KPUB [140322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 140322
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
821 PM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0802 PM SNOW WOLF CREEK PASS 37.48N 106.80W
11/13/2009 E8.0 INCH MINERAL CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ESTIMATED BY SNOW PLOW DRIVER.

&&

$$

KT

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KSEW [140145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 140145
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
545 PM PST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL LYNNWOOD 47.83N 122.30W
11/13/2009 M0.50 INCH SNOHOMISH WA NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

GRUB

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KGJT [140128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 140128
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
628 PM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM SNOW MEEKER 40.05N 107.89W
11/13/2009 M7.5 INCH RIO BLANCO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR PAST 6.5 HOURS.

0235 PM SNOW 28 N LOMA 39.61N 108.82W
11/13/2009 E6.0 INCH GARFIELD CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

REPORT FROM CDOT FOR DOUGLASS PASS ALONG HWY. 139.

0526 PM SNOW 1 SE STEAMBOAT SPRINGS 40.47N 106.81W
11/13/2009 M9.4 INCH ROUTT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT.

&&

$$

MSCHWIT

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KSEW [140104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 140104
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
503 PM PST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0503 PM HAIL 4 SW EVERETT 47.92N 122.25W
11/13/2009 M0.25 INCH SNOHOMISH WA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GRUB

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KOKX [140057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 140057
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM STORM SURGE 1 W JERSEY CITY 40.71N 74.08W
11/13/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ PUBLIC

ROAD CLOSURES ON ROUTE 7 DUE TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

$$

JSCHULZ

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KSEW [140051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 140051
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
451 PM PST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM HAIL 2 WSW EVERETT 47.95N 122.25W
11/13/2009 M0.50 INCH SNOHOMISH WA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL MEASURED BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KPDT [140048]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPDT 140048
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
448 PM PST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0439 PM SNOW 2 N MEACHAM 45.54N 118.42W
11/13/2009 M4.5 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

4.5 INCHES SNOW TODAY.

&&

$$

RC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140036
SWODY1
SPC AC 140035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0635 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 140100Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLNS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SPEED MAX TRANSLATING NEWD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE WAS PROVIDING
MODEST LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE SCTD ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TSTMS WERE
CONFINED TO AREAS W OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH THE AFTN...LOW TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL SPREAD ONTO THE HIGHER PLNS THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT.
00Z DNR SOUNDING EXHIBITED 150 J/KG MUCAPE BASED AROUND 600 MB AND
NEARLY 8 DEG C PER KM 3-6KM LAPSE RATES. BANDED PCPN EVOLVING
ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR ALREADY CONTAINS SPORADIC LIGHTNING AND
EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE CASE ACROSS MOST OF ERN CO AND PERHAPS NWRN
KS AND SWRN NEB OVERNIGHT.

..RACY.. 11/14/2009

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KBYZ [132337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KBYZ 132337
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
437 PM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SNOW 11 N ROUNDUP 46.61N 108.54W
11/12/2009 M10.0 INCH MUSSELSHELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1100 AM SNOW 10 W LIVINGSTON 45.66N 110.77W
11/12/2009 M12.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM SNOW SE CLYDE PARK 45.88N 110.61W
11/12/2009 M15.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM SNOW 3 SSW LUTHER 45.24N 109.46W
11/12/2009 M8.4 INCH CARBON MT MESONET

BURNT MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

0500 PM SNOW NNE RYEGATE 46.30N 109.25W
11/12/2009 M8.0 INCH GOLDEN VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM SNOW 6 ENE LIVINGSTON 45.70N 110.45W
11/12/2009 E11.0 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM SNOW 12 ENE WILSALL 46.07N 110.44W
11/12/2009 M20.4 INCH PARK MT MESONET

SOUTH FORK SHIELDS SNOTEL

0500 PM SNOW 3 N COOKE CITY 45.06N 109.92W
11/12/2009 M15.6 INCH PARK MT MESONET

FISHER CREEK SNOTEL

0500 PM SNOW 4 W MELVILLE 46.10N 110.03W
11/12/2009 M15.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM SNOW BIG TIMBER 45.83N 109.95W
11/12/2009 M12.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM SNOW 12 ENE WILSALL 46.07N 110.44W
11/12/2009 M15.6 INCH PARK MT MESONET

PORCUPINE SNOTEL

0600 PM SNOW 1 S MC LEOD 45.65N 110.12W
11/12/2009 M9.0 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM SNOW 7 S ROSCOE 45.25N 109.50W
11/12/2009 M7.0 INCH CARBON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

STC

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KPHI [132331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 132331
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 PM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HIGH SUST WINDS WILDWOOD 38.99N 74.82W
11/13/2009 E55 MPH CAPE MAY NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOFS BLOWN OFF 3 MOTELS --- CAPRICE, OCEAN SANDS, AND
KNOLLS --- DAMAGE OCCURRED BETWEEN 11 PM AND 3 AM ---
WINDS IN AREA EST 55 TO 60 MPH

&&

$$

RPW

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KCYS [132134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 132134
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
233 PM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HEAVY RAIN 8 E DIX 41.23N 103.33W
11/13/2009 M0.00 INCH CHEYENNE NE MESONET

APPROX NEAR THE AIRPORT AT KIMBEL.

0133 PM SNOW CHEYENNE 41.15N 104.79W
11/13/2009 M1.0 INCH LARAMIE WY ASOS

&&

$$

DDEAL

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KRIW [131944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 131944
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1230 PM MDT FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1029 AM SNOW JACKSON HOLE-RAYMER 43.60N 110.85W
11/13/2009 M3.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

1030 AM SNOW DUBOIS 23 NW 43.73N 110.01W
11/13/2009 M2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY BTAVAL

BROOKS LAKE LODGE

1031 AM HEAVY SNOW THAYNE 17.2 E 42.97N 110.61W
11/13/2009 M6.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY BTAVAL

BLIND BULL SUMMIT

1031 AM SNOW THAYNE 14.3 E 42.87N 110.71W
11/13/2009 M1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY BTAVAL

BOX Y RANCH

1032 AM SNOW JACKSON HOLE-BASE 43.58N 110.85W
11/13/2009 M0.50 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

1032 AM SNOW JACKSON HOLE-MID 43.59N 110.84W
11/13/2009 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY PARK/FOREST SRVC

1040 AM SNOW CASPER 1.6 S 42.80N 106.33W
11/13/2009 M2.60 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 AM SNOW THAYNE 42.91N 111.00W
11/13/2009 M2.50 INCHES LINCOLN WY PUBLIC

1042 AM SNOW CASPER 4.3 WSW 42.81N 106.41W
11/13/2009 M2.10 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1042 AM SNOW CASPER 2.7 NNE 42.86N 106.31W
11/13/2009 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1042 AM SNOW CASPER 11.7 SW 42.78N 106.53W
11/13/2009 M1.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1043 AM SNOW CASPER 9.7 WSW 42.76N 106.49W
11/13/2009 M1.30 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1043 AM SNOW CASPER 10.7 ESE 42.77N 106.13W
11/13/2009 M0.50 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1044 AM SNOW ROCK SPRINGS 0.7 WNW 41.60N 109.23W
11/13/2009 M0.40 INCHES SWEETWATER WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW MOOSE .4 S 43.65N 110.71W
11/13/2009 M0.50 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW CODY 5.0 ESE 44.49N 108.96W
11/13/2009 M0.60 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW CODY 2.4 WSW 44.51N 109.09W
11/13/2009 M0.50 INCHES PARK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1046 AM SNOW KEMMERER 20.5 NNW 42.06N 110.67W
11/13/2009 M0.30 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1217 PM HEAVY SNOW CANYON 1 WSW 44.72N 110.51W
11/13/2009 E6.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

CANYON SNOTEL

1217 PM HEAVY SNOW PAHASKA 10 W 44.48N 110.16W
11/13/2009 E6.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW PAHASKA 4 WSW 44.48N 110.04W
11/13/2009 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

1217 PM HEAVY SNOW OLD FAITHFUL 14 ESE 44.37N 110.58W
11/13/2009 E6.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL

1221 PM HEAVY SNOW MORAN JUNCTION 25 NE 44.15N 110.22W
11/13/2009 E7.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL

1222 PM SNOW ALTA 6 ENE 43.78N 110.93W
11/13/2009 E2.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL

1222 PM SNOW JACKSON 8 WNW 43.52N 110.91W
11/13/2009 E1.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL

1223 PM SNOW MILLS 42.84N 106.38W
11/13/2009 M1.80 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1224 PM SNOW AFTON 42.71N 110.92W
11/13/2009 M1.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1226 PM SNOW CASPER 7 S 42.74N 106.35W
11/13/2009 M3.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

1227 PM SNOW CASPER 8 S 42.73N 106.32W
11/13/2009 E4.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

CASPER MOUNTAIN SNOTEL

&&

$$

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KCYS [131940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131940
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1240 PM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM SNOW RIVERSIDE 41.21N 106.78W
11/13/2009 M7.5 INCH CARBON WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131920
SWODY1
SPC AC 131918

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...4-CORNERS...

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
SWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AZ...NEWD INTO CO
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIGHTNING-FREE A FEW DEEPER UPDRAFTS HAVE ON OCCASION PRODUCED
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY FROM WCNTRL CO TOWARD THE
SAN FRANCISCO MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL AZ. FOR THIS REASON WILL ADJUST
THE THUNDER LINE TO INCLUDE MORE OF AZ.

..DARROW/COOK.. 11/13/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009/

...FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA /OVER NRN AZ
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL EJECT E/NEWD ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE PATH OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD LEAD TO MEAGER
BUOYANCY...WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...WA COAST...
AS MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET /-30 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AMIDST A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON.

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KVEF [131909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 131909
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1109 AM PST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 AM NON-TSTM WND GST SIERRA ROTORS 01 36.77N 118.28W
11/12/2009 M62.00 MPH INYO CA MESONET

1134 AM NON-TSTM WND GST RED ROCK CANYON RAWS 36.14N 115.43W
11/12/2009 M52.00 MPH CLARK NV MESONET

&&

$$

FUI

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KCYS [131908]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131908
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1208 PM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 PM SNOW 2 S LARAMIE 41.28N 105.58W
11/13/2009 M6.3 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

2 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE 10 AM.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KBOU [131800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 131800
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1100 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0924 AM SNOW 13 NNW GLENDEVEY 40.95N 106.05W
11/13/2009 M4.0 INCH LARIMER CO UNKNOWN

0924 AM SNOW 9 SSW RUSTIC 40.58N 105.64W
11/13/2009 M1.0 INCH LARIMER CO UNKNOWN

0924 AM SNOW VIRGINIA DALE 40.95N 105.35W
11/13/2009 M2.0 INCH LARIMER CO CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

BLOUIS

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KCYS [131726]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131726
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1026 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW 1 SE LARAMIE 41.30N 105.57W
11/13/2009 E5.0 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [131723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131723
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1023 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1022 AM SNOW BAGGS 41.04N 107.66W
11/13/2009 E7.0 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

AMOUNTS VARY FROM 6-8 INCHES. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY OFF
AND ON.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [131720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131720
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1020 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1017 AM SNOW 16 SE SARATOGA 41.29N 106.59W
11/13/2009 E1.5 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1.5 INCHES OF SNOW SINCE 7 AM.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [131702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KCYS 131702
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1002 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM SNOW 18 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.11W
11/13/2009 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [131653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131653
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
953 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM SNOW 18 WNW CHEYENNE 41.24N 105.11W
11/13/2009 M4.0 INCH LARAMIE WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131640
SWODY2
SPC AC 131639

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIGGING EQUATOR-WARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT TROUGH INTENSIFICATION AND
EVENTUALLY LOW FORMATION OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION DURING THE DAY
TWO PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO...WHILE
FATHER E...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
U.S. TROUGHS WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN ARC NWWD
TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH WRN EXTENSION OF
FEATURE SAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO VALLEY.

...FOUR CORNERS REGION...

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AS INCREASED FORCING FOR
ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF DIGGING JET STREAK ACTS
ON STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

...OK...

PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY FLOW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT
THE NWD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE
N OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PROGRESSIVELY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE INCREASING TO
AROUND 500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENTLY COOL THERMAL PROFILES TO SUPPORT
LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 11/13/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131625
SWODY1
SPC AC 131623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA /OVER NRN AZ
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL EJECT E/NEWD ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE PATH OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD LEAD TO MEAGER
BUOYANCY...WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...WA COAST...
AS MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET /-30 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AMIDST A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS/EVANS.. 11/13/2009

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KCYS [131554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131554
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
854 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM SNOW 2 S LARAMIE 41.28N 105.58W
11/13/2009 M3.3 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0850 AM SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/13/2009 E2.0 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS IN TOWN MAINLY WET WITH SNOW IN THE GRASS.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KCYS [131526]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131526
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
826 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 AM SNOW ENCAMPMENT 41.21N 106.79W
11/13/2009 M10.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

VERY WET SNOW.

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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KTFX [131525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 131525
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
824 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 S BOZEMAN 45.61N 111.06W
11/13/2009 M30.0 INCH GALLATIN MT PUBLIC

ELEVATION 5200 FEET MSL LOTS OF BROKEN TREE BRANCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER TFX0900054

$$

BLANK

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KLWX [131511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 131511
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1011 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BROOMES ISLAND 38.42N 76.54W
11/13/2009 CALVERT MD 911 CENTER

TREE BLOWN DOWN NEAR BROOMES ISLAND RESULTING IN CLOSED
ROADWAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX0900472

$$

KRAMAR

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KLWX [131448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 131448
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
948 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM FLOOD 1 WNW LEONARDTOWN 38.30N 76.66W
11/12/2009 ST. MARYS MD 911 CENTER

ROAD CLOSED FROM HIGH WATER NEAR MCINTOSH RUN AT MD-243
AND MD-5. SCHOOLS DELAYED AS A RESULT OF FLOODED
ROADWAYS AND NEED TO REROUTE TRAFFIC ACROSS THE COUNTY
FROM ADDITIONAL FLOODED ROADWAYS. FLOODING ONGOING AT
930 AM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX0900471

$$

KRAMAR

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KCYS [131447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 131447
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
747 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW LARAMIE 41.31N 105.58W
11/13/2009 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

MOSTLY ON THE GRASS WITH WET ROADS.

0630 AM SNOW RAWLINS 41.78N 107.23W
11/13/2009 E1.0 INCH CARBON WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS WET. SNOW ON THE GRASS. HANNA HAS 2-3 INCHES OF
SNOW WITH ICY/SLUSHY ROADS.

0707 AM SNOW 20 W CHEYENNE 41.14N 105.18W
11/13/2009 E3.0 INCH LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

0712 AM SNOW SARATOGA 41.45N 106.81W
11/13/2009 E4.0 INCH CARBON WY LAW ENFORCEMENT

0714 AM SNOW 14 SE SARATOGA 41.31N 106.62W
11/13/2009 E12.0 INCH CARBON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 AM SNOW CENTENNIAL 41.30N 106.11W
11/13/2009 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 AM SNOW WSW SARATOGA 24SW 41.40N 107.26W
11/13/2009 M7.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0300 AM SNOW N DIVIDE PEAK 41.30N 107.15W
11/13/2009 M12.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0300 AM SNOW N BATTLE MOUNTAIN 41.05N 107.27W
11/13/2009 M6.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0400 AM SNOW 2 E BATTLE LAKE 41.15N 106.97W
11/13/2009 M14.3 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0600 AM SNOW 1 WNW HANNA 27NW 41.16N 106.93W
11/13/2009 M9.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0500 AM SNOW 4 NW HOG PARK RESERVOIR 41.07N 106.94W
11/13/2009 M10.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0500 AM SNOW 3 SW HOG PARK RESERVOIR 41.00N 106.91W
11/13/2009 M6.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0400 AM SNOW 1 NNE RYAN PARK 41.33N 106.50W
11/13/2009 M10.0 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

0300 AM SNOW 4 W RYAN PARK 41.33N 106.58W
11/13/2009 M14.3 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0300 AM SNOW N SAND LAKE 41.46N 106.28W
11/13/2009 M12.1 INCH CARBON WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0600 AM SNOW ENE LARAMIE 4SE 41.23N 105.38W
11/13/2009 M1.0 INCH ALBANY WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0300 AM SNOW N LAPRELE CREEK 42.44N 105.86W
11/13/2009 M5.0 INCH CONVERSE WY MESONET

SNOTEL

0300 AM SNOW N RENO HILL 42.57N 106.09W
11/13/2009 M3.0 INCH NATRONA WY MESONET

SNOTEL

&&

$$

BCHAPMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131254
SWODY1
SPC AC 131253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT ENEWD
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE LOWER CO VALLEY
TO CO/NM...AND AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO
THE GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC BAND ALONG THE WA COAST...AND
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY IN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATE/POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. MEANWHILE...THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW JUST OFF THE NC COAST /AND THE ACCOMPANYING
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ WILL DRIFT EWD/OFFSHORE BY TONIGHT.

A WEAK LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP SWD FROM KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE/ WRN
OK BY TONIGHT. THE INDUCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW A MODIFYING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS NWD
FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR DEEP
CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE WARM SECTOR. INSTEAD...A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE PATH OF THE
EJECTING LOWER CO VALLEY TROUGH...WHERE WEAK MID LEVEL
ASCENT/MOISTENING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY.
MID LEVEL CONVECTION COULD ALSO SPREAD ENEWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REMNANT LAPSE RATE PLUME AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS.

..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 11/13/2009

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KAKQ [131228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 131228
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
728 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES OCEAN CITY 38.36N 75.07W
11/13/2009 WORCESTER MD EMERGENCY MNGR

PARTS OF PHILADELPHIA AVENUE CLOSED DUE TO TIDAL
FLOODING.

&&

$$

05

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KPUB [131111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 131111
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
411 AM MST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 AM SNOW WOLF CREEK PASS 37.48N 106.80W
11/13/2009 E2.0 INCH MINERAL CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130959
SWOD48
SPC AC 130959

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 AND DAY-3 OUTLOOKS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-4/16TH-17TH. MOST DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY
AND TEMPORARILY CUT OFF OVER LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DAYS
5-6/17TH-19TH. WHILE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER GULF COAST
STATES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNS
REGARDING SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES...MOISTURE RETURN AND BUOYANCY
PRECLUDE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SVR THREAT TO ASSIGN A 30%
GRID-PROBABILITY LINE. THEREAFTER...THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ABSORBED AGAIN INTO PREVAILING WLYS...WITH GEN TENDENCY FOR HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS WRN CONUS DAYS 7-8/19TH-21ST.
ATTM...CRITICAL MESOSCALE DETAILS AND CHARACTER OF RETURN MOISTURE
EACH APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN FOR OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2009

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KMHX [130854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 130854
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 AM EST FRI NOV 13 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 AM STORM SURGE KITTY HAWK 36.07N 75.72W
11/13/2009 E3.00 FT DARE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 12 IN KITTY HAWK IS INUNDATED WITH OCEAN OVERWASH
AND IS IMPASSABLE FROM OCEAN BLVD TO KITTY HAWK RD.

&&

$$

SKENNEDY

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130756
SWODY3
SPC AC 130755

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN CONUS MID-UPPER LOW...DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN DAY-2
OUTLOOK...IS FCST TO MOVE FROM 4-CORNERS REGION ACROSS SRN ROCKIES
TO TX PANHANDLE DURING PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT SFC
FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOME PART OF CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX
DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD...WITH LOW MOVING ENEWD TOWARD ARKLATEX
REGION BY 16/12Z. COLD FRONT THEN SHOULD MOVE SEWD FROM
W-CENTRAL/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL AND N-CENTRAL TX THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. MEANWHILE...

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
PACIFIC INVOF 33N135W. GIVEN ITS PRESENCE OVER LARGE OBSERVATIONAL
DATA VOID...MODELS APPEAR TO BE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN FCST OF
THIS FEATURE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MEX EARLY THIS PERIOD...THEN EWD
ACROSS LOWER-MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND S-CENTRAL TX AFTER
16/00Z...WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES.

...ARKLATEX REGION TO CENTRAL/SW TX...
THOUGH STILL INCOMPLETE WITH REGARD TO OPTIMAL AIR-SEA EQUILIBRIUM
CONDITIONS OVER GULF...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED BY
DAY-3 TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE SWATHS OF CONVECTION..ON
EITHER SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT.

GIVEN POSITIVELY TILTED NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH AND ITS RELATIVE
DETACHMENT/DISPLACEMENT FROM WARM SECTOR...850 MB WINDS SE OF COLD
FRONT ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK DURING LATE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...LIMITING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. BY CONTRAST...SE FRINGE
OF 500 AND 250 MB JETS WILL OVERSPREAD FRONTAL ZONE AND AT LEAST
SMALL SLICE OF WARM SECTOR...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SYSTEM GEOMETRY/TIMING WILL KEEP NEARLY ALL
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN
TROUGH AWAY FROM SFC WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE MIDLEVEL
DPVA/DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR WITH WEAKER SRN-STREAM SYSTEM...LAPSE
RATES ALOFT STILL WILL BE WEAK...COMBINING WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
THETAE TO LIMIT BOTH DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY. THOUGH AT
LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN AGGREGATE...SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN ATTM FOR SPECIFIC
AREA OF AOA 5% GRID PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130556
SWODY2
SPC AC 130555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN TRANSITION WILL FAVOR RISING HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF
ERN CONUS...IN WAKE OF DEPARTING DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW JUST
OFFSHORE OUTER BANKS...AND MORE WIDESPREAD TROUGHING ACROSS WRN
CONUS. INITIALLY SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ORE/ID BORDER AND OVER N-CENTRAL MT TO
S-CENTRAL SK -- ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE TOGETHER...MOVE EWD... AND
DEVELOP NEARLY CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER ND BY 14/12Z. THIS CYCLONE
THEN SHOULD CONTRACT AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN SHORE OF LS IN
ONT...BY END OF PERIOD. UPSTREAM PERTURBATION IS AMPLIFYING ATTM W
OF VANCOUVER ISLAND...AND SHOULD DIG SEWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN EARLY
IN PERIOD. BY 15/00Z...TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AZ NWD TO
NRN ROCKIES..ANCHORED BY SMALL/CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER UT. AT END OF
PERIOD...POSITIVELY TILTED AND HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS TO NWRN MEX...WITH EMBEDDED/MID-UPPER LOW
BETWEEN 4-CORNERS AREA AND SRN ROCKIES.

SFC COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB
TO FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NRN CO -- IS FCST TO EXTEND FROM UPPER MS
VALLEY LOW SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO AND NWRN OK BY 14/12Z. SFC CYCLONE
WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS LS REGION BY 15/12Z...IN RESPONSE TO NRN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...COLD FRONT WILL REACH TO NEAR CENTRAL
INDIANA...OZARKS...RED RIVER REGION AND PORTIONS WRN/NWRN TX.

STG LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AHEAD
OF MID-UPPER TROUGHING...AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS FCST TO BE RATHER
FEEBLE...GIVEN PERSISTENCE/SIZE OF CYCLONE MOVING OFFSHORE E
COAST...AND LONGEVITY OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE TRAJECTORIES IN ITS
WAKE. AS SUCH...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL. POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS
WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL...MRGL AND ISOLATED AT BEST.

LATE IN PERIOD...MIDLEVEL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BEHIND SFC
FRONT...DEEPLY ENOUGH TO POSE SOME CONCERN FOR THUNDER BETWEEN SRN
ROCKIES AND NRN OK...RELATED LARGELY TO STG DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION ALOFT. ATTM IT APPEARS LACK OF DEEPER BUOYANT LAYER
AND OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ENOUGH UNCONDITIONAL TSTM
POTENTIAL FOR CATEGORICAL GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130547
SWODY1
SPC AC 130545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED ON FRI AS A
WRN STATES TROUGH DEEPENS. WITHIN THE NRN STREAM...A WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL TRAVEL EWD INTO THE NRN PLNS
STATES BY FRI NIGHT AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS INTO THE PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM JETLET OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN WILL QUICKLY
EJECT NEWD AND WEAKEN OVER THE CNTRL PLNS DURING THE DAY.
DOWNSTREAM...DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE ALONG THE CAROLINA CST WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE EWD INTO THE WRN ATLC BASIN.

IN THE LWR-LVLS...CDFNT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS EARLY FRI WILL
CONTINUE A SEWD/SWD MOVEMENT TO A LK SUP...IA...ERN KS...NWRN OK AND
NERN NM LINE BY 12Z SATURDAY. WRN EXTENTS OF THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
STNRY AS CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION LATE IN
THE DAY.

...FOUR-CORNERS REGION TO THE CNTRL PLNS...
SURGES OF FRESH CP AIR HAVE PENETRATED WELL S INTO THE NWRN
CARIBBEAN AND SRN MEX/CNTRL AMERICA DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO.
CONSEQUENTLY...DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING WRN
STATES TROUGH WILL ONLY MANAGE TO TRANSPORT A HIGHLY MODIFIED CP AIR
MASS NWD THROUGH TX INTO THE PLNS. LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH EXPECTED WARM MID-LVL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/TSTM PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR.

HIGHER TSTM CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION NEWD TO THE CNTRL PLNS. LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE WRN STATES TROUGH DEVELOPS. STEEP LAPSE RATE
PLUME AND MOISTENING PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING BANDS OF
CONVECTION AND WDLY SCTD TSTMS FROM LATE FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTN W
OF THE CONTDVD...THEN DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS. NO SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.

...PAC NW...
CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRI MORNING
INTO THE AFTN WITHIN THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS WRN WA AND
NWRN ORE. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL.

..RACY/JEWELL.. 11/13/2009

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