DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070044
SWODY1
SPC AC 070041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL AND SRN CA...

UPPER TROUGH OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL CONTINUE DROPPING SWD
TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER JET HAS ROTATED AROUND THE BASE OF THIS
TROUGH WITH EXIT REGION EXTENDING INTO S CNTRL CA . NORTH OF THIS
JET STREAK...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM WAS EVIDENT NEAR THE CNTRL CA
COAST. STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF THE UPPER JET AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN CA AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES SWD.

WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DROP SWD TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WEST OF THE SRN CA COASTAL MOUNTAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO BACK...AIDED BY LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS ALREADY INDICATE LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THIS REGION BACKING FROM
SW TO SSWLY. LOCAL BACKING OF THE WINDS WITH TIME BENEATH THE UPPER
JET CORE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT
ROTATION. THREAT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE...BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT OVERALL
THREAT.

..DIAL.. 02/07/2009

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KCYS [070032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 070032
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
531 PM MST FRI FEB 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M63 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST ARLINGTON 41.59N 106.21W
02/06/2009 M66 MPH CARBON WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M71 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M68 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0145 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M68 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0155 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M72 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0205 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M73 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M69 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0305 PM HIGH SUST WINDS BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
02/06/2009 M45 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SUSTAINED 43-53 MPH FROM 1105 AM-305 PM MST WITH ONE
SEMI-TRAILER BLOWN OVER ON INTERSTATE 25.

&&

$$

JLH

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KHNX [062310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 062310
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
310 PM PST FRI FEB 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 E GOSHEN 36.35N 119.40W
02/06/2009 TULARE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BPET

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0067

ACUS11 KWNS 062011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062010
CAZ000-062245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN CA...INCLUDING L.A. BASIN AND CHANNEL
ISLANDS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 062010Z - 062245Z

CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER PACIFIC WATERS -- RELATED TO MID/UPPER
PERTURBATION APCHG SRN CA COAST -- IS OCCURRING ON N END OF
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING WELL SSWWD ACROSS
PACIFIC. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH
REMAINDER AFTERNOON...LEADING TO ISOLATED TSTMS AS REGIME SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS COASTAL SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...L.A. AND ORANGE COUNTIES.
DEEPER SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS MOVING TOWARD
SHORE...AND ISOLATED HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONAL/BRIEF
TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP JUST INLAND AS WELL. ATTM...SVR
THREAT APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR WW.

MAIN CONVECTIVE REGIME IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD/SEWD FROM SBA AREA
ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS. STG MIDLEVEL WINDS
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE SHEAR THROUGH CLOUD-BEARING
LAYER...ATOP REGIME OF WEAK CINH AND SFC DEW POINTS 50S F. PRIMARY
FACTORS OTHERWISE INFLUENCING SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE...
1. MRGL AMBIENT LOW LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WILL RESTRICT HODOGRAPH
SIZE...ALTHOUGH THIS EFFECT MAY BE OFFSET LOCALLY BY OROGRAPHICALLY
FORCED BACKING. PRECONVECTIVE VANDENBERG VWP INDICATED SUFFICIENT
LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT SMALL/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS...AND WEAK
CYCLONIC SHEAR HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN A FEW CELLS OFFSHORE SANTA
BARBARA COUNTY.
2. LACK OF MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER --
REINFORCED BY UPSLOPE ADVECTION OF COOL/MOIST MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER
-- WILL MIX AWAY ONLY SLOWLY AND IN ERRATIC FRAGMENTS. MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS INDICATE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S F WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO BOOST
MLCAPES TO 300-400 J/KG...OCCASIONALLY REACHING UPWARD INTO ICING
LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LIGHTNING.

..EDWARDS.. 02/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON 34442001 34471990 34461972 34461958 34391933 34291881
34281830 34181789 33791774 33541777 32811833 32791845
32951859 33031860 33031858 33291830 33331848 33461864
33211941 33271956 34001884 34081906 34111916 34251927
34101945 33951965 33941993 33882013 34002016 34182004
34442001

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061946
SWODY1
SPC AC 061943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 PM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN AND CNTRL CA...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF
THE COAST OF CA WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A DRY SLOT LOCATED ABOUT
150 TO 200 STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE WEST OF LOS ANGELES. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS LIKELY MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THIS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE LIFT ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL CA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS ALONG
WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTS OF SRN AND CNTRL
CA TO THE WRN MOJAVE DESERT AND SRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT ALONG THE CA COAST
NORTH AND WEST OF LOS ANGELES. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT
VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE SHOWS ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-1KM SHEAR. THIS
WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS FROM THE COASTAL MTN
RANGES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST OF CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 02/06/2009

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KREV [061853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 061853
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1053 AM PST FRI FEB 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
02/06/2009 M5.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

4.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT AT MAMMOTH RANGER
STATION. ELEVATION 7800 FEET.

1000 AM SNOW 4 W PROSSER CREEK RESER 39.37N 120.25W
02/06/2009 M3.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR TAHOE DONNER.
ELEVATION 6500 FEET.

&&

$$

HOON

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061714
SWODY2
SPC AC 061711

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM JUST
OFF THE SRN CA COAST INLAND ACROSS SRN CA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. AT
MID-LEVELS...THE EXIT REGION OF AN 80 TO 95 KT JET MAX WILL DRIFT
EWD ACROSS SRN CA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN
SPITE OF LOW CAPE VALUES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF SRN CA AND SW AZ SHOW RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS COMBINED WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF
THE JET AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED PARTIALLY DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE PRESENT IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 02/06/2009

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KMFR [061556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 061556
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
756 AM PST FRI FEB 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
02/06/2009 M1.58 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

0751 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
02/06/2009 M1.58 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

SPENCER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061554
SWODY1
SPC AC 061551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0951 AM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN CA...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
CA COASTLINE THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE BECOMING EVIDENT ON RADAR
LOOPS APPROACHING POINT CONCEPTION. THUS FAR...NO LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED WITH FRONTAL ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CA COAST SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET MAY
AID UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND LEAD TO A THREAT OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR PROFILES AND ALSO POSE A RISK OF
AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO.

..HART.. 02/06/2009

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KSGX [061438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 061438
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
638 AM PST FRI FEB 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 NNE RANCHO CUCAMONGA 34.25N 117.52W
02/06/2009 M2.92 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

RAIN BEGAN AT 1445 PST ON 2/5/09. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
STARTED AROUND AT 1830 PST ON 2/5/09 AND DURING THE NEXT
90 MINUTES 1.38 INCHES OF RAIN FELL. RAINFALL RATES
RETURNED TO LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTER 2115 PST ON 2/5/09.
TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 15 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 0545 PST
ON 2/6/09 WAS 2.92 INCHES.

0605 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 E CRESTLINE 34.24N 117.24W
02/06/2009 M2.11 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

RAIN BEGAN AT 1504 PST 2/5/09. DURING THE NEXT 13 HOURS
2.11 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

0615 AM HEAVY RAIN PALOMAR MOUNTAIN 33.36N 116.83W
02/06/2009 M2.15 INCH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

RAIN BEGAN AROUND 1515 PST 2/5/09. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OCCURED BETWEEN 1815 AND 2015 PST. TOTATL
RAINFALL IN THE 15 HOURS ENDING AT 0615 PST 2/6/09 WAS
2.15 INCHES.

0620 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WNW DEVORE 34.23N 117.48W
02/06/2009 M2.15 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

RAIN BEGAN AROUND 1420 PST 2/5/09. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES OCCURED BETWEEN 1820 AND 2020 PST. TOTAL
RAINFALL IN 16 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 0620 PST 2/6/09 WAS
2.15 INCHES.

&&

$$

RBALFO

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KMFR [061344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 061344
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
544 AM PST FRI FEB 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 AM HEAVY RAIN MOUNT SHASTA 41.32N 122.32W
02/06/2009 M1.73 INCH SISKIYOU CA ASOS

18-HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 4 AM PST

&&

$$

SPILDE

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KMFR [061336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 061336
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
536 AM PST FRI FEB 06 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM HEAVY SNOW 1 S MOUNT SHASTA 41.31N 122.32W
02/06/2009 M15.0 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 5 AM PST. MEASURED AT THE SKI
BOWL SOUTH SIDE.

&&

$$

SPILDE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 061001
SWOD48
SPC AC 061000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES WILL BECOME PROMINENT DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROVIDING
POTENTIAL FOR REPETITIVE SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING/SHEAR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO CERTAINLY
SUGGESTS INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN TIER STATES...PARTICULARLY IN COMPARISON TO THE RECENT
EXTENDED LULL IN THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RECENT COLD INTRUSIONS
HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY IMPACTED MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATES LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS STILL ONGOING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST ECMWF AND
MREF SUGGEST THAT A MODERATE TO STRONG INLAND RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE COULD COMMENCE IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL STRONG IMPULSE
ACCELERATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS BEGINS TO
GROW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...AS IT IS
PROGGED TO ADVANCE TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AND...
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS GROWS CONSIDERABLY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 02/06/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060829
SWODY3
SPC AC 060827

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST FRI FEB 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT POLAR
WESTERLIES...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN U.S./NORTHWEST MEXICAN PLATEAU
REGION...AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THE LEAD SYSTEM...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A 90+ KT 500 MB JET
STREAK...IS PROGGED TO SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 50-70 KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

A RETURN FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY
BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF A SERIES OF RECENT COLD
INTRUSIONS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL
STILL BE ONGOING...AND THE QUALITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
IS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT. THIS WILL HAMPER DESTABILIZATION...AND
PROBABLY WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EVOLVING SYNOPTIC SYSTEM.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH A DRY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
RESTRICT SURFACE HEATING SUNDAY...AS FAR WEST AS THE TEXAS SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE REGION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS INDICATE STEEP ENOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR CAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 500+ J/KG...EVEN WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 50S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS STRONG FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ADVANCING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY EVENING.
IF STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN A DISCRETE MANNER...LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...RAPID EVOLUTION OF A NARROW SQUALL LINE
APPEARS MUCH MORE LIKELY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE
EARLY STAGES OF THE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WITH THE STRONGER FORCING TOWARD
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HOWEVER...BASED ON PROGGED WARMING OF
LIFTED PARCEL EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIGHTNING MAY NOT.

..KERR.. 02/06/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060545
SWODY2
SPC AC 060544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LESS AMPLIFIED SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL DRYING STILL APPEARS TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BUT...WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WITHIN A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. FURTHER SLOW
MOISTENING AND INLAND ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND ALONG A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN STREAM...ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AS AN UPSTREAM
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...ARE PROGGED TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...TOWARD THE BAJA
SPUR...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AND...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK OF LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE
INFLOW...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE POST-COLD FRONTAL CLOUD COVER.
BUT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES NORTH/EAST
OF A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER COULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU...MAINLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...EAST OF THE ROCKIES...
MODELS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MOISTENING OCCURS WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
REGIME NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE...FROM PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. HOWEVER...EVEN ACROSS THIS
REGION...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEARS TOO
STRONG FOR AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 02/06/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060541
SWODY1
SPC AC 060538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CST THU FEB 05 2009

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE U.S. THIS
PERIOD DOWNSTREAM FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NERN PACIFIC THAT
WILL CONTINUE SWD BEFORE EVENTUALLY CLOSING OFF JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SRN CA COAST.

...CNTRL AND SRN CA...

VORTICITY MAXIMUM NORTH OF A STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER JET WILL ADVANCE
INLAND THROUGH CNTRL CA EARLY FRIDAY. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG WITH
A SWLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD THROUGH
CNTRL AND S CNTRL CA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SWD.

THOUGH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A
THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES FROM -24 TO -26 C AT 500 MB WILL
SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE STATE AND CONTRIBUTE TO 7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRIMARILY ACROSS CNTRL CA DURING THE DAY. SURFACE LOW FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL HELP MAINTAIN SWLY ONSHORE
FLOW BENEATH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO DESTABILIZATION PRIMARILY ALONG THE CNTRL AND S CNTRL CA COASTAL
REGIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SRN COASTAL REGION BY EVENING. THE
EARLY ONSET OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IN MOST AREAS WITH MUCAPE BELOW 500 J/KG
EXPECTED.

CHANNELING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY THE TERRAIN SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN
A SLY OR SELY COMPONENT OVER SRN CA WEST OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS.
THIS SLY COMPONENT WILL EXIST BENEATH A SWD DEVELOPING UPPER JET
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR...SUGGEST
ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR WARRANTED GIVEN
THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 02/06/2009

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