ACUS01 KWNS 011947
SWODY1
SPC AC 011945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD/NEB INTO MN...NRN
WI...WRN U.P. MI...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY FORMING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SERN SD...WITH OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CELLS TO THE N. GIVEN EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND AMPLE DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE...ADDED A CORRIDOR OF SIG HAIL PROBABILITIES.
ALSO...STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE INTO FAST MOVING BOWS ALONG
THE SW/NE ORIENTED FRONT...WITH SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND WIND
DRIVEN HAIL. A FEW SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR...AND HAVE
ADDED A SMALL SIG WIND AREA FROM THE SERN SD STORMS INTO WRN AND
CNTRL MN.
..JEWELL.. 07/01/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2011/
...SD/NEB INTO MN/WI/UPR MI...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A COMPACT AND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER SD/NEB. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD 70S DEWPOINTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MN/IA WHERE FULL
SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3500 J/KG.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL SD. THESE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SEVERE AND
TRACK ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO MN/IA/WI. MORNING SOUNDINGS
SHOWED WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 700-850MB LAYER...WHICH MAY LIMIT
THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
NEVERTHELESS...STRONG HEATING AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN SURFACE-BASED STORMS
INCLUDING BOW STRUCTURES TRACKING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH THE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND CENTRAL CO. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. THIS
REGION WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SD/NEB...WITH ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED.
NEVERTHELESS...A SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS
REGION. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...
THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE MS VALLEY TODAY...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE OH/TN VALLEYS. SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY FROM LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF IL/IND/OH WITH A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
LIMITED FORCING MECHANISMS AND MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. DESPITE WEAK FLOW
ALOFT...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL
PROMOTE A RISK OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL.
REFER TO MCD NUMBER 1460 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
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