KBIS [252131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252131
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
431 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL HETTINGER 46.00N 102.63W
05/25/2007 E1.00 INCH ADAMS ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

HW/CS

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KBIS [252123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252123
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
423 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HAIL SELFRIDGE 46.04N 100.92W
05/25/2007 E0.75 INCH SIOUX ND PUBLIC

POSSIBLE FUNNEL

&&

$$

HW/CS

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KABR [252120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 252120
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
419 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM HAIL 15 SE ISABEL 45.24N 101.21W
05/25/2007 E0.88 INCH DEWEY SD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

$$

AP

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KUNR [252113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 252113
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0309 PM HAIL 5 S LODGEPOLE 45.74N 102.66W
05/25/2007 E0.75 INCH PERKINS SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

LCZEPYHA

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KBIS [252112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252112
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
412 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 8 SW SELFRIDGE 45.96N 101.04W
05/25/2007 SIOUX ND NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

HW/CS

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KBIS [252111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 252111
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
411 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM HAIL 8 SW SELFRIDGE 45.96N 101.04W
05/25/2007 E2.00 INCH SIOUX ND NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

HW/CS

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KBRO [252106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 252106
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
406 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0403 PM FLASH FLOOD N HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
05/25/2007 CAMERON TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

CAMERON COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTS HEAVY FLOODING IN
MARIPOSA SUBDIVISION NORTH OF HARLINGEN WITH WATER UP TO
CAR HEADLIGHTS.

0403 PM FLASH FLOOD SAN BENITO 26.14N 97.64W
05/25/2007 CAMERON TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

CAMERON COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTS FLOODING OF BUSINESS 77
AND FARM-TO-MARKET 510 IN SAN BENITO.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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KCRP [252105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 252105
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD ALICE 27.76N 98.07W
05/25/2007 JIM WELLS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

CITY OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT SOME RESIDENTS WERE
EVACUATED FOR MINOR FLOODING NEAR LOW LYING/CREEK
REGIONS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CITY.
THE TIME OF THE EVACUATIONS WERE ROUGHLY BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 2 PM CDT.

&&

$$

RMORALES

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KICT [252100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 252100
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0357 PM FLOOD HALSTEAD 38.00N 97.51W
05/25/2007 HARVEY KS COUNTY OFFICIAL

CITY OFFICIALS REPORT THAT THE FLOOD GATES BY THE
RAILROAD ON THE EAST SIDE OF HALSTEAD ARE BEING CLOSED.

&&

$$

JAS

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KCLE [252054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 252054
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
454 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0403 PM HAIL 2 S GARRETTSVILLE 41.26N 81.10W
05/25/2007 E0.75 INCH PORTAGE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG WINDHAM 41.24N 81.04W
05/25/2007 PORTAGE OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE AND LARGE LIMB WAS REPORTED DOWN.

0430 PM HAIL SHAKER HEIGHTS 41.48N 81.55W
05/25/2007 E0.88 INCH CUYAHOGA OH BROADCAST MEDIA

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG NILES 41.19N 80.75W
05/25/2007 TRUMBULL OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TWO LARGE TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN.

&&

$$

ABE

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KBRO [252051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 252051
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
351 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM FLASH FLOOD HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
05/25/2007 CAMERON TX OTHER FEDERAL

TEXAS GENERAL LAND OFFICE OFFICIAL REPORTS RIGHT LANE OF
ED CAREY CLOSED BY SIX INCHES OF WATER NEAR ED CAREY AND
BUSINESS 77.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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KABQ [252046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 252046
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0112 PM HAIL 20 NNW MAGDALENA 34.38N 107.37W
05/25/2007 E1.00 INCH SOCORRO NM FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

EMT REMPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL NORTH
OF ALAMO

&&

$$

JS

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KBRO [252037]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 252037
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
337 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM FLASH FLOOD SAN BENITO 26.14N 97.64W
05/25/2007 CAMERON TX OTHER FEDERAL

TEXAS GENERAL LAND OFFICE OFFICIAL REPORTS STANDING WATER
ON US 77 AND FRONTAGE ROAD WITH CONTINUING TORRENTIAL
RAINS IN SAN BENITO.

&&

$$

MARTIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0890

ACUS11 KWNS 252020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252020
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0890
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 252020Z - 252115Z

AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED FROM ERN CO
INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A WATCH IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

A RELATIVELY NARROW N-S AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
COINCIDENT WITH LEE/THERMAL TROUGH ON THE HIGH-PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN COMBINATION WITH CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM
INITIATION IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY BE SPURRED
BY LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SPREADING EAST OVER CO. MODEST /30-40KT/ MID LEVEL
FLOW ATOP SLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
DIRECTIONAL IN THE UPDRAFT LAYER...AND SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE
CLOUD-LAYER...FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT FROM THIS CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST ALONG
THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA DURING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITY APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
WATCH. HOWEVER...LIMITED SEVERE STORM COVERAGE MAY RESULT IN A
RELATIVELY SMALL WATCH.

.CARBIN.. 05/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

39610057 39250156 39780226 40490261 41130233 41300143
41040094 40390052

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KBRO [252018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 252018
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0316 PM FLASH FLOOD EDINBURG 26.30N 98.16W
05/25/2007 HIDALGO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MCALLEN DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY REPORTS WATER
COVERING FARM-TO-MARKET 1925 EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 IN THE
VICINITY OF EDINBURG.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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KBRO [252013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 252013
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
313 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0311 PM FLASH FLOOD SAN PERLITA 26.50N 97.64W
05/25/2007 WILLACY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WILLACY COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS WATER COVERING
HIGHWAY 186 AND 1420 IN THE VICINITY OF SAN PERLITA.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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KBRO [252004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 252004
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FLASH FLOOD HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
05/25/2007 CAMERON TX OTHER FEDERAL

TEXAS GENERAL LAND OFFICE OFFICIAL REPORTS ESTIMATED ONE
FOOT OF WATER ON STREETS IN DOWNTOWN HARLINGEN.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 252002
SWODY1
SPC AC 252000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

..NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD
THE DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC
LOW NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AND SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE LOW ARE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S F. A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
EXISTS IN WCNTRL SD AND INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS MOVING EWD INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...RUC MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A 60 KT
MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER NW WY INTO SWRN SD EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND SUPERCELLS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SHOULD KEEP
STORM BASES RELATIVELY HIGH. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
VERY STEEP AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND -18C IN WRN AND CNTRL SD
ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THIS SUGGESTS ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND DAMAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN...0-3 KM LAPSE RATES IN WRN SD ARE
ALSO VERY STEEP EXCEEDING 8.5 C/KM. THIS MAY RESULT IN A POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SFC AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGER. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO SW NEB
AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR WRN KS. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATER AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY THIS
EVENING MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT.

..SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS...
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
CNTRL ROCKIES AND A SUBTLE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDS
INTO PARTS OF THE SRN ROCKIES. AN AXIS OF DRYER AIR IS PRESENT FROM
CNTRL NM EXTENDING NEWD TO NORTH OF TUCUMCARI NM. ALONG THIS
AXIS...INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND CONVECTION ACROSS NERN NM WILL
MOVE SEWD INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. RUC
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS NRN NM AND FAR SRN CO IS IN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. FOR THIS REASON...A
MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY IN THIS AREA.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN NM...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT EXISTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL NOT BE AS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS MULTICELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..OH VALLEY...
WEAK SOUTHWESTLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR ST LOUIS MO EXTENDING ENEWD TO NEAR CLEVELAND OH.
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND A WEAKENING CAPPING
INVERSION ALONG THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED NUMEROUS STORMS TO INITIATE.
REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE SUGGESTING THE THREAT
WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE STRONGEST OF MULTICELLS MAY HAVE A
BRIEF POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAINLY NEAR PEAK
HEATING.

.BROYLES.. 05/25/2007

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KABQ [252000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 252000
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
159 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0112 PM HAIL ALTO 33.40N 105.68W
05/25/2007 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN NM POST OFFICE

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE POST OFFICE WITH 3
INCHES OF HAIL ACCUMULATION NEARBY

&&

$$

JS

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KTFX [251952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 251952
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
152 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HEAVY RAIN STANFORD 47.15N 110.22W
05/25/2007 M1.71 INCH JUDITH BASIN MT CO-OP OBSERVER

1.71 INCHES OF RAIN FELL PAST 24 HRS

0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW FORT SHAW 47.46N 111.87W
05/25/2007 M0.00 INCH CASCADE MT PUBLIC

2.07 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR SQUARE SHAW PAST 24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 WSW BABB 48.78N 113.74W
05/25/2007 E5.8 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

FLATTOP MTN SNOTEL 5.8 INCHES SNOWFALL IN 24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW DUPUYER 48.04N 112.73W
05/25/2007 M6.4 INCH TETON MT MESONET

DUPUYER CK SNOTEL HAD 6.4 INCHES SNOWFALL IN 24HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW BYNUM 47.98N 112.31W
05/25/2007 M9.3 INCH TETON MT MESONET

BYNUM 6400 FT EL SNOTEL 9.3 INCHES PAST 24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 29 W CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.81W
05/25/2007 M7.4 INCH TETON MT MESONET

WALDRON 5600 FT EL 7.4 INCHES SNOWFALL PAST 24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 SE ROCKY BOY 48.03N 109.45W
05/25/2007 M7.6 INCH BLAINE MT MESONET

BOX ELDER SNOTEL 4700 FT EL HAD 7.6 INCHES SNOWFALL PAST
24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 16 ENE ENNIS 45.43N 111.43W
05/25/2007 M9.2 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

LONE MTN SNOTEL 8800 FT EL HAD 9.2 INCHES SNOWFALL PAST
24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 WSW DUPUYER 48.07N 112.94W
05/25/2007 M7.5 INCH TETON MT MESONET

BADGER PASS SNOTEL 6900 FT EL 7.5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
PAST 24HRS

1037 AM HEAVY SNOW GIBSON RESERVOIR 47.60N 112.76W
05/25/2007 M12.0 INCH TETON MT PARK/FOREST SRVC

12 INCHES NEW SNOW THROUGH 10 AM AT SUN CANYON.

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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KPUB [251949]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 251949
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
149 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM HAIL 2 E SEGUNDO 37.12N 104.73W
05/25/2007 M0.75 INCH LAS ANIMAS CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

TLM

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KLSX [251944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 251944
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
244 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE ELLINGTON 37.29N 90.91W
05/25/2007 REYNOLDS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWY K AND W

&&

$$

BRM

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KBGM [251943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 251943
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM HAIL SYRACUSE 43.04N 76.14W
05/25/2007 E0.75 INCH ONONDAGA NY PUBLIC

&&

$$

JAB

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KPUB [251937]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 251937
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
137 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0117 PM HAIL 10 NW CRESTONE 38.10N 105.83W
05/25/2007 M0.75 INCH SAGUACHE CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

TLM

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KBRO [251932]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 251932
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
232 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD HARLINGEN 26.20N 97.69W
05/25/2007 CAMERON TX NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS MINOR TO MODERATE STREET FLOODING IN
VICINITY OF HARLINGEN AT ED CAREY/US 77.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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KTFX [251928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 251928
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
127 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 WSW BABB 48.78N 113.74W
05/25/2007 E5.8 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

FLATTOP MTN SNOTEL 5.8 INCHES SNOWFALL IN 24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 15 SW DUPUYER 48.04N 112.73W
05/25/2007 M6.4 INCH TETON MT MESONET

DUPUYER CK SNOTEL HAD 6.4 INCHES SNOWFALL IN 24HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW BYNUM 47.98N 112.31W
05/25/2007 M9.3 INCH TETON MT MESONET

BYNUM 6400 FT EL SNOTEL 9.3 INCHES PAST 24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 29 W CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.81W
05/25/2007 M7.4 INCH TETON MT MESONET

WALDRON 5600 FT EL 7.4 INCHES SNOWFALL PAST 24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 SE ROCKY BOY 48.03N 109.45W
05/25/2007 M7.6 INCH BLAINE MT MESONET

BOX ELDER SNOTEL 4700 FT EL HAD 7.6 INCHES SNOWFALL PAST
24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 16 ENE ENNIS 45.43N 111.43W
05/25/2007 M9.2 INCH MADISON MT MESONET

LONE MTN SNOTEL 8800 FT EL HAD 9.2 INCHES SNOWFALL PAST
24 HRS

1202 PM HEAVY SNOW 22 WSW DUPUYER 48.07N 112.94W
05/25/2007 M7.5 INCH TETON MT MESONET

BADGER PASS SNOTEL 6900 FT EL 7.5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL
PAST 24HRS

1037 AM HEAVY SNOW GIBSON RESERVOIR 47.60N 112.76W
05/25/2007 M12.0 INCH TETON MT PARK/FOREST SRVC

12 INCHES NEW SNOW THROUGH 10 AM AT SUN CANYON.

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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KAMA [251924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251924
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
224 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HAIL 20 N MIAMI 35.98N 100.64W
05/24/2007 E0.88 INCH ROBERTS TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

MRK

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KBRO [251916]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 251916
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
216 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0213 PM FLASH FLOOD N COMBES 26.24N 97.72W
05/25/2007 CAMERON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY REPORTS WATER COVERING
US 77 IN VICINITY OF COMBES.

0213 PM FLASH FLOOD RAYMONDVILLE 26.48N 97.78W
05/25/2007 WILLACY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY REPORTS WATER COVERING
US 77 IN VICINITY OF RAYMONDVILLE.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0889

ACUS11 KWNS 251912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251912
COZ000-NMZ000-252115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0889
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO/EAST CENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251912Z - 252115Z

LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NM/SOUTH CENTRAL
CO...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/MID LEVEL SPEED
MAXIMA MOVING ACROSS CO. ALONG WITH AMPLE INSOLATION...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTH CENTRAL CO AND INTERIOR NM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S
EXTEND WELL WESTWARD ACROSS NM /ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN NM/ AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CO PLAINS. MORNING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM ALBUQUERQUE AND
EL PASO BOTH REFLECT RATHER MOIST PROFILES...WITH MEAN MIXING RATIOS
OF 7.0 G/KG AND 9.2 G/KG RESPECTIVELY...WITH PW VALUES 170 PERCENT
OF NORMAL. ALTHOUGH AMBIENT WIND FIELDS ARE MODEST /EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR 30 KT OR LESS/...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND/OR SLIGHTLY STRONGER
MID LEVEL WINDS WITH NORTH EXTENT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/SOUTHEAST CO
MAY SUPPORT SOME ROTATING STORMS...WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE HAIL
THREAT. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.GUYER.. 05/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

38270516 37990297 36280326 33850362 32260481 32170795
34870776 35940642

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 298

WWUS20 KWNS 251904
SEL8
SPC WW 251904
NDZ000-SDZ000-260200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM MDT FRI MAY 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA TO 75 MILES SOUTH OF PHILIP SOUTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF WY INTO SD/ND. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR...AND
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING FRONT WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE
STORMS INTO SUPERCELLS AND BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

..HART

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KBRO [251858]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 251858
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0156 PM FLASH FLOOD MCALLEN 26.22N 98.24W
05/25/2007 HIDALGO TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIDALGO COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED STREET FLOODING
ON NORTH SIDE OF MCALLEN AT PECAN STREET.

&&

$$

TOMASELLI

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KAMA [251846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251846
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
146 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HAIL 35 NW MIAMI 36.05N 101.08W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH ROBERTS TX PUBLIC

HAIL DENTED VEHICLE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ROBERTS
COUNTY

&&

$$

MRK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0888

ACUS11 KWNS 251845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251844
SDZ000-NDZ000-WYZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0888
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN WY...NWRN SD...SWRN/SCNTRL ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 251844Z - 251945Z

CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR SECTIONS OF WRN
SD...SWRN/SCNTRL ND...AND PERHAPS ERN WY.

LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS NWRN SD WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NEWD AND THEN EWD ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER AREA. COLD FRONT
APPEARS TO BE SWEEPING SEWD ACROSS NERN WY WITH WIDESPREAD CU
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WHILE AIR
MASS REMAINS DRY ACROSS WRN SD ATTM...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WERE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/K IN THE WARM SECTOR ATTM. CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION
SHORTLY AND...GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR THESE FEATURES IN THE RANGE
OF 30-40 KT...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE.
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST IF CELLS CAN TRACK PREFERENTIALLY
ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE A FOCUSED REGION OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SRH
WILL ENHANCE UPDRAFT ROTATION POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...GIVEN RELATIVELY
HIGH LFC DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE LIMITED IN TIME/SPACE.

ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS THE
UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREAD EAST FROM ERN WY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION. SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL INCREASE AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM SPREADS EWD THIS EVENING AND THIS COULD PROMOTE SOME
UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY WITH A SMALL ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OF STORMS SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD.

.CARBIN.. 05/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...

43670304 43350402 43970446 44980387 46010355 46510256
46690096 46239943 45629946 44890063

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KICT [251841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 251841
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
140 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM FLOOD NEW CAMBRIA 38.88N 97.51W
05/25/2007 SALINE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

DUE TO THE SMOKY HILL AND SALINE RIVERS...ALL ROADS
LEADING INTO NEW CAMBRIA ARE FLOODED. HIGHWAY 40 BETWEEN
MARYMOUNT ROAD AND WHITMORE ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD
WATERS. WITHIN THE CITY...WATER COVERS RAILROAD AND MILL
ROAD...CUNNINGHAM ROAD AND ALSO FIRST STREET AND SECOND
STREET.

&&

$$

JAS

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KAMA [251827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 251827
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
126 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1141 PM HAIL 8 SSE PERRYTON 36.28N 100.75W
05/23/2007 E1.75 INCH OCHILTREE TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

MRK

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KICT [251750]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 251750
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1249 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLOOD HALSTEAD 38.00N 97.51W
05/25/2007 HARVEY KS COUNTY OFFICIAL

DUE TO THE LITTLE ARKANSAS RIVER...HIGHWAY 50 IS TAKING
ON WATER IN THE WEST BOUND...NORTH LANE. HALSTEAD ROAD ON
THE NORTH END OF HALSTEAD IS FLOODED. WATER COVERS K89 OR
HERTZLER ROAD LEADING INTO HALSTEAD FROM THE NORTH. CITY
OFFICIALS CLOSED THE FLOOD GATES ON THE WEST END OF
HALSTEAD.

&&

$$

JAS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0887

ACUS11 KWNS 251733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251733
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-252000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0887
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251733Z - 252000Z

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO ISOLATED/BRIEF SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
POORLY ORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

STORMS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG DECAYING FRONTAL
ZONE FROM SWRN IND SWWD INTO SRN MO THROUGH LATE MORNING. MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 1000
J/KG ACROSS SERN MO...WILL SUPPORT A FEW VIGOROUS STORM UPDRAFTS
WITHIN WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
REGION ADJUSTED WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS RESULT IN SMALL HAIL.
THUS...IN ADDITION TO SOME LOCAL WIND POTENTIAL FROM WEAKLY
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS...A COUPLE OF THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN WEAK FLOW REGIME
AND VERY LIMITED FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF FASTER
WLYS...A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

.CARBIN.. 05/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

37549029 36929250 37459299 37919278 38399146 39198965
39908754 39878698 38908735

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 251719
SWODY2
SPC AC 251717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS....

..UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL DRIFT EWD
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THE SFC...A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO NRN MN AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO ERN MN AND IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE THAT
STRONG...ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE AND INTENSIFY A
60-70 KT MID-LEVEL JET EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY.
THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR. A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY
FROM NE KS EXTENDING NEWD INTO WI AND NRN IL WITH SUPERCELLS
POSSIBLE WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS ERN IA...SW WI
AND NW IL WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ADEQUATE THERMODYNAMIC AND
SHEAR PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS. MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. DUE TO THESE FACTORS...THE
STRONGER LINE SEGMENTS MAY HAVE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOCALLY STEEPEN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS OR TWO
ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE
WITH ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING.

..WRN PART OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF SW IA...SE NEB AND NRN KS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND A CAP
WEAKENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES FROM 30-35 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
TOWARD THE LOW-END FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THREAT MAY STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS. LAPSE RATES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR STEEP ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NCNTRL KS...SW KS AND ERN CO SUGGESTING THAT LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE AXIS OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
SEVERE THEAT MARGINAL ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 05/25/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0886

ACUS11 KWNS 251718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251718
PAZ000-NYZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-251945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0886
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NWRN PA...WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 251718Z - 251945Z

A CORRIDOR OF MORE FOCUSED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OH...EWD INTO WRN PA AND PARTS OF WRN NY...OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
ACHIEVE SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...OVERALL POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE INDICATING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION IN MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM OH INTO WRN NY ATTM. FORCING WITH BOTH THE FRONT
AND LAKE BREEZE SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS NRN OH AND INTO NWRN PA
AND WRN NY WILL LIKELY FOCUS A FEW ROBUST TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.
EARLIER PIT SOUNDING ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION RESULTS IN SMALL HAIL AND DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.
THUS...MARGINAL HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS STORM
COVERAGE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO
BE LACK OF BOTH STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING AND WINDS. WITH PRIMARY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL
FLOW TRAILING THE COLD FRONT...STORM CHARACTER WILL BE CONFINED TO
PULSE AND POORLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
A GENERALLY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE AS STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED. OF COURSE...MESO/STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS ALONG THE
LAKE BREEZE AND FRONT COULD LOCALLY AND BRIEFLY SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND THIS ACTIVITY WOULD POSE THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

.CARBIN.. 05/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

41428324 41488157 42067935 42647835 43107736 42927666
41897681 41277760 40417974 40348105 40408290 40608364
40868388 41208378

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 251644
SWODY1
SPC AC 251642

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

..FAR SOUTHERN ND AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SD TO NORTHEAST CO/NORTHWEST
KS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MT/NORTHWEST WY AT MIDDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY...WITH A SHARPENING WARM FRONT NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER...AND A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
WY/EASTERN CO. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...WITH PRIMARILY 40S/SOME LOWER 50S F DEWPOINTS IN THE
AMBIENT WARM SECTOR.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH...INITIALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SD INTO WESTERN NEB. MODERATELY STRONG WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASINGLY
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...WITH A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A SMALL MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE THIS
EVENING...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SD/NEB WITH THE HAIL/WIND
THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

..EASTERN CO AND EASTERN NM AND SOUTHWEST TX...
A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY WITH SOUTH EXTENT
ACROSS EASTERN CO AND EASTERN/SOUTHERN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. AS NOTED IN THE 12Z EL PASO SOUNDING AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS SOUTH
CENTRAL NM AND FAR SOUTHWEST TX. ALTHOUGH TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS
ARE MODEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..OZARKS/OHIO VALLEY INTO WESTERN PA/WESTERN NY...
WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH/FORCING FOR ASCENT WELL NORTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/MO. OBSERVATIONAL
DATA DEPICTS RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE AMBIENT WARM SECTOR
ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION/WARM
PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
MULTICELLULAR/PULSE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS.

.GUYER/HART.. 05/25/2007

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KCRP [251530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 251530
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FLOOD ALICE 27.76N 98.07W
05/25/2007 JIM WELLS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY ARE CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

&&

$$

MB

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KJAX [251529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KJAX 251529
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1128 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM WILDFIRE 8 NNW STEVEN FOSTER STA 30.92N 82.40W
05/25/2007 CHARLTON GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

UPDATE ON WILDFIRES AS OF 5/24/07. THE SWEAT FARM ROAD
FIRE IS 62,000 ACRES...BIG TURNAROUND COMPLEX IS 311,500
ACRES.

&&

$$

ARS

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KEWX [251527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 251527
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1027 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1024 AM FLASH FLOOD 17 NW KERRVILLE 30.22N 99.34W
05/25/2007 KERR TX TRAINED SPOTTER

FORMER NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS A RISE OF 9 FEET ON A JOHNSON
CREEK TRIBUTARY 2 MILES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 IN NORTH
CENTRAL KERR COUNTY.

&&

$$

ANDEWX

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KBIS [251525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KBIS 251525 CCA
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

CORRECTED NON TSTM WIND TO TSTM WIND

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 PM TSTM WND GST MARMARTH 46.30N 103.93W
05/13/2007 E85 MPH SLOPE ND EMERGENCY MNGR

A SHOP THAT WAS UNDER CONSTRUCTION WAS COLLAPSED. GRAIN
BIN 1 MILE EAST OF MARMARTH WAS DAMAGED ALONG WITH THE
ROOF OF A FARM OUTBUILDING BEING TORN OFF. 1 MILE
NORTHEAST OF MARMARTH A HORSE TRAILER WAS TIPPED. HIGH
WINDS LASTED UNTIL ABOUT 1120 PM CDT. SAND CREEK RAWS
SITE NORTHEAST OF MARMARTH MEASURED 78 MPH GUST AROUND
1130 PM CDT.

1110 PM TSTM WND GST GOLVA 46.73N 103.98W
05/13/2007 E65 MPH GOLDEN VALLEY ND NEWSPAPER

1200 AM TSTM WND GST AMIDON 46.48N 103.32W
05/14/2007 E65 MPH SLOPE ND EMERGENCY MNGR

1205 AM TSTM WND GST SCRANTON 46.15N 103.14W
05/14/2007 E65 MPH BOWMAN ND NEWSPAPER

1210 AM TSTM WND GST 5 S BELFIELD 46.81N 103.19W
05/14/2007 E75 MPH STARK ND NEWSPAPER

MACHINE SHED ON FARM DESTROYED 5 MILES SOUTH OF BELFIELD.
BARN 7 MILES SOUTH OF BELFIELD DAMAGED.

0530 PM HAIL 8 NE DOUGLAS 47.94N 101.38W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC

PILES OF HAIL WERE STILL ON THE GROUND UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON OF THE 19TH.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN WCM

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KBIS [251447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 251447
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
947 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1110 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MARMARTH 46.30N 103.93W
05/13/2007 E85 MPH SLOPE ND EMERGENCY MNGR

A SHOP THAT WAS UNDER CONSTRUCTION WAS COLLAPSED. GRAIN
BIN 1 MILE EAST OF MARMARTH WAS DAMAGED ALONG WITH THE
ROOF OF A FARM OUTBUILDING BEING TORN OFF. 1 MILE
NORTHEAST OF MARMARTH A HORSE TRAILER WAS TIPPED. HIGH
WINDS LASTED UNTIL ABOUT 1120 PM CDT. SAND CREEK RAWS
SITE NORTHEAST OF MARMARTH MEASURED 78 MPH GUST AROUND
1130 PM CDT.

1110 PM TSTM WND GST GOLVA 46.73N 103.98W
05/13/2007 E65 MPH GOLDEN VALLEY ND NEWSPAPER

1200 AM TSTM WND GST AMIDON 46.48N 103.32W
05/14/2007 E65 MPH SLOPE ND EMERGENCY MNGR

1205 AM TSTM WND GST SCRANTON 46.15N 103.14W
05/14/2007 E65 MPH BOWMAN ND NEWSPAPER

1210 AM TSTM WND GST 5 S BELFIELD 46.81N 103.19W
05/14/2007 E75 MPH STARK ND NEWSPAPER

MACHINE SHED ON FARM DESTROYED 5 MILES SOUTH OF BELFIELD.
BARN 7 MILES SOUTH OF BELFIELD DAMAGED.

0530 PM HAIL 8 NE DOUGLAS 47.94N 101.38W
05/18/2007 E1.75 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC

PILES OF HAIL WERE STILL ON THE GROUND UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON OF THE 19TH.

&&

$$

JP MARTIN WCM

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KSJT [251357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 251357
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
857 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 S BALLINGER 31.64N 99.94W
05/24/2007 RUNNELS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER THE ROAD 2111 AND HWY 83

&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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KFWD [251339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 251339
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
839 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD HALTOM CITY 32.82N 97.27W
05/24/2007 TARRANT TX NWS EMPLOYEE

FLASH FLOODING OVER ROADS ON BELKNAP AVE.

$$

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KSJT [251334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KSJT 251334
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
834 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL ROWENA 31.65N 100.05W
05/24/2007 E1.00 INCH RUNNELS TX POST OFFICE

&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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KSJT [251333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSJT 251333
LSRSJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
832 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 AM HAIL ROWENA 31.65N 100.05W
05/24/2007 E1.00 INCH RUNNELS TX POST OFFICE

&&

$$

JBRAZZEL

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KEWX [251332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 251332
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
832 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM FLOOD 10 WNW DEL RIO 29.43N 101.05W
05/25/2007 VAL VERDE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 377 IS CLOSED AND HIGHWAY 2523 IS CLOSED DUE TO
WATER OVER THE ROADS.

0715 AM FLOOD 10 W BANDERA 29.72N 99.24W
05/25/2007 BANDERA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY 187 FROM VANDERPOOL TO UTOPIA IS CLOSED DUE TO
WATER OVER THE ROADS.

&&

$$

PM

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