KAPX [250245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KAPX 250245
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
944 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM SNOW PELLSTON 45.56N 84.78W
11/24/2007 M3.0 INCH EMMET MI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 130 PM.

0130 PM SNOW PETOSKEY 45.38N 84.96W
11/24/2007 M3.0 INCH EMMET MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 130 PM

0130 PM SNOW CHARLEVOIX 45.32N 85.26W
11/24/2007 M3.0 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 130 PM

0130 PM SNOW 6 W CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.59W
11/24/2007 M3.0 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 130 PM

0130 PM SNOW HARBOR SPRINGS 45.43N 84.99W
11/24/2007 M5.0 INCH EMMET MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 130 PM

0130 PM SNOW 7 N HARBOR SPRINGS 45.53N 84.99W
11/24/2007 M5.0 INCH EMMET MI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 130 PM

0219 PM SNOW CEDARVILLE 45.99N 84.36W
11/24/2007 M3.0 INCH MACKINAC MI EMERGENCY MNGR

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 2 PM

0330 PM SNOW 7 N HARBOR SPRINGS 45.53N 84.99W
11/24/2007 M6.0 INCH EMMET MI TRAINED SPOTTER

8 HOUR TOTAL THRU 330 PM. SNOWDEPTH 6 IN.

0350 PM SNOW 3 W CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.53W
11/24/2007 E5.0 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

9 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM. SNOWDEPTH 5 IN.

0350 PM SNOW 2 W CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.51W
11/24/2007 M3.0 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

9 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM. SNOWDEPTH 6 IN.

0350 PM SNOW CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.47W
11/24/2007 M2.0 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

9 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

0350 PM SNOW 2 W CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.51W
11/24/2007 M6.0 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

20 HR TOTAL THRU 4 PM. SNOWDEPTH 6 IN.

0500 PM SNOW RUDYARD 46.23N 84.60W
11/24/2007 M4.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM. SNOWDEPTH 4 IN.

&&

$$

KAS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2162

ACUS11 KWNS 250103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250103
TXZ000-250400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W TX FROM THE BIG BEND TOWARDS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 250103Z - 250400Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AROUND 1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL EXPAND NEWD FROM THE
BIG BEND/SRN PERMIAN BASIN NEWD TOWARDS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND SRN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES WILL LIKELY DIMINISH FROM
SW TO NE LATER THIS EVENING /MAINLY AFTER 03Z/ AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
SHIFTS EWD.

RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THE
PRESENCE OF HEAVY SNOW ORIENTED IN A SW TO NE BAND ACROSS MAINLY
PECOS/CRANE/UPTON COUNTIES. STRONG ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION RATES THROUGH THE COMBINATION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW OVER SONORA AND LOWER-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING/UPSLOPE FLOW. ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS W-CNTRL TX...DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW /PER 00Z MAF
RAOB/...WITH HEAVY SNOW SPREADING NEWD MAINLY BETWEEN MAF/SJT AND
BGS/ABI. 24/18Z NAM/GFS AND 24/00Z 4-KM NSSL/NMM-WRF FORECASTS ALL
APPEAR TO BE TOO SLOW AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE AXIS OF ONGOING
HEAVY PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY SIGNAL A MORE RAPID CESSATION OF HEAVY
SNOW ACROSS THE BIG BEND AREA THIS EVENING.

.GRAMS.. 11/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

32040073 31340160 30800211 30260259 30260320 30550340
30990314 31680264 32180208 32630148 33000081 32700037

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KFFC [250101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 250101
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
801 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM SLEET ROSSVILLE 34.97N 85.29W
11/24/2007 E0.00 INCH WALKER GA PUBLIC

SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN REPORTED ON MISSIONARY RIDGE IN
ROSSVILLE.

0740 PM SLEET BLAIRSVILLE 34.87N 83.95W
11/24/2007 E0.00 INCH UNION GA PUBLIC

A MIXTURE OF SLEET, SNOW, AND RAIN REPORTED ONGOING SINCE
7 PM EST.

&&

$$

SBK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250051
SWODY1
SPC AC 250048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING
ESEWD ACROSS NW MEXICO...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THIS LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EWD...REACHING TX BIG BEND REGION BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED OFF THE TX GULF
COAST /60 S GLS/ WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE NWRN
GULF TO THE S OF LA. BOTH OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL MOVE
NNEWD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE W...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...OR JUST REACH THE IMMEDIATE UPPER TX/SW LA
COASTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DEEP LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT ACROSS SRN/ERN
TX WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW RESULTING IN A MORE DIFFLUENT
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THIS REGION. ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
INCREASING WAA REGIME ALONG AXIS OF STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM TX COAST
TO ARKLATEX. THIS WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS NEWD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TX TO
THE ARKLATEX REGION OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY /400-800 J/KG/ ROOTED
ATOP A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AROUND 850-700 MB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED TSTMS WITHIN THE EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE.

.PETERS.. 11/25/2007

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KOAX [240632]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 240632
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1232 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 AM SNOW SEWARD 40.91N 97.10W
11/24/2007 E0.0 INCH SEWARD NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0.5 INCH OF SNOW

&&

$$

JREESE

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KGID [240622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 240622
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM SNOW DAMAR 39.32N 99.58W
11/23/2007 M2.0 INCH ROOKS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0950 PM SNOW OSBORNE 39.44N 98.70W
11/23/2007 E3.0 INCH OSBORNE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0950 PM SNOW PHILLIPSBURG 39.75N 99.32W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH PHILLIPS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS VERY SLICK ACROSS COUNTY

1000 PM SNOW BEAVER CITY 40.14N 99.83W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH FURNAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1004 PM SNOW BELOIT 39.47N 98.11W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH MITCHELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF COUNTY

1100 PM SNOW MANKATO 39.79N 98.21W
11/23/2007 E0.5 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

1110 PM SNOW FRANKLIN 40.10N 98.95W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH FRANKLIN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE COUNTY

1115 PM SNOW RED CLOUD 40.09N 98.52W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH WEBSTER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW SO FAR

1130 PM SNOW CLAY CENTER 40.52N 98.05W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH CLAY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1200 AM SNOW 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
11/24/2007 M0.7 INCH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.

SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.00 OSBORNE KS OSBORNE 0950 PM

2.00 FRANKLIN NE FRANKLIN 1110 PM
1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE COUNTY
2.00 BELOIT KS MITCHELL 1004 PM
1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF COUNTY
2.00 PHILLIPSBURG KS PHILLIPS 0950 PM
ROADS VERY SLICK ACROSS COUNTY
2.00 DAMAR KS ROOKS 0730 PM

1.00 CLAY CENTER NE CLAY 1130 PM

1.00 RED CLOUD NE WEBSTER 1115 PM
1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW SO FAR
1.00 BEAVER CITY NE FURNAS 1000 PM

0.70 4 N HASTINGS NE ADAMS 1200 AM

0.50 MANKATO KS JEWELL 1100 PM

$$

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KGID [240621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 240621
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1221 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM SNOW DAMAR 39.32N 99.58W
11/23/2007 M2.0 INCH ROOKS KS CO-OP OBSERVER

0950 PM SNOW OSBORNE 39.44N 98.70W
11/23/2007 E3.0 INCH OSBORNE KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0950 PM SNOW PHILLIPSBURG 39.75N 99.32W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH PHILLIPS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS VERY SLICK ACROSS COUNTY

1000 PM SNOW BEAVER CITY 40.14N 99.83W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH FURNAS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1004 PM SNOW BELOIT 39.47N 98.11W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH MITCHELL KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF COUNTY

1100 PM SNOW MANKATO 39.79N 98.21W
11/23/2007 E0.5 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

1110 PM SNOW FRANKLIN 40.10N 98.95W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH FRANKLIN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE COUNTY

1115 PM SNOW RED CLOUD 40.09N 98.52W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH WEBSTER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW SO FAR

1130 PM SNOW CLAY CENTER 40.52N 98.05W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH CLAY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1200 AM SNOW 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
11/24/2007 M0.7 INCH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

FAY

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KGID [240616]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 240616
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1216 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM SNOW CLAY CENTER 40.52N 98.05W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH CLAY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1200 AM SNOW 4 N HASTINGS 40.65N 98.39W
11/24/2007 M0.7 INCH ADAMS NE OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KICT [240613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 240613
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1213 AM CST SAT NOV 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1211 AM SNOW CHASE 38.36N 98.35W
11/24/2007 E2.5 INCH RICE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 2 TO 2.5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGHWAY 56 BETWEEN GREAT BEND AND LYONS IS
SNOW PACKED.

&&

$$

ADK

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KABQ [240608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 240608
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1108 PM MST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1026 PM SNOW 5 W MOUNTAINAIR 34.52N 106.33W
11/23/2007 M3.4 INCH TORRANCE NM TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO NEW INCHES SINCE SINCE THIS MORNING.

1032 PM SNOW 5 ESE SANDIA PARK 35.14N 106.28W
11/23/2007 M4.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 PM SNOW ROSWELL 33.37N 104.53W
11/23/2007 M3.8 INCH CHAVES NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1102 PM SNOW CLAYTON 36.45N 103.18W
11/23/2007 M1.1 INCH UNION NM CO-OP OBSERVER

ADDITIONAL 0.1 INCH SINCE 5 PM.

&&

$$

DPORTER

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KTOP [240548]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 240548
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1148 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM SNOW CONCORDIA 39.57N 97.66W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH CLOUD KS CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JW

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KPUB [240537]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 240537
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM SNOW MAYSVILLE 38.54N 106.22W
11/23/2007 M4.7 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

2.1 INCHES OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS WITH STORM TOTAL OF 4.7
INCHES

&&

$$

MW

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240534
SWODY2
SPC AC 240532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

..SYNOPSIS...

DYNAMIC...UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING
WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX DURING THE DAY TWO
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN W. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SLIGHT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN
TRACK OF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING
GENERALLY NNEWD FROM OFF THE MOUTH OF THE SABINE RIVER TO E-CNTRL LA
BY 26/00Z AND WRN KY BY 26/12Z. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH ERN LA AND MS INTO WRN AL BY MONDAY MORNING.

..LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES...

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION OF SLY LLJ SUNDAY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THIS
FEATURE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NNEWD
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE A RAPID INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE NWD THROUGH LA AND MS WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING
THROUGH THE 60S...NAMELY S OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.

PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES INTO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL LIMIT THE NEWD EXPANSION OF SYSTEM WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING IN A N-S AXIS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST /6.5-7.0 C PER KM/ WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MLCAPES TO AOB 500 J/KG OVER NRN PORTIONS OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA TO 1000-1500 J/KG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.

TSTMS /MOSTLY ELEVATED/ WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME TO THE N OF
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY
MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME AS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR EXPANDS N/NEWD
INLAND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN WARM
SECTOR INDICATE THAT BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IT APPEARS THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST S OF I-20 ACROSS
S-CNTRL/SERN LA AND SRN MS WHERE A MOIST...UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL COEXIST WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. THE DAMAGING WIND
AND TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING
THROUGH MS INTO WRN AL.

.MEAD.. 11/24/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240527
SWODY1
SPC AC 240524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
THE SHARP UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST IS BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN...AS A SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTAL AREAS. AND...MODELS
INDICATE THAT THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...AS THE IMPULSE PROGRESSES INLAND ACROSS THE
CANADIAN/NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...A MORE COMPLEX BUT
LESS AMPLIFIED SPLIT UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE.

STABLE...CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR...ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM...HAS INFILTRATED MUCH OF
THE NATION. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF
THE PROMINENT SURFACE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MODELS INDICATE
THAT ANOTHER WEAKER SURFACE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE WEAKENING LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...NOW EVOLVING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU...REMAINS PROGRESSIVE...AND SLOWLY
APPROACHES THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROBABLY BECOME A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING...WEAK DESTABILIZATION...AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SEEMS LIKELY TO NEGATE ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z SUNDAY.

..TEXAS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...
WARMING/MOISTENING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION...AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL THOUGH EASTERN TEXAS
BY DAYBREAK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN LIKELY DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...AS MID/UPPER FORCING... ENHANCED BY THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK...BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH OF BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.

MODELS ARE THEN SUGGESTIVE THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMANATING
FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU... AHEAD OF MAIN
CLOSED LOW...WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER WAVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY.

DESPITE THE RATHER HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...THE
ANTICIPATED ELEVATED NATURE ABOVE A SHARP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LAYER
APPEARS TO PRECLUDE THE RISK OF TORNADOES/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...EVEN
ALONG MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. AND...WEAK CAPE ...GENERALLY
ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR LESS...SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...MINIMIZING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL.

.KERR.. 11/24/2007

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KGID [240522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 240522
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1121 PM CST FRI NOV 23 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM SNOW MANKATO 39.79N 98.21W
11/23/2007 E0.5 INCH JEWELL KS PUBLIC

1110 PM SNOW FRANKLIN 40.10N 98.95W
11/23/2007 E2.0 INCH FRANKLIN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE COUNTY

1115 PM SNOW RED CLOUD 40.09N 98.52W
11/23/2007 E1.0 INCH WEBSTER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

1/2 TO 1 INCH OF SNOW SO FAR

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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