WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 144

WWUS20 KWNS 150347
SEL4
SPC WW 150347
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-151000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
PART OF FLORIDA PAN HANDLE
LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1145 PM
UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
MARIANNA FLORIDA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF VIDALIA GEORGIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 142. WATCH NUMBER 142 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
1145 PM EDT. CONTINUE...WW 143...

DISCUSSION...WHILE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER THIS
EVENING...THE SHEAR REMAINS VERY STRONG ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. WITH
A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS
STORMS CONTINUE EWD FROM SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA WITH
APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER JET AND S/W TROUGH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0496

ACUS11 KWNS 150210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150210
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-150345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 150210Z - 150345Z

SEVERE STORM THREAT /INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 03-05Z AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED.

AS OF 0155Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS
INTENSIFYING IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIAN SPINE FROM YORK
COUNTY SWWD TO ABBEVILLE AND MCCORMICK COUNTIES IN SC. 00Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE AIR MASS OVER THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL
PLAIN IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF LESS THAN 200-400
J/KG. LATEST NAM/WRF GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT STRONG MOISTURE
FLUX WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR IN THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME AS LLJ INCREASES
TO 50-60 KT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN NC.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONCURRENTLY STRENGTHEN /ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/ WITH KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES
CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

.MEAD.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

33638254 34278231 34858137 35108061 35218006 34617954
33777948 33067980 32568056 32378105 32498150 32458191

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150055
SWODY1
SPC AC 150053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE...CNTRL AND SRN GA THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN SC...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES INCLUDING THE CAROLINAS...

..SERN U.S. THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

EARLY SATURDAY EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SERN LA
NEWD TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NRN AL...THEN CONTINUES NWD AS AN
OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND KY. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM
THE LOW THROUGH NERN AL...NRN GA AND INTO SC. A LARGE CLUSTER OF
PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WITH BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS PERSISTS FROM THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL GA. AXIS OF UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
HAS SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE STORMS WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG
FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN AND CNTRL GA. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY OF 300+ M2/S2 ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS IN VICINITY
OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION. THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG...DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT CONTINUES EAST THROUGH CNTRL
AND SRN GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
SERN MS THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO POSE SOME
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE WEST OF PRIMARY LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS AND ARE MOVING INTO A REGION THAT HAS BEEN RENDERED LESS
UNSTABLE BY THE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WITHIN REGION OF
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE LOW WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH NRN GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT ACROSS GA THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS AS THE LOW DEEPENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN NWD ADVECTION OF
MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE CAROLINAS IN WAKE OF RETREATING
WARM FRONT. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENS. MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF HEATING SUGGEST MLCAPE WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG. THE MODEST INSTABILITY COULD SERVE AS A
LIMITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD
AND EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
AND VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DIAL.. 04/15/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0495

ACUS11 KWNS 150009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150009
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-150215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL PARTS OF AL/GA AND THE FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 142...143...

VALID 150009Z - 150215Z

THROUGH 01-02Z...THE GREATEST SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
FROM FAR SERN AL INTO SWRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL GA. ELSEWHERE...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 142...143...CONTINUES.

COMPLEX MCS IS ONGOING AS OF 2355Z FROM NERN GA SWWD INTO SRN AL AND
THE WRN FL PNHDL WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS /HP SUPERCELLS/ OVER
RUSSELL/BARBOUR AND COFFEE/DALE COUNTIES IN SERN AL. LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THESE MORE INTENSE STORMS OVER SERN AL WITH
LATEST FT. RUCKER SHOWING A RESULTANT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
OVER THE LAST HOUR. INDEED...KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF
55-60 KT.

DESPITE THE RELATIVELY COMPLEX NATURE OF ONGOING STORMS...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THIS MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE BOUND BY WARM FRONT /CURRENTLY EXTENDING
FROM INTERSECTION WITH MCS NEAR OR S OF CSG ESEWD TO OFF THE SERN GA
COAST/ SWD INTO WARM SECTOR OVER SWRN GA WHERE AIR MASS REMAINS
FAVORABLY MOIST AND SURFACE WINDS HAVE MAINTAINED AN ELY COMPONENT.

.MEAD.. 04/15/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

32948592 33308508 33898384 33808292 33378198 32508187
31728214 31208232 30318233 30248293 29998360 29478460
29118512 29768633 29768800 29828866 30278903 30518943
31248938 32948736

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 143

WWUS20 KWNS 142226
SEL3
SPC WW 142226
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-150400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PART OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 525 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 141. WATCH NUMBER 141 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
525 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 142...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWRN AL WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS INCREASING ALONG COLD FRONT NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS
NWRN AL INTO SERN LA. WITH MLCAPES AOA 1500 J/KG AND 50-60 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES EXPECTED
SEVERAL MORE HOURS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THREAT WILL END FROM THE
W WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..HALES

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0494

ACUS11 KWNS 142204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142204
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-142300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MS...SRN AND ERN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

VALID 142204Z - 142300Z

CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH
WILL BE NEEDED SOON.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF CURRENT
SEVERE STORMS OVER SRN AL...WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN
PLACE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG
ROTATION AT TIMES WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE
MESOCYCLONES. STRONG TORNADO LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS BULLOCK COUNTY AL
WITH HOOK ECHO AND STRONG GATE TO GATE SHEAR.

.JEWELL.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

29258983 30518963 32118848 33228798 33258676 33208482
32098540 31148618 30298653 30208749 30058828 29818872
28908900

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0493

ACUS11 KWNS 142154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142153
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-142330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN GA INTO SRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142153Z - 142330Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING E
OF WW 142 AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM THE VICINITY OF VDI
SWD TO SSE OF AYS...APPARENTLY FORCED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG NW-SE
ORIENTED WARM FRONT AND MORE N-S ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE. AIR MASS
S OF WARM FRONT AND W OF CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER S-CNTRL GA HAS BECOME
QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES OF 85-90 F...ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO
THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
REMAINS TO THE W...DEWPOINTS ARE BEING TO INCREASE FROM OFF THE
ATLANTIC OWING TO STRENGTHENING SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AS A
RESULT...AIR MASS HAS BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.

STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ THIS EVENING (00-03Z TIMEFRAME) SHOULD: 1)
SERVE TO ENHANCE INFLUX OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY INTO REGION...AND 2) AUGMENT BACKGROUND
LARGE-SCALE FORCING VIA WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. PRIOR TO THIS
TIME...STORMS MAY TEND TO REMAIN MORE ISOLATED OR IN SMALL CLUSTERS
WITH SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE.

.MEAD.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

32318218 32678181 32908150 32678106 32148085 31328104
30828132 30568159 30598194 30888222 31338240

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 142

WWUS20 KWNS 142035
SEL2
SPC WW 142035
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-150400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 435 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF MACON
GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 141...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AL WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ALONG AND NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. OTHER ISOLATED
CELLS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
SOUTHERN GA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH PARAMETERS BECOMING
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.

..HART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141952
SWODY1
SPC AC 141950

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST MS...ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AL...THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...CENTRAL
GA...AND PARTS OF SC...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

..ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EVENT EVOLVING ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN
GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SPREADING INTO SERN
STATES TONIGHT...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER SRN PLAINS WILL PHASE WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO LOWER MS VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD...RESULTING
IN STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS
MOVED INTO NWRN TN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD INTO NRN AL
THROUGH NWRN-ERN GA TO CENTRAL SC. A SECONDARY LOW HAD DEVELOPED
OVER SRN MS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH CENTRAL AL TO
CENTRAL/SRN GA. THIS SECOND LOW AND SRN WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
THE MAIN MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC FEATURES AS FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS AL INTO GA/SC.

..SERN MS/AL/FL PANHANDLE...
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SW INTO SRN AL.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SRN AL
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
LONG-LIVED TORNADOES. AREAS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO DESTABILIZE WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION TO THE S AND E OF ONGOING
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
A FEW TORNADOES. COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICATE A
RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

..GA/SC THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING EWD ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF GA FROM ONGOING UPSTREAM TSTM ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL
SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED S OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S. INFLUX OF RICH
GULF MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT...NOW LOCATED OVER NRN AL INTO CENTRAL GA
AND CENTRAL SC...CONTINUES TO RETREAT NWD. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE OUT OF AL THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS GA THIS EVENING...
AND INTO SC OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION... VISIBLE IMAGERY/REGIONAL
RADARS INDICATED CU INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND FEW TSTMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN GA WHERE AIR MASS WILL UNDERGO FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION.

RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL RESULT IN
EXTREMELY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS
REGION AFTER DARK. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.
UPSCALE ORGANIZATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
NIGHT WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
SQUALL LINE.

..NC/VA AFTER MIDNIGHT...
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN BELOW 998MB BY 12Z OVER SOUTHERN
VA. INTENSE WIND FIELDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN
A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER THIS REGION.

.PETERS.. 04/14/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0492

ACUS11 KWNS 141940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141940
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-142045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...GA...NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141940Z - 142045Z

CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING HAVE ENHANCED
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF SRN GA/NRN FL. 17Z SOUNDING FROM TLH
CLEARLY DEPICTS CAP THAT HAS SUPPRESSED WARM SECTOR
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOW DEEPENING ACROSS SWRN
GA SUGGESTING STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE ERODED INHIBITION
GREATLY. INCREASING WARM ADVECTION ACROSS GA WILL ENHANCE SUPERCELL
THREAT...ESPECIALLY ALONG WARM FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE
LONG-LIVED POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS WILL APPROACH WCNTRL GA OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z.

.DARROW.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

29598493 32058487 33548500 33458235 30188230

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0491

ACUS11 KWNS 141912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141912
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-142015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0491
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 141...

VALID 141912Z - 142015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 141 CONTINUES.

LONG-LIVED POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELL CONTINUES ITS NEWD
MOVEMENT ACROSS SCNTRL AL...COINCIDENT AND WITH NEAR STEADY WARM
FRONTAL INFLUENCES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE INLAND WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRONG SHEAR ALONG
A ZONE FROM SRN AL...NEWD INTO CNTRL GA. TORNADIC THREAT REMAINS
HIGH ALONG THIS ZONE...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF SUPERCELL OVER WILCOX
COUNTY AL.

.DARROW.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

33098650 33138524 32478500 32268493 31908510 31578505
31208511 30708489 30178515 29998503 29748501 29248498
29358539 29738573 30048636 29958747 29878830 30338838
30348874 30378906 30278934 30188944 30198959 30458966
30538953 30658954 30648932 31318937 31788938 31828890
32228892 32228842 32978832 33178784 33038784 33008734
33118730 33128718 33228713 33248705 33058692 33078663
33108642

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 140

WWUS20 KWNS 141803
SEL0
SPC WW 141803
LAZ000-MSZ000-141800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
103 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 140 ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141729
SWODY2
SPC AC 141727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL TO THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND FAR SERN VA...

..SYNOPSIS...
PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NY/PA/DELMARVA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ENEWD THROUGH SERN STATES TO ALONG/OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER VA/NC SUNDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EWD...AND BY 16/00Z SHOULD EXTEND FROM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
TO WELL EAST OF THE SC/GA COAST AND MOVING SE AWAY FROM THE FL
PENINSULA/KEYS.

..FAR SE VA/ERN CAROLINAS/SERN GA...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS/ERN GA BY START OF DAY 2. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...STRONGER FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS WEAKNESS...AND THUS
MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO PROGRESS EWD TO THE
COAST ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAINTAIN LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH
LATE DAY 1 SQUALL LINE PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
AND SERN GA/NRN FL. SHEAR VECTORS ALSO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ONE AREA OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR TORNADOES WOULD BE FROM PARTS OF SERN GA
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN SC TO ERN NC WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.

..MUCH OF FL PENINSULA...
12Z MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT/SRN EXTENT OF
ONGOING LATE DAY 1 SQUALL LINE SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE TIME TO
DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/ERN FL BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE LOCATED
MAINLY N OF MUCH OF THIS REGION...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL AND
WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ESE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.

.PETERS.. 04/14/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0490

ACUS11 KWNS 141725
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141724
NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-141830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NWRN GA...SERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141724Z - 141830Z

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR IN
NEWD EXPANSION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF RETREATING WARM
FRONT. LATEST SFC DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS WARM FRONT IS NOW NEAR
THE NRN EDGE OF WW141 AS SFC DEW POINTS ARE RISING ABOVE 60F THROUGH
CNTRL AL. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING INSTABILITY JUST
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ULTIMATELY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN
SUSTAINING ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN AL...POSSIBLY
SPREADING INTO SERN TN/NWRN GA. NEAR-SFC BASED SUPERCELLS ALONG
RETREATING WARM FRONT CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING AS TORNADO POTENTIAL
IS INCREASING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

.DARROW.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

33478814 35858527 35558386 34068471 33218601

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

368
WOUS40 KWNS 141643
PWOSPC
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-MSZ000-SCZ000-150045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA

SURROUNDING THIS AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

A POWERFUL UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. RAPID RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. OTHER INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO FORM EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN
GEORGIA...THEN EXPANDING EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA
OVERNIGHT. VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS INTERACTING WITH THE
WARM FRONT WILL POSE A RISK OF STRONG TORNADOES.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HART.. 04/14/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141632
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST MS...ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AL...THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE...CENTRAL
GA...AND PARTS OF SC....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL TRACK EASTWARD DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES
FROM NORTHERN MS INTO EASTERN VA. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM
SECTOR OF LOW WILL TRANSPORT RICH MOISTURE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ACROSS
AL/GA TODAY...AND INTO SC TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

..MS/AL TODAY...
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST MS.
THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AL
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND CAPE VALUES OVER 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICATE A RISK
OF ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

..GA/SC TONIGHT...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA. THIS WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISING
THROUGH THE 60S. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE OUT OF
AL THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS GA THIS EVENING...AND INTO SC
OVERNIGHT. RAPID DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY
STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER
DARK. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE MDT
RISK AREA...ALONG WITH ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES. UPSCALE
ORGANIZATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE NIGHT
WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREAT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF SQUALL
LINE.

..NC/VA AFTER MIDNIGHT...
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN BELOW 998MB BY 12Z OVER SOUTHERN
VA. INTENSE WIND FIELDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN
A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER THIS REGION.

.HART/JEWELL.. 04/14/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 141

WWUS20 KWNS 141525
SEL1
SPC WW 141525
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-142300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1025 AM UNTIL
600 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF SELMA
ALABAMA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 140...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MS
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...RAPID INFLUX OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PRIMARY SQUALL
LINE...ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A
FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

..HART

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0489

ACUS11 KWNS 141507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141507
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-141600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS/SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141507Z - 141600Z

SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS OCCURRING ACROSS SRN MS
INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WHERE TRUE MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS IS
NOW SURGING INLAND. RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN DEEP CONVECTION UPSTREAM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MS...ESPECIALLY INVOF MARION COUNTY. IT APPEARS UPSTREAM ZONE OF
DEEP CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EWD INTO WRN AL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE GULF COAST. TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL.

.DARROW.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

29938946 32408813 31718584 29798680

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 139

WWUS20 KWNS 141303
SEL9
SPC WW 141303
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-141300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 139 ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
LOUISIANA
MISSISSIPPI
TEXAS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141247
SWODY1
SPC AC 141245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FOR SE
MS...CENTRAL AND SRN AL...WRN GA...AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK...FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT...

..SYNOPSIS...
A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHEARING NEWD FROM OK INTO
MO/IL...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OVER W TX ROTATES EWD TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A
SEPARATE NRN STREAM WAVE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. AN INITIAL FRONTAL WAVE IN EXTREME NW MS WILL
PROGRESS GENERALLY EWD NEAR THE MS/AL/TN BORDERS DURING THE
DAY...AND THE PHASING OF THE TWO FLOW STREAMS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE TONIGHT FROM THE PIEDMONT INTO THE
TIDEWATER AREA.

..SRN MS INTO AL/SW GA AREA TODAY...
THE PHASING FLOW STREAMS AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STRONG DEEPER LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE GULF
STATES TODAY INTO THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS. THE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
IS RATHER POOR INITIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF AL/WRN GA...BUT SHOULD
IMPROVE RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY AS A RESULT OF HORIZONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND MIXING OF MOISTURE DOWNWARD. BY ROUGHLY 18Z IN
CENTRAL/SRN AL...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 66-70 F...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 75-80 F WILL
RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES WITHIN THE BROKEN
SQUALL LINE MOVING FROM MS TOWARD AL WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING
THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN
ADVANCE OF THE LINE AS THE LOW-LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WEAKENS. A FEW TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

..CAROLINAS TONIGHT...
SOMEWHAT WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LESSER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /MID
60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS/ ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH OF
300-500 M2/S2/ WILL ACCOMPANY A 50-60 KT LLJ IN THE WARM SECTOR. AN
OCCASIONAL TORNADO AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE PATH OF
THE SURFACE CYCLONE...DESPITE THE WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.

.THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 04/14/2007

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

103
WOUS40 KWNS 141213
PWOSPC
ALZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-MSZ000-142015-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
FEW TORNADOES...OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
PARTS OF WESTERN GEORGIA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
STATES INTO THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WIND
FIELDS...WHICH WILL VEER FROM SOUTHERLY NEAR THE GROUND TO WESTERLY
AT INCREASING SPEEDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
KNOWN TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...IN
ADDITION TO TORNADOES. AS THE LARGER SCALE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO INTENSIFY...AND BEGIN TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..KERR.. 04/14/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 140

WWUS20 KWNS 141211
SEL0
SPC WW 141211
LAZ000-MSZ000-141800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
710 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 710 AM UNTIL
100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI TO 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BATON ROUGE
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 139...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD FROM
LA INTO WRN MS...WHILE ADDITIONAL PRE-FRONTAL STORMS ARE FORMING IN
SE LA. GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS SE LA AND SRN/CENTRAL MS
IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...AND
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING.
ALSO...LOCAL VWP/S SHOW LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WITH STRONG
SPEED SHEAR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY
SEVERE STORM THREATS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0488

ACUS11 KWNS 141117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141117
MSZ000-LAZ000-141245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0488
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...LA...MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 139...

VALID 141117Z - 141245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 139 CONTINUES THROUGH
13Z. SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ACROSS AREAS EAST WW 139 TOWARD
MID DAY...POSSIBLY AFTER A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF ACTIVITY. A NEW
WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS NEAR PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENCE...NOW MAINLY ALONG A LINE NORTHWEST OF JACKSON MS INTO
THE LAKE CHARLES LA AREA. THIS IS WHERE ACTIVITY APPEARS ROOTED IN
DEEP NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER...WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF
1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. STORMS MAY WEAKEN AFTER DAYBREAK...BEFORE
BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL CLOSER TO
18Z...NORTHEAST OF MCCOMB INTO THE MERIDIAN AREA...WHEN/WHERE
DISCRETE NEW STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF LINE...AND TORNADO
POTENTIAL PROBABLY WILL INCREASE.

CONVECTION BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHERE IT IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. BUT...A RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS MAY
CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO ENHANCE
DOWNDRAFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ANOTHER COUPLE OF
HOURS.

.KERR.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

31949103 32579065 33029007 33158957 33068877 32848845
31538874 30038992 29739073 29839237 30759183

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140812
SWOD48
SPC AC 140812

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

..DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS TX/THE GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD THEN BECOME
ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE ERN CONUS/WRN
ATLANTIC. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OR
ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW AS IT CROSSES
THE S CENTRAL/SERN CONUS...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS MODELS HINT
THAT A SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
LOW...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS APPARENT ATTM.

.GOSS.. 04/14/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140712
SWODY3
SPC AC 140710

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NERN CONUS DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...A SECOND LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
WHILE THE NAM AND THE ECMWF INDICATE THAT THIS LOW WILL MAKE SLOW
EWD PROGRESS -- MOVING FROM SWRN AZ TO S CENTRAL NM THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER/WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GFS
TAKES THIS FEATURE FROM CENTRAL AZ AT 16/12Z INTO WRN N TX AS AN
OPEN WAVE BY 17/12Z.

IN EITHER CASE...LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..SERN NM/FAR W TX INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION...
AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS ERN NM/W TX IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN SELY
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF IS
FORECAST TO BE QUITE LIMITED...AS PRIOR FRONTAL SURGE THROUGH THE
GULF SUGGESTS THAT GULF AIR WILL BE ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED. THIS
SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...DESPITE SHEAR PROFILES
WHICH BECOME INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN NM/FAR W TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER COULD PROMOTE EVAPORATIVELY-COOLED DOWNDRAFTS...WITH A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.

SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE TX PLAINS
OVERNIGHT -- AIDED BY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY TO REMAIN
INSUFFICIENTLY-MOIST...STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED...WITH ONLY A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION. THEREFORE...WILL
INTRODUCE ONLY A 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM FAR W TX/SERN NM INTO
THE TRANSPECOS REGION -- TO COVER THESE POTENTIAL SCENARIOS.

.GOSS.. 04/14/2007

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 138

WWUS20 KWNS 140703
SEL8
SPC WW 140703
TXZ000-140700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
203 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 138 ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

TEXAS

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 139

WWUS20 KWNS 140642
SEL9
SPC WW 140642
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-141300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING FROM 140 AM UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONROE
LOUISIANA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF FORT POLK LOUISIANA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 136...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 137. WATCH
NUMBER 136 137 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 140 AM CDT.
CONTINUE...WW 138...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED INTO A NE-SW ORIENTED LINE
FROM NRN LA INTO SE TX. THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND MOVE EWD IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURFACE
WAVE ON THE FRONT ACROSS NRN LA/SE AR. MID-UPPER 60S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS ACROSS LA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY...AND SOME DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE MS RIVER
LATER THIS MORNING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH
BOWING STRUCTURES IN THE LINE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

..THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0487

ACUS11 KWNS 140634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140634
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-140730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0487
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0134 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...LA...WRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 136...138...

VALID 140634Z - 140730Z

A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT.

INTENSIFICATION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS ONGOING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF FRONTAL WAVE...EAST/SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT LA
INTO THE HOUSTON VICINITY. THIS IS APPARENTLY OCCURRING IN RESPONSE
TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL LIFT IN NARROW MOIST TONGUE CHARACTERIZED
BY LOWER 70S DEW POINTS. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS CONTRIBUTING TO
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS ACCOMPANIED BY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. AS A SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN A STRONGLY SHEARED...LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...40-50 KT MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME...SEVERE
THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE THROUGH 09-12Z ACROSS CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. BOWING SEGMENTS
MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURSTS AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AND...DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR SATURATED
PROFILES AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOWEST
KILOMETER OR SO MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES.

.KERR.. 04/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

31339325 32089264 32749180 33529084 33528984 32548966
31669036 30929118 30449208 30469295 30699324

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140602
SWODY1
SPC AC 140600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
AREA...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. INTO
THE CAROLINAS...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AREA WILL CONTINUE
EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES SATURDAY...REACHING
THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE SERN U.S. WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD
REACHING THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...

OBSERVATIONS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER THE
NWRN AND CNTRL GULF. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST
EARLY SATURDAY...THIS MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SERN U.S. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SQUALL LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
INITIAL MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...CLOUD BREAKS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG POSSIBLE. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY
PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND RESULT IN
RATHER LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE EAST DURING THE DAY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING BOW ECHOES
AND SUPERCELLS. SOME POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE NEAR THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. IF THESE STORMS MANAGE TO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
STREAM WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS
ALONG THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO MODEST
LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. STORMS WILL LIKELY
ADVANCE INTO THIS REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS
FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN DIFFLUENT REGION OF EWD
ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DIAL.. 04/14/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140552
SWODY2
SPC AC 140550

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SAT APR 14 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN VA TO FAR NERN FL...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- EXTENDING SWD FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION -- IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO MOVE EWD/OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS BOUNDARY. IN ANY CASE...THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD CLEAR FL/THE KEYS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

..SERN VA SWD INTO THE SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
STORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD OVER PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
REGION...THOUGH ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT REMAIN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN DUE TO DIFFERING MODEL GUIDANCE.

IN ANY CASE...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
HEATING GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND EARLY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
SUGGEST ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY DESPITE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
WHILE VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...EXPECT ATTM THAT OVERALL SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. THEREFORE...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 15%
SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM...FROM SERN VA SWD TO NERN FL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW/SHEAR...AN UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES
COULD BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER FORECASTS IF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND SERN GA.

.GOSS.. 04/14/2007

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