SWODY1
SPC AC 251947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2008
VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
AL AND WRN GA...
...AL/GA/TN THIS AFTERNOON...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ARE MOVING SLOWLY NEWD FROM
CENTRAL/ERN MS INTO WRN AL. THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
IN SEVERAL BANDS FROM ERN AL INTO WRN GA...WELL E/NE OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN ARE LIMITING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AL...WHILE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ARE
LOCATED FARTHER E IN PROXIMITY TO THE PRIMARY OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND
ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL GA. MEANWHILE...THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR IS LOCATED WITHIN THE AREA STABILIZED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION. A FEW MINI SUPERCELLS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN AL/WRN
GA/SRN TN...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED EARLIER
TODAY.
...SW AZ/INTERIOR SRN CA THIS AFTERNOON...
A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS HAS SPREAD INLAND UP THE CO RIVER
VALLEY INTO SW AZ AND SE CA...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM JULIO IN THE GULF OF CA. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE RANGE OF 65-75 F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN AZ AND INTERIOR SRN CA. WEAK MID LEVEL ELY FLOW WILL
HELP SOME OF THE CONVECTION PROPAGATE WWD OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN IN
BOTH AZ AND CA...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...WILL LIKELY FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME SE CO INTO THE CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE.
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LOCALLY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER N...SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW ARE SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FRONT
RANGE OF CO. A FEW STORMS MAY MOVE E OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE MORE CONVECTION COULD FORM TONIGHT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEVELOPING SLY LLJ.
..THOMPSON/KIS.. 08/25/2008
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