KPSR [140432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 140432
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
932 PM MST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM HAIL MESA 33.42N 111.74W
01/13/2010 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTHEAST MESA

&&

$$

MB

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KPSR [140356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 140356
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
856 PM MST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0837 PM HAIL WITTMANN 33.78N 112.53W
01/13/2010 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140058
SWODY1
SPC AC 140056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME UPSTREAM FROM PERTURBATION NOW OVER
LOWER CO RIVER REGION. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES ESEWD ACROSS
AZ...SMALL/DOWNSTREAM UPPER CYCLONE OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL
TX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD N-CENTRAL/NE TX OVERNIGHT.
LATTER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS.

...NRN AZ...
OPTIMALLY STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESIDUAL DIURNALLY WARMED
SFC TEMPS...AND MRGL MOISTURE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO A FEW SHALLOW
TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS NW AZ...INVOF VORTICITY MAX THAT ACCOMPANIES
SWRN SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MODIFIED FGZ RAOB AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
UP TO ABOUT 50 J/KG MUCAPE AVAILABLE...LIKELY TO DIMINISH WITH
DIABATIC BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING. WHILE VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THIS REGIME SHIFTS EWD/SEWD ACROSS AZ
OVERNIGHT WILL LESSEN OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL. PROBABILITIES APPEAR
TOO LOW AND CONDITIONAL FOR GEN TSTM AREA ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2010

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KMFR [140017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 140017
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
417 PM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0417 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.18W
01/13/2010 M1.08 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 4PM TO 4PM

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KMFR [132347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132347
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
347 PM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.11N 123.58W
01/13/2010 M1.02 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KEENE

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KMFR [132020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 132020
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1220 PM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1218 PM SNOW 3 NW MOUNT SHASTA 41.35N 122.35W
01/13/2010 M1.2 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 10AM TO 10AM. 3830 FEET.

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131925
SWODY1
SPC AC 131923

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 PM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN U.S...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS CA TOWARD THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS NOW WELL INLAND IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THICKER MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM SRN NV INTO NWRN AZ.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AND SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY EXISTS
ACROSS THIS REGION TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED THUNDER OUTLOOK THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 01/13/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010/

TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CA AND WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING...WILL DIG
SEWD INTO AZ/NWRN MEXICO BY 12Z THU. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ABOUT OVER TO THE W OF SIERRAS.

IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP MUCH INSTABILITY UNDER THE DIGGING
TROUGH INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SWRN U.S. AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
INITIALLY LACKING IN MOISTURE.

WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT GENERALLY ACROSS SRN NV INTO NWRN AZ.

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KREV [131913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 131913
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1113 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM SNOW 1 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.26N 119.94W
01/13/2010 M5.0 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AFTER MIDNIGHT THIS MORNING AT
ELEVATION 6700 FEET.

0739 AM SNOW 1 WNW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.65N 118.98W
01/13/2010 M11.0 INCH MONO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT TOTAL...STILL SNOWING.

0811 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE SPANISH SPRINGS 39.65N 119.69W
01/13/2010 M0.36 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0.36 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVERNIGHT. EYEBALL ESTIMATE OF
SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5000 FEET.

0811 AM SNOW 5 N ALPINE MEADOWS 39.24N 120.21W
01/13/2010 M1.5 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT TOTAL AT ELEVATION 6650 FEET. HEAVY WET SNOW
WITH RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT.

0924 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N COLD SPRINGS VALLEY 39.68N 119.96W
01/13/2010 M0.44 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL WITH A TRACE OF SNOWFALL
REPORTED.

0944 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE CARSON CITY 39.18N 119.75W
01/13/2010 M0.66 INCH CARSON CITY NV TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL WITH A TRACE OF SNOWFALL
REPORTED.

0957 AM SNOW MOUNT ROSE SKI AREA 39.33N 119.89W
01/13/2010 M10.0 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT MOUNT ROSE SKI RESORT WITH 7
INCHES REPORTED AT THE BASE OF THE RESORT.

0958 AM SNOW 2 E INCLINE VILLAGE 39.25N 119.93W
01/13/2010 M12.0 INCH WASHOE NV PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT DIAMOND PEAK SKI RESORT.

0958 AM SNOW HEAVENLY VALLEY 38.96N 119.89W
01/13/2010 M12.0 INCH DOUGLAS NV PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT HEAVENLY LAKE TAHOE SKI
RESORT.

0959 AM HEAVY SNOW KIRKWOOD 38.70N 120.07W
01/13/2010 M24.0 INCH EL DORADO CA PUBLIC

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL AT KIRKWOOD SKI RESORT. 18 INCHES
WAS REPORTED AT THE BASE OF THE SKI RESORT.

1001 AM SNOW HOMEWOOD 39.08N 120.16W
01/13/2010 M6.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT HOMEWOOD SKI RESORT.

1002 AM SNOW ALPINE MEADOWS 39.17N 120.22W
01/13/2010 M13.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT ALPINE MEADOWS SKI RESORT. 9
INCHES WAS REPORTED AT THE BASE OF THE SKI RESORT.

1003 AM SNOW SQUAW VALLEY 39.20N 120.22W
01/13/2010 M10.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT SQUAW VALLEY USA SKI RESORT.
4 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT THE BASE OF THE RESORT AT 6200
FEET.

1004 AM SNOW NORTHSTAR 39.28N 120.12W
01/13/2010 M18.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL AT NORTHSTAR SKI RESORT WITH 9
INCHES REPORTED AT MID-MOUNTAIN.

1006 AM SNOW 2 S DONNER PEAK 39.28N 120.31W
01/13/2010 M8.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT SUGARBOWL SKI RESORT.

1016 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E SLOAT 39.87N 120.72W
01/13/2010 M1.75 INCH PLUMAS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL RECORDED AT 4200 FEET. SPOTTER ALSO
REPORTED A TRACE OF SNOWFALL.

1024 AM HEAVY RAIN BOCA RESERVOIR 39.40N 120.09W
01/13/2010 M0.75 INCH NEVADA CA CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL WITH 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL REPORTED.

1025 AM SNOW 4 W PROSSER CREEK RESER 39.37N 120.25W
01/13/2010 M4.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL AT 6500 FEET. CURRENTLY 34
DEGREES AND CLEARING SKIES.

1053 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSW SUSANVILLE 40.33N 120.60W
01/13/2010 M1.76 INCH LASSEN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION MEASURED. SPOTTER REPORTED A 24
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF 1.33 INCHES FROM 8AM 1/12/10
THROUGH 8AM 1/13/10. ELEVATION REPORTED WAS 4800 FEET.

1054 AM SNOW BRIDGEPORT 38.26N 119.22W
01/13/2010 M2.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL WITH 0.45 INCHES OF LIQUID
REPORTED.

1058 AM SNOW LEE VINING 37.96N 119.12W
01/13/2010 M2.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL WITH 0.46 INCHES OF LIQUID
REPORTED.

1059 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
01/13/2010 M9.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL WITH 1.25 INCHES OF LIQUID
REPORTED. A CURRENT SNOW DEPTH OF 21 INCHES WAS ALSO
REPORTED. ELEVATION - 7804 FEET.

1100 AM HEAVY RAIN MARKLEEVILLE 38.70N 119.78W
01/13/2010 M0.53 INCH ALPINE CA MESONET

6 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL AT ALERT SENSOR.

1102 AM HEAVY RAIN PORTOLA 39.80N 120.47W
01/13/2010 E1.02 INCH PLUMAS CA CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION REPORTED. 24 HOUR RAINFALL
REPORTED WAS 0.68 INCHES WITH 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL
REPORTED. ELEVATION - 4850 FEET.

1103 AM HEAVY RAIN SPANISH SPRINGS 39.62N 119.72W
01/13/2010 M0.40 INCH WASHOE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL AT 4488 FEET.

1110 AM HEAVY RAIN TAHOE CITY 39.17N 120.14W
01/13/2010 M0.83 INCH PLACER CA CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL WITH 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
REPORTED. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION REPORTED WAS 1.25
INCHES.

1111 AM HEAVY RAIN TRUCKEE 39.33N 120.20W
01/13/2010 M0.85 INCH NEVADA CA CO-OP OBSERVER

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTAL WITH 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL
REPORTED. STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION REPORTED WAS 0.95
INCHES.

&&

$$

MCGUIRE

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KHNX [131812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 131812
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1012 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW TENAYA LAKE SNOTEL 37.84N 119.45W
01/13/2010 E13.0 INCH MARIPOSA CA MESONET

0.98 INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURE RANGING FROM
24 TO 30 DEGREES BETWEEN 200 AM AND 700 AM AT ELEVATION
OF 8160 FEET.

0750 AM HEAVY SNOW CAMP NELSON 36.14N 118.61W
01/13/2010 M6.0 INCH TULARE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

AT PONDEROSA ABOVE CAMP NELSON DURING LAST 12 HOURS AT
ELEVATION OF AROUND 7200 FEET.

0900 AM HEAVY SNOW KAISER POINT SNOTEL 37.30N 119.10W
01/13/2010 E16.0 INCH FRESNO CA MESONET

1.08 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH TEMPERATURE RANGING
FROM 23 TO 28 DEG BETWEEN 2 AM PST AND 9 AM PST AT 9131
FT ELEVATION

&&

$$

BSO

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KMFR [131811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131811
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1010 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 ESE COOS BAY 43.33N 124.12W
01/13/2010 M1.22 INCH COOS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 9PM TO 9AM.

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KMFR [131727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131727
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE SELMA 42.34N 123.57W
01/13/2010 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 0830AM TO 0830AM

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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KMFR [131717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131717
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
917 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 AM HEAVY RAIN S ELKTON 43.63N 123.57W
01/13/2010 M1.12 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 9 AM PST.

&&

$$

DW

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131653
SWODY2
SPC AC 131652

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH TX...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL DIG DEEP
INTO MEXICO AS STRONGEST MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ON BACK SIDE OF
TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF CA. WITH TIME SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW DOES
SPREAD UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION OF THIS STRONGER FLOW IT APPEARS A PRONOUNCED LEE TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO NERN
MEXICO...WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK SFC LOW EVOLVING SOUTH OF BRO LATE.
MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO DEEP SOUTH TX RESULTING IN WEAK
BUOYANCY...MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS
GRADUAL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL AS LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE....ALTHOUGH INCREASING SHEAR PROFILES AND SFC DEW POINTS
RISING TO NEAR 60F SUGGEST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROTATE. THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
AND THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF CONVECTION DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT
RISK.

..DARROW.. 01/13/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131609
SWODY1
SPC AC 131608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND OVER CA AND WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING...WILL DIG
SEWD INTO AZ/NWRN MEXICO BY 12Z THU. WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
DIMINISHING ONSHORE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ABOUT OVER TO THE W OF SIERRAS.

IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP MUCH INSTABILITY UNDER THE DIGGING
TROUGH INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SWRN U.S. AS LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
INITIALLY LACKING IN MOISTURE.

WITH ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT GENERALLY ACROSS SRN NV INTO NWRN AZ.

..HALES.. 01/13/2010

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KMFR [131558]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131558
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
758 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0757 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NNE SELMA 42.30N 123.59W
01/13/2010 M2.49 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM

&&

$$

PETRUCEL

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KMFR [131436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131436
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
635 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0634 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW WILDERVILLE 42.36N 123.56W
01/13/2010 M3.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR AMOUNT ENDING 630AM.

&&

$$

HOLTZ

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KBYZ [131420]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 131420
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
720 AM MST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1113 PM NON-TSTM WND GST LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.56W
01/12/2010 M58 MPH PARK MT ASOS

&&

$$

STC

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KMFR [131309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 131309
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
509 AM PST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0508 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
01/13/2010 M1.53 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 5AM...OBSERVED LIGHTNING

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KCYS [131239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131239
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
538 AM MST WED JAN 13 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0905 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
01/12/2010 M58 MPH PLATTE WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH FROM 925 AM TO 210 PM.

&&

$$

LUNDQUIST

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131234
SWODY1
SPC AC 131233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE INLAND THIS MORNING
INTO PORTIONS OF ORE/CA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BAND HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE NORTHERN VALLEY OF CA...AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND INTO SOUTHERN NV BY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT COUPLED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION CORES...AND
PERHAPS IN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN AZ AND PERHAPS SOUTHWEST UT AFTER DARK. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

..HART.. 01/13/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130953
SWOD48
SPC AC 130952

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

A SOMEWHAT SLOWER EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL PROVIDE
MORE TIME FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SIZABLE DIFFERENCES
PERSIST AMONG MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONCERNING ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENTS...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN GULF COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST ON
SATURDAY REMAIN UNCLEAR. THEREAFTER...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER
FLOW IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S./NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PROBABLY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ONSET OF
A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE GULF STATES...IF NOT A LARGER PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL U.S. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
BECOMES TOO LARGE BY THAT EXTENDED TIME FRAME TO REASONABLY
DELINEATE A SEVERE RISK AREA.

..KERR.. 01/13/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0005

ACUS11 KWNS 130817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130817
CAZ000-NVZ000-131215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0005
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA NEVADA RANGE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 130817Z - 131215Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 2 INCHES/HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z...MAINLY ABOVE 5000 FEET MSL. SNOW RATES SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH BETWEEN 12-15Z.

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NRN/CNTRL CA COAST. AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED
PROGRESSIVELY OVERSPREADING THE COASTAL RANGES AND SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AS OF 08Z. ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...LIKELY SIGNALING THE ARRIVAL OF STEEPER MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

CURRENT MESONET OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SURFACE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET.
HOWEVER...DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
/I.E. 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-90 M/ COUPLED WITH EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 5000-5500 FEET. THE
INFLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS OFF THE PACIFIC /PW VALUES
APPROACHING AN INCH/ COUPLED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
/BOTH DYNAMICAL AND OROGRAPHIC/ AND THE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
ALL PROMOTE HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY RATES OF 2 INCHES LIKELY.

SNOW RATES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEGINS TO SHIFT E OF THE REGION.

..MEAD.. 01/13/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...MFR...STO...

LAT...LON 36341860 37722032 39662137 40672206 41382165 41362116
39352019 37851898 36521802 36061817 36341860

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130800
SWODY3
SPC AC 130759

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST WED JAN 13 2010

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE CLOSED LOW...WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED
TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A PERSISTENT SPLIT UPPER FLOW...
MAY BE A BIT SLOWER OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU THAN EARLIER
ANTICIPATED. BUT...THIS FEATURE STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE...AS MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER VERY STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC
JET NOSING TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE INTO/
THROUGH THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF COAST REGION
LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING CONTRIBUTING TO
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

...TEXAS COAST...
GENERALLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY INLAND OF COASTAL
AREAS...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING THE RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT AN AREA OF ENHANCED
FORCING/SHEAR...WHICH MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BY
12Z FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INITIAL SPEED MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE
LOW...MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. ONE OR TWO STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ...AND COULD REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE FRONTAL WAVE BEGINS TO
EVOLVE OFFSHORE.

..KERR.. 01/13/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130551
SWODY1
SPC AC 130550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LARGE SCALE SPLIT OF THE WESTERLIES PREVAILS OVER NORTH
AMERICA...ANY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A BIFURCATING UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND
ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE NORTHERN SPLIT/VORT
MAX MINORS WHILE ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AMPLIFICATION OF THE SOUTHERN SPLIT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA TO THE SOUTHWEST
DESERTS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
UPPER JET DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA.

...CA/NV/AZ/UT...
FRONTAL BAND/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND/EASTWARD
ACROSS CA/ORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL CA COASTAL
AREAS AMIDST RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES/STEEPENING LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTM POTENTIAL WILL
DEVELOP EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR CA TOWARD SOUTHERN
NV/WESTERN AZ/PERHAPS SOUTHERN UT DURING THE DAY ATTENDANT TO THE
DIGGING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BRUNT OF UVV/COOLING ALOFT...WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED/SURFACE
BASED STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CA INTERIOR
VALLEY WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING /50S F/ MAY OCCUR
BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POCKET /AROUND -25C AT 500 MB/.

..GUYER.. 01/13/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130543
SWODY2
SPC AC 130542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC APPEARS UNDERWAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY THURSDAY...WHILE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DIGS
MORE STRONGLY SOUTHWARD INTO/THROUGH THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. AS THIS
OCCURS...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
AND...THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SURFACE RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO
FINALLY WEAKEN WITH THE PRIMARY CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS MAY ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION TO GAIN
MOMENTUM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN INTO
WESTERN AREAS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT MOISTURE RETURN
ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO TEXAS WILL BE RATHER WEAK.

...SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING LARGER
SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH OF ARIZONA INTO NORTHWEST
MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM BOTTOMS OUT AND GRADUALLY
TURNS EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND.
STRONGER COOLING ALOFT AND STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION WITH LARGE-SCALE
FORCING MAY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS DURING THE DAY. LATER THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY AND BIG BEND
REGION...ENOUGH MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...AND THE MOST VIGOROUS
CONVECTION...WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO MEXICAN COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD SPREAD INTO THE COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY...AS A SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE EXIT REGION OF A
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. AS THIS
OCCURS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 01/13/2010

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