ACUS11 KWNS 060333
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060333
LAZ000-060430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674...
VALID 060333Z - 060430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 674
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST AT
LEAST THROUGH 05Z ACROSS SERN LA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL...AND MOST OF WW 674
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE CANCELLED WELL BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME OF 07Z.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO EXTREME SERN LA. DEEP LAYER
WINDS ARE VEERING TO NWLY IN WAKE OF VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH LOWER
MS VALLEY...AND THIS SHOULD PROMOTE MOST OF ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE
BY 05Z. OVERALL INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION HAVE DECREASED LIKELY DUE
TO THE STABILIZING SFC LAYER. HOWEVER...40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION WITH ONGOING STORMS.
..DIAL.. 11/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29749050 29568966 29488902 29248897 29018940 29109092
29469206 29589098 29749050
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Monday, November 5, 2012
KCYS [060325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 060325
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
824 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 WSW WARREN AF BASE 41.08N 105.04W
11/05/2012 M51 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP226
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
824 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 WSW WARREN AF BASE 41.08N 105.04W
11/05/2012 M51 MPH LARAMIE WY MESONET
REPORTED AT MESOWEST STATION UP226
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 673
WWUS20 KWNS 060303
SEL3
SPC WW 060303
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-060300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 673 ISSUED AT 210 PM CST FOR PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA
TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
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SEL3
SPC WW 060303
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-060300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 673 ISSUED AT 210 PM CST FOR PORTIONS OF
LOUISIANA
TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
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KLIX [060226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLIX 060226
LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0812 PM MARINE TSTM WIND LAKEFRONT AIRPORT 30.04N 90.03W
11/05/2012 M48 MPH ORLEANS LA ASOS
ASOS OB AT 0816 PM 03026G41KT/03030G48MPH PEAK WIND AT
0812 PM.
&&
$$
24/RR
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LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
826 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0812 PM MARINE TSTM WIND LAKEFRONT AIRPORT 30.04N 90.03W
11/05/2012 M48 MPH ORLEANS LA ASOS
ASOS OB AT 0816 PM 03026G41KT/03030G48MPH PEAK WIND AT
0812 PM.
&&
$$
24/RR
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KJAN [060202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KJAN 060202
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0750 PM HAIL 2 S PELAHATCHIE 32.29N 89.80W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH RANKIN MS BROADCAST MEDIA
&&
$$
DL
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0750 PM HAIL 2 S PELAHATCHIE 32.29N 89.80W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH RANKIN MS BROADCAST MEDIA
&&
$$
DL
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KCYS [060158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KCYS 060158
LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
657 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N VEDAUWOO 41.23N 105.38W
11/05/2012 M56 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
REPORTED AT SNOTEL STATION CRWW4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRCYS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
657 PM MST MON NOV 5 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N VEDAUWOO 41.23N 105.38W
11/05/2012 M56 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET
REPORTED AT SNOTEL STATION CRWW4
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KJAN [060145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KJAN 060145
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM HAIL RIDGELAND 32.42N 90.13W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH MADISON MS PUBLIC
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL IN RIDGELAND
&&
$$
DL
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
745 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM HAIL RIDGELAND 32.42N 90.13W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH MADISON MS PUBLIC
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL IN RIDGELAND
&&
$$
DL
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2104
ACUS11 KWNS 060135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060135
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX...SRN LA...EXTREME SERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673...674...
VALID 060135Z - 060330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
673...674...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW674 AND
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW673.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LYING FROM S OF GULFPORT MS TO A FRONTAL INFLECTION NW OF
BATON ROUGE LA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS BAROCLINIC WITH WWD EXTENT
INTO S-CNTRL TX...WHERE IT ALIGNS WITH A NOTABLE WIND-SHIFT AXIS
THAT LEADS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
ADJACENT TO THE UPPER TX AND SWRN LA COASTS. MODIFICATIONS TO THE
LAKE CHARLES 00Z RAOB TO MITIGATE WET-BULBING EFFECTS WOULD SUGGEST
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AMIDST AROUND 60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND ACROSS REMAINING
VALID PORTIONS OF WW673. WW673 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 03Z AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO S-CNTRL/SERN LA...A RECENT
UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING
AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT ESEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING...PERHAPS REACHING THE NEW ORLEANS AREA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER WITH A 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 71 KT PER SLIDELL VWP
DATA WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY SVR WIND GUSTS. MODEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-KM AGL MAY YIELD A BRIEF TORNADO
THOUGH RELATIVELY MORE MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
..COHEN.. 11/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 30478850 29948834 29398850 28758897 28749012 29019137
29249263 29279377 28729505 28659588 28889612 29239604
29739553 30339457 30659361 30859219 30859018 30728911
30478850
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060135
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-060330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX...SRN LA...EXTREME SERN MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673...674...
VALID 060135Z - 060330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
673...674...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW674 AND
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW673.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LYING FROM S OF GULFPORT MS TO A FRONTAL INFLECTION NW OF
BATON ROUGE LA. THE BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS BAROCLINIC WITH WWD EXTENT
INTO S-CNTRL TX...WHERE IT ALIGNS WITH A NOTABLE WIND-SHIFT AXIS
THAT LEADS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN
ADJACENT TO THE UPPER TX AND SWRN LA COASTS. MODIFICATIONS TO THE
LAKE CHARLES 00Z RAOB TO MITIGATE WET-BULBING EFFECTS WOULD SUGGEST
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AMIDST AROUND 60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL/WIND ACROSS REMAINING
VALID PORTIONS OF WW673. WW673 SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 03Z AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE COAST.
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR INTO S-CNTRL/SERN LA...A RECENT
UPTICK IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR AND WEST OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT LEADING
AN UPSTREAM MID-LEVEL VORT MAX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT ESEWD
THROUGH THE EVENING...PERHAPS REACHING THE NEW ORLEANS AREA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD
LAYER WITH A 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE OF 71 KT PER SLIDELL VWP
DATA WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY SVR WIND GUSTS. MODEST
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-KM AGL MAY YIELD A BRIEF TORNADO
THOUGH RELATIVELY MORE MARGINAL BUOYANCY WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR SHOULD MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
..COHEN.. 11/06/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 30478850 29948834 29398850 28758897 28749012 29019137
29249263 29279377 28729505 28659588 28889612 29239604
29739553 30339457 30659361 30859219 30859018 30728911
30478850
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KJAN [060134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KJAN 060134
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
734 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM HAIL 5 SW FANNIN 32.37N 90.01W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH RANKIN MS NWS EMPLOYEE
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF HALF INCH HAIL IN THE HIDDEN HILLS
SUBDIVISION
&&
$$
DL
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
734 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM HAIL 5 SW FANNIN 32.37N 90.01W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH RANKIN MS NWS EMPLOYEE
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF HALF INCH HAIL IN THE HIDDEN HILLS
SUBDIVISION
&&
$$
DL
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KJAN [060122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KJAN 060122
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
721 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM HAIL RIDGELAND 32.42N 90.13W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH MADISON MS PUBLIC
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL IN RIDGELAND
&&
$$
DL
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
721 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 PM HAIL RIDGELAND 32.42N 90.13W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH MADISON MS PUBLIC
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL IN RIDGELAND
&&
$$
DL
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KJAN [060117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KJAN 060117
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0655 PM HAIL 2 S FLORA 32.51N 90.31W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH MADISON MS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
DL
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0655 PM HAIL 2 S FLORA 32.51N 90.31W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH MADISON MS TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
DL
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 060103
SWODY1
SPC AC 060102
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LA AND
EXTREME SERN TX...
...EXTREME SERN TX/SRN LA...
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SEWD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SRN LA AND
EXTREME SERN TX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LA WWD INTO
CENTRAL TX AND WILL MOVE SEWD OFF THE LA COAST IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME
FRAME. UNTIL THEN...COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SOMEWHAT
OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MUCAPE BETWEEN 500 TO
1000 J/KG THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS
WITH PRIMARILY A SVR WIND AND HAIL THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN LA IN THE VICINITY OF A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
..BUNTING.. 11/06/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 060102
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN LA AND
EXTREME SERN TX...
...EXTREME SERN TX/SRN LA...
PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SEWD-MOVING
SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SRN LA AND
EXTREME SERN TX. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LA WWD INTO
CENTRAL TX AND WILL MOVE SEWD OFF THE LA COAST IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME
FRAME. UNTIL THEN...COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SOMEWHAT
OFFSET DIURNAL COOLING AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF MUCAPE BETWEEN 500 TO
1000 J/KG THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WINDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS
WITH PRIMARILY A SVR WIND AND HAIL THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN LA IN THE VICINITY OF A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
..BUNTING.. 11/06/2012
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KLIX [060103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLIX 060103
LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0702 PM HAIL DENHAM SPRINGS 30.48N 90.96W
11/05/2012 E1.75 INCH LIVINGSTON LA BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORT RECEIEVED VIA NWSCHAT.
&&
$$
24/RR
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LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
703 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0702 PM HAIL DENHAM SPRINGS 30.48N 90.96W
11/05/2012 E1.75 INCH LIVINGSTON LA BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORT RECEIEVED VIA NWSCHAT.
&&
$$
24/RR
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KLIX [060102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLIX 060102
LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
702 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 PM HAIL 4 SE DENHAM SPRINGS 30.44N 90.91W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH LIVINGSTON LA PUBLIC
REPORT RECEIVED VIA FACEBOOK.
&&
$$
24/RR
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LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
702 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 PM HAIL 4 SE DENHAM SPRINGS 30.44N 90.91W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH LIVINGSTON LA PUBLIC
REPORT RECEIVED VIA FACEBOOK.
&&
$$
24/RR
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KLCH [060056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 060056
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0535 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
NWS VOLUNTEER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE CORNER OF
LAKE ST AND COUNTRY CLUB RD IN LAKE CHARLES
0535 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AT RIVER OAKS
APARTMENT COMPLEX ALONG NELSON RD IN LAKE CHARLES.
0550 PM HAIL 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.15N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS MARBLE SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF LAKE
CHARLES.
0540 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE CITY OF LAKE
CHARLES
0551 PM TSTM WND DMG LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS A TREE UPROOTED ON COUNTRY CLUB RD
NEAR ALBERTSONS IN LAKE CHARLES. TREE IS LEANING ON A
NEARBY BUILDING
0537 PM HAIL 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.15N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL VIA THE
SUBMIT A STORM REPORT PROGRAM.
0540 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AT
THE CORNER OF NELSON RD AND COUNTRY CLUB RD IN LAKE
CHARLES. TREES PARTIALLY STRIPPED OF LEAVES.
0542 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND POWER OUTAGES ON BIG
LAKE RD IN LAKE CHARLES
0535 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.88 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN LAKE
CHARLES.
0539 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.88 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN LAKE
CHARLES
0540 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS MARBLE SIZE HAIL IN LAKE CHARLES
0542 PM TSTM WND GST LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 M69 MPH CALCASIEU LA ASOS
LAKE CHARLES ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH.
0531 PM HAIL SULPHUR 30.23N 93.36W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG EXIT 22 IN
SULPHUR
0536 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN LAKE CHARLES
0536 PM TSTM WND GST LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E60 MPH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH IN
LAKE CHARLES
0538 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA EMERGENCY MNGR
CALCASIEU PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS MARBLE SIZE
HAIL ALONG NELSON RD IN LAKE CHARLES
0529 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
LAKE CHARLES FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON
HWY 27 AND HOUSTON RIVER RD.
0530 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WESTLAKE 30.25N 93.26W
11/05/2012 CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
RED CROSS REPORTS A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OVER WESTLAKE
0525 PM HAIL SULPHUR 30.23N 93.36W
11/05/2012 E0.88 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR SULPHUR
0540 PM TSTM WND DMG SULPHUR 30.23N 93.36W
11/05/2012 CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
HOLES IN ROOF AND SIDES OF A MOBILE HOME AT 2858 AVENDALE
ST.
0625 PM TSTM WND DMG BROUSSARD 30.15N 91.97W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAFAYETTE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND
PUBLIC SIGNS BLOWN DOWN.
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG BROUSSARD 30.15N 91.97W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA BROADCAST MEDIA
KATC REPORTS WIND DAMAGE ALONG HWY 90 AND ALBERTSONS
DRIVE IN BROUSSARD. AN 18 WHEELER WAS ALSO FLIPPED ONTO A
SIGN
0640 PM HAIL ST. MARTINVILLE 30.12N 91.83W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH ST. MARTIN LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS VIA SPOTTER NETWORK QUARTER SIZE HAIL,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN IN ST
MARTINVILLE
0645 PM TSTM WND DMG LAFAYETTE 30.22N 92.03W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAFAYETTE SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTS A CAR FLIPPED OVER
NEAR BROUSSARD.
&&
$$
DJONES
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
654 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0535 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
NWS VOLUNTEER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE CORNER OF
LAKE ST AND COUNTRY CLUB RD IN LAKE CHARLES
0535 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AT RIVER OAKS
APARTMENT COMPLEX ALONG NELSON RD IN LAKE CHARLES.
0550 PM HAIL 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.15N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS MARBLE SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF LAKE
CHARLES.
0540 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE CITY OF LAKE
CHARLES
0551 PM TSTM WND DMG LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS A TREE UPROOTED ON COUNTRY CLUB RD
NEAR ALBERTSONS IN LAKE CHARLES. TREE IS LEANING ON A
NEARBY BUILDING
0537 PM HAIL 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.15N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL VIA THE
SUBMIT A STORM REPORT PROGRAM.
0540 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AT
THE CORNER OF NELSON RD AND COUNTRY CLUB RD IN LAKE
CHARLES. TREES PARTIALLY STRIPPED OF LEAVES.
0542 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND POWER OUTAGES ON BIG
LAKE RD IN LAKE CHARLES
0535 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.88 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN LAKE
CHARLES.
0539 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.88 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN LAKE
CHARLES
0540 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS MARBLE SIZE HAIL IN LAKE CHARLES
0542 PM TSTM WND GST LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 M69 MPH CALCASIEU LA ASOS
LAKE CHARLES ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH.
0531 PM HAIL SULPHUR 30.23N 93.36W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG EXIT 22 IN
SULPHUR
0536 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN LAKE CHARLES
0536 PM TSTM WND GST LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E60 MPH CALCASIEU LA NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH IN
LAKE CHARLES
0538 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH CALCASIEU LA EMERGENCY MNGR
CALCASIEU PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS MARBLE SIZE
HAIL ALONG NELSON RD IN LAKE CHARLES
0529 PM HAIL LAKE CHARLES 30.21N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH CALCASIEU LA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
LAKE CHARLES FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON
HWY 27 AND HOUSTON RIVER RD.
0530 PM FUNNEL CLOUD WESTLAKE 30.25N 93.26W
11/05/2012 CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
RED CROSS REPORTS A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OVER WESTLAKE
0525 PM HAIL SULPHUR 30.23N 93.36W
11/05/2012 E0.88 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR SULPHUR
0540 PM TSTM WND DMG SULPHUR 30.23N 93.36W
11/05/2012 CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
HOLES IN ROOF AND SIDES OF A MOBILE HOME AT 2858 AVENDALE
ST.
0625 PM TSTM WND DMG BROUSSARD 30.15N 91.97W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAFAYETTE SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND
PUBLIC SIGNS BLOWN DOWN.
0640 PM TSTM WND DMG BROUSSARD 30.15N 91.97W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA BROADCAST MEDIA
KATC REPORTS WIND DAMAGE ALONG HWY 90 AND ALBERTSONS
DRIVE IN BROUSSARD. AN 18 WHEELER WAS ALSO FLIPPED ONTO A
SIGN
0640 PM HAIL ST. MARTINVILLE 30.12N 91.83W
11/05/2012 E1.00 INCH ST. MARTIN LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS VIA SPOTTER NETWORK QUARTER SIZE HAIL,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN IN ST
MARTINVILLE
0645 PM TSTM WND DMG LAFAYETTE 30.22N 92.03W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
LAFAYETTE SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTS A CAR FLIPPED OVER
NEAR BROUSSARD.
&&
$$
DJONES
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KLIX [060037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLIX 060037
LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0555 PM HAIL PRIDE 30.69N 90.98W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH EAST BATON ROUGE LA BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORT RECEIVED VIA NWSCHAT.
&&
$$
24/RR
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LSRLIX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
637 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0555 PM HAIL PRIDE 30.69N 90.98W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH EAST BATON ROUGE LA BROADCAST MEDIA
REPORT RECEIVED VIA NWSCHAT.
&&
$$
24/RR
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KGGW [060002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KGGW 060002
LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
502 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
11/05/2012 M67 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET
&&
$$
JB
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LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
502 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 ENE ZORTMAN 47.96N 108.31W
11/05/2012 M67 MPH PHILLIPS MT MESONET
&&
$$
JB
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2103
ACUS11 KWNS 052325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052325
LAZ000-TXZ000-060100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673...
VALID 052325Z - 060100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WITH SVR WINDS/HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS
WW 673...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS LYING WITHIN 60-75
MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW LA COAST.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DIFFUSE FRONT
TRAILING WSW OF A MESOLOW LOCATED 30 SSE ALEXANDRIA TO 50 WNW
BEAUMONT TX WITH A REMNANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FARTHER WEST INTO
S-CNTRL TX. THE STRONGEST SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES IS
APPARENT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF THE WW AREA...WHERE
ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. STORMS COULD ALSO
EVOLVE FROM THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DECK OVER E-CNTRL TX THAT
LEADS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN 60-75 MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW
LA COAST...WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN THIS AREA...THE
PRESENCE OF 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WINDS/HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED.
..COHEN.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29169276 28729768 30309768 30739274 29169276
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052325
LAZ000-TXZ000-060100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673...
VALID 052325Z - 060100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR STORMS WITH SVR WINDS/HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS
WW 673...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS LYING WITHIN 60-75
MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW LA COAST.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A DIFFUSE FRONT
TRAILING WSW OF A MESOLOW LOCATED 30 SSE ALEXANDRIA TO 50 WNW
BEAUMONT TX WITH A REMNANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FARTHER WEST INTO
S-CNTRL TX. THE STRONGEST SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE FEATURES IS
APPARENT ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF THE WW AREA...WHERE
ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. STORMS COULD ALSO
EVOLVE FROM THE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DECK OVER E-CNTRL TX THAT
LEADS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SVR
STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN 60-75 MILES OF THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE SW
LA COAST...WHERE RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S
ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN THIS AREA...THE
PRESENCE OF 45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WINDS/HAIL.
ELSEWHERE...LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED.
..COHEN.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 29169276 28729768 30309768 30739274 29169276
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KLZK [052313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLZK 052313
LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
513 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL BENTON 34.57N 92.58W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH SALINE AR TRAINED SPOTTER
MULTIPLE SPOTTERS REPORT PEA SIZED HAIL TO PENNY SIZED
HAIL IN BENTON.
&&
$$
MCLAY
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LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
513 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL BENTON 34.57N 92.58W
11/05/2012 E0.75 INCH SALINE AR TRAINED SPOTTER
MULTIPLE SPOTTERS REPORT PEA SIZED HAIL TO PENNY SIZED
HAIL IN BENTON.
&&
$$
MCLAY
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KLCH [052310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 052310
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
509 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM FUNNEL CLOUD W LAFAYETTE 30.22N 92.03W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS A FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING NEAR LAFAYETTE ON
AMBASSADOR CAFFERY RD.
&&
$$
DJONES
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
509 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 PM FUNNEL CLOUD W LAFAYETTE 30.22N 92.03W
11/05/2012 LAFAYETTE LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS A FUNNEL CLOUD SIGHTING NEAR LAFAYETTE ON
AMBASSADOR CAFFERY RD.
&&
$$
DJONES
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KLCH [052308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 052308
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0418 PM HAIL MERMENTAU 30.18N 92.58W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH JEFFERSON DAVIS LA BROADCAST MEDIA
KATC RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF MARBLE SIZE HAIL NEAR
MERMENTAU.
0413 PM HAIL 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.15N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK, DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG CAL CAM
RD.
0440 PM HAIL 1 S CROWLEY 30.20N 92.38W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH ACADIA LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK PEA SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF
CROWLEY.
&&
$$
DJONES
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
507 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0418 PM HAIL MERMENTAU 30.18N 92.58W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH JEFFERSON DAVIS LA BROADCAST MEDIA
KATC RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF MARBLE SIZE HAIL NEAR
MERMENTAU.
0413 PM HAIL 4 S LAKE CHARLES 30.15N 93.20W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH CALCASIEU LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK, DIME SIZE HAIL ALONG CAL CAM
RD.
0440 PM HAIL 1 S CROWLEY 30.20N 92.38W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH ACADIA LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTS VIA FACEBOOK PEA SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF
CROWLEY.
&&
$$
DJONES
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2102
ACUS11 KWNS 052243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052243
LAZ000-MSZ000-060015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 052243Z - 060015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
IS INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...DCVA ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS BECOMING MANIFEST AS DEEPENING CONVECTION INVOF THE
SRN-LA/SWRN-MS BORDER. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CHARACTERIZES THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE FRONT THAT LIES
FROM A MESO-LOW 30 SSE ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE GULF
WATERS SOUTH OF GULFPORT MS. LITTLE INHIBITION EXISTS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR FOR PARCELS EMANATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY NEAR THE FRONT
WHILE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIDELL VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT 51 KT OF
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM AGL
WILL YIELD SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. WEAK SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN NOTED NEAR AND ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN PER SLIDELL RADAR
DATA. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
TORNADO...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 28999003 29029082 29389171 29619223 30339264 30899241
30989152 30719032 30528982 30078912 29718879 29128893
28938950 28999003
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052243
LAZ000-MSZ000-060015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL AND SERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 052243Z - 060015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
IS INCREASING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...DCVA ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS BECOMING MANIFEST AS DEEPENING CONVECTION INVOF THE
SRN-LA/SWRN-MS BORDER. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
CHARACTERIZES THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE FRONT THAT LIES
FROM A MESO-LOW 30 SSE ALEXANDRIA TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TO THE GULF
WATERS SOUTH OF GULFPORT MS. LITTLE INHIBITION EXISTS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR FOR PARCELS EMANATING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY NEAR THE FRONT
WHILE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES. THE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING. SLIDELL VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT 51 KT OF
0-6-KM BULK SHEAR WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ABOVE 1 KM AGL
WILL YIELD SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF SVR HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. WEAK SPLITTING SUPERCELLS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN NOTED NEAR AND ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN PER SLIDELL RADAR
DATA. SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM MAY ALSO SUPPORT A
TORNADO...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 28999003 29029082 29389171 29619223 30339264 30899241
30989152 30719032 30528982 30078912 29718879 29128893
28938950 28999003
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KLZK [052150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLZK 052150
LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0324 PM HAIL 1 NW FRIENDSHIP 34.23N 93.02W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH HOT SPRING AR COCORAHS
COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED HAIL 0.625 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
&&
$$
MCLAY
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LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0324 PM HAIL 1 NW FRIENDSHIP 34.23N 93.02W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH HOT SPRING AR COCORAHS
COCORAHS OBSERVER REPORTED HAIL 0.625 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
&&
$$
MCLAY
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KLZK [052125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLZK 052125
LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM HAIL BISMARCK 34.32N 93.17W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH HOT SPRING AR PUBLIC
&&
$$
MCLAY
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LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
325 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0310 PM HAIL BISMARCK 34.32N 93.17W
11/05/2012 E0.50 INCH HOT SPRING AR PUBLIC
&&
$$
MCLAY
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KLZK [052107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLZK 052107
LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0258 PM HAIL RUSSELLVILLE 35.27N 93.14W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH POPE AR TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
MCLAY
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LSRLZK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0258 PM HAIL RUSSELLVILLE 35.27N 93.14W
11/05/2012 E0.25 INCH POPE AR TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
MCLAY
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KTFX [052052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 052052
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
152 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0118 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S FORT BELKNAP 48.30N 108.72W
11/05/2012 M60 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET
60 MPH WIND GUST AT FORT BELKNAP RAWS.
&&
$$
HOENISCH
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
152 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0118 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 S FORT BELKNAP 48.30N 108.72W
11/05/2012 M60 MPH BLAINE MT MESONET
60 MPH WIND GUST AT FORT BELKNAP RAWS.
&&
$$
HOENISCH
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KGGW [052018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KGGW 052018
LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
118 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0102 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
11/05/2012 M59.00 MPH VALLEY MT ASOS
&&
$$
JB
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LSRGGW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
118 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0102 PM NON-TSTM WND GST GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
11/05/2012 M59.00 MPH VALLEY MT ASOS
&&
$$
JB
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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 673
WWUS20 KWNS 052009
SEL3
SPC WW 052009
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-060300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHWEST
OF VICTORIA TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND
SOUTHWEST LA. THE AIR MASS IN THIS REGION HAS HEATED/DESTABILIZED
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...HART
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SEL3
SPC WW 052009
LAZ000-TXZ000-CWZ000-060300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST MON NOV 5 2012
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTHWEST
OF VICTORIA TEXAS TO 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND
SOUTHWEST LA. THE AIR MASS IN THIS REGION HAS HEATED/DESTABILIZED
WITH MUCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LOW
LEVEL WINDS...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL PROMOTE THE RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.
...HART
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 051949
SWODY1
SPC AC 051947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX TO SRN LA...
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
TX/SRN LA. MINOR WWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX. AS A
RESULT...INHIBITION HAS BEEN REMOVED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/SERN TX
AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG NARROW E-W BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS THIS REGION AND ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DARROW.. 11/05/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0944 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012/
...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX...AND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/AR/LA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 051947
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX TO SRN LA...
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
TX/SRN LA. MINOR WWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT.
STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX. AS A
RESULT...INHIBITION HAS BEEN REMOVED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/SERN TX
AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG NARROW E-W BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS THIS REGION AND ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..DARROW.. 11/05/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0944 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012/
...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX...AND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/AR/LA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.
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KTFX [051933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051933
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1233 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNE AUGUSTA 47.56N 112.34W
11/05/2012 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET
61 MPH WIND GUST AT MCBRATNY MESONET SITE.
&&
$$
HOENISCH
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1233 PM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 NNE AUGUSTA 47.56N 112.34W
11/05/2012 M61 MPH TETON MT MESONET
61 MPH WIND GUST AT MCBRATNY MESONET SITE.
&&
$$
HOENISCH
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2101
ACUS11 KWNS 051919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051919
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-052045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN TX INTO SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051919Z - 052045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THREAT PERHAPS BECOMING
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE EVOLVING CU FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA...AS A WEAK TROUGH/COOL
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS E TX. AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION ATTM...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST AS A
MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY VEERED/WLY WHICH WILL MITIGATE APPRECIABLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND
THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.
..GOSS/HART.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28359606 28539729 29279833 30239850 31199751 31799420
31479183 30779067 29729076 29279160 29479385 28779505
28359606
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051919
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-052045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN TX INTO SRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051919Z - 052045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THREAT PERHAPS BECOMING
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE EVOLVING CU FIELD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN LA...AS A WEAK TROUGH/COOL
FRONT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS E TX. AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES
ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION ATTM...THOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST AS A
MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY VEERED/WLY WHICH WILL MITIGATE APPRECIABLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL...THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION -- AND ASSOCIATED/ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND
THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.
..GOSS/HART.. 11/05/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
LAT...LON 28359606 28539729 29279833 30239850 31199751 31799420
31479183 30779067 29729076 29279160 29479385 28779505
28359606
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 051720
SWODY2
SPC AC 051719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
EXIT REGION OF FOCUSED JET MAX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF STATES
INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTEN PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM BOTH AHEAD AND WITHIN POST FRONTAL REGIME. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL TUESDAY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY
WILL BE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 11/05/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 051719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL...
EXIT REGION OF FOCUSED JET MAX WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF STATES
INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND MOISTEN PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND MARGINAL MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY WITH ANY STORMS
THAT FORM BOTH AHEAD AND WITHIN POST FRONTAL REGIME. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS FL TUESDAY IT APPEARS INSTABILITY
WILL BE INADEQUATE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..DARROW.. 11/05/2012
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KTFX [051644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051644
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
943 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
11/05/2012 M70 MPH TETON MT MESONET
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
943 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
11/05/2012 M70 MPH TETON MT MESONET
&&
$$
PN
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KHGX [051619]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KHGX 051619
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM TSTM WND DMG CONROE 30.32N 95.47W
11/03/2012 MONTGOMERY TX NEWSPAPER
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED ACROSS MULTIPLE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE CONROE AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST. ASOS AT
KCXO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 53 KNOTS AT 1548 PM CDT.
0430 PM TSTM WND DMG POINT BLANK 30.75N 95.22W
11/03/2012 SAN JACINTO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES WERE DOWNED WITH ONE TREE COLLAPSING ONTO A POWER
LINE THAT CAUSED A FIRE.
0930 AM TSTM WND DMG LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
11/04/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
WINDOW DAMAGE TO A COMMMERICAL BUILDING WITH MINOR DAMAGE
TO RESIDENTIAL HOMES. THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO THE
CORNER OF A RESIDENCE WHEN A VEHICLE WAS TURNED IN PLACE
AND STRUCK THE HOME.
&&
$$
BLOOD
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1018 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM TSTM WND DMG CONROE 30.32N 95.47W
11/03/2012 MONTGOMERY TX NEWSPAPER
TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED ACROSS MULTIPLE LOCATIONS
AROUND THE CONROE AREA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST. ASOS AT
KCXO REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 53 KNOTS AT 1548 PM CDT.
0430 PM TSTM WND DMG POINT BLANK 30.75N 95.22W
11/03/2012 SAN JACINTO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES WERE DOWNED WITH ONE TREE COLLAPSING ONTO A POWER
LINE THAT CAUSED A FIRE.
0930 AM TSTM WND DMG LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
11/04/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
WINDOW DAMAGE TO A COMMMERICAL BUILDING WITH MINOR DAMAGE
TO RESIDENTIAL HOMES. THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO THE
CORNER OF A RESIDENCE WHEN A VEHICLE WAS TURNED IN PLACE
AND STRUCK THE HOME.
&&
$$
BLOOD
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 051546
SWODY1
SPC AC 051544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...
...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX...AND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/AR/LA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.
..HART/MOSIER.. 11/05/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 051544
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...
...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX...AND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/AR/LA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.
..HART/MOSIER.. 11/05/2012
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KHGX [051501]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS54 KHGX 051501
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
901 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM TSTM WND DMG LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
11/04/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
WINDOW DAMAGE TO A COMMMERICAL BUILDING WITH MINOR DAMAGE
TO RESIDENTIAL HOMES. THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO THE
CORNER OF A RESIDENCE WHEN A VEHICLE WAS TURNED IN PLACE
AND STRUCK THE HOME.
&&
$$
BLOOD
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
901 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM TSTM WND DMG LA MARQUE 29.37N 94.99W
11/04/2012 GALVESTON TX EMERGENCY MNGR
WINDOW DAMAGE TO A COMMMERICAL BUILDING WITH MINOR DAMAGE
TO RESIDENTIAL HOMES. THERE WAS MINOR DAMAGE TO THE
CORNER OF A RESIDENCE WHEN A VEHICLE WAS TURNED IN PLACE
AND STRUCK THE HOME.
&&
$$
BLOOD
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KTFX [051459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051459
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
759 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
11/05/2012 M65 MPH TETON MT MESONET
65 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DELLWO
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
759 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0715 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 W BYNUM 47.98N 112.59W
11/05/2012 M65 MPH TETON MT MESONET
65 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DELLWO
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [051458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051458
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
758 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0712 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NNE AUGUSTA 47.60N 112.31W
11/05/2012 M70 MPH TETON MT MESONET
WINDS GUSTING TO 70 MPH NEAR AUGUSTA. WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 59 MPH.
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
758 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0712 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 9 NNE AUGUSTA 47.60N 112.31W
11/05/2012 M70 MPH TETON MT MESONET
WINDS GUSTING TO 70 MPH NEAR AUGUSTA. WINDS SUSTAINED
AT 59 MPH.
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [051457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS55 KTFX 051457
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
757 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0621 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2012 M62 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
WIND SUSTAINED AT 62 MPH...GUST TO 84 MPH.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
757 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0621 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2012 M62 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
WIND SUSTAINED AT 62 MPH...GUST TO 84 MPH.
&&
CORRECTED EVENT TIME...EVENT
$$
PN
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KTFX [051445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051445
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
744 AM MST MON NOV 5 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WSW BYNUM 47.87N 112.67W
11/05/2012 M57 MPH TETON MT MESONET
REPORTED AT RAWS STATION GSNM8
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
744 AM MST MON NOV 5 2012
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0609 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 18 WSW BYNUM 47.87N 112.67W
11/05/2012 M57 MPH TETON MT MESONET
REPORTED AT RAWS STATION GSNM8
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KTFX [051441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051441
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
740 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0621 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2012 M84 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
740 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0621 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2012 M84 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
&&
$$
PN
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KTFX [051440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051440
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
740 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
11/05/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE BROWNING AIRSTRIP
&&
$$
NJL
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
740 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW BROWNING 48.60N 113.11W
11/05/2012 M58 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
58 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE BROWNING AIRSTRIP
&&
$$
NJL
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KTFX [051436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051436
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
735 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0551 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/05/2012 M83 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
735 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0551 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/05/2012 M83 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
&&
$$
PN
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KILM [051422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KILM 051422
LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 AM EST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM HAIL MURRELLS INLET 33.55N 79.05W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH GEORGETOWN SC COCORAHS
HAIL FELL FOR TEN MINUTES.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200002
$$
VB
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LSRILM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 AM EST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM HAIL MURRELLS INLET 33.55N 79.05W
11/04/2012 E1.00 INCH GEORGETOWN SC COCORAHS
HAIL FELL FOR TEN MINUTES.
&&
EVENT NUMBER ILM1200002
$$
VB
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KTFX [051420]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051420
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
716 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0712 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2012 M62 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
WIND SUSTAINED AT 62 MPH...GUST TO 84 MPH.
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
716 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0712 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
11/05/2012 M62 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET
WIND SUSTAINED AT 62 MPH...GUST TO 84 MPH.
&&
$$
PN
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KDLH [051314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KDLH 051314
LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
714 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 AM SNOW KNIFE RIVER 46.95N 91.78W
11/05/2012 E1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
RS
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LSRDLH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
714 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0713 AM SNOW KNIFE RIVER 46.95N 91.78W
11/05/2012 E1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
RS
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 051242
SWODY1
SPC AC 051240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION REVEAL A FAST
AND WELL AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONTINENT. A STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC JET MOVING OVER WRN BC HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WRN CANADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN
CANADA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CRESTS
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN CANADA BEFORE TURNING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND FL. WHILE A NUMBER OF
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT IS A COMPACT AND STRENGTHENING
IMPULSE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
...SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST...
AHEAD OF THE COMPACT BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING
SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...A RESIDUAL/DIFFUSE FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM
NRN FL WEST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN.
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN INTO SRN LA. WHILE THIS OCCURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AR AND NRN LA WITH 12H
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M OVER THESE AREAS BY EVENING.
LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND ISOLD HAIL
POTENTIAL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM AR/NRN LA INTO MS
TODAY. HOWEVER...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST AS THE UPPER FORCING OVERSPREADS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO
SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW POSSIBLY FAVORING
SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
SUPPORTED BY THE STRENGTH AND CONTINUING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING...PERHAPS AIDING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE NERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.
..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/05/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 051240
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHEAST TX AND SRN LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DIAGNOSTIC INFORMATION REVEAL A FAST
AND WELL AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONTINENT. A STRONG NORTH
PACIFIC JET MOVING OVER WRN BC HAS ACTED TO SHIFT THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WRN CANADA TO THE NRN ROCKIES AND SRN
CANADA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW CRESTS
THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN CANADA BEFORE TURNING SOUTH ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS WHILE A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET EXISTS ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND FL. WHILE A NUMBER OF
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST...IT IS A COMPACT AND STRENGTHENING
IMPULSE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF
COAST THAT WILL DRIVE STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
...SOUTHEAST TX ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST...
AHEAD OF THE COMPACT BUT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING
SEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS...A RESIDUAL/DIFFUSE FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM
NRN FL WEST ACROSS THE NRN GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN.
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN INTO SRN LA. WHILE THIS OCCURS...LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS AR AND NRN LA WITH 12H
500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90M OVER THESE AREAS BY EVENING.
LOWERING STATIC STABILITY AND STRONG ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF
MID/UPPER JET COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS AND ISOLD HAIL
POTENTIAL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM AR/NRN LA INTO MS
TODAY. HOWEVER...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST AS THE UPPER FORCING OVERSPREADS RELATIVELY
NARROW BUT MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO
SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WNWLY FLOW. SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW POSSIBLY FAVORING
SPLITTING CELLS CAPABLE OF BOTH HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.
SUPPORTED BY THE STRENGTH AND CONTINUING AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE...ONE OR MORE FRONTAL WAVES MAY FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE EVENING...PERHAPS AIDING STORM ORGANIZATION AND
WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THIS POTENTIAL
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE NERN GULF THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY.
..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/05/2012
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KTFX [051201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 051201
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
501 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0431 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/05/2012 M76 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WIND GUST OF 76 MPH AT TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT SENSOR.
SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 MPH.
&&
$$
MPJ
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
501 AM MST MON NOV 05 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0431 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.19W
11/05/2012 M76 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
WIND GUST OF 76 MPH AT TWO MEDICINE BRIDGE DOT SENSOR.
SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 MPH.
&&
$$
MPJ
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 050751
SWOD48
SPC AC 050750
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ENTIRELY BY FRI/D5...WHILE A
LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES. A BROAD SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO FORM OVER WY AND CO ON D5...WHICH WILL INDUCE SLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S F WILL
BE AS FAR N AS ERN KS. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT/D6...WHEN A BROAD
CYCLONIC JET WILL EXTEND FROM SRN AZ/NM NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT
THE NRN PLAINS...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS WRN/NRN MN BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
INTO KS. THEN OVERNIGHT...A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM INTO
WRN OK BY D7/SUN MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ON SAT/D6...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC LOW. IN
ADDITION...DUE TO A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG SHEAR...A FEW BOWS OR LEWP STRUCTURES
COULD FORM WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE ECMWF TROUGH
CONFIGURATION APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTO THE NEB/KS AREA.
DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE SWD ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW-MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS KS AND OK. BUT GIVEN ALREADY WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND NOCTURNAL TIMING...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER SEVERE
COVERAGE WILL MEET MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR D4-8 TIME FRAME. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MANY OF THE ECHOES WILL SIMPLY TRAIN...PRODUCING
MAINLY HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LINEAR FORCING...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONFIGURATION AND TIMING CAN MAKE A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL SEVERE THREAT. PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY AREAS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO
EXPERIENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL BE FROM ERN
NEB INTO KS AND OK.
SOME THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST INTO SUN/D7 ACROSS ERN TX...AR AND LA.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 050750
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
THE ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST ENTIRELY BY FRI/D5...WHILE A
LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN STATES. A BROAD SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO FORM OVER WY AND CO ON D5...WHICH WILL INDUCE SLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S F WILL
BE AS FAR N AS ERN KS. HOWEVER...A CAPPING INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO
PRECLUDE WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH SAT/D6...WHEN A BROAD
CYCLONIC JET WILL EXTEND FROM SRN AZ/NM NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT
THE NRN PLAINS...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS WRN/NRN MN BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD
INTO KS. THEN OVERNIGHT...A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM INTO
WRN OK BY D7/SUN MORNING.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ON SAT/D6...INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC LOW. IN
ADDITION...DUE TO A COOL BOUNDARY LAYER...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
RELEGATED TO THE COLD FRONT WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY. WITH STRONG SHEAR...A FEW BOWS OR LEWP STRUCTURES
COULD FORM WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE ECMWF TROUGH
CONFIGURATION APPEARS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE INTO THE NEB/KS AREA.
DEVELOPMENT MAY CONTINUE SWD ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A
SLOW-MOVING SQUALL LINE ACROSS KS AND OK. BUT GIVEN ALREADY WEAK
INSTABILITY...AND NOCTURNAL TIMING...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER SEVERE
COVERAGE WILL MEET MINIMAL CRITERIA FOR D4-8 TIME FRAME. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT MANY OF THE ECHOES WILL SIMPLY TRAIN...PRODUCING
MAINLY HEAVY RAIN.
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND LINEAR FORCING...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONFIGURATION AND TIMING CAN MAKE A LARGE
DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL SEVERE THREAT. PREDICTABILITY ISSUES WILL
PRECLUDE ANY AREAS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE MOST LIKELY REGION TO
EXPERIENCE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND WILL BE FROM ERN
NEB INTO KS AND OK.
SOME THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST INTO SUN/D7 ACROSS ERN TX...AR AND LA.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 050544
SWODY2
SPC AC 050543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ON TUE
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC DUE TO A
PERSISTENT ERN TROUGH. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SERN STATES...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...FL...
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS FL...VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S F. WHILE SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE POOR. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE MAINLY TO THE
COLD FRONT.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 050543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ON TUE
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC DUE TO A
PERSISTENT ERN TROUGH. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SERN STATES...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...FL...
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS FL...VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S F. WHILE SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE POOR. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE MAINLY TO THE
COLD FRONT.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 050536
SWODY3
SPC AC 050535
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE ERN U.S. TROUGH EXITS AND A
DEEP SURFACE LOW AFFECTS NEW ENGLAND. TO THE W...A NEW TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS WILL BE
VOID OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WA AND OREGON STATE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HERE...A FEW WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY OCCUR.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 050535
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY AS THE ERN U.S. TROUGH EXITS AND A
DEEP SURFACE LOW AFFECTS NEW ENGLAND. TO THE W...A NEW TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. NEARLY THE ENTIRE CONUS WILL BE
VOID OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE COASTAL WATERS
OF WA AND OREGON STATE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.
HERE...A FEW WEAK CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY OCCUR.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 050535
SWODY2
SPC AC 050534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ON TUE
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC DUE TO A
PERSISTENT ERN TROUGH. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SERN STATES...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...FL...
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS FL...VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S F. WHILE SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE POOR. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE MAINLY TO THE
COLD FRONT.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 050534
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A RELATIVELY STABLE PATTERN WILL EXIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 ON TUE
WITH OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC DUE TO A
PERSISTENT ERN TROUGH. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE SERN STATES...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...FL...
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONG ACROSS FL...VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S F. WHILE SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE POOR. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY WINDS DUE MAINLY TO THE
COLD FRONT.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 050533
SWODY1
SPC AC 050532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND SRN
LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT...COMPACT PV MAX IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE SSEWD
FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX LYING OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
AND ADJACENT GULF COAST STATES WILL STEER THE PV MAX MORE TO THE E
ACROSS MS/AL TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO
CNTRL/SRN TX. AS THE PV MAX INTERACTS WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONT...A
FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN LA AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN
GULF. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT TRAILING W OF THE WAVE WILL BECOME
REINFORCED BY A COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS SURGING SWD OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
...CNTRL/SRN TX EWD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AS 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS PER 12 HOURS
RELATED TO THE PV MAX OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...STRONG
DCVA/ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERLAY THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE DIFFUSE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN LA INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL/SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SEWD/ESEWD
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE PV MAX WILL LIMIT PROSPECTS FOR A MORE
EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR TO EVOLVE. HOWEVER...THE MASS RESPONSE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL ALLOW A ZONE OF WARM/MARITIME
AIR TO BE MAINTAINED INLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DIURNAL
HEATING AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS THAT CHARACTERIZE THE WARM
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN
TX INTO SWRN LA WITH MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FARTHER E INTO SERN
LA. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN LA
WILL LIKELY OFFSET MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THERE.
WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35-50 KT AND AT LEAST SOME
COMPONENT OF DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY/FRONT...A MIX OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SVR WINDS/HAIL IS
ANTICIPATED. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA THAT COVERS PARTS OF SERN TX AND SRN LA. WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT YIELDING LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
WEAKER DEEP SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE SVR THREAT W OF THE SLIGHT-RISK
AREA...WHILE MORE LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT E OF
THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA.
..COHEN/PETERS.. 11/05/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 050532
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST SUN NOV 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND SRN
LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT...COMPACT PV MAX IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE SSEWD
FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MAX LYING OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
AND ADJACENT GULF COAST STATES WILL STEER THE PV MAX MORE TO THE E
ACROSS MS/AL TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...A DIFFUSE FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SRN PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES INTO
CNTRL/SRN TX. AS THE PV MAX INTERACTS WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONT...A
FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN LA AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN
GULF. THE FRONTAL SEGMENT TRAILING W OF THE WAVE WILL BECOME
REINFORCED BY A COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR MASS SURGING SWD OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
...CNTRL/SRN TX EWD INTO SRN SECTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
AS 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90 GEOPOTENTIAL METERS PER 12 HOURS
RELATED TO THE PV MAX OVERSPREAD THE LOWER MS VALLEY...STRONG
DCVA/ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO OVERLAY THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE DIFFUSE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SRN LA INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL/SRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY SHIFTING SEWD/ESEWD
THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE PV MAX WILL LIMIT PROSPECTS FOR A MORE
EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR TO EVOLVE. HOWEVER...THE MASS RESPONSE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE WILL ALLOW A ZONE OF WARM/MARITIME
AIR TO BE MAINTAINED INLAND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DIURNAL
HEATING AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS THAT CHARACTERIZE THE WARM
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE FROM PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN
TX INTO SWRN LA WITH MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY FARTHER E INTO SERN
LA. HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN LA
WILL LIKELY OFFSET MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THERE.
WITH 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 35-50 KT AND AT LEAST SOME
COMPONENT OF DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY/FRONT...A MIX OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SVR WINDS/HAIL IS
ANTICIPATED. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS
THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA THAT COVERS PARTS OF SERN TX AND SRN LA. WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT YIELDING LESSER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
WEAKER DEEP SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE THE SVR THREAT W OF THE SLIGHT-RISK
AREA...WHILE MORE LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT THE SVR THREAT E OF
THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA.
..COHEN/PETERS.. 11/05/2012
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