SWODY2
SPC AC 111647
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2007
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE
PACIFIC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. ELSEWHERE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES...CNTRL PLAINS
INTO MID MS VALLEY...WHILE IN THE LOWER LATITUDES...A WEAKENING
IMPULSE WILL SHIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SWWD INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THE NRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MOST PROGRESSIVE...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NERN STATES. THE
SRN EXTENSION OF FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY PRIOR
TO THE PASSAGE OF CNTRL PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH BOUNDARY
ACCELERATING SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
..CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO OH VALLEY...
CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF OK AND N TX...DRIVEN BY DEEPER-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WEAKENING SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
DESPITE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...GENERALLY POOR
LAPSE RATES WILL EFFECTIVELY LIMIT MUCAPES TO 500-1000 J/KG. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY...GRADUALLY DEVELOPING
INTO AR IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD MIGRATION OF UPPER TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS INTO
THE OH VALLEY AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH CNTRL PLAINS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HERE TOO...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
FORECAST.
.MEAD.. 11/11/2007
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