MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0232

ACUS11 KWNS 210301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210301
KSZ000-OKZ000-210430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1001 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS...EXTREME NWRN AND N CENTRAL
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 210301Z - 210430Z

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER
PORTIONS OF SWRN AND S CENTRAL KS...AND N CENTRAL OK DURING THE
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 02Z PLACES A WEAK LOW OVER SERN CO...WITH A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD INTO NWRN AND CENTRAL OK. SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FRONT MAY LIFT NWD INTO SWRN KS DURING THE
NIGHT...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING EWD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
RECENTLY INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER S
CENTRAL KS INTO NERN OK. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER
W ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS TO
40-50 KT. THIS NEW ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /7.8 DEG C PER KM SAMPLED IN LMN
RAOB/...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARDS 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AS THE
700-800 MB LAYER MOISTENS IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ. UPPER LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED AT 250 MB IS ON THE ORDER OF 50-70
KT...WHICH WILL YIELD 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. IN
ADDITION...AREA PROFILERS DEPICT STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES IN
THE LOWEST 3 KM...SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES AOA 200 M2/S2.
THEREFORE...A FEW STORMS MAY EXPERIENCE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND POSE A
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..GARNER.. 03/21/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 38079883 38099785 37969712 37519652 37039642 36669688
36589772 36549905 36599988 37060025 37869953 38079883

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