAHOE 40.31N 99.97W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH FURNAS NE PUBLIC

NICKEL HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

0450 AM HAIL ARAPAHOE 40.31N 99.90W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH FURNAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0757 AM HAIL COZAD 40.86N 99.99W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

1118 AM HAIL 5 SSE COZAD 40.80N 99.95W
10/14/2007 E0.25 INCH DAWSON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1120 AM HAIL 6 SE COZAD 40.80N 99.91W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH DAWSON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

1125 AM HAIL 6 ESE COZAD 40.83N 99.88W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

NWS

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KLBF [141656]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 141656
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1156 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 AM HAIL 5 SSE OCONTO 41.07N 99.72W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KGID [141638]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 141638
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1137 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM HAIL 6 SE COZAD 40.80N 99.91W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH DAWSON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2075

ACUS11 KWNS 141629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141629
NEZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL AND ECNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141629Z - 141800Z

A SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST ACROSS CNTRL NEB THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ROTATING STORMS MOVE NEWD
INTO ECNTRL NEB OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED...HOWEVER WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ERN CO
WITH THE RUC MODEL ANALYZING A VORTICITY MAX MOVING NEWD INTO FAR
SRN NEB ATTM. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX IN A BAND OF FOCUSED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS EVIDENT ON
THE SRN NEB PROFILER WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
ROTATING STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

.BROYLES.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

40630064 40160043 40069982 40529848 41439720 42049726
42039832 41279982

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KGID [141626]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 141626
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1126 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM HAIL 6 ESE COZAD 40.83N 99.88W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [141621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 141621
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1121 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM HAIL 5 SSE COZAD 40.80N 99.95W
10/14/2007 E0.25 INCH DAWSON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

NWS

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KBOU [141613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 141613
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1012 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 AM SNOW 3 NNE BAILEY 39.43N 105.44W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 AM SNOW 4 WSW ELDORADO SPRINGS 39.91N 105.34W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 1 S BRECKENRIDGE 39.49N 106.05W
10/14/2007 M8.5 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0817 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0807 AM SNOW 6 SW EVERGREEN 39.57N 105.42W
10/14/2007 M2.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 2 NNE PINECLIFFE 39.96N 105.42W
10/14/2007 M5.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS SNOWPACKED

0800 AM SNOW 5 SW GEORGETOWN 39.66N 105.76W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0747 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW DILLON 39.62N 106.04W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH SUMMIT CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW ASPEN SPRINGS 39.83N 105.48W
10/14/2007 M3.5 INCH GILPIN CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM SNOW 1 NW ROLLINSVILLE 39.93N 105.51W
10/14/2007 M3.4 INCH BOULDER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0617 AM SNOW ST MARYS GLACIER 39.84N 105.65W
10/14/2007 M4.5 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 AM SNOW 3 W JAMESTOWN 40.12N 105.45W
10/14/2007 M2.2 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 AM SNOW EMPIRE 39.76N 105.68W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

AT HENDERSON MINE

&&

$$

CLB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141610
SWODY1
SPC AC 141608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES THIS AM CONTINUES EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER WINDS ROTATING
AROUND TO E SIDE OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT AS OF 16Z LOCATED FROM NCENTRAL KS SSWWD INTO EXTREME
NWRN OK TO ECENTRAL NM. THERE IS A PRONOUNCED TONGUE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 35-40KT LOW LEVEL JET FROM W CENTRAL TX
THRU WRN OK INTO S KS. BY MID AFTERNOON THE CINH AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING FROM N TO S WITH INITIAL SURFACE BASED
STORMS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO NWRN OK.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60KT AND MLCAPES TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS. WITH PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...STORM MODE SHOULD RATHER QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR
ACROSS KS. SUPERCELLS/TORNADO THREAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS KS MOSTLY
PRIOR TO 00Z AFTER WHICH WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT WILL BECOME PRIMARY
THREAT AS STORMS EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINEAR MODE.

ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL OK INTO NWRN TX...EXPECT A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS
TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO STORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...MLCAPES WILL INCREASE
TO 2000 J/KG PRIOR TO STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO THERE IS A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITH THE
IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS. TORNADOS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS/SUPERCELLS THAT CAN INITIATE IN
THE WARM SECTOR INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO
INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK THIS EVENING ENHANCING
THE STORM RELATIVELY INFLOW/HELICITY.

OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...BUT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH WEAKENING SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY.

.HALES/LEVIT.. 10/14/2007

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KPUB [141601]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 141601
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0959 AM SNOW 4 NNE FLORISSANT 39.00N 105.27W
10/14/2007 M1.0 INCH TELLER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JCERU

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KLBF [141600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 141600
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1100 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM HAIL 7 SW EUSTIS 40.59N 100.12W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KGID [141537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 141537
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1037 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 AM HAIL 4 W ARAPAHOE 40.31N 99.97W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH FURNAS NE PUBLIC

NICKEL HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

&&

$$

NWS

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KPUB [141535]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 141535
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
935 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0929 AM SNOW 10 SW CREEDE 37.75N 107.06W
10/14/2007 M2.5 INCH MINERAL CO CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JCERU

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KPUB [141510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 141510
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
909 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0907 AM SNOW LEADVILLE 39.25N 106.29W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH LAKE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

IT IS CURRENTLY SNOWING LIGHTLY

0707 AM SNOW CLIMAX 39.37N 106.18W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH LAKE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JCERU

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KBOU [141505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 141505
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
905 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0817 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0807 AM SNOW 6 SW EVERGREEN 39.57N 105.42W
10/14/2007 M2.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 2 NNE PINECLIFFE 39.96N 105.42W
10/14/2007 M5.4 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ROADS SNOWPACKED

0800 AM SNOW 5 SW GEORGETOWN 39.66N 105.76W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0747 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/14/2007 M4.0 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 AM SNOW DILLON 39.62N 106.04W
10/14/2007 M5.0 INCH SUMMIT CO CO-OP OBSERVER

0700 AM SNOW ASPEN SPRINGS 39.83N 105.48W
10/14/2007 M3.5 INCH GILPIN CO AMATEUR RADIO

0700 AM SNOW 1 NW ROLLINSVILLE 39.93N 105.51W
10/14/2007 M3.4 INCH BOULDER CO AMATEUR RADIO

0617 AM SNOW ST MARYS GLACIER 39.84N 105.65W
10/14/2007 M4.5 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 AM SNOW 3 W JAMESTOWN 40.12N 105.45W
10/14/2007 M2.2 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 AM SNOW EMPIRE 39.76N 105.68W
10/14/2007 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

AT HENDERSON MINE

&&

$$

CLB

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KLBF [141402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 141402
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
901 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0742 AM HAIL 20 SSE BRADY 40.76N 100.22W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN NE PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [141356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 141356
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
856 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 AM HAIL 6 ENE CURTIS 40.67N 100.41W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KICT [141345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 141345
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
845 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 AM HAIL GENESEO 38.52N 98.15W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH ELLSWORTH KS TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY PEA SIZED WITH SOME DIME SIZED.

&&

$$

KED

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KLBF [141334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 141334
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
834 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0829 AM HAIL 2 NNE OCONTO 41.17N 99.75W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KGID [141310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGID 141310
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
810 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0757 AM HAIL COZAD 40.86N 99.99W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [141303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 141303
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
803 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0757 AM HAIL COZAD 40.86N 99.99W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

NWS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141255
SWODY1
SPC AC 141253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...

..SYNOPSIS...
CNTRL/SRN RCKYS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE E INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS THIS
EVENING AS UPSTREAM SYSTEM NEARS THE CA CST. THE RCKYS SYSTEM MAY
DECELERATE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AS NRN PART CLOSES OFF OVER
WRN NEB AND SRN SPEED MAX NOW OVER NW MEXICO CONTINUES E/NE INTO SW
TX.

SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO RCKYS TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER NW TX THROUGH THIS EVENING...PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO LOCAL MAX IN
SFC HEATING. THE CIRCULATION SHOULD WEAKEN TONIGHT AS STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...AND MAIN CENTER REFORMS NEWD CLOSER TO
DEVELOPING UPR LOW IN NRN KS/SE NEB.

..SRN/CNTRL PLNS...
CLUSTERS/BANDS OF ELEVATED STORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG AXIS OF PERSISTENT 850 MB WAA FROM NW KS/S CNTRL NEB
E/NE INTO WRN/NR IA. WHILE CLOUD LYR SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH TIME
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROUGH...MID LVL LAPSE RATES MAY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO POSE AT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL IN SOME
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN EDGE OF WAA AXIS IN SRN/ERN NEB.

FARTHER S...FROM CNTRL KS SSW INTO WRN OK...NNE/SSW-ORIENTED COLD
FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS MAIN FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY STOUT CAP AND INCREASING PREFRONTAL CLOUDINESS SUGGEST THAT
INITIATION LIKELY WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/
EARLY THIS EVENING. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH JET STREAK
NOW OVER NRN MEXICO SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

CURRENT SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RICHER GULF
MOISTURE /WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LWR TO MID 60S/ NOW OVER NW TX /NEAR
ABI/. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD N TO ABOUT THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY TONIGHT...INCREASING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY NWD INTO S CNTRL
KS. LOW CLOUDS WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL...HOWEVER...LIMIT SFC
HEATING AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION. COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...EXPECT THAT STORM
INITIATION IN KS WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO COLD FRONT. FARTHER
S...SOMEWHAT GREATER HEATING MAY OCCUR ON WRN EDGE OF LOW LVL CLOUD
FIELD OVER WRN OK AND NW TX. THIS MAY FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT IN THOSE AREAS...IN ADDITION TO STRONG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO AROUND 1500
J/KG.

KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLNS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 40-50 KT DEEP SW TO SSWLY SHEAR.
UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN...HOWEVER...REGARDING DOMINANT CONVECTIVE
MODE GIVEN PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INSTABILITY AND FORCING ISSUES.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...BUT ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT FROM CNTRL INTO SW OK AND PERHAPS NW TX AS LOW-LVL
SHEAR/ASCENT STRENGTHEN WITH CONTINUED E/NE MOTION OF SRN SPEED MAX.

FARTHER S...CONTINUED HEIGHT FALLS AND ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT SHOULD
OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT S/SW INTO W-CNTRL TX
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MODERATELY STRONG DEEP SHEAR AND FAIRLY RICH
MOISTURE INFLOW SUGGEST A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO
ORGANIZED...CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD A
TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/14/2007

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KGID [141227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 141227
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
727 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM HAIL RIVERTON 40.09N 98.76W
10/13/2007 E0.50 INCH FRANKLIN NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0.86 INCHES OF RAIN

&&

$$

NWS

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KGLD [141137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 141137
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
537 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 AM HAIL 12 N ATWOOD 39.98N 101.04W
10/14/2007 E0.88 INCH RAWLINS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FOLTZ

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KGID [141122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 141122
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM HAIL 2 SE LONG ISLAND 39.93N 99.51W
10/13/2007 E0.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1038 PM HAIL 10 NW PHILLIPSBURG 39.85N 99.46W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1041 PM HAIL 10 N PHILLIPSBURG 39.90N 99.32W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1042 PM HAIL 11 N PHILLIPSBURG 39.91N 99.32W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1043 PM HAIL 11 N PHILLIPSBURG 39.91N 99.32W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

1052 PM HAIL 10 NW PHILLIPSBURG 39.85N 99.46W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0450 AM HAIL ARAPAHOE 40.31N 99.90W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH FURNAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

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KTOP [141122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 141122
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
622 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HAIL ABILENE 38.92N 97.21W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH DICKINSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0.5 TO 0.75 INCH HAIL IN TOWN

&&

$$

SBLAIR

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 702

WWUS20 KWNS 141003
SEL2
SPC WW 141003
KSZ000-NEZ000-141000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 702
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
503 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 702 ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

KANSAS
NEBRASKA

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KGID [140956]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140956
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
456 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 AM HAIL ARAPAHOE 40.31N 99.90W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH FURNAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

NWS

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KTOP [140940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 140940
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
440 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0434 AM HAIL 6 E MARYSVILLE 39.84N 96.53W
10/14/2007 E1.00 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0.88 TO 1.00 INCH HAIL

&&

$$

SBLAIR

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KOAX [140903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 140903
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
403 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W
10/14/2007 E0.75 INCH SARPY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JB

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KOAX [140819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 140819
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
319 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0307 AM HAIL PALMYRA 40.71N 96.39W
10/14/2007 M0.88 INCH OTOE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MILLER

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KOAX [140806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 140806
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
306 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
10/14/2007 M0.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH IN DOWNTOWN OMAHA.

0301 AM HAIL COUNCIL BLUFFS 41.24N 95.86W
10/14/2007 M1.00 INCH POTTAWATTAMIE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH HAIL IN COUNCIL BLUFFS...WESTERN PART ON
INTERSTATE 29.

&&

$$

MILLER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140740
SWOD48
SPC AC 140740

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME SOMEWHAT MORE IN LINE WITH
THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE UPPER PATTERN DAYS 4-7. CONSIDERABLE
AGREEMENT EXISTS WITHIN THE MODELS FROM LATE IN THE DAY ON DAY 6
/I.E. FRI. OCT. 19/ THROUGH DAY 7...AFTER WHICH SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE BEGINS.

HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY APPEAR TO BE COMING MORE IN
LINE THROUGH DAY 7...CONSIDERABLE DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST DAY 5
/THU. OCT. 18/. THIS DAY -- DEPENDING UPON WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT
WITH ITS DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE CENTRAL CONUS --
COULD POTENTIALLY BE A DAY OF RELATIVELY GREATER SEVERE THREAT.

DURING THE AFTERNOON OF DAY 5...THE GFS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOWER OVER
THE NRN PLAINS...BUT A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE NRN PLAINS LOW.
AS A RESULT...IT DEPICTS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN KS...WITH
A POTENTIALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS A LARGER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...WITHOUT THE DIGGING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THUS...THIS
MODEL DEPICTS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW INVOF IA...WITH A COLD FRONT
SURGING SEWD ACROSS AR/CENTRAL AND ERN TX. GIVEN THESE
DIFFERENCES...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A THREAT AREA ATTM FOR DAY 5.

STORMS/SOME SEVERE THREAT APPEAR LIKELY DAY 4 /WED. OCT.
17/...ROUGHLY FROM ERN KS/MO SWD INTO TX/LA...BUT DEGREE OF THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.

.GOSS.. 10/14/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2074

ACUS11 KWNS 140653
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140653
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-140900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2074
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS KS...SRN/ERN NEB.

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702...

VALID 140653Z - 140900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702
CONTINUES.

HOWEVER...POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WANING AND BECOMING MORE
MRGL...WHILE SHIFTING EWD. PER COORDINATION W/GLD-DDC...WRN
PORTIONS WW ALREADY HAVE BEEN CLEARED...AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES MAY
BE EXPUNGED FROM WW WITH EWD EXTENT IF PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE AS PRESENT INDICATIONS SUPPORT. MRGL HAIL THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- NEAR NRN PERIPHERY OF
50 KT SSWLY LLJ -- WILL EXPAND/SHIFT NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS ERN NEB.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SPATIAL TREND OF PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH NEWD EXTENT AWAY FROM CURRENT WW
AREA...ADDITIONAL WW MAY NOT BE NECESSARY SOON.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONES OVER NWRN KS BETWEEN RSL-HLC...AND
N-CENTRAL OK PANHANDLE N GUY. COLD FRONT CONNECTING THEM SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL SWRN KS...WHILE MORE DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD PAST I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARD NRN 1-2 TIERS OF KS
COUNTIES...NE RSL. TIME SERIES OF RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...MODIFIED FOR
OBSERVED SFC CONDITIONS...SUGGESTS CINH IS INCREASING AND DECREASING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF WW AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT...WHILE BEHIND FRONT...POSTFRONTAL CAA INTENSIFIES AND
STABLE LAYER DEEPENS. WHILE ELEVATED/EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF HAIL PRODUCTION WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE/DAMAGING
HAIL OR FOR MORE THAN SPORADIC HAIL PRODUCTION FROM TSTMS APPEARS TO
BE WANING.

.EDWARDS.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

36980031 37899971 39399921 40419940 42009671 40209671
38259800 36939968 36940018

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140633
SWODY3
SPC AC 140632

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS/THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME WHILE MOVING NEWD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE MOVING
ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..MIDWEST/MID OH VALLEY REGION...
A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER
MI/IL/INDIANA/OH/KY THIS PERIOD...AHEAD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT. AS
SERN FRINGE NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT MOVES NEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION...40 TO 50 KT WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AT MID LEVELS. WHILE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF WEAKENING FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN MINIMAL /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/...CAPE-SHEAR
COMBINATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER/BRIEFLY-SEVERE
STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS. ANY THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION.

.GOSS.. 10/14/2007

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KDDC [140431]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140431
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1131 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1128 PM HAIL OTIS 38.53N 99.05W
10/13/2007 E1.00 INCH RUSH KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2073

ACUS11 KWNS 140428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140427
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-140530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...TX...OK...KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 140427Z - 140530Z

ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT TO POSE A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

RECENT RAPID STORM INITIATION IN THE TX PNHDL APPEARS LINKED TO
DRYLINE RETREAT/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND EMERGING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF SWRN U.S./SRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY
MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA BASED ON
RELATIVELY HIGH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED TO
INCREASE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...ONGOING
STORMS ARE WITHIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FLOW REGIME WITH DEEP-LAYER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40KT LIKELY TO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT
PERSISTENCE. AT PRESENT IT APPEARS SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A WATCH. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT BY LATEST NAM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL
GUIDANCE BE IN ERROR AND GREATER SEVERE STORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE
APPARENT...THE SITUATION WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO BE REASSESSED.

.CARBIN.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

37249977 35899973 34610068 34910137 36030129 37120093

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KGID [140404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 140404
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1103 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1052 PM HAIL 10 NW PHILLIPSBURG 39.85N 99.46W
10/13/2007 E1.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

NWS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2072

ACUS11 KWNS 140402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140401
KSZ000-NEZ000-140530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2072
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/WRN KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702...

VALID 140401Z - 140530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 702
CONTINUES.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN THE GCK/DDC AREAS AND
IN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NRN KS. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED WEST OF A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHED FROM NEAR LBL TO ABOUT 55 NE OF HLC.
MORE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WATCH AREA OVERNIGHT AS
40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET PROMOTES STRONG LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MUCAPES FROM 1500-2000
J/KG...AND THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT 50 TO
60 KT IS FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS. SINCE THE STORM BASES ARE
ROOTED AROUND 800 MB....THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...POSSIBLY UP
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

.IMY.. 10/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40010113 40789749 37969813 37440122 39650137

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KDDC [140401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 140401
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1101 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1058 PM HAIL 1 W KALVESTA 38.05N 100.30W
10/13/2007 E0.88 INCH FINNEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSCOTT

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