DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051949
SWODY1
SPC AC 051947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST MON NOV 05 2012

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN TX TO SRN LA...

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAIN ACROSS SERN
TX/SRN LA. MINOR WWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SLGT RISK HAS BEEN MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE
ESCARPMENT.

STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS RESULTED IN SFC TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX. AS A
RESULT...INHIBITION HAS BEEN REMOVED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/SERN TX
AHEAD OF SFC FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG NARROW E-W BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE SLOWLY
DEEPENING ACROSS THIS REGION AND ISOLATED-SCT TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..DARROW.. 11/05/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0944 AM CST MON NOV 05 2012/

...TX/LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION.
MEANWHILE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIES ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX...AND IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/AR/LA.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EAST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN LA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...WHICH WILL LIMIT LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW INTENSE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING AS THE STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE
AND DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.

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