KSLC [252056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 252056
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
256 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0252 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S TORREY 38.26N 111.42W
08/25/2008 WAYNE UT LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLASH FLOODING ALONG SCENIC DRIVE IN CAPITOL REEF
NATIONAL PARK. FLASH FLOODING ALSO EXTENDS TO CAPITOL
GORGE AND TRIBUTIRIES LEADING INTO PARK FROM THE WEST.

&&

$$

BMCINERN

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KCYS [252055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 252055
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
255 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM HAIL 12 N CHEYENNE 41.32N 104.79W
08/25/2008 E0.50 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KPSR [252041]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 252041
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
141 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM DUST STORM ARIZONA CITY 32.75N 111.67W
08/25/2008 PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

50 FT VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DUST.

&&

$$

ROGERS

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KSGX [252021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 252021
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
121 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 AM LIGHTNING 3 NW DEVORE 34.25N 117.44W
08/25/2008 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

TWO SEPERATE BRUSH FIRES STARTED, IMPACTING TRAVEL ON
INTERSTATE 15.

1051 AM LIGHTNING SE BIG BEAR LAKE 34.24N 116.89W
08/25/2008 SAN BERNARDINO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE STARTED BY TREE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING

1129 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 ENE BIG BEAR CITY 34.27N 116.83W
08/25/2008 SAN BERNARDINO CA PUBLIC

FLOODING OBSERVED ON HIGHWAY 18 AT PARADISE AVENUE

&&

$$

RBALFO

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KPSR [252020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 252020
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
120 PM MST MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM DUST STORM LA PALMA 32.88N 111.51W
08/25/2008 PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

DUST STORM WITH VISIBILITY LEASS THAN 1/8TH OF A MILE

&&

$$

KINCAID

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KSGX [252009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 252009
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
108 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 PM HEAVY RAIN HESPERIA 34.42N 117.30W
08/25/2008 U0.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN IS CAUSING WATER TO FLOW
INTO PEOPLES YARDS. SO FAR NO HOMES HAVE BEEN FLOODED.

&&

$$

SCV

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2156

ACUS11 KWNS 251954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251954
COZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-252230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...ERN CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251954Z - 252230Z

ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A LEE TROUGH FROM ERN WY SWD
INTO SERN CO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS/MTNS SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER
GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH DMGG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SVR THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADO/S
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE INVOF BACKED SFC WINDS/BOUNDARY
INTERSECTIONS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR CAMPBELL
COUNTY WY SWD TO A LEE CYCLONE 20 NM EAST OF DENVER TO NEAR
PUEBLO...WHERE IT INTERSECTED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED SEWD
ACROSS FAR SERN CO /FROM MORNING CONVECTION IN WRN KS/. EAST OF THE
LEE TROUGH...THE AIRMASS WAS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG AND DIMINISHING CINH /LESS THAN
100 J/KG/. TO THE WEST OF THE LEE TROUGH...TSTMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE LARAMIE MTNS IN SERN WY
SWD THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CO ROCKIES WHERE CINH WAS LESS.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM HIGHER BASED
CONVECTION NW OF DEN METRO AREA WAS MOVING SEWD...WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME...THE LEE TROUGH/LOW CENTER WAS SLOWLY RETROGRADING WWD ACROSS
ELBERT...ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES. WHEN/WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
MERGE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ESE OF
THE DENVER METRO AREA. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BRIEF STORM-SCALE MERGING AND LOCALIZED ENHANCED UPDRAFT
STRENGTH MAY POSE A MARGINAL SVR WIND/HAIL THREAT. IN ADDITION...THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LANDSPOUT TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INVOF OF BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS. GIVEN WEAK
LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DISORGANIZED AND PULSE IN NATURE INITIALLY. SLIGHTLY GREATER LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH /OWING TO APPROACHING NRN
ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH/ MAY SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS LATER
THIS EVENING IF SUFFICIENT REMOVAL OF REMAINING CINH OCCURS OVER
PANHANDLE OF NEB/ERN HIGH PLAINS OF CO. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW IN THESE AREAS.

..CROSBIE.. 08/25/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

37030460 38650505 39760511 40540529 43620585 43830502
43310423 41020256 38700247 37660254 37070301

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251950
SWODY1
SPC AC 251947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
AL AND WRN GA...

...AL/GA/TN THIS AFTERNOON...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ARE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM
CENTRAL/ERN MS INTO WRN AL. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
IN SEVERAL BANDS FROM ERN AL INTO WRN GA...WELL E/NE OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN ARE LIMITING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AL...WHILE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ARE
LOCATED FARTHER E IN PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL GA. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR IS LOCATED WITHIN THE AREA STABILIZED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION. A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN AL/WRN
GA/SRN TN...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED EARLIER
TODAY.

...SW AZ/INTERIOR SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS HAS SPREAD INLAND UP THE CO RIVER
VALLEY INTO SW AZ AND SE CA...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM JULIO IN THE GULF OF CA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 65-75 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN AZ AND INTERIOR SRN CA. WEAK MID LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL
HELP SOME OF THE CONVECTION PROPAGATE WWD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
BOTH AZ AND CA...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...WILL LIKELY FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME SE CO INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER N...SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW ARE SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT
RANGE OF CO. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE E OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MORE CONVECTION COULD FORM TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING SLY LLJ.

..THOMPSON/KIS.. 08/25/2008

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KBMX [251924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251924
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
224 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1216 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE DEARMANVILLE 33.68N 85.70W
08/25/2008 CALHOUN AL EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO. SEVERAL RESIDENCES DAMAGED CHOCOLOCCO
WHITE PLAINS ROAD. TREES DOWN AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE OVER
2 MILE STRETCH BETWEEN GRAND VIEW SUBDIVISON AND MOUTAIN
VIEW SUBDIVISION.

&&

$$

KLS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2155

ACUS11 KWNS 251907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251907
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-252000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2155
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...AL/FL PANHANDLE/WRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 863...

VALID 251907Z - 252000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 863 CONTINUES.

ERN PART OF WW 863 /ERN AL AND WRN GA/ MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR
1-2 HOURS BEYOND THE SCHEDULED 20Z EXPIRATION TIME. HOWEVER...
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIMINISHING
THIS AFTERNOON.

AT 1830Z...REGIONAL RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE CENTER OF
T.D. FAY MOVING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS. AREA VWP DATA
INDICATED SOME WEAKENING IN THE LLJ WITH STRONGEST AXIS OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL WINDS HAS SHIFTED EWD INTO ERN AL TO ALONG THE AL/GA
BORDER. BACKED SURFACE WINDS /ESELY/ BENEATH SLY LLJ ARE
MAINTAINING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SHEAR 30-40 KT/ FROM
CENTRAL/ERN AL INTO WRN GA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT
ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF T.D. FAY HAS OVERTURNED MUCH OF THE AVAILABLE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR VALUES WOULD SUPPORT
STORM ROTATION...THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 08/25/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

30008717 31268768 31488738 32228697 33228726 33978764
33998693 34238610 34558539 34388430 33188395 31988402
31668452 30488449 29768464 29218521 29928629

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KBMX [251907]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KBMX 251907
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
206 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM TORNADO TROY 31.81N 85.97W
08/25/2008 PIKE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

UNCONFIRMED TORNADO DAMAGE TROY STATE CAMPUS AND ON
NEEDMORE ROAD. REPORTED 0845

0943 AM FLASH FLOOD ALABASTER 33.23N 86.82W
08/25/2008 SHELBY AL AMATEUR RADIO

MEASURED 3INCH RECENT RAINFALL CAUSING STREET FLOODING

1058 AM FUNNEL CLOUD LINEVILLE 33.31N 85.75W
08/25/2008 CLAY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR LINEVILLE

1102 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 N ODENVILLE 33.76N 86.38W
08/25/2008 ST. CLAIR AL PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON AL-23 NEAR THE PRISON.

1125 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 S ONEONTA 33.89N 86.48W
08/25/2008 BLOUNT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

UNSPECIFIED DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE BOAT LAUNCH ON THE
NORTH END OF INLAND LAKE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

1125 AM TORNADO REMLAP 33.84N 86.61W
08/25/2008 BLOUNT AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

UNCONFIRMED TORNADO INLAND LAKE BOAT LAUNCH.

1127 AM FLASH FLOOD TALLADEGA 33.43N 86.10W
08/25/2008 TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

JOHNSON AVE AT COOSA STREET, DOWNTOWN TALLADEGA.

1150 AM FLASH FLOOD BESSEMER 33.38N 86.96W
08/25/2008 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

MORGAN ROAD AND I-459. ROAD CLOSED. 2 FEET OF STANDING
WATER ON ROAD.

1150 AM FLASH FLOOD BESSEMER 33.38N 86.96W
08/25/2008 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

HWY 52, 1/2 MILE FROM BESSEMER RECEIVED 3 PLUS INCHES
RAINFALL AND WATER IS OVER ROAD.

1156 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW CHALAFINNEE 33.59N 85.69W
08/25/2008 CLEBURNE AL TRAINED SPOTTER

POSSIBLE TORNADO. TREES DOWN ON SCENIC BYWAY WEST OF 431
BYPASS.

&&

$$

MROSE

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KSGX [251838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 251838
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1137 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HEAVY RAIN BIG BEAR CITY 34.27N 116.85W
08/25/2008 M0.67 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA AWOS

BIG BEAR CITY AIRPORT MEASURED 0.67 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20
MINUTES. THUNDERSTORM IS STILL IN PROGRESS.

&&

$$

SCV

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KSGX [251837]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 251837
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1137 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM HEAVY RAIN BIG BEAR CITY 34.27N 116.85W
08/25/2008 M0.67 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA AWOS

BIG BEAR CITY AIRPORT MEASURED 0.67 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20
MINUTES. THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL IN PROGRESS.

&&

$$

SCV

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KSGX [251821]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 251821
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1121 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HAIL WRIGHTWOOD 34.36N 117.63W
08/25/2008 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN WRIGHTWOOD 34.36N 117.63W
08/25/2008 M0.50 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF INCH OF RAIN MEASURED BETWEEN 1030 AND 1100 AM.

1110 AM HAIL IDYLLWILD-PINE COVE 33.75N 116.72W
08/25/2008 E0.25 INCH RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA-SIZE HAIL OBSERVED FROM A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN
IDYLLWILD AND BIG PINES.

&&

$$

SCV

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2154

ACUS11 KWNS 251814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251813
CAZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2154
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA MTNS AND VALLEYS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 251813Z - 252115Z

HEAVY RAIN WITH HOURLY RATES OVER 2 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY WITH TSTMS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS/INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SRN
CA THROUGH 21Z. MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS...SO A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE UP THE COLORADO RIVER EARLY THIS MORNING
HAS PROGRESSED WWD INTO THE COACHELLA VALLEY AND INTO THE LEE SIDE
OF THE MTNS OF SRN CA WHERE SFC DWPTS IN THE MID 70S WERE
COMMONPLACE AT 18Z. IN ADDITION...DEEP ENELY FLOW WAS EVIDENT
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 KM /ABOVE THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LAYER/ FROM THE
VWP DATA FROM SAN DIEGO AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF AFFECTS FROM T.S
JULIO. AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE NOW OVER THE AREA EVIDENT BY EARLY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OVER THE MTNS OF SRN CA /10 AM PDT/. RECENT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND DECREASING CINH.
ALTHOUGH TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY POSE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE HEAVY RAIN. GOES
SOUNDER DATA INDICATES PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE SAN DIEGO
MTNS/DESERTS TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE VALLEYS/COASTAL AREAS OF
SRN CA. MODERATE CONVERGENCE AIDED BY THE MONSOON SURGE ON THE ERN
SIDE OF THE SRN CA MTNS COUPLED WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT ON THE WRN
SLOPES/INTERIOR VALLEYS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS
FROM THE ERN LA BASIN REGION/INLAND EMPIRE SWD TO THE MTNS OF SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS DUE TO WEAK WIND
FIELDS COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOISTURE VALUES WILL
SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN RATES OVER 2 INCHES. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL AID
IN TRANSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT LOCATION OVER TIME...WITH
STORM DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE COASTAL VALLEYS WHERE
CINH IS GREATER.

..CROSBIE.. 08/25/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...LOX...

32581667 33151693 33761729 33971759 34181817 34361843
34601841 34431700 34241663 33251631 32671616

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KBMX [251746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251746
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1246 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 E FORT MCCLELLAN 33.73N 85.69W
08/25/2008 CALHOUN AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO. SEVERAL HOUSES DAMAGED. NO INJURIES
REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

KLS

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KBMX [251741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251741
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1241 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1156 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW CHALAFINNEE 33.59N 85.69W
08/25/2008 CLEBURNE AL TRAINED SPOTTER

POSSIBLE TORNADO. TREES DOWN ON SCENIC BYWAY WEST OF 431
BYPASS.

&&

$$

KLS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251731
SWODY2
SPC AC 251728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEB/SD...

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN WA/ORE WILL
PROGRESS EWD OVER MT/NRN WY TOMORROW...AND THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SEWD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TUESDAY. A PLUME OF BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 60-64F WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NWD FROM WRN KS/NEB TO
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BENEATH AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. EXPECT MLCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG IMMEDIATELY E OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY CONVECTIVE
INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND CONFINE STORMS TO THE COLD
FRONT. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD EWD/SEWD WITH THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/NEB INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
ARE FORECAST TO LAG W OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
ACROSS ND...WHILE THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CORRIDOR REMAINS NARROW
AS A RESULT OF SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL
FOR A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. FARTHER S INTO NEB...CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE
COLD FRONT...AIDED BY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH A 30-40 KT LLJ.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER FROM SRN SD INTO NEB WHERE
MID-UPPER FLOW WILL BE MORE WLY/NWLY ABOVE THE SSWLY LLJ...AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THIS SAME AREA DEEPER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR EARLY AFTER STORM
INITIATION DURING THE EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT...TO THE NE OF
THE RESIDUAL /SWD MOVING/ LEE CYCLONE IN NE CO. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN APPALACHIANS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD FROM
AL TO ERN TN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WITH TIME AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE OFFSET FROM THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE S. THUS...THE THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS.

..THOMPSON.. 08/25/2008

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KFFC [251722]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 251722
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
122 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM TORNADO 3 SE ROLAND 32.83N 84.38W
08/25/2008 UPSON GA EMERGENCY MNGR

UNCONFIRMED REPORT OF A TORNADO NEAR ROLAND. RELAYED FROM
A SPOTTER BY THE EM.

&&

$$

MGRIESIN

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 864

WWUS20 KWNS 251657
SEL4
SPC WW 251657
ALZ000-TNZ000-260000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA
SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NOON UNTIL 700
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES EAST OF HUNTSVILLE
ALABAMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 863...

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ROTATE NWD E OF
REMNANTS OF FAY OVER CENTRAL MS. WITH 30-40KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SMALL
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE BANDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NWD THRU THE WATCH AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME
TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI
WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18030.

...HALES

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KDDC [251654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 251654
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1154 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 AM HEAVY RAIN 22 SE WAKEENEY 38.80N 99.59W
08/25/2008 E2.90 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MB

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KBMX [251644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251644
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM TORNADO REMLAP 33.84N 86.61W
08/25/2008 BLOUNT AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

UNCONFIRMED TORNADO INLAND LAKE BOAT LAUNCH.

&&

$$

10.5

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KBMX [251640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251640
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1140 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 S ONEONTA 33.89N 86.48W
08/25/2008 BLOUNT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

UNSPECIFIED DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE BOAT LAUNCH ON THE
NORTH END OF INLAND LAKE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

$$

61

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KBMX [251630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251630
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1130 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 AM FLASH FLOOD TALLADEGA 33.43N 86.10W
08/25/2008 TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

JOHNSON AVE AT COOSA STREET, DOWNTOWN TALLADEGA.

&&

$$

10.5

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KBMX [251629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251629
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1129 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1102 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 N ODENVILLE 33.76N 86.38W
08/25/2008 ST. CLAIR AL PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ON AL-23 NEAR THE PRISON.

&&

$$

61

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KDDC [251619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 251619
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1119 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1111 AM HEAVY RAIN 13 ESE WAKEENEY 38.95N 99.66W
08/25/2008 M3.20 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251610
SWODY1
SPC AC 251608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF AL...WRN GA AND FL
PANHANDLE...

...AL/FL/GA...
WHILE THE REMNANT CENTER OF FAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL OVER
CENTRAL MS...A MDT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KT CONTINUES TO THE E
OF THE CIRCULATION OVER AL. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL
AIR MASS COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED SHEAR AND HELICITY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL ROTATION EMBEDDED
IN LINE SEGMENTS CURRENTLY TRACKING NWD THRU ERN AL INTO FAR WRN GA.

MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOW CENTER ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
FILL AND DRIFT NWD POSSIBLY INTO WRN TN BY 12Z TUE. HOWEVER THE SLY
GRADIENT IN THE ERN SEMI-CIRCLE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN... WHILE
SLOWLY DEVELOPING A LITTLE FURTHER N AND E INTO WRN GA. THUS
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT INTO
THIS EVENING.

REF SWOMCD 2153 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA.

...SWRN AZ/SERN CA...
T.S. JULIO HAS MOVED NWD PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
UNDERWAY IN ADVANCE OF JULIO INTO SRN AZ/SERN CA. WHILE CLOUDINESS
WILL SLOW HEATING SOME IN SERN AZ...STILL EXPECT STRONG SOLAR
INSOLATION TO DEVELOP STEEP LOW/MID LAPSE RATES FROM SWRN AZ WWD
INTO IMPERIAL VALLEY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2 INCHES
...AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO AOA 2000 J/KG SWRN DESERT
VALLEYS. OVERALL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LESS THAN 10KT...THUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM INITIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
PROPAGATE INTO DESERTS VALLEYS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER LACK OF ANY
STEERING MECHANISM SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT ISOLATED. HAVE ADDED A LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITY TO REFLECT THIS.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCTD AFTN
TSTMS INVOF LEE TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND WY...GIVEN
MOIST SSELY LOW LVL FLOW BENEATH MODEST /15-25 KT/ NNW MID LVL JET.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS WEAKER THAN ON SUNDAY...WITH
NO SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF NOTE APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO
UNSTABLE AIR /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS
THROUGH EARLY EVE. DESPITE MODEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...LARGE
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT IN THE WIND PROFILES /120-150 DEGREES IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM/ AND 30 KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 08/25/2008

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KBMX [251608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251608
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1107 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1058 AM FUNNEL CLOUD LINEVILLE 33.31N 85.75W
08/25/2008 CLAY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR LINEVILLE

&&

$$

10.5

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KDDC [251605]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 251605
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1105 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 AM HEAVY RAIN 18 ENE NESS CITY 38.55N 99.60W
08/25/2008 E4.95 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

MB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2153

ACUS11 KWNS 251526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251526
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-251630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2153
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...AL/FL PANHANDLE/WRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 863...

VALID 251526Z - 251630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 863 CONTINUES.

COUNTIES WITHIN THE TLH...FFC...AND BHM /ALONG THE ERN AND NRN
PERIPHERIES OF WW 863/ MAY BE LOCALLY ADDED TO THIS WW AS THE
THREATS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ADVANCES SLOWLY TO
THE E AND NNE.

TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FARTHER N ACROSS FAR NRN AL/
NWRN GA FOR AN INCREASED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. IF A NEW WATCH
BECOMES WARRANTED FARTHER N...THEN WW 863 WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED
WITH A NEW WW.

REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED THE MOST PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATIONAL
COUPLETS IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF FAY /OVER NERN PART OF WW 863/
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE BACKED ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
CORRIDOR OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ALONG ERN
PERIPHERY OF T.D. FAY /CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL MS AT 15Z/ WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN MARGINAL INSTABILITY DESPITE EXISTENCE OF
CLOUDS AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. AREA VWP DATA SHOWED A 40 KT SLY LLJ
EXTENDING NWD THROUGH AL...WITH LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH
100-300 M2/S2/ ENHANCED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS JET. SHORT TERM
MODELS SUGGEST THAT FAY WILL TEND TO MOVE N THEN NNEWD TODAY...WITH
ATTENDANT LLJ TRANSLATING NWD ACROSS AL INTO NERN AL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD IN TURN INCREASE AND
MAY SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTING E AND NNE OF WW 863.

..PETERS.. 08/25/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...

30238738 31718764 32558786 33388824 34308812 34878800
34918681 34978538 34908448 33098390 31648376 30688375
29698412 29278519 29608690

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KTAE [251505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 251505
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1105 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD ALMA 30.61N 83.91W
08/23/2008 JEFFERSON FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

MAJOR FLOODING DUE TO TROPICAL STORM FAY ON A LARGE FARM
IN ALMA. OVER 2 FEET OF STANDING WATER IN SOME LOCATIONS
ON THE FARM.

&&

$$

GOULD

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KDDC [251502]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 251502
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1001 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM HEAVY RAIN 19 ENE NESS CITY 38.56N 99.58W
08/25/2008 M3.25 INCH RUSH KS PUBLIC

THE RAIN FELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

0825 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 E BROWNELL 38.63N 99.65W
08/25/2008 M4.00 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC

THE RAIN FELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

0830 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 ESE BROWNELL 38.62N 99.65W
08/25/2008 M2.72 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC

THE RAIN FELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE DITCHES WERE RUNNING
FULL.

0831 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 E CEDAR BLUFF 38.78N 99.62W
08/25/2008 M2.00 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

THE RAIN FELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IT WAS STILL RAINING AT
THE OBSERVATION TIME. 0.90 FELL IN 20 MINUTES.

0859 AM HEAVY RAIN 13 ESE WAKEENEY 38.95N 99.66W
08/25/2008 M3.00 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

THE RAIN FELL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IT WAS STILL RAINING
HARD AT THE OBSERVATION TIME.

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 SSE GARFIELD 38.00N 99.22W
08/25/2008 M3.50 INCH PAWNEE KS PUBLIC

IT WAS STILL RAINING AT THE OBSERVATION TIME. THE RAIN
FELL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

$$

7

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KBMX [251449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251449
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
949 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 AM FLASH FLOOD ALABASTER 33.23N 86.82W
08/25/2008 SHELBY AL AMATEUR RADIO

MEASURED 3INCH RECENT RAINFALL CAUSING STREET FLOODING

&&

$$

10.5

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KJAX [251444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 251444
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1043 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM TROPICAL STORM 6 ENE ARLINGTON 30.37N 81.51W
08/23/2008 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

THE TOP PORTION OF A LARGE OAK TREE BROKE OFF AND PUNCHED
A HOLE THROUGH THE ROOF OF A HOUSE IN THE HIDDEN HILLS
SUBDIVISION IN JACKSONVILLE.

&&

$$

MTRABERT

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KDDC [251429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 251429
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
929 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0924 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ANTONINO 38.80N 99.38W
08/25/2008 M1.00 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

0924 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 S ANTONINO 38.73N 99.37W
08/25/2008 M1.90 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

0924 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW ANTONINO 38.76N 99.39W
08/25/2008 M1.00 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

0924 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S ANTONINO 38.71N 99.38W
08/25/2008 M2.50 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KDDC [251421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 251421
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
921 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0837 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 E BROWNELL 38.64N 99.63W
08/25/2008 E4.50 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC

A NESS COUNTY WORKER REPORTED FOUR AND A HALF INCHES OF
RAIN SIX MILES EAST OF BROWNELL WITH WATER FLOODING LOCAL
ROADS.

&&

$$

JRJ

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KGSP [251406]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 251406
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1006 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1004 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 N CLARKESVILLE 34.62N 83.52W
08/25/2008 HABERSHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TURNERVILLE CIRCLE AND STATE HIGHWAY 115 FLOODED DUE TO
CREEK OUT OF BANKS.

&&

$$

PTANNER

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KTAE [251356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 251356
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
956 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM TORNADO 4 W SKIPPERVILLE 31.56N 85.61W
08/25/2008 DALE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY
ROAD 19 AND COUNTY ROAD 15 IN NORTH CENTRAL DALE COUNTY.
SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND A BARN DAMAGED. TIME ESTIMATE OF
820 AM CDT BY RADAR.

&&

$$

GODSEY

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KGSP [251352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 251352
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE CLARKESVILLE 34.64N 83.49W
08/25/2008 HABERSHAM GA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

GLADE CREEK OUT OF BANKS FLOODING GLADE CREEK ROAD.

&&

$$

PTANNER

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KBMX [251351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 251351
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
850 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM TORNADO TROY 31.81N 85.97W
08/25/2008 PIKE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

UNCONFIRMED TORNADO DAMAGE TROY STATE CAMPUS AND ON
NEEDMORE ROAD. REPORTED 0845

&&

$$

10.5

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KTAE [251341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 251341
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM TSTM WND DMG DALEVILLE 31.31N 85.71W
08/25/2008 DALE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT THE DALEVILLE INDUSTRIAL PARK AROUND
740 AM CDT. REPORT RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

$$

GODSEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251251
SWODY1
SPC AC 251248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AL...FL AND GA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED BAND OF WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NE PACIFIC ACROSS SRN
CANADA INTO NEW ENG THIS PERIOD...AS WEAK FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE
CNTRL AND SRN STATES. STRONG...PROGRESSIVE E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO WA/ORE LATER TODAY BEFORE CONTINUING E INTO ID/WRN MT
EARLY TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES IN ONTARIO WILL
SUPPORT FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF TROUGH OVER QUEBEC/NEW ENG. IN THE
SOUTH...HYBRID CIRCULATION NOW OVER SRN MS...MARKING T.D. FAY/S
MERGER WITH A MID LATITUDE VORT...EXPECTED TO EDGE SLOWLY NNE INTO
NRN AL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...AL/FL/GA...
SLOW MOVEMENT OF DEEP...HYBRID CIRCULATION OVER MS WILL MAINTAIN
INFLOW OF VERY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 2 IN/ ACROSS MUCH OF AL...NW
FL...GA... AND SC. ONLY A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM/S
WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. AREA OF CONCENTRATED
CONVECTIVE RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS NOW IN ERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION
SHOULD SHIFT SLOWLY NNE WITH THE UPR SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL KEEP ASSOCIATED SFC COLD POOL
WEAK. COUPLED WITH DEEP...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SSW FLOW...EXPECT
REGENERATIVE/BACK-BUILDING ACTIVITY TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. WHILE
THIS CONVECTION OCCASIONALLY WILL ORIENT INTO BROKEN BANDS PARALLEL
TO THE DEEP FLOW...WEAK COLD POOL LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
BREAKDOWN OF THE BANDS INTO SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES. GIVEN
FRICTIONALLY AND ISALLOBARICALLY-BACKED NEAR-SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD TORNADOES AND SHORT-LIVED BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
HIGH WIND. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTN AND MAY
EXTEND E ALONG WEAK STNRY FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE FROM SRN AL E INTO
PARTS OF GA AND PERHAPS SC INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...
ISOLD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY PERIODICALLY FORM IN
CONVERGENT...MOIST SLY FLOW E OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED ACTIVITY.
THESE ALSO MAY POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS THEY
CROSS WEAK W/E FRONT.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCTD AFTN
TSTMS INVOF LEE TROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO AND WY...GIVEN
MOIST SSELY LOW LVL FLOW BENEATH MODEST /15-25 KT/ NNW MID LVL JET.
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS WEAKER THAN ON SUNDAY...WITH
NO SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OF NOTE APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY.
NEVERTHELESS...THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD INTO
UNSTABLE AIR /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS
THROUGH EARLY EVE. DESPITE MODEST MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...LARGE
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT IN THE WIND PROFILES /120-150 DEGREES IN THE
LOWEST 6 KM/ AND 30 KT DEEP NNWLY SHEAR SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND...AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.

...NEW ENG/LONG ISLAND...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH WILL MOVE SE ACROSS
ERN AND SRN NEW ENG TODAY. ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG FRONT SHOULD
BE REPLACED BY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT AND SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OVER SRN NEW ENG AND LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTN. ISOLD
SVR WIND/HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS BEFORE THEY MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER IN THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND MODEST PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY...ANOTHER FACTOR
OFFSETTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT WILL BE THE INITIALLY WEAK
DEEP SHEAR.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/25/2008

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KMOB [251236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 251236
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
736 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM TSTM WND DMG HIGHLAND HOME 31.95N 86.31W
08/25/2008 CRENSHAW AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN

&&

$$

GARYB

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 863

WWUS20 KWNS 251235
SEL3
SPC WW 251235
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-252000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 863
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
730 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF ALABAMA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WESTERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 730 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 862. WATCH NUMBER 862 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
730 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS/BANDS OF TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING IN
ERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION OF T.D. KAY AS THAT SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NEWD FROM S CNTRL MS. MODERATE...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SSW
FLOW AND SATURATED PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR REGENERATIVE LINE
SEGMENTS. EMBEDDED SUSTAINED CELLS/SMALL BOWS WILL POSE A THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND ISOLD TORNADOES GIVEN RICH LOW LVL
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE ENHANCED WHERE N OR
NNE-MOVING STORMS CROSS WEAK W/E SFC WIND SHIFT LINE OVER SRN/CNTRL
AL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19035.

...CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2152

ACUS11 KWNS 250935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250934
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-251100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0434 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 862...

VALID 250934Z - 251100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 862 CONTINUES.

THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMAINS CENTERED
NEAR HATTIESBURG MS...WITH LITTLE NET MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A REDEVELOPMENT NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MERIDIAN MS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN NOW AND
12-15Z...IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
IMPULSES AROUND THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION.

A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE BAND/SHEAR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
IMPULSE IS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
ALABAMA AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EMBEDDED WITHIN A
SLOW EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THIS FEATURE
LIKELY WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR SHORT-LIVED INCREASES IN LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION AND POSSIBLE TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.
RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 12Z AS IT
CONTINUES TO SHIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA. BUT...ANOTHER MAY
DEVELOP/SPREAD FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE ...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IMPULSE.

WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AWAY FROM THE SURFACE LOW CENTER...AND A 30-40
KT LOW-LEVEL JET CORE TO ITS IMMEDIATE EAST...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER/MID 70S DEW
POINTS...LOW- LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES IN DISCRETE CELLS WHICH MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION INTO MID MORNING.

..KERR.. 08/25/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

33258807 33238793 33048706 32758638 32118541 31588521
30948532 30718584 30638635 30368687 30148751 30458826
32598840

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250902
SWOD48
SPC AC 250901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 281200Z - 021200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NRN U.S. LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE
EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
JUST AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET. MODEL FORECASTS RETURN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS MOVING EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY FRIDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF THE MODELS HAVE THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST REASONABLY WELL...THEN A
SEVERE THREAT COULD DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE TROUGH
DRIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...CAN NOT FORECAST A SEVERE THREAT AREA DUE TO
MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 08/25/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250716
SWODY3
SPC AC 250714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN MN/WRN IA...
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 75 TO 85 KT MID-LEVEL JET CROSSES THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEDNESDAY. MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FROM MN SWWD
ACROSS IA WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE NRN END OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN MN AND WRN IA SHOW ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ASSUMING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN
INITIATE...A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 08/25/2008

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 862

WWUS20 KWNS 250615
SEL2
SPC WW 250615
ALZ000-FLZ000-CWZ000-251400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 862
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 110 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
TROY ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST
1-2 HRS FROM SW AL S AND SW INTO THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE RELATED...IN PART...TO MORE
PROGRESSIVE /EWD/ MOVEMENT THAT HAS BEEN TAKEN ON BY T.D. FAY AND
THE MID LATITUDE VORT MAX WITH WHICH IT MERGED. AS THE LARGE SCALE
CIRCULATION SYSTEM CONTINUES ENEWD...CONVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME MORE
FOCUSED IN ZONE OF RICH GULF INFLOW /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
F/...BENEATH WEAK COLD ADVECTION ALOFT ALONG THE CNTRL GULF CST.
ASSOCIATED DESTABILIZATION MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH
LOW LVL ROTATION/ISOLD TORNADOES GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW
AND FRICTIONAL/ ISALLOBARICALLY-INDUCED BACKING OF FLOW.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 19035.

...CORFIDI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250554
SWODY1
SPC AC 250553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF AL/WESTERN GA/FL
PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE YET FAIRLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME WILL
REMAIN PREVALENT OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH CENTRAL STATES TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE WILL
BE FLANKED BY RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER TROUGHS /AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONTS/ CROSSING BOTH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES /SEE HPC
TROPICAL ADVISORIES FOR LATEST DETAILS/.

...EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY WILL CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL OVER FAR SOUTHERN
MS...PERHAPS GRADUALLY EASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AL...THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF FAY...A VORT MAX IS
CONTRIBUTING TO ACTIVE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
EASTERN HALF OF FAY...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ENHANCED/MODERATELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
EASTERN MS/MUCH OF AL/WESTERN GA AND FL PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY.
ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH LIKELY TO BE AT
LEAST 200-300 M2/S2/...DIABATIC HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
MLCAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY ENHANCED ROTATING UPDRAFTS
THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
REGIME. SCENARIO WILL BE FURTHER AIDED ON THE LARGE SCALE BY A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE. WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN/FRONT RANGES OF CO/WY THIS AFTERNOON...TSTMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
/1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WINDS THROUGH THE MID
TROPOSPHERE WILL BE WEAK...STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES /120-150
DEGREES 0-6 KM/ WITH AROUND 30 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MODEST NATURE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING THE NUMBER/COVERAGE OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS PRECLUDES A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.

...NEW ENGLAND STATES...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER QUEBEC/NEW
ENGLAND...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
DAY. ONGOING SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY TODAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL AREAS. SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISK WILL EXIST WITH
THESE STORMS. ASIDE FROM THE EARLY DAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE/MODEST
PREFRONTAL INSTABILITY...OTHER NEGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT INCLUDE INITIALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

..GUYER/JEWELL.. 08/25/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250534
SWODY2
SPC AC 250532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2008

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WITH AN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN COVERAGE. THE NAM...GFS AND NAMKF ARE IN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS WITH THE MODELS
MOVING THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS BY EARLY
EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
35 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE ASSUMING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION CAN TAKE PLACE.
UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON THE
SRN END OF THE LINE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. THE EXTENT
OF SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
RETURN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY. THESE FACTORS REMAIN UNCERTAIN
ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 08/25/2008

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