DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210036
SWODY1
SPC AC 210034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
THROUGH THE WRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH WEAKER...LOWER LATITUDE
IMPULSES TRANSLATING MORE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND TX. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN MO IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEWD INTO NRN IND OVERNIGHT WITH TRAILING...STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING SEWD/SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS.

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SERN TX
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS ONGOING AS OF 00Z JUST S/SW OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITHIN A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS PER
00Z CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD
INTO S TX OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ABOVEMENTIONED IMPULSES
TRANSLATING NEWD.

ELSEWHERE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN IMMEDIATE
WAKE OF COLD FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AS
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1200 J/KG...NAMELY FROM
THE OZARKS SWWD...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.MEAD.. 11/21/2007

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KBYZ [210036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 210036
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
533 PM MST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 11 ESE CHICO 45.25N 110.50W
11/19/2007 E10.0 INCH PARK MT MESONET

PLACER BASIN SNOTEL

0800 AM SNOW 2 N RED LODGE 45.22N 109.25W
11/19/2007 E12.0 INCH CARBON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 4 E ROSCOE 45.35N 109.42W
11/19/2007 E13.0 INCH CARBON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW JUDITH GAP 46.68N 109.75W
11/19/2007 M12.0 INCH WHEATLAND MT CO-OP OBSERVER

1100 PM SNOW 4 NE MARTINSDALE 46.50N 110.26W
11/19/2007 M8.0 INCH WHEATLAND MT MESONET

SOUTH FORK SHIELDS SNOTEL

0700 AM SNOW 11 N MARTINSDALE 46.60N 110.28W
11/20/2007 M9.0 INCH WHEATLAND MT MESONET

PORCUPINE SNOTEL

0700 AM SNOW BIG TIMBER 45.83N 109.95W
11/20/2007 M10.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 8 ENE WILSALL 46.04N 110.51W
11/20/2007 M9.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW JUDITH GAP 46.68N 109.75W
11/20/2007 M12.0 INCH WHEATLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW HARLOWTON 46.44N 109.83W
11/20/2007 M7.0 INCH WHEATLAND MT PUBLIC

1000 AM SNOW PRAY 45.38N 110.68W
11/20/2007 M8.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM SNOW 11 NW SILVER GATE 45.13N 110.14W
11/20/2007 M9.0 INCH PARK MT MESONET

MONUMENT PEAK SNOTEL

1000 AM SNOW 3 S WASHOE 45.11N 109.20W
11/20/2007 M16.0 INCH CARBON MT MESONET

COLE CREEK SNOTEL

1100 AM SNOW 4 SSW RED LODGE 45.14N 109.27W
11/20/2007 M16.0 INCH CARBON MT MESONET

BURNT MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

&&

$$

ALBERTR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201938
SWODY1
SPC AC 201935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AT MID-DAY STRONG COLD FRONT CENTRAL PLAINS WWD INTO CENTRAL CO/UT
CONTINUES TO PUSH S/SEWD. THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HAVE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECT ON ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

CONTINUED S/SWLY FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE
TEMPS TO NEAR 80F. WITH THE AID OF WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SRN
BRANCH IMPULSE NOW MOVING FROM NRN MEX INTO TX ALONG WITH MUCAPES
UPWARD TO 1500 J/KG CENTRAL TX...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN TX
LIMITED SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM FAVOR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP REMAINING BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

OVERNIGHT MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING ASCENT ACROSS FRONTAL ZONE NEWD
THRU WRN OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MI. PCPN INCLUDING EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE BEGINNING BY THIS
EVENING FROM NRN MO NEWD ACROSS NRN IL AND THEN INTO MI TONIGHT
ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONTAL ZONE.

.HALES.. 11/20/2007

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KMFR [201903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KMFR 201903
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1103 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0939 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E SIXES 42.81N 124.42W
11/16/2007 M1.25 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

0253 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE PORT ORFORD 42.74N 124.48W
11/16/2007 M3.00 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

0446 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COOS BAY 43.37N 124.22W
11/16/2007 M1.52 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 TOTAL ENDING AT 430 PM

0446 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N HAPPY CAMP 41.80N 123.38W
11/16/2007 M0.30 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 4 PM

0940 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/16/2007 M1.62 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL 9PM PST THURSDAY TO 9PM PST FRIDAY. LOCATED
ALONG THE COOS RIVER.

0517 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/17/2007 M2.64 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

5AM TO 5AM. WIND SOUTH 30 TO 40 MPH AT 5AM.

0739 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/17/2007 M2.31 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7PM TO 7AM.

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN N ELKTON 43.63N 123.57W
11/17/2007 M1.50 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

THIS IS A 13 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 8AM.

0925 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COQUILLE 43.18N 124.16W
11/17/2007 M2.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM. ALSO REPORTED 2.70 INCHES
OF RAIN IN A 30 HOUR PERIOD.

0925 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE MYRTLE POINT 43.07N 124.10W
11/17/2007 M1.95 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

15 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM

0925 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE BANDON 43.12N 124.40W
11/17/2007 M1.81 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 830 AM

0951 AM HEAVY RAIN SSW PORT ORFORD 42.75N 124.50W
11/17/2007 M2.02 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 930 AM

1151 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E SIXES 42.81N 124.42W
11/17/2007 M3.10 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 7 AM

0628 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SCOTTSBURG 43.67N 123.81W
11/17/2007 M2.12 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

4PM TO 4PM

0628 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/17/2007 M1.06 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE MIDNIGHT

0753 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/17/2007 M2.19 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7AM-7PM

0908 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/17/2007 M1.71 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNT, 9PM FRIDAY TO 9PM SATURDAY. 2
DAY, 48 HOUR TOTAL OF 3.33 INCHES. LOCATION IS ALONG THE
COOS RIVER.

0925 PM HEAVY RAIN N BANDON 43.11N 124.41W
11/17/2007 M3.28 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL, 9PM FRIDAY THROUGH 9PM SATURDAY.
MEASUREMENT WAS TAKEN AT THE HARVARD STREET APARTMENTS.
FOR THE CALENDER DAY, 2.85 INCHES HAS BEEN OBSERVED THUS
FAR.

0927 PM HEAVY RAIN N BANDON 43.11N 124.41W
11/17/2007 M2.13 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL MEASURED FROM 9PM FRIDAY THROUGH 9PM
SATURDAY AT FIRST BAPTIST CHURCH IN BANDON.

0516 AM HEAVY RAIN N KENO 42.13N 121.93W
11/18/2007 M0.25 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 630 AM

0516 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/18/2007 M2.68 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 5AM

0735 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/18/2007 M1.80 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING AT 7AM.

0229 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE BANDON 43.14N 124.37W
11/18/2007 E1.20 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL FROM 7AM TO 2PM.

0241 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N COOS BAY 43.41N 124.22W
11/18/2007 M1.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 1 PM

0241 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNW SITKUM 43.18N 123.87W
11/18/2007 M1.10 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 1 PM

0241 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 E SIXES 42.81N 124.42W
11/18/2007 M2.50 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM

0417 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COOS BAY 43.37N 124.22W
11/18/2007 M2.00 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 4 PM

0454 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SCOTTSBURG 43.67N 123.81W
11/18/2007 M1.70 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR 4PM-4PM

0524 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 NNE POWERS 42.99N 124.01W
11/18/2007 M1.95 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR ENDING 5PM

0609 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COOS BAY 43.38N 124.24W
11/18/2007 M1.75 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24HR ENDING 6PM

0736 PM HEAVY RAIN N ELKTON 43.63N 123.57W
11/18/2007 M2.11 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR ENDING 1930 PST

0810 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE COOS BAY 43.34N 124.21W
11/18/2007 M2.22 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FROM 8AM SUNDAY THROUGH 8PM
SUNDAY. STILL RAINING AT THIS TIME.

0850 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
11/18/2007 M2.87 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT 9PM SATURDAY THROUGH 9PM SUNDAY AT 111
FEET ELEVATION ALONG THE COOS RIVER. 72 HOUR TOTAL 6.20
INCHES.

0859 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE GOLD BEACH 42.44N 124.39W
11/18/2007 M2.75 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

2.75 INCHES IN 24 HOURS

0859 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 N ROSEBURG 43.28N 123.35W
11/18/2007 E0.90 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

.90 INCHES IN 12 HOURS

0903 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N COOS BAY 43.41N 124.22W
11/18/2007 M2.60 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. LOCATION IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF
COOS BAY, ACROSS FROM NORTH BEND.

0903 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW ROSEBURG 43.16N 123.39W
11/18/2007 M0.87 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL, 7AM THROUGH 7PM. 500FT ELEVATION.

1018 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE RIDDLE 42.93N 123.33W
11/18/2007 M1.54 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

1.54 INCHES IN 24 HOURS

1018 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ROSEBURG 43.23N 123.36W
11/18/2007 M1.44 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL FROM 10PM SATURDAY THROUGH 10PM SUNDAY.

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COQUILLE 43.18N 124.16W
11/19/2007 M3.10 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING MIDNIGHT.

0539 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
11/19/2007 M2.68 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 5AM

0617 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE ROSEBURG 43.20N 123.33W
11/19/2007 M1.57 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

23 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 6AM

0649 AM HEAVY RAIN N MYRTLE POINT 43.06N 124.14W
11/19/2007 M2.43 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 630AM

0709 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE WINSTON 43.08N 123.34W
11/19/2007 M1.75 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 7AM

0716 AM HEAVY RAIN N BANDON 43.11N 124.41W
11/19/2007 M2.57 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 7AM

0729 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW REEDSPORT 43.68N 124.19W
11/19/2007 M1.96 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 730AM

0738 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE BANDON 43.12N 124.40W
11/19/2007 M2.35 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 730AM

0742 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SW RIDDLE 42.94N 123.39W
11/19/2007 M1.57 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING 8AM.

0750 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSW ROSEBURG 43.16N 123.39W
11/19/2007 M0.93 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 7AM

0757 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N COOS BAY 43.41N 124.22W
11/19/2007 M2.75 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM.

0806 AM HEAVY RAIN N TENNANT 41.59N 121.91W
11/19/2007 E3.00 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

4 HOUR ACCUMULATION

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW MEDFORD 42.30N 122.92W
11/19/2007 M0.96 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

10 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE ROSEBURG 43.20N 123.33W
11/19/2007 M1.56 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 830 AM

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N ROSEBURG 43.21N 123.34W
11/19/2007 M1.50 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM

0852 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E SIXES 42.81N 124.42W
11/19/2007 M3.25 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 AM

0928 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE SELMA 42.34N 123.57W
11/19/2007 M2.36 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

8AM SATURDAY TO 8AM MONDAY.

1122 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W ROSEBURG 43.23N 123.42W
11/19/2007 M1.50 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR AMOUNT ENDING 11AM.

0402 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE SELMA 42.30N 123.59W
11/19/2007 M1.60 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

4PM TO 4PM.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KTFX [201802]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 201802
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1102 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HEAVY SNOW 19 W WHITE SULPHUR SPRI 46.55N 111.30W
11/20/2007 M9.0 INCH MEAGHER MT MESONET

12 HOUR SNOW AMOUNT...BOULDER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL ON
MEAGHER-BROADWATER COUNTY BORDER

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KTFX [201753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 201753
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1052 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 N DILLON 45.26N 112.63W
11/20/2007 M7.0 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0820 AM HEAVY SNOW WEST YELLOWSTONE 44.66N 111.11W
11/20/2007 M11.0 INCH GALLATIN MT PARK/FOREST SRVC

LIGHT SNOW AT 820 AM MST.

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KUNR [201750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 201750
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1050 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1014 AM SNOW 15 NNE RECLUSE 44.95N 105.64W
11/20/2007 E2.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATES 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW

1016 AM SNOW 1 N GILLETTE 44.28N 105.49W
11/20/2007 E1.0 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL MODERATE SNOW.

1018 AM SNOW 1 N DEVILS TOWER 44.58N 104.71W
11/20/2007 E1.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1020 AM SNOW N SUNDANCE 44.40N 104.38W
11/20/2007 E5.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1024 AM SNOW 2 WNW SUNDANCE 44.42N 104.41W
11/20/2007 E4.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1027 AM SNOW 3 ESE ALADDIN 44.62N 104.12W
11/20/2007 E3.5 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL MODERATE SNOW WITH 3 TO 4 INCHES ON THE GROUND.

1028 AM NON-TSTM WND GST N COLONY 44.87N 104.15W
11/20/2007 E1 MPH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1030 AM SNOW 1 N NEW HAVEN 44.76N 104.85W
11/20/2007 E2.0 INCH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1032 AM SNOW 2 ENE WESTON 44.64N 105.30W
11/20/2007 E0.5 INCH CAMPBELL WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1015 AM SNOW 4 S MILESVILLE 44.40N 101.69W
11/20/2007 E0.5 INCH HAAKON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1017 AM SNOW N HOWES 44.62N 102.05W
11/20/2007 E0.5 INCH MEADE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF INCH ON GRASS.

1020 AM SNOW N STURGIS 44.41N 103.52W
11/20/2007 E3.0 INCH MEADE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

1023 AM SNOW 5 W SPEARFISH 44.50N 103.96W
11/20/2007 E4.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING.

1026 AM SNOW 2 WSW DEADWOOD 44.37N 103.77W
11/20/2007 E2.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING.

1030 AM SNOW NE DEADWOOD 44.38N 103.72W
11/20/2007 E3.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL SNOWING.

1032 AM SNOW 10 SSE DEADWOOD 44.24N 103.67W
11/20/2007 E2.0 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

1035 AM SNOW 1 N SPEARFISH 44.51N 103.87W
11/20/2007 E2.5 INCH LAWRENCE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MSMITH

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KBRO [201742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 201742
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1142 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TORNADO 2 SE LYFORD 26.39N 97.77W
11/19/2007 WILLACY TX PUBLIC

RESIDENT FIRST NOTICED A TORNADO OVER AN OPEN FIELD
APPROXIMATELY 1-2 MILES EAST OF U.S. 77 JUST SOUTH OF FM
491. TORNADO MOVED WEST TOWARD U.S. 77 AND LIFTED WHEN IT
REACHED THE HIGHWAY. THE FUNNEL DISSIPATED SOON AFTER.
ESTIMATED DURATION ON THE GROUND WAS 3-5 MINUTES. INITIAL
REPORT AND VIDEO RECEIVED VIA LOCAL BROADCAST MEDIA. NO
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

BMILLER

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KTFX [201741]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 201741
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1041 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 S BOZEMAN 45.63N 111.04W
11/20/2007 M7.0 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KTFX [201735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 201735
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1035 AM MST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1023 AM HEAVY SNOW 12 E TOWNSEND 46.32N 111.27W
11/20/2007 M8.0 INCH BROADWATER MT PARK/FOREST SRVC

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201718
SWODY2
SPC AC 201716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE COLD TROUGH SHIFTS EWD INTO MIDDLE OF THE CONUS WED WITH A
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL JET FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID
MS VALLEY.

STRONG COLD FRONT BY 12Z WED WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS MID MS VALLEY
SWWD THRU CENTRAL OK TO SERN NM. FRONT PLUNGES RAPIDLY SWD THRU TX
REACHING THE COAST BY 06Z. FRONTAL MOVEMENT FURTHER E WILL BE
SOMEWHAT SLOWER INITIALLY AS A WAVE DEVELOPS SERN MO REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT PICKS UP SPEED OVERNIGHT
AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NEWD ACROSS PA BY 12Z THU.

WITH THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS AND JET DYNAMICS REMAINING
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE
PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY.

..TN VALLEY SWWD INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL HAVE SPREAD FROM SRN PLAINS NEWD
ACROSS MS VALLEY INTO TN AND SRN OH VALLEYS S OF OH RIVER BY WED AM.
WITH LOW/MID 60F DEWPOINTS SPREADING AS FAR N AS WRN TN/KY AHEAD OF
FRONT DURING THE DAY INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. AS THE WIND FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS STEADILY INCREASE
WITH APPROACH OF TROUGH AND MID/UPPER JET...STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. WHILE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY 40KTS OR LESS IN THE
WARM SECTOR...MLCAPES TO NEAR 1000 J/KG COUPLED WITH LOW LFC'S AND
20-25KT OF SFC-1KM SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY
SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.

INITIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MID MS/WRN TN VALLEY AREA IN
REGION OF STRONGEST ASCENT AND SHEAR FIRST PART OF FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL THEN DEVELOP E AHEAD
OF FRONT FROM OH RIVER SWD THRU THE EVENING.

FURTHER S INTO ERN TX...WHERE DEWPOINTS TO NEAR 70F AND STRONGER
HEATING IS EXPECTED THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES AOA 2000 J/KG. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE WEAKER SRN PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK...THE COMBINATION OF
GREATER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. 20-25KT OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR NOTED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM ERN TX INTO CENTRAL MS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SUGGEST ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS.

.HALES.. 11/20/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201605
SWODY1
SPC AC 201602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1002 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

COLD TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
RISING HEIGHTS ERN U.S. LEADING TO AN INCREASING SWLY FLOW MIDDLE OF
THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH PRECEEDED BY
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR MOVING NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY.

WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS TX INTO LWR MS
VALLEY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG UPSTREAM SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN WARM SECTOR TODAY WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN
THE GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND THE UPPER SUPPORT WITH THE
ROCKIES TROUGH REMAINING MAINLY ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT.

ISOLD/SCTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN/ERN TX
INTO LA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING WITH
MEXICAN TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION DURING MAX HEATING.

ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM TONIGHT IN ANAFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM
CNTRL/SRN MI SW INTO THE OZARKS AND POSSIBLY NE OK. OTHER
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER AR ON
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ASCENT.

.HALES/BOTHWELL.. 11/20/2007

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KPDT [201344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KPDT 201344
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
544 AM PST TUE NOV 20 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 W MAUPIN 45.17N 121.31W
11/18/2007 M4.0 INCH WASCO OR PUBLIC

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW 1 1/2 MILES WEST OF WALTERS CORNER
ALONG HWY 216. ELEVATION OF 2100 FEET.

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 NW WARM SPRINGS 44.88N 121.44W
11/18/2007 M4.0 INCH WASCO OR PUBLIC

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW 1 1/2 MILES WEST OF HWY 26 AT AN
ELEVATION OF 2700 FEET.

0420 PM SNOW 12 SSE ELLENSBURG 46.84N 120.45W
11/18/2007 E1.0 INCH KITTITAS WA PUBLIC

1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND
STILL SNOWING AT 31F ON INTERSTATE-82 AT NORTH UMTANUM
RIDGE.

0537 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SW MAUPIN 45.06N 121.24W
11/18/2007 M4.5 INCH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWING CONTINUOUSLY SINCE 9 AM. 4 1/2 INCHES OF HEAVY,
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION AND STILL SNOWING.

0610 PM HEAVY SNOW 13 NE WHITE SALMON 45.86N 121.29W
11/18/2007 M4.8 INCH KLICKITAT WA PUBLIC

4 3/4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE MADRAS 44.65N 121.10W
11/18/2007 M0.60 INCH JEFFERSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0.60 INCH OF RAIN SINCE 7 AM. RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW FOR A
WHILE AT 11 AM.

0838 PM SNOW 11 WNW MAUPIN 45.24N 121.29W
11/18/2007 M2.0 INCH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON GROUND AND STILL SNOWING AT 29F
AT AN ELEVATION OF 1850 FEET. IT WAS A COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND RAIN AT 8 AM. SNOW BEGAN AT 11 AM.

1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 NW NACHES 46.87N 120.91W
11/18/2007 M4.5 INCH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

4 1/2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT AN ELEVATION OF 2600 FEET.

1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 ENE PINE GROVE 45.13N 121.26W
11/18/2007 E5.5 INCH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATION 2100 FT.

1010 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW WARM SPRINGS 44.75N 121.31W
11/18/2007 M0.71 INCH JEFFERSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0.71 INCH OF RAIN SINCE 930 AM TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR A TRACE OF SNOW AROUND NOON. A TOTAL OF 1.58
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW BEGAN AT 10
PM.

0316 AM HEAVY SNOW CONDON 45.24N 120.18W
11/19/2007 E4.0 INCH GILLIAM OR PUBLIC

FOUR INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.

0527 AM SNOW 2 E MEACHAM 45.50N 118.37W
11/19/2007 M5.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FIVE INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 8 PM.

0638 AM HEAVY SNOW 30 W MAUPIN 45.17N 121.70W
11/19/2007 M12.0 INCH WASCO OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

12 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AT BLUE BOX PASS.
ELEVATION 4025 FT.

0645 AM SNOW ATHENA 45.81N 118.49W
11/19/2007 M2.2 INCH UMATILLA OR NWS EMPLOYEE

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 1730
FT.

0648 AM SNOW FLORA 45.88N 117.30W
11/19/2007 M4.0 INCH WALLOWA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 3500
FT.

0708 AM SNOW 9 N UKIAH 45.26N 118.93W
11/19/2007 E4.0 INCH UMATILLA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AT BATTLE
MOUNTAIN SUMMIT. ELEVATION 4254 FT.

0711 AM SNOW 15 E UKIAH 45.13N 118.62W
11/19/2007 E5.0 INCH UMATILLA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 4400
FT.

0711 AM SNOW TOLLGATE 45.77N 118.08W
11/19/2007 E6.0 INCH UMATILLA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

6 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 4000 FT.

0711 AM SNOW PILOT ROCK 45.48N 118.83W
11/19/2007 M2.0 INCH UMATILLA OR NWS EMPLOYEE

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 1850
FT.

0730 AM SNOW N ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
11/19/2007 M2.0 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 3850
FT.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW CONDON 45.24N 120.18W
11/19/2007 M6.0 INCH GILLIAM OR CO-OP OBSERVER

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 2840
FT.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 S PATIT 46.08N 117.85W
11/19/2007 M8.0 INCH COLUMBIA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AT SKI
BLUEWOOD. ELEVATION 4545 FT.

0900 AM SNOW BICKLETON 45.98N 120.30W
11/19/2007 M5.2 INCH KLICKITAT WA CO-OP OBSERVER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 3015
FT.

1000 AM SNOW 2 E MEACHAM 45.50N 118.37W
11/19/2007 E7.5 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION
3820 FT.

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 S LOSTINE 45.39N 117.43W
11/19/2007 E5.5 INCH WALLOWA OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT. ELEVATION 5400 FT.

0539 AM SNOW 1 WSW MEACHAM 45.50N 118.37W
11/20/2007 M6.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. 11 INCHES OF SNOW
SINCE 8 PM SUNDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY...9 INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND.

&&

$$

MJOHNSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201252
SWODY1
SPC AC 201249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 AS TROUGH OVER THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BROADENS/DEEPENS SE ACROSS THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES AND HEIGHTS RISE ALONG THE E CST. ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN SW FLOW OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL ACCELERATE EXISTING
VORT COMPLEX NOW OVER THE GULF OF CA AND NRN MEXICO NEWD AS AN OPEN
TROUGH OVER SE TX AND THE LWR MS VLY.

AT THE SFC...LOW NOW OVER NRN KS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ENE ALONG
STALLING FRONT TO THE DET/TOL AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. TRAILING COLD
FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE SE IN WAKE OF LOW...LIKELY REACHING A
MAF/ABI/ADM/FYV/SLO/TOL LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..LWR MI SW TO E TX/LA...
SUSTAINED S TO SWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
TO SPREAD N/NE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS
INTO THE OH VLY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE LOW/MID 50S IN
IND/OH TO THE MID/UPR 60S ALONG THE TX/LA CST. POSITIVE TILT OF UPR
FLOW PATTERN WILL...HOWEVER...MAINTAIN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACROSS REGION...AND LIMIT MLCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG.

ISOLD/SCTD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SRN/ERN TX
INTO LA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH LEAD IMPULSE EJECTING WITH
MEXICAN TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION DURING MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE...
ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM TONIGHT IN ANAFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM
CNTRL/SRN MI SW INTO THE OZARKS AND POSSIBLY NE OK. OTHER
SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER AR ON
LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG 40 KT SWLY LLJ.
ANY SVR THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
ASCENT.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 11/20/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2148

ACUS11 KWNS 201036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201036
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-201500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MA...VT...NH

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201036Z - 201500Z

A 2-3 HOUR BURST OF MDT TO HVY SNOW APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF VT...NH...AND NRN MA THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY APPROACH 1
INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS BEFORE PCPN DIMINISHES IN INTENSITY
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING.

STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING SRN CANADA WAS CONTRIBUTING DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SPREADING
EAST ACROSS ERN NY EARLY TODAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SWLY 30-35KT JET
WAS TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO ERN NY. THIS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS
SFC-BASED COLD DOME RESIDING OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...ON THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONG SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES SWWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS
THE RESULTANT PLUME OF LIGHT TO MDT PCPN QUITE WELL AND SUGGESTS 3H
QPF AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10 TO 0.40 INCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AXIS OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...COINCIDING WITH STRONGEST MESOSCALE
ASCENT...EXTENDS FROM THE BERKSHIRES TO NRN VT. FURTHERMORE...MODEL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A SATURATED
ISOTHERMAL LAYER AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0C...SUGGESTING THE
PREDOMINATE PCPN-TYPE IN THIS ZONE SHOULD BE SNOW. SNOW MAY MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE SWRN FRINGE OF THE AREA OF
CONCERN...FROM PARTS OF SWRN VT AND NWRN MA...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THESE AREAS.

RAPID EWD TRANSLATION OF THE PRECIPITATION PLUME...AND A GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT WITH
TIME...SHOULD LIMIT THE PERIOD OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO NO MORE THAN
ABOUT 3H IN ANY ONE LOCATION THROUGH THIS MORNING.

.CARBIN.. 11/20/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

45167116 44577107 42577194 42237267 42407334 42967296
43437304 44167291 44697303 45007254

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200951
SWOD48
SPC AC 200951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH DAYS 6 THIS
FORECAST...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SWRN U.S. BY THE START OF DAY 5 /SAT. NOV. 24/. MODELS SHOW
THIS LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH DAY 5...WITH
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON DAY 6 /SUN. NOV. 26/...BOTH MODELS BRING THIS LOW -- AND AN
ASSOCIATED MOIST WARM SECTOR -- NWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. GIVEN
THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED ONSHORE SPREAD OF
THE WARM SECTOR NOW DEPICTED BY BOTH MODELS...CONFIDENCE IS
SUFFICIENT TO INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER MORE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER DAY 6...SO
WILL NOT EXTEND THE RISK AREA EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FOR
DAY 7.

.GOSS.. 11/20/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200824
SWODY3
SPC AC 200822

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN OVER THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...THOUGH A
SPLIT IN THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS SWD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD/SEWD
ACROSS THE SERN STATES...LIKELY CLEARING THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIE ENE-WSW ACROSS THE NRN OR
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA.

..THE SOUTHEAST...
DESPITE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WEAK LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING
SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EVENTUALLY MOVING E
OFF THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS WHILE LINGERING OVER THE FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WHILE THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER/ORGANIZED STORMS OR LINE SEGMENTS. ALONG WITH A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS SERN
GA/THE ERN CAROLINAS COULD SUPPORT A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT --
PARTICULARLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 11/20/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200657
SWODY2
SPC AC 200655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST TUE NOV 20 2007

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN
VALLEY REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY/EXPAND ACROSS THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AS THIS TROUGH EXPANDS...A COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST TO
EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS
VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TX -- WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SEWD. BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION INTO THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO.

..OH/TN/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD INVOF COLD FRONT...FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE
OZARKS. COMBINATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NEWD AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD YIELD MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION...WITH OVERALL DEGREE OF CAPE LIMITED BY FAIRLY WEAK
LAPSE RATES. NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.

WHILE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZATION...DEGREE OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG /AROUND 40 KT/...AS
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN WELL THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER/MORE PERSISTENT STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINAL
HAIL. GREATER SEVERE THREAT -- THOUGH STILL LIMITED -- COULD PROVE
TO BE ISOLATED TORNADOES...AS SLY/SSWLY BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW BENEATH
25 TO 35 KT WSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/OH VALLEY
REGION SHOULD YIELD 20 TO 30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR. WITH LOW CLOUD BASES
ALSO ANTICIPATED...THREAT APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH
WIND POTENTIAL TO INITIATE A SLIGHT RISK THIS FORECAST...CENTERED
OVER THE MID SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION.

.GOSS.. 11/20/2007

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KPDT [200647]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KPDT 200647
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1047 PM PST MON NOV 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 W MAUPIN 45.17N 121.31W
11/18/2007 M4.0 INCH WASCO OR PUBLIC

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW 1 1/2 MILES WEST OF WALTERS CORNER
ALONG HWY 216. ELEVATION OF 2100 FEET.

0400 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 NW WARM SPRINGS 44.88N 121.44W
11/18/2007 M4.0 INCH WASCO OR PUBLIC

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW 1 1/2 MILES WEST OF HWY 26 AT AN
ELEVATION OF 2700 FEET.

0420 PM SNOW 12 SSE ELLENSBURG 46.84N 120.45W
11/18/2007 E1.0 INCH KITTITAS WA PUBLIC

1 INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE AND
STILL SNOWING AT 31F ON INTERSTATE-82 AT NORTH UMTANUM
RIDGE.

0537 PM HEAVY SNOW 11 SW MAUPIN 45.06N 121.24W
11/18/2007 M4.5 INCH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWING CONTINUOUSLY SINCE 9 AM. 4 1/2 INCHES OF HEAVY,
WET SNOW ACCUMULATION AND STILL SNOWING.

0610 PM HEAVY SNOW 13 NE WHITE SALMON 45.86N 121.29W
11/18/2007 M4.8 INCH KLICKITAT WA PUBLIC

4 3/4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

0830 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE MADRAS 44.65N 121.10W
11/18/2007 M0.60 INCH JEFFERSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0.60 INCH OF RAIN SINCE 7 AM. RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW FOR A
WHILE AT 11 AM.

0838 PM SNOW 11 WNW MAUPIN 45.24N 121.29W
11/18/2007 M2.0 INCH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ON GROUND AND STILL SNOWING AT 29F
AT AN ELEVATION OF 1850 FEET. IT WAS A COMBINATION OF
SNOW AND RAIN AT 8 AM. SNOW BEGAN AT 11 AM.

1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 14 NW NACHES 46.87N 120.91W
11/18/2007 M4.5 INCH YAKIMA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

4 1/2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AT AN ELEVATION OF 2600 FEET.

1000 PM HEAVY SNOW 5 ENE PINE GROVE 45.13N 121.26W
11/18/2007 E5.5 INCH WASCO OR TRAINED SPOTTER

5 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATION 2100 FT.

1010 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SW WARM SPRINGS 44.75N 121.31W
11/18/2007 M0.71 INCH JEFFERSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

0.71 INCH OF RAIN SINCE 930 AM TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW FOR A TRACE OF SNOW AROUND NOON. A TOTAL OF 1.58
INCHES OF RAIN SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW BEGAN AT 10
PM.

0316 AM HEAVY SNOW CONDON 45.24N 120.18W
11/19/2007 E4.0 INCH GILLIAM OR PUBLIC

FOUR INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST 12 HOURS.

0527 AM SNOW 2 E MEACHAM 45.50N 118.37W
11/19/2007 M5.0 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FIVE INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 8 PM.

0638 AM HEAVY SNOW 30 W MAUPIN 45.17N 121.70W
11/19/2007 M12.0 INCH WASCO OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

12 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AT BLUE BOX PASS.
ELEVATION 4025 FT.

0645 AM SNOW ATHENA 45.81N 118.49W
11/19/2007 M2.2 INCH UMATILLA OR NWS EMPLOYEE

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 1730
FT.

0648 AM SNOW FLORA 45.88N 117.30W
11/19/2007 M4.0 INCH WALLOWA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 3500
FT.

0708 AM SNOW 9 N UKIAH 45.26N 118.93W
11/19/2007 E4.0 INCH UMATILLA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AT BATTLE
MOUNTAIN SUMMIT. ELEVATION 4254 FT.

0711 AM SNOW PILOT ROCK 45.48N 118.83W
11/19/2007 M2.0 INCH UMATILLA OR NWS EMPLOYEE

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 1850
FT.

0711 AM SNOW TOLLGATE 45.77N 118.08W
11/19/2007 E6.0 INCH UMATILLA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

6 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 4000 FT.

0711 AM SNOW 15 E UKIAH 45.13N 118.62W
11/19/2007 E5.0 INCH UMATILLA OR DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 4400
FT.

0730 AM SNOW N ENTERPRISE 45.43N 117.28W
11/19/2007 M2.0 INCH WALLOWA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 3850
FT.

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW CONDON 45.24N 120.18W
11/19/2007 M6.0 INCH GILLIAM OR CO-OP OBSERVER

6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 2840
FT.

0900 AM SNOW BICKLETON 45.98N 120.30W
11/19/2007 M5.2 INCH KLICKITAT WA CO-OP OBSERVER

5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION 3015
FT.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW 17 S PATIT 46.08N 117.85W
11/19/2007 M8.0 INCH COLUMBIA WA TRAINED SPOTTER

8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING AT SKI
BLUEWOOD. ELEVATION 4545 FT.

1000 AM SNOW 2 E MEACHAM 45.50N 118.37W
11/19/2007 E7.5 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

7 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. ELEVATION
3820 FT.

1100 AM HEAVY SNOW 7 S LOSTINE 45.39N 117.43W
11/19/2007 E5.5 INCH WALLOWA OR PARK/FOREST SRVC

5.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW SINCE MIDNIGHT. ELEVATION 5400 FT.

&&

$$

APOLAN

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KGGW [200545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 200545
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1045 PM MST MON NOV 19 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW 4 ENE FLATWILLOW 46.85N 108.31W
11/19/2007 M6.0 INCH PETROLEUM MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TFJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200540
SWODY1
SPC AC 200538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST MON NOV 19 2007

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST
TO FURTHER INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSLATING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW IN THE
LOWER LATITUDES WILL RESULT IN THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF VORTICITY
MAXIMUM NOW OVER NRN MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN KS WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO
THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...AND SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
INTO SRN PLAINS.

..LOWER MI SWD TO ERN TX/LA...

SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD
OF SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM LOWER/MID 50S OVER
THE SRN GREAT LAKES TO MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE TX/LA COASTS.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MLCAPES TO AOB 500
J/KG WITHIN WARM SECTOR.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
OF SRN/ERN TX INTO LA AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING
NRN MEXICO VORTICITY MAXIMUM ACTS ON DESTABILIZING AIR MASS.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN
ANAFRONTAL FLOW REGIME FROM CNTRL/SRN MI SWWD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND
PERHAPS ERN OK/AR AS LEADING EDGE OF GREATER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS SURFACE
COLD FRONT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.MEAD/JEWELL.. 11/20/2007

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