Friday, November 13, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131920
SWODY1
SPC AC 131918

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0118 PM CST FRI NOV 13 2009

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...4-CORNERS...

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN
SWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL AZ...NEWD INTO CO
AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIGHTNING-FREE A FEW DEEPER UPDRAFTS HAVE ON OCCASION PRODUCED
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESPECIALLY FROM WCNTRL CO TOWARD THE
SAN FRANCISCO MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL AZ. FOR THIS REASON WILL ADJUST
THE THUNDER LINE TO INCLUDE MORE OF AZ.

..DARROW/COOK.. 11/13/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009/

...FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA /OVER NRN AZ
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL EJECT E/NEWD ONTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE PATH OF THIS IMPULSE SHOULD LEAD TO MEAGER
BUOYANCY...WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...WA COAST...
AS MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET /-30 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ SHIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AMIDST A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES THIS AFTERNOON.

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