DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120044
SWODY1
SPC AC 120041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS SERN OH AND
VICINITY...THOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ATTM. WHILE THE TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL 10% THUNDER
AREA AS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

..PARTS OF N TX/OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO...
CAPPING INVERSION HAS INHIBITED ANY POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL DO SO THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MODELS HINT...THOUGH...THAT QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY
PERMIT SUFFICIENT ABOVE-GROUND MOISTENING AND UVV TO ALLOW A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA
OF 10% THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.GOSS.. 11/12/2007

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KSEW [120006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 120006
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
405 PM PST SUN NOV 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 WNW CLALLAM BAY 48.29N 124.41W
11/11/2007 M61 MPH CLALLAM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 27 TO 35 MPH. GUST OCCURRED
AT 246 PM.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KLKN [112005]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 112005
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1204 PM PST SUN NOV 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW 12 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.67N 117.57W
11/11/2007 E3.8 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

7800 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GRANITE PEAK SNOTEL /GRPN2/

1100 AM SNOW 17 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.75N 117.53W
11/11/2007 E1.8 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

6700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BUCKSKIN LOWER SNOTEL /BKLN2/

1100 AM SNOW 15 SW WILDHORSE 41.53N 116.01W
11/11/2007 E5.5 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8420 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY JACKS PEAK SNOTEL /JAPN2/

1100 AM SNOW 9 E JARBIDGE 41.87N 115.25W
11/11/2007 E4.7 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8330 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY POLE CREEK RS SNOTEL /PRSN2/

1100 AM SNOW 14 SW WILDHORSE 41.55N 116.01W
11/11/2007 E3.3 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7250 FEET MSL...MEASURED AT JACK CREEK UPPER SNOTEL
/JCUN2/

1100 AM SNOW 7 W MOUNTAIN CITY 41.82N 116.10W
11/11/2007 E1.8 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

7000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY FAWN CREEK SNOTEL /FWCN2/

1100 AM SNOW 6 NNW RUBY LAKE 40.28N 115.53W
11/11/2007 E2.8 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8500 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY CORRAL CANYON SNOTEL /COLN2/

1100 AM SNOW 8 N RUBY VALLEY 40.89N 115.20W
11/11/2007 E2.3 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8100 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY DORSEY BASIN SNOTEL /DRBN2/

1100 AM SNOW 8 ESE JIGGS 40.38N 115.53W
11/11/2007 E1.3 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

8000 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY GREEN MOUNTAIN SNOTEL /GRMN2/

1100 AM SNOW 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
11/11/2007 E2.4 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

8700 FEET MSL...MEASURED BY BIG CREEK SUMMIT SNOTEL
/BCSN2/

&&

$$

RCM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111951
SWODY1
SPC AC 111948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..OH VALLEY...

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN MN WITH
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH NERN IA...CNTRL IL AND
INTO WRN KY. CLUSTERS OF LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS
AFTERNOON W OF SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...EWD TO E
OF WARM FRONT OVER IND AND WRN OH. RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND
VWP/PROFILER PLAN VIEW DATA SUGGEST THAT A BROAD ZONE OF
MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG WSWLY LLJ ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE STORMS.

THIS LLJ APPEARS TO BE TIED TO A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
QUICKLY TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. LATEST SHORT TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LLJ SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIGRATE/DEVELOP
EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...AND AWAY FROM
PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS IN PLACE FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS. AS SUCH...ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD
TEND TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TIME TONIGHT AS THE STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHIFTS EWD.

..KS/OK/TX...

AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING EWD INTO SWRN TX IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER...UPSTREAM
SYSTEM DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE SRN CA COAST. MODIFICATION OF 12Z
MAF SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT AIR MASS
IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE REMAINS CAPPED FOR SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE PROSPECTS OF ANY DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WARM
SECTOR REMAIN QUITE LOW.

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT AS
LLJ AND DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT INTENSIFY AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH TX. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

..CA/NV...

HEIGHT FALLS/CONSIDERABLE MID-LEVEL COOLING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
TONIGHT AS STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IT MOVES ONSHORE. ASSOCIATED
STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

.MEAD.. 11/11/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111649
SWODY2
SPC AC 111647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

A PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ELSEWHERE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES...CNTRL PLAINS
INTO MID MS VALLEY...WHILE IN THE LOWER LATITUDES...A WEAKENING
IMPULSE WILL SHIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SWWD INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE NRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOST PROGRESSIVE...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NERN STATES. THE
SRN EXTENSION OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF CNTRL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH BOUNDARY
ACCELERATING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO OH VALLEY...

CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF OK AND N TX...DRIVEN BY DEEPER-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
DESPITE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...GENERALLY POOR
LAPSE RATES WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MUCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
INTO AR IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD MIGRATION OF UPPER TROUGH.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO
THE OH VALLEY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL PLAINS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HERE TOO...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST.

.MEAD.. 11/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111629
SWODY1
SPC AC 111626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

WESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NATION
TODAY...WITH SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THESE FEATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

..OH VALLEY...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM MO/IL INTO
IND/OH. THESE STORMS ARE NEAR NOSE OF 35-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET WHERE ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ARE SUPPORTING
ACTIVITY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS
AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF KY/OH AND PERHAPS INTO WV BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING.

..TX/OK/KS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH NEAR SOUTHWEST NM. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT. PLUME OF MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IS PRESENT FROM TX INTO MO/KS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND LI
VALUES OF -1 TO -4. INCREASED ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH
AND CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE LOW AND NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

..NV/CA...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CA COAST.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHERN
NV...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK.

.HART/JEWELL.. 11/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111258
SWODY1
SPC AC 111256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX FLOW REGIME WITH MULTIPLE STREAMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD OVER THE CONUS. AN INITIAL NRN STREAM TROUGH OVER SRN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PROGRESS ENEWD TO WRN ONTARIO...WHILE A SURFACE
RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...A FETCH OF
56-64F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO TO IA. THE MOISTURE FEED EXTENDS ENEWD OVER IL/INDIANA ABOVE
THE GROUND...WHERE LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ IS
SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. ELEVATED CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS OH...AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY NEAR AND
N OF THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE.

FARTHER SW...A SEPARATE SRN STREAM EXISTS FROM CA INTO NW MEXICO. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL EJECT
EWD TODAY THEN ENEWD TONIGHT TO W TX...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE DIGS SEWD
OVER CA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. MOISTENING PROFILES AND
WEAK ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INVOF NW TX.
CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS OK/MO LATE IN THE PERIOD
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS.

.THOMPSON/LEVIT.. 11/11/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110915
SWOD48
SPC AC 110915

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..DISCUSSION...
VERY STRONG JET STREAM NOW OVER THE N PAC BASIN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AND EVENTUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY BY THURSDAY 15 NOV. A FRESH CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS WILL
SURGE SEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...REINFORCING THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL GULF BASIN AND FL THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE...STUBBORN NWRN MEXICO UPR LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
EJECT EWD REACHING TX BY FRI 16 NOV BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE
LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD LATE NEXT WEEK. LATEST
NCEP-GEFS MEMBERS OFFER MODEST UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM . WHATEVER THE CASE...PRIND THAT MOISTURE
FIELDS WILL NOT INCREASE APPRECIABLY DURING THE WEEK ALONG THE WRN
GULF COASTAL AREA OWING TO CONTINUED UNFAVORABLE DRY OUTFLOW
EMANATING FROM THE SERN STATES ANTICYCLONE. AS A RESULT...AN
ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SVR WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY
ACROSS TX OR THE GULF COAST AND A MEDIUM RANGE SVR OUTLOOK IS NOT
JUSTIFIED.

.RACY.. 11/11/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110729
SWODY3
SPC AC 110727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
POWERFUL N PAC JET WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPR MS VLY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NWRN MEXICO
UPR LOW WILL BECOME WELL REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FLOW AND REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND. MEANWHILE...WEAKER SRN BRANCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE SEWD
AND DEAMPLIFY...BUT CONTRIBUTE TO CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE SERN STATES.

AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS
THE SERN STATES AND THE NRN GULF BASIN...LIMITING THE RETURN OF
QUALITY GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NWD. THE COLD FRONT SETTLING SEWD
ACROSS THE OH VLY AND SRN PLAINS MONDAY AND EARLY TUE WILL BECOME
ILL-DEFINED...AWAITING A FRESH SURGE OF CP AIR FOLLOWING THE MORE
INTENSE NRN STREAM JET. THIS NEW FRONT WILL REACH THE OH VLY...
OZARKS AND OK/N TX BY 12Z WED.

HIGHEST TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY FAVOR THE FRONTAL ZONE FROM
NERN OK NEWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE WEAKER SRN BRANCH WAVES
MOVE SEWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
ROBUST AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES POOR. THUS...SVR WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...BANDS OF STREAMER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SPORADIC
TSTMS ALONG THE UPR TX COAST NWD INTO THE AR OZARKS WHERE SLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINS MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS.
THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SVR
STORMS.

.RACY.. 11/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110558
SWODY1
SPC AC 110556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY WITH TIME ACROSS THE CONUS...AS
UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY NEAR THE W COAST AMPLIFIES AS IT CROSSES THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...A LEAD WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...WHILE
UPSTREAM RIDGING INCREASES AND SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE MIDWEST/MID SOUTH.

..MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS.
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING INCREASES.

..SRN SIERRA...
MINIMAL INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA.

..RED RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN OK/N TX...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO THE SRN PLAINS
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITH QG FORCING AND
MOISTENING NEAR 850 MB POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED/ELEVATED STORMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 11/11/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110552
SWODY2
SPC AC 110550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SAT NOV 10 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MULTI-STREAM UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE NRN BRANCH IMPULSE CURRENTLY ARRIVING ON THE PAC NW
COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO ONTARIO BY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPSTREAM...POWERFUL UPR JET STREAM PUNCHES
ACROSS THE N PAC BASIN. 00Z NAM/GFS PORTRAY EXTREME DIFFERENCES
HANDLING SRN PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT PAC NW SYSTEM. ATTM...ECMWF
AND UKMET AGREE WITH THE GFS IN CLOSING OFF A LOW AND DROPPING IT
SWD INTO NWRN MEXICO AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...A LEAD IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO NWRN MEXICO WILL EJECT
ENEWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE DEEP S DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT...TIED PRIMARILY TO THE NRN BRANCH
IMPULSE...WILL DROP SEWD REACHING A NEW ENGLAND...OH VLY...SRN
PLAINS LINE BY 12Z TUE. THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
IMPETUS FOR SCT TSTMS ON MONDAY.

..SRN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
COMPLEX TSTM FCST WILL EXIST FOR MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE A GRADUAL MOISTENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MODIFIED
CP AIR MASS FLOWS NEWD FROM TX INTO THE MIDWEST. TSTMS MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY MONDAY...TIED TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE MIDWEST STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE
EWD DURING THE AFTN.

TSTM PROBABILITIES SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY AFTN ACROSS PORTIONS OF E
TX/WRN LA AS TAIL-END OF THE SRN PLAINS IMPULSE EJECTS EWD. FCST
SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THUS...WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS...BUOYANCY WILL
BE LIMITED WITH STORMS LIKELY REMAINING SUB-SVR.

MEANWHILE...TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT ALONG/N OF A COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NRN OK/KS EWD
INTO THE MIDWEST AS LARGER SCALE HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCD WITH THE NRN
STREAM...SPREAD EWD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ELEVATED WITH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY MINIMAL. THUS...SVR STORMS
ARE ALSO UNLIKELY OVER THESE AREAS.

.RACY.. 11/11/2007

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