KMPX [210349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210349
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 PM SNOW HAUGEN 45.61N 91.78W
03/20/2009 M0.4 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JLT

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KIWX [210345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIWX 210345
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1145 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1149 AM HEAVY RAIN AKRON 41.04N 86.02W
03/08/2009 M2.10 INCH FULTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOODING IN FIELDS NEAR MAIN ROADS

1202 PM FLOOD ELIDA 40.79N 84.20W
03/08/2009 ALLEN OH NWS EMPLOYEE

INTERSECTION OF GREENWOOD AND 309 IN ELIDA IS NEARLY
IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING

1207 PM FLOOD FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/08/2009 ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

YARD FLOODING IN PARTS OF FORT WAYNE

1210 PM HEAVY RAIN FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/08/2009 M3.00 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL BETWEEN 2200 MAR 7 AND 1100 MAR 8

1211 PM HEAVY RAIN COLUMBUS GROVE 40.92N 84.06W
03/08/2009 M2.60 INCH PUTNAM OH TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL 2.60 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. SPOTTER REPORTS
FLOODING OF SEVERAL LOW LYING STREETS IN COLUMBUS GROVE.

0136 PM HEAVY RAIN NILES 41.83N 86.25W
03/08/2009 M2.10 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

36 HOUR TOTAL

0201 PM HEAVY RAIN LITCHFIELD 42.04N 84.76W
03/08/2009 M1.87 INCH HILLSDALE MI COCORAHS

0.75 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 7 HOURS. 1.87 INCHES
STORM TOTAL SO FAR.

0222 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NNW HUDSON 41.59N 85.11W
03/08/2009 M2.26 INCH STEUBEN IN COCORAHS

0.25 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE LAST REPORT AROUND 11 AM. STORM
TOTAL 2.26 SO FAR.

0233 PM HEAVY RAIN BLUFFTON 40.74N 85.17W
03/08/2009 M3.98 INCH WELLS IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR. 2.18 INCHES FELL SINCE 7A TODAY.
WATER OVER ROADS IN LOW SPOTS.

0239 PM HEAVY RAIN LA PORTE 41.61N 86.71W
03/08/2009 M2.12 INCH LA PORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0.57 INCHES IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. STORM TOTAL 2.12 INCHES
SO FAR.

0313 PM HEAVY RAIN SPENCERVILLE 40.71N 84.35W
03/08/2009 M2.40 INCH ALLEN OH TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR

0324 PM HAIL GEORGETOWN 41.73N 86.23W
03/08/2009 M0.25 INCH ST. JOSEPH IN TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR PICKWICK AND CLEVELAND ROAD

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG REYNOLDS 40.75N 86.87W
03/08/2009 WHITE IN PUBLIC

FABRIC COVER OF BUILDING BLOWN OFF. SHINGLES BLOWN OFF
HOUSE.

0348 PM TSTM WND DMG MONTICELLO 40.75N 86.76W
03/08/2009 WHITE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED TREES AND POWER POLES DOWN IN MANY LOCATIONS.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E LOGANSPORT 40.76N 86.32W
03/08/2009 CASS IN EMERGENCY MNGR

BACK HALF OF ROOF RIPPED OFF A BUSINESS. NO INJURIES

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S PERU 40.70N 86.07W
03/08/2009 MIAMI IN EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO MOBILE HOMES AND A BLOCK BUILDING SUFFERED HEAVY
DAMAGE. NO INJURIES REPORTED.

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG PERU 40.75N 86.07W
03/08/2009 MIAMI IN EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREE FELL ON A RESIDENCE IN PERU

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG DENVER 40.86N 86.08W
03/08/2009 MIAMI IN TRAINED SPOTTER

6 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN ON SR16 WEST OF DENVER

0437 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 N PERU 40.79N 86.07W
03/08/2009 MIAMI IN EMERGENCY MNGR

BARN ROOF BLOWN OFF AT 250 N AND SR 19 NORTH OF PERU

0437 PM HAIL GRISSOM AFB 40.66N 86.15W
03/08/2009 M0.88 INCH MIAMI IN EMERGENCY MNGR

0438 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SE WARSAW 41.21N 85.81W
03/08/2009 M2.79 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN COCORAHS

MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING AT EAST PIERCETON ROAD. EVENT
TOTAL RAINFALL 2.79 INCHES SINCE RAIN BEGAN ON SATURDAY.

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTH MANCHESTER 41.00N 85.77W
03/08/2009 WABASH IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE NEAR NORTH MANCHESTER. BARN
WITH MOST OF THE ROOF TORN OFF. 12 TO 14 INCH PINE TREES
DOWN.

0450 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 S SILVER LAKE 41.00N 85.89W
03/08/2009 WABASH IN EMERGENCY MNGR

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W NORTH MANCHESTER 41.00N 85.81W
03/08/2009 WABASH IN TRAINED SPOTTER

BARN AND TREES DOWN. LIFTED ROOF ON A HOUSE AND ROLLED A
CAR.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGTON 40.88N 85.51W
03/08/2009 HUNTINGTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS SNAPPED OFF 2 UTILITY POLES NORTH OF BIPPUS ON
SR105.

0505 PM HAIL BIPPUS 40.94N 85.62W
03/08/2009 M0.25 INCH HUNTINGTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL SOUTH OF BIPPUS ON SR105

0512 PM FLOOD ROANOKE 40.96N 85.37W
03/08/2009 HUNTINGTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

PART OF ROAD 1100 N IS CLOSED IN ROANOKE DUE TO RIVER
FLOODING.

0515 PM TORNADO 1 NNE COLUMBIA CITY 41.17N 85.48W
03/08/2009 WHITLEY IN EMERGENCY MNGR

CONFIRMED TOUCHDOWN IN COUNTRYSIDE MOBILE HOME PARK. NO
INJURIES REPORTED...BUT 6 MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED.

0518 PM HAIL COLUMBIA CITY 41.16N 85.48W
03/08/2009 M0.50 INCH WHITLEY IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM HAIL FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/08/2009 M0.75 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED AT SR 14 AND 169

0530 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE SAINT JOHNS 41.25N 85.10W
03/08/2009 ALLEN IN AMATEUR RADIO

ESTIMATED 1000 DOLLARS OF BARN DAMAGE...SHINGLES TORN
FROM ROOF OF HOUSE

0538 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/08/2009 ALLEN IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD IN NORTHWEST
FORT WAYNE NEAR COLDWATER AND WALLEN ROADS. REPORT
RELAYED BY ALLEN COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE.

0540 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/08/2009 ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR COLDWATER AND
WALLEN

0601 PM FUNNEL CLOUD CECIL 41.22N 84.60W
03/08/2009 PAULDING OH EMERGENCY MNGR

CR 230 AND 89 NORTH OF CECIL HEADED TOWARDS DEFIANCE AND
PAULDING COUNTY LINE. UNCONFIRMED BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. NO
DAMAGE REPORTED YET.

0604 PM TORNADO 5 W SHERWOOD 41.29N 84.65W
03/08/2009 DEFIANCE OH EMERGENCY MNGR

JERICHO RD AND US 127. TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND BY
2 SPOTTERS

0608 PM FUNNEL CLOUD SHERWOOD 41.29N 84.55W
03/08/2009 DEFIANCE OH TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD APPROACHING SHERWOOD OHIO. TRAINED SPOTTERS
REPORT IT KEEPS TOUCHING DOWN AND GOING BACK UP.

0611 PM HEAVY RAIN WARSAW 41.24N 85.85W
03/08/2009 M3.20 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL

0613 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE LAGRANGE 41.65N 85.39W
03/08/2009 M2.04 INCH LAGRANGE IN COCORAHS

STORM TOTAL 2.04 INCHES

0623 PM TORNADO NEY 41.38N 84.52W
03/08/2009 DEFIANCE OH EMERGENCY MNGR

NEY FIRE DEPARTMENT FOLLOWING A FUNNEL CLOUD AT THE BEND
AND MOTTER ROAD. DAMAGE AT BUCKSKIN ROAD AND 127...BARN
DOWN AND TREES DOWN. HOMES DAMAGED AT 1100 BLOCK OF ST RT
18 IN SHERWOOD. NO INJURIES.

0623 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 S MARK CENTER 41.26N 84.63W
03/08/2009 DEFIANCE OH EMERGENCY MNGR

FUNNEL CLOUD HEADED NNE

0641 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 N NAPOLEON 41.47N 84.13W
03/08/2009 HENRY OH EMERGENCY MNGR

FUNNEL CLOUD NEAR GERALD IN HENRY COUNTY

0731 PM HEAVY RAIN COLUMBUS GROVE 40.92N 84.06W
03/08/2009 M3.17 INCH PUTNAM OH TRAINED SPOTTER

3.17 INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT
STREET AND STREAM FLOODING IN COLUMBUS GROVE.

1100 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 S WARSAW 41.21N 85.85W
03/08/2009 M3.20 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

EVENT TOTAL...MINOR FLOODING OBSERVED

1100 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW WARSAW 41.25N 85.86W
03/08/2009 M2.56 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL

1130 PM HEAVY RAIN VAN WERT 40.86N 84.58W
03/08/2009 M3.02 INCH VAN WERT OH EMERGENCY MNGR

EVENT TOTAL RAINFALL

&&

$$

NWS

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KIWX [210343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIWX 210343
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1143 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 PM FLOOD DEFIANCE 41.28N 84.36W
03/10/2009 DEFIANCE OH EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED. 6 HOMES EVACUATED. SANDBAGGING TO
KEEP WATER OUT OF PUBLIC LIBRARY.

0922 PM FLOOD FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/10/2009 ALLEN IN EMERGENCY MNGR

13 ROAD CLOSURE REPORTS DUE TO HIGH WATER.

1030 PM FLOOD 3 E WARSAW 41.24N 85.79W
03/10/2009 KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER ACROSS OLD RT 30

1125 PM FLOOD MONTICELLO 40.75N 86.76W
03/10/2009 WHITE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

EVACUATIONS IN PROGRESS NEAR MONTICELLO BLUE RIVER AND
DIAMOND POINT.

0654 AM FLOOD 4 NNW HUDSON 41.59N 85.11W
03/11/2009 STEUBEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

FLOWING WATER OVER LOCAL ROADS...IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...2.04 INCHES.

0716 AM HEAVY RAIN ROCHESTER 41.06N 86.20W
03/11/2009 M3.34 INCH FULTON IN CO-OP OBSERVER

MARCH 10TH RAINFALL TOTAL.

0718 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N NORTH WEBSTER 41.35N 85.70W
03/11/2009 M2.62 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS OFFICE

MARCH 10 RAINFALL TOTAL.

0721 AM FLOOD 2 SW NORTH WEBSTER 41.30N 85.72W
03/11/2009 KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

FLOODING REPORTED ON COUNTY ROAD 675...WITH DEBRIS ON THE
ROAD FROM FAST FLOWING WATER OFF FLOODED FIELD. TOTAL
MARCH 10 RAINFALL...2.81 INCHES.

0829 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 S WARSAW 41.21N 85.85W
03/11/2009 M3.74 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

RECENT EVENT TOTAL...6.94 INCHES SINCE SAT
MORNING...NUMEROUS FLOODED YARDS WITH WATER ACROSS ROADS
AT SOME LOCATIONS

0921 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 N COLUMBIA CITY 41.23N 85.48W
03/11/2009 M3.16 INCH WHITLEY IN COCORAHS

MARCH 10 RAINFALL TOTAL.

0923 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE WINAMAC 41.03N 86.59W
03/11/2009 M2.92 INCH PULASKI IN COCORAHS

MARCH 10 RAINFALL TOTAL.

0939 AM FLOOD FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/11/2009 ALLEN IN BROADCAST MEDIA

12 HOMES EVACUATED IN WAYNEDALE DUE TO THE FAIRFIED DITCH
OVERFLOWING ITS BANKS.

0958 AM HEAVY RAIN GARRETT 41.35N 85.13W
03/11/2009 M2.80 INCH DE KALB IN CO-OP OBSERVER

MARCH 10 RAINFALL TOTAL.

1050 AM FLOOD ROCHESTER 41.06N 86.20W
03/11/2009 FULTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

A FEW COUNTY ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. TUESDAY
RAINFALL TOTAL...2.43 INCHES.

&&

$$

NWS

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KDLH [210343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 210343
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1043 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1042 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
03/20/2009 M2.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KIWX [210340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIWX 210340
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1140 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 PM HAIL GOSHEN 41.58N 85.84W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ELKHART IN TRAINED SPOTTER

COUNTY ROAD 42 NEAR GOSHEN AIRPORT

1249 PM HAIL NEW PARIS 41.50N 85.83W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ELKHART IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0136 PM HAIL 1 SW MILLERSBURG 41.52N 85.71W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ELKHART IN NWS EMPLOYEE

0157 PM HAIL MILFORD 41.41N 85.85W
03/18/2009 M0.50 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0200 PM HAIL MILFORD 41.41N 85.85W
03/18/2009 M0.70 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0300 PM HAIL 2 SW NORTH WEBSTER 41.30N 85.72W
03/18/2009 M0.50 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

MIX OF HALF INCH AND SMALLER HAIL

0310 PM HAIL MENTONE 41.17N 86.04W
03/18/2009 E0.25 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0404 PM HAIL FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE SPOTTERS REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL IN FORT WAYNE

&&

$$

NWS

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KGRB [210331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 210331
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1031 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM SNOW WAUTOMA 44.06N 89.28W
03/20/2009 E0.2 INCH WAUSHARA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KAMA [210315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 210315
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1015 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM HAIL 6 NE BEAVER 36.88N 100.45W
03/20/2009 E0.88 INCH BEAVER OK EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL STARTED AT 1000 PM AND LASTED FIVE MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0901108

$$

NUNEZ

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KICT [210309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 210309
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1009 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1006 PM HAIL SEDAN 37.13N 96.18W
03/20/2009 E0.75 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

KED

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0232

ACUS11 KWNS 210301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210301
KSZ000-OKZ000-210430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS...EXTREME NWRN AND N CENTRAL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210301Z - 210430Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS...AND N CENTRAL OK DURING THE
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 02Z PLACES A WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO...WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD INTO NWRN AND CENTRAL OK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FRONT MAY LIFT NWD INTO SWRN KS DURING THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING EWD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER S
CENTRAL KS INTO NERN OK. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER
W ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO
40-50 KT. THIS NEW ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /7.8 DEG C PER KM SAMPLED IN LMN
RAOB/...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AS THE
700-800 MB LAYER MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED AT 250 MB IS ON THE ORDER OF 50-70
KT...WHICH WILL YIELD 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN
ADDITION...AREA PROFILERS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN
THE LOWEST 3 KM...SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA 200 M2/S2.
THEREFORE...A FEW STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSE A
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GARNER.. 03/21/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 38079883 38099785 37969712 37519652 37039642 36669688
36589772 36549905 36599988 37060025 37869953 38079883

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KSEW [210223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSEW 210223
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
723 PM PDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE MONROE 47.85N 121.96W
03/20/2009 SNOHOMISH WA NEWSPAPER

*** 1 FATAL, 1 INJ *** FROM THE EVERETT HERALD AND OTHER
MEDIA SOURCES...TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO A VAN...KILLING THE
DRIVER AND INJURING HER PASSENGER.

&&

$$

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

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KICT [210203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 210203
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
903 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL 3 E CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.45W
03/20/2009 E0.75 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

RBL

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KMQT [210158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 210158
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
958 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM SNOW ROCKLAND 46.74N 89.18W
03/20/2009 M2.8 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

SINCE 430PM.

&&

$$

SRF

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KMPX [210156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210156
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
856 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0856 PM SNOW MENOMONIE 44.89N 91.91W
03/20/2009 M0.8 INCH DUNN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JLT

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KDLH [210129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 210129
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
828 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM SNOW GRAND RAPIDS 47.23N 93.52W
03/20/2009 M2.5 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0245 PM SNOW CHISHOLM 47.49N 92.88W
03/20/2009 M2.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0245 PM SNOW CROSSLAKE 46.68N 94.09W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH CROW WING MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0407 PM SNOW HILL CITY 46.99N 93.60W
03/20/2009 M3.0 INCH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0444 PM SNOW COTTON 47.17N 92.47W
03/20/2009 M1.7 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0515 PM SNOW SAGINAW 46.86N 92.44W
03/20/2009 M1.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0518 PM SNOW EXELAND 45.67N 91.24W
03/20/2009 M0.7 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0537 PM SNOW ESKO 46.71N 92.36W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH CARLTON MN NWS EMPLOYEE

0545 PM SNOW 5 N VIRGINIA 47.59N 92.51W
03/20/2009 M2.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM SNOW BEAVER BAY 47.26N 91.30W
03/20/2009 M3.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM SNOW 4 N GRANTSBURG 45.84N 92.68W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0648 PM SNOW LITTLE MARAIS 47.41N 91.11W
03/20/2009 M3.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM SNOW 2 N DULUTH 46.81N 92.12W
03/20/2009 M1.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LAKEWOOD TOWNSHIP

0650 PM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
03/20/2009 M1.6 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0650 PM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
03/20/2009 M1.8 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 PM SNOW SARONA 45.71N 91.81W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH WASHBURN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0656 PM SNOW SUPERIOR 46.70N 92.06W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI NWS EMPLOYEE

BILLINGS PARK

0656 PM SNOW 8 N BAYFIELD 46.93N 90.82W
03/20/2009 M2.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 PM SNOW 5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS 46.32N 91.92W
03/20/2009 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 PM SNOW 6 SW TWO HARBORS 46.97N 91.77W
03/20/2009 M1.8 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KMPX [210108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210108
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
808 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 PM SNOW CLAYTON 45.32N 92.17W
03/20/2009 M2.0 INCH POLK WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JLT

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KDLH [210101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 210101
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
801 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM SNOW 6 SW TWO HARBORS 46.97N 91.77W
03/20/2009 M1.8 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210059
SWODY1
SPC AC 210056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE
TROUGHING OVER E COAST...AND RIDGING FROM NRN MEX ALONG CONUS HIGH
PLAINS TO SASK. WEAK/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE RAOB DATA OVER CO...AND IN
SRN STREAM...OVER PORTIONS SONORA/AZ. CENTRAL ROCKIES PERTURBATION
IS WEAK...BUT MAY BE REINFORCED CONVECTIVELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS KS. SRN STREAM TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
ENEWD...CROSSING PORTIONS NM AND FAR W TX.

AT SFC...PRIMARY LEE-SIDE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER SERN CO VICINITY
TAD...AND SHOULD REMAIN WEAK/QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD. DIFFUSE WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM NE TX NWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL OK AND NWRN KS...THEN SWWD ACROSS E-CENTRAL CO INTO LOW.
SLIGHT NWD DRIFT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE RETURN IS TOO
IMMATURE YET...AND WRN GRADIENT TOO DIFFUSE/IRREGULAR...FOR DEFINING
DRYLINE ATTM.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
ISOLATED...TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER OK PANHANDLE DURING PAST HOUR
APPEARS TO BE SFC BASED...USING MODIFICATION OF AMA/DDC RAOBS AND
RUC SOUNDINGS...AND APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC
HEATING. PRIMARY REGIONAL CONVECTIVE MODE THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD
SHOULD BE MORE CLUSTERED AND ELEVATED. EXPECT SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN KS...PERHAPS IN
MULTIPLE NODES THAT EVENTUALLY MAY LINK INTO WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS.
RESULTANT CONVECTION THEN SHOULD MOVE EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS SRN
KS...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS NERN OK AND SWRN MO...BEFORE 12Z. MRGL
SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR FROM MOST INTENSE TSTMS IN THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN KS.

BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME -- AND ABOVE DIABATICALLY STABILIZED
BOUNDARY LAYER -- WILL GRADUALLY BOOST RH OVERNIGHT INVOF 35-45 KT
LLJ. BY 06Z...AXIS OF LLJ IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM COAHUILA NWD
ACROSS TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION THEN NEWD OVER ERN PANHANDLE TO
S-CENTRAL KS. LLJ CORE THEN SHOULD VEER SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT EWD
ACROSS WRN OK AND S-CENTRAL/SERN KS OVERNIGHT. MAINLY NW OF LLJ
AXIS...PARCEL RH WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SATURATION IN LAYER THAT WILL
BE SHALLOW IN VERTICAL EXTENT BUT BROAD HORIZONTALLY...BENEATH STEEP
MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. PARCELS WILL BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY
TO LFC...ACCESSING ELEVATED MUCAPE COMMONLY IN 500-1000 J/KG RANGE.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE FCST TO BE GREATER OVER
S-CENTRAL/SWRN KS THAN FARTHER E...WITH DEEPEST BUOYANT PROFILES
YIELDING VALUES OF 40-45 KT.

..EDWARDS.. 03/21/2009

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KSEW [210036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 210036
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
536 PM PDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG MONROE 47.86N 121.98W
03/20/2009 SNOHOMISH WA NEWSPAPER

*** 1 FATAL *** HEARD FROM A REPORTER AT THE EVERETT
HERALD THAT A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN MONROE THAT CRUSHED
A CAR AND KILLED A WOMAN INSIDE.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KDLH [210033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDLH 210033
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
733 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM SNOW 5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS 46.32N 91.92W
03/20/2009 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KDLH [210033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 210033
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
733 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM SNOW 5 WSW SOLON SPRINGS 46.32N 91.92W
03/20/2009 M1.5 INCH DOUGLAS WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KMPX [210019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210019
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
719 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0719 PM SNOW STANLEY 44.96N 90.94W
03/20/2009 M0.3 INCH CHIPPEWA WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JLT

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KDLH [210010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 210010
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
710 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM SNOW SARONA 45.71N 91.81W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH WASHBURN WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KMPX [210003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210003
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW 2 S BRUCE 45.43N 91.27W
03/20/2009 M0.5 INCH RUSK WI CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

JLT

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KMPX [210002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 210002
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
702 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0701 PM SNOW 6 NW RICE LAKE 45.56N 91.83W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH BARRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JLT

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KDLH [210002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 210002
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM SNOW LUTSEN 47.64N 90.71W
03/20/2009 M1.8 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM SNOW 2 N DULUTH 46.81N 92.12W
03/20/2009 M1.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

LAKEWOOD TOWNSHIP

0650 PM SNOW DULUTH 46.78N 92.12W
03/20/2009 M1.6 INCH ST. LOUIS MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0656 PM SNOW 8 N BAYFIELD 46.93N 90.82W
03/20/2009 M2.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0656 PM SNOW SUPERIOR 46.70N 92.06W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH DOUGLAS WI NWS EMPLOYEE

BILLINGS PARK

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KDLH [202355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202355
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0648 PM SNOW LITTLE MARAIS 47.41N 91.11W
03/20/2009 M3.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KDLH [202325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202325
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM SNOW 4 N GRANTSBURG 45.84N 92.68W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH BURNETT WI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KDLH [202315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202315
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
615 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM SNOW BEAVER BAY 47.26N 91.30W
03/20/2009 M3.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KDLH [202251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202251
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
551 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0518 PM SNOW EXELAND 45.67N 91.24W
03/20/2009 M0.7 INCH SAWYER WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0537 PM SNOW ESKO 46.71N 92.36W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH CARLTON MN NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KDLH [202249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202249
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM SNOW SAGINAW 46.86N 92.44W
03/20/2009 M1.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM SNOW 5 N VIRGINIA 47.59N 92.51W
03/20/2009 M2.0 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

DONOFRIO

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KSEW [202231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 202231
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
331 PM PDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 ESE LOWER ELWHA 48.13N 123.48W
03/20/2009 M40 MPH CLALLAM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

SUSTAINED WEST WIND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KDLH [202144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202144
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
444 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0444 PM SNOW COTTON 47.17N 92.47W
03/20/2009 M1.7 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [202137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202137
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
437 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0436 PM SNOW LITTLE MARAIS 47.41N 91.11W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH LAKE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GSF

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KDLH [202108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202108
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
408 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM SNOW HILL CITY 46.99N 93.60W
03/20/2009 M3.0 INCH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GSF

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KDLH [202004]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 202004
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
304 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM SNOW CHISHOLM 47.49N 92.88W
03/20/2009 M2.8 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KDLH [201955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 201955
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
255 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM SNOW CROSSLAKE 46.68N 94.09W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH CROW WING MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0245 PM SNOW GRAND RAPIDS 47.23N 93.52W
03/20/2009 M2.5 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BETTWY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201919
SWODY1
SPC AC 201916

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 202000Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
FROM ERN CO SWD INTO NM. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE
CNTRL AND WRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...A 35 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP FROM WEST TX NWD INTO SRN KS WHICH WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DUE TO LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET...SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN
WRN AND CNTRL KS LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE
PERIOD POTENTIALLY SPREADING SWD INTO OK AND WEST TX LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND 06Z IN CNTRL KS SUGGEST MUCAPE VALUES
COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG DUE TO THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS AGREE THAT A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXIST FROM NE NM EXTENDING NEWD INTO WCNTRL KS.
THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 03/20/2009

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KDLH [201900]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 201900
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
200 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM SNOW CHISHOLM 47.49N 92.88W
03/20/2009 M1.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KDLH [201853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 201853
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
153 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM SNOW BRIMSON 47.28N 91.87W
03/20/2009 M0.3 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MELDE

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KDLH [201851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 201851
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
151 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW GRAND RAPIDS 47.23N 93.52W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH ITASCA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MELDE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 201719
SWODY2
SPC AC 201716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WEST TX/FAR ERN NM/OK PANHANDLE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS SATURDAY. BENEATH THE RIDGE...SLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TONIGHT SHOULD REACH THE LOWER
50S F BY LATE IN THE DAY IN PARTS OF WEST TX NWD INTO WRN KS WHERE
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SBCAPE VALUES AR0UND 1000
J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTO WEST TX SATURDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM
NE CO SWD AS FAR AS LUBBOCK. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WEST TX AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING.

NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z TO 23Z
SATURDAY SHOW THE GREATEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN ERN NM AND IN WEST TX
NEAR THE NM STATE-LINE. IN ADDITION...850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE STEEP ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EWD ACROSS NW TX WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER. ALTHOUGH LESS OF A THREAT...A
FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR PEAK HEATING WHEN
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED. MODEL FORECASTS DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND IF WEAKER SHEAR IS
REALIZED...THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE LESSENED
SUGGESTING A 5 PERCENT CONTOUR IS APPROPRIATE ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 03/20/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201614
SWODY1
SPC AC 201611

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE RCKYS TO THE PLNS/LWR MS
VLY THIS PERIOD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST BY
END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N FL ACROSS THE NRN GULF
INTO TX SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS SFC RIDGE NOSES SW FROM THE TN VLY.
WRN PART OF BOUNDARY WILL REFORM NWD AS WARM FRONT THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT.

...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY...
SATELLITE-DERIVED AND GPS PW DATA SHOW AXIS OF MODEST MOISTURE /WITH
VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCHES/ EXTENDING FROM FAR W TX INTO SW KS.
INTENSIFICATION OF LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE INSTABILITY TO
SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY.
DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLD OR WDLY SCTD AFTN STORMS OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS NEWD INTO
SW KS. LOW LEVEL WAA MAY MAINTAIN STORM POTENTIAL OVER PARTS
CNTRL/SRN NM AND FAR W TX AFTER SUNSET.

...CNTRL PLNS TONIGHT...
SWLY LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND APPROACH OF SRN STREAM
IMPULSE. COUPLED WITH NWD REDEVELOPMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE...ASSOCIATED WAA SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD TO
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER CNTRL/ERN KS AS PW SLOWLY INCREASES TO
AROUND 1 INCH. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK /25 KT/ WNWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
IN SHORT WAVE RIDGE...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO
WARRANT INCLUSION SVR PROBABILITIES EVEN THOUGH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT.

..HALES/HURLBUT.. 03/20/2009

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KMFL [201516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201516
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1116 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1057 AM WATER SPOUT 22 SE MIAMI 25.54N 79.95W
03/20/2009 AMZ651 FL AIRPLANE PILOT

A PILOT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT 22 MILES SE OF MIA.

&&

$$

DG

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KMFL [201404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 201404
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1003 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0947 AM WATER SPOUT 2 E MIAMI BEACH 25.81N 80.10W
03/20/2009 AMZ651 FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED A WATERSPOUT 2 MILES EAST OF MIAMI
BEACH AT 21ST STREET.

&&

$$

DG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201252
SWODY1
SPC AC 201249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS FROM THE RCKYS TO THE PLNS/LWR MS
VLY THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES OF SWD-MOVING JET STREAKS REFORM NE
PACIFIC UPR LOW FARTHER S OFF THE BC CST. IN THE SRN STREAM...
DISTURBANCE NOW ENTERING NRN BAJA CA SHOULD CONTINUE ENE ACROSS NRN
SONORA/SRN AZ TODAY...AND INTO W TX EARLY SAT.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N FL ACROSS THE NRN GULF
INTO TX SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS SFC RIDGE NOSES SW FROM THE TN VLY.
WRN PART OF BOUNDARY WILL REFORM NWD AS WARM FRONT THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING SE FROM STRENGTHENING LEE-SIDE LOW
OVER SE CO.

...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY...
SATELLITE-DERIVED AND GPS PW DATA SHOW AXIS OF MODEST MOISTURE /WITH
VALUES AROUND 0.5 INCHES/ EXTENDING FROM FAR W TX INTO SW KS.
INTENSIFICATION OF LEE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW MOISTURE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE OVER THE SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS TODAY. DIURNAL
HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLD OR
WDLY SCTD AFTN STORMS OVER THE REGION...PERHAPS NEWD INTO SW KS.
LOW LEVEL WAA...AND POSSIBLY INCREASING DPVA AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN
STREAM IMPULSE...MAY MAINTAIN STORM POTENTIAL OVER PARTS CNTRL/SRN
NM AND FAR W TX AFTER SUNSET.

...CNTRL PLNS TONIGHT...
SWLY LLJ SHOULD STRENGTHEN THIS EVE THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND APPROACH OF SRN STREAM
IMPULSE. COUPLED WITH NWD REDEVELOPMENT OF AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
ZONE...ASSOCIATED WAA SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF WDLY SCTD TO
SCTD ELEVATED TSTMS OVER CNTRL/ERN KS AS PW SLOWLY INCREASES TO
AROUND 1 INCH. MUCAPE COULD REACH 500 TO POSSIBLY 1000 J/KG OVER SE
KS FOR A FEW HOURS OR SO BEGINNING AROUND 06Z SAT...OWING MAINLY TO
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ALOFT/EML. BUT GIVEN
RELATIVELY WEAK /25 KT/ WNWLY CLOUD LAYER SHEAR IN SHORT WAVE
RIDGE...THREAT FOR SVR HAIL APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT INCLUSION
SVR PROBABILITIES.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 03/20/2009

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KMPX [201212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 201212
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
712 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 AM SNOW LITTLE FALLS 45.98N 94.36W
03/20/2009 M1.0 INCH MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

AJZ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200829
SWOD48
SPC AC 200828

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE EVOLUTION OF A POWERFUL SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE CNTRL U.S. ON
D4 /MON MAR 23RD/. ALOFT...AN INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SHIFT EWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE OCCLUDING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
QUALITY STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING
LARGELY IN THE 50S. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL
LIKELY FOSTER NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ ALONG OR
AHEAD OF DRYLINE OR PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF PACIFIC
FRONT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU BY
D5 /TUE MAR 24TH/. WHILE PRIMARY UPPER LOW/VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECONDARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM/JET
STREAK ROTATING THROUGH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BASE OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED
STRONG WIND FIELDS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ANOTHER ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE FROM ERN PARTS OF OK/TX INTO PORTIONS OF AR
AND PERHAPS SRN MO AND NRN LA.

THEREAFTER...MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. MOREOVER...CONSIDERABLE TSTM ACTIVITY OVER
THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS MAY POTENTIALLY DISPLACE THE EFFECTIVE WARM
SECTOR FURTHER TO THE S/SE THAN WHAT CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES.
NONETHELESS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS...NO
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE DELINEATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 03/20/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 200710
SWODY3
SPC AC 200708

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF A POWERFUL MIDLEVEL LOW AND ACCOMPANYING 90+ KT JET STREAK
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE
SURFACE...SEPARATE LOW CENTERS INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
AND GREAT BASIN WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LEE
CYCLONE OVER ERN CO SUNDAY NIGHT. PACIFIC COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...GREAT
BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY WITH THIS FEATURE REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...A LEE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF A DRYLINE PRIOR TO BEING OVERTAKEN
BY PACIFIC COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. FARTHER E...A NW-SE ORIENTED
WARM FRONT WILL INTENSIFY SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE MAJORITY OF TSTM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY THREE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR AND
TO THE N OF THIS BOUNDARY.

...GREAT PLAINS...

AS MENTIONED IN THE DAY TWO DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PRECEDE PRIMARY UPPER SYSTEM WITH THIS FEATURE LIFTING
NEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A
BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS APPEARS LIKELY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH /TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT/ WHERE A SSWLY LLJ WILL FOCUS
ASCENT/DESTABILIZATION. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

IN THE WAKE OF THESE INITIAL TSTMS..STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON FROM PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CAPPING AT THE
BASE OF THE EML WILL LIKELY INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS.
HOWEVER...DEEPENING DRYLINE CIRCULATIONS AND SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE
ALONG WARM FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

CURRENTLY...THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF SURFACE-BASED INITIATION
APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE WARM FRONT-DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INITIATION AND
STORM COVERAGE...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN
THIS FORECAST.

ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME OVER PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS
INTO UPPER MS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO ABOVE...SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

...WRN STATES...

INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY UPPER
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS BOTH ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF PACIFIC FRONT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.
HOWEVER...AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE
DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.

..MEAD.. 03/20/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200540
SWODY2
SPC AC 200539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN INTENSIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC
ONTO THE WEST COAST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD...INDUCING PRONOUNCED
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SWD INTO THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN
SUGGESTING THAT A COUPLE OF SMALLER-SCALE IMPULSES WILL PRECEDE THE
PRIMARY TROUGH. ONE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN
ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
SWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE OTHER IS
FORECAST TO GENERALLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE INITIALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO FORMER LEAD
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. AS THIS OCCURS...SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE /ASSOCIATED WITH PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH/ WILL REFORM ALONG
PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FARTHER E...A LEE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WARM FRONTS LIFTING NWD THROUGH
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS.

...WRN STATES...

A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C PER KM/ WILL
RESIDE FROM THE GREAT BASIN EWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF
EVOLVING ERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST TROUGH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ONSHORE FLOW REGIME OVER NRN/CNTRL CA...AIR MASS AHEAD OF PACIFIC
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES LESS THE
0.5 INCH. THIS MARGINAL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS...INFLUENCES OF PRIMARY UPPER
TROUGH AND LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD SERVE TO FOCUS SCATTERED STORMS ALONG
PACIFIC FRONT AND IN AREAS OF FAVORED TERRAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

...GREAT PLAINS...

PREVAILING SWLY FLOW REGIME IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL MAINTAIN THE ERN
EXTENSION OF EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...DESPITE PERSISTENT SLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS...BOUNDARY LAYER E OF LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
DRY...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF KS PERHAPS INTO MO...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ...IN PART INDUCED BY APPROACH OF
WEAK IMPULSE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...BUT THE GENERALLY WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

POTENTIALLY STRONGER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE IN DAY
ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
WHERE MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 500-800 J/KG. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED...AND GIVEN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING MECHANISMS...THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER DIURNAL STORMS WILL INITIATE AND BECOME
SUSTAINED. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE 21/21Z-22/03Z TIME FRAME WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS WILL TEND TO ENLARGE WITH TIME...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.

FINALLY...CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ALONG STRENGTHENING...NOCTURNAL LLJ.
HERE TOO...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE A
FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL.

..MEAD.. 03/20/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 200503
SWODY1
SPC AC 200500

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING ALOFT IS FCST TO DRIFT EWD ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AS ERN
TROUGHING SHIFTS EWD...AND TROUGH AMPLIFICATION/PROGRESSION BEGINS
OVER NERN PACIFIC. POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- INITIALLY
ANALYZED FROM ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD ACROSS OH -- WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING FIRST 6-12
HOURS OF PERIOD. IN ITS WAKE...BROAD ZONE OF NWLY TO WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL COVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CONUS...PERTURBED ONLY BY VERY
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLES. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT
IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF BAJA BETWEEN 120W-125W -- SHOULD
LIFT NEWD ACROSS NRN SONORA AND SRN AZ BY 21/00Z THEN ERN NM BY
21/12Z. MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG SSEWD ALONG
UPSTREAM SIDE OF TROUGH THAT WILL BE AMPLIFYING W OF NRN CA/ORE/WA
COAST.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED FROM ERN SC TO SRN AL...CENTRAL LA
AND N-CENTRAL TX -- SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE OVER MUCH OF GULF COAST
REGION AMIDST ELY/NELY FLOW ON BOTH SIDES. WRN PORTION OF FRONT
WILL REORGANIZE/REDEVELOP NWD AS WARM FRONT BY 21/12Z...EXTENDING
SEWD FROM STRENGTHENING LEE-SIDE LOW OVER SERN CO.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER DARK AS
CONTINUING WAA REGIME ACQUIRES PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOISTURE THROUGH
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 35-45 KT LLJ. STRONGEST
LIFT -- WITH PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY REACHING LFC AND REALIZING
MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG -- IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS SERN KS FOR A
FEW HOURS BEGINNING AROUND 21/06Z. ACTIVITY THEN SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND
EWD...GENERALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME DURING LATTER 3-4 HOURS OF
PERIOD...BUT STILL POSING GEN THUNDER THREAT INTO WRN MO. MODIFIED
ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER MOST OF
REGION BECAUSE OF FAILURE OF UPPER REACHES OF BUOYANT LAYER TO
EXTEND INTO BOTTOM PORTIONS OF 55-70 KT UPPER JET MAX. HOWEVER...A
FEW CELLS WITH GREATEST CAPE/DEPTH BRIEFLY MAY EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE
DEEP-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR TO DEVELOP MRGL HAIL THREAT. ATTM
PROBABILITIES APPEAR TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL FOR AOA 5-PERCENT SVR
CONTOUR.

...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY INCREASE WITH SWD EXTENT
RELATED TO RECENT FROPA ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FROM UPSLOPE TRANSPORT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND RELATED
WEAKENING OF CINH...SFC THETAE AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CB OVER THIS
REGION. LOW LEVEL WAA...AND POSSIBLY INCREASING DPVA AHEAD OF
EJECTING SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...MAY MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN NM AND FAR W TX AFTER SUNDOWN. WEAK
DEEP-LAYER FLOW...INVOF MEAN RIDGE ALOFT...WILL PRECLUDE SVR RISK.

..EDWARDS.. 03/20/2009

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