SWODY2
SPC AC 141727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2007
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FL TO THE ERN CAROLINAS
AND FAR SERN VA...
..SYNOPSIS...
PHASED NRN/SRN STREAM TROUGHS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS NY/PA/DELMARVA BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS CLOSED LOW WILL ALSO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS SRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS ENEWD THROUGH SERN STATES TO ALONG/OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES BY 12Z MONDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER VA/NC SUNDAY MORNING AND DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES NE TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EWD...AND BY 16/00Z SHOULD EXTEND FROM JUST OFF THE DELMARVA
TO WELL EAST OF THE SC/GA COAST AND MOVING SE AWAY FROM THE FL
PENINSULA/KEYS.
..FAR SE VA/ERN CAROLINAS/SERN GA...
AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN
CAROLINAS/ERN GA BY START OF DAY 2. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY...STRONGER FORCING WITH UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG
KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS WEAKNESS...AND THUS
MAINTAIN LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO PROGRESS EWD TO THE
COAST ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ORIENTATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MAINTAIN LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH
LATE DAY 1 SQUALL LINE PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS
AND SERN GA/NRN FL. SHEAR VECTORS ALSO SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ONE AREA OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR TORNADOES WOULD BE FROM PARTS OF SERN GA
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/ERN SC TO ERN NC WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE TRACK OF
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED.
..MUCH OF FL PENINSULA...
12Z MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT/SRN EXTENT OF
ONGOING LATE DAY 1 SQUALL LINE SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE TIME TO
DESTABILIZE PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/ERN FL BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE LOCATED
MAINLY N OF MUCH OF THIS REGION...STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL AND
WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ESE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.
.PETERS.. 04/14/2007
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write chris@lib.siu.edu.
No comments:
Post a Comment