KSGX [070310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 070310
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
710 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0542 PM HAIL BANNING 33.94N 116.89W
11/06/2011 E0.25 INCH RIVERSIDE CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOTS OF HAIL AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON EASTBOUND HIGHWAY
60 AT THE SUMMIT...SAN GORGONIO PASS. SIGALERT DUE TO
SNOW AND TRAFFIC COLLISION.

0626 PM HAIL BANNING 33.94N 116.89W
11/06/2011 E0.25 INCH RIVERSIDE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER DRIVING THROUGH THE BANNING PASS REPORTED AN INCH
OF PEA SIZE HAIL ALONG I10.

0629 PM HAIL E ONTARIO 34.05N 117.61W
11/06/2011 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SNOW/HAIL BUILD UP OF 6 INCHES ON I10...BETWEEN CENTRAL
AND INDIAN HILL.

&&

$$

PALMER

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KGGW [070203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 070203
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
703 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM SNOW GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
11/06/2011 M3.1 INCH VALLEY MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

3.1 INCHES TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL AT 0500...2 INCH SNOW
DEPTH...STILL SNOWING.

0600 AM SNOW 4 SW HINSDALE 48.35N 107.15W
11/06/2011 E4.5 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AT 0600 ABOUT 4.5 INCHES...STILL
SNOWING.

0730 AM SNOW CRANE 47.58N 104.26W
11/06/2011 E2.0 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL STORM SNOWFALL THAT STARTED AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL
0730...STILL SNOWING.

0948 AM SNOW 10 WNW MEDICINE LAKE 48.58N 104.69W
11/06/2011 E2.0 INCH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW BEGAN AT APPOXIMATELY 930 PM ON 11/5/2011. STILL
SNOWING LIGHTLY.

0320 PM SNOW HINSDALE 48.39N 107.08W
11/06/2011 M4.0 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

STILL SNOWING.

0400 PM SNOW 10 N OPHEIM 49.00N 106.41W
11/06/2011 M3.0 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0500 PM SNOW 14 N LORING 48.99N 107.86W
11/06/2011 E2.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

PORT OF MORGAN BORDER STATION.

0504 PM SNOW NASHUA 48.13N 106.36W
11/06/2011 M2.5 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

0530 PM SNOW CULBERTSON 48.14N 104.52W
11/06/2011 M3.0 INCH ROOSEVELT MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&
SOME OF THESE ARE COOPERATIVE REPORTS AND ALSO LISTED ON THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE FOR MONTANA (GTFRTPMT ASUS65
KTFX).
$$

TEDJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 070145
SWODY1
SPC AC 070143

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TORNADO GRAPHIC

...SRN PLAINS...
A LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
TX ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN NORTH TX EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1500
J/KG...40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHTS FROM
THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL THREAT WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. HAVE ADDED A 2
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NEAR ABILENE NEWD INTO FAR SRN OK
FOR THIS EVENING. AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WEST TX LATE TONIGHT. IN
SPITE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO ENEWD INTO WRN OK
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR AT 09Z TO 12Z SHOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM 700 TO 500 MB...60 KT OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF
1500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AS STORMS INITIATE AROUND 09Z AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE MAINTAINED A 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY FOR THIS
SCENARIO.

..BROYLES.. 11/07/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2286

ACUS11 KWNS 070100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070100
OKZ000-TXZ000-070230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2286
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL TX THROUGH S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 070100Z - 070230Z

CONVECTION DEVELOPING FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH S-CNTRL OK MAY POSE A
MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND A WW
ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY UNLESS STORMS BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OR ORGANIZATION.

THIS EVENING A BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM N-CNTRL TX THROUGH
S-CNTRL OK. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS
ADVECTING NWWD. PROXIMITY FORT WORTH SOUNDING INDICATES MODERATE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY /1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE...BUT MODEST MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND NORMALIZED CAPE. AN INVERSION WAS ALSO EVIDENT
AROUND 700 MB...AND MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
SHALLOW. A RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY INDICATES SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN. SFC-1 KM HODOGRAPHS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER AS LLJ INCREASES...SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH FROM 200-300 M2/S2
IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL WHICH SUGGESTS THE WINDOW FOR ANY TORNADO
THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 32809910 34309771 35179691 34949623 33729674 32409834
32339917 32809910

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KMFR [070059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 070059
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
459 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE GRANTS PASS 42.42N 123.32W
11/06/2011 M1.33 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

23 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070049
SWODY1
SPC AC 070048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
A LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
TX ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN NORTH TX EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1500
J/KG...40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHTS FROM
THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL THREAT WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. HAVE ADDED A 2
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NEAR ABILENE NEWD INTO FAR SRN OK
FOR THIS EVENING. AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WEST TX LATE TONIGHT. IN
SPITE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO ENEWD INTO WRN OK
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR AT 09Z TO 12Z SHOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM 700 TO 500 MB...60 KT OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF
1500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AS STORMS INITIATE AROUND 09Z AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE MAINTAINED A 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY FOR THIS
SCENARIO.

..BROYLES.. 11/07/2011

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KHNX [070030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 070030
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
429 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW TUOLUMNE MEADOWS 37.87N 119.35W
11/06/2011 M8.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ELEVATION 8,694 FEET. 0.38 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR
LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

BSO

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KMFR [070019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 070019
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
419 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N CAVE JUNCTION 42.19N 123.65W
11/06/2011 M1.15 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

23 HOUR ACCUMULATIVE TOTAL FROM 5PM SATURDAY 11/05

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KBIS [062357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 062357
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
557 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM SNOW TROTTERS 47.32N 103.92W
11/06/2011 M2.0 INCH GOLDEN VALLEY ND PUBLIC

0.13 INCH WATER EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

THAMILTO

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KMFR [062329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 062329
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
329 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 WSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.73W
11/06/2011 M2.20 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION.

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [062317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 062317
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
317 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SE CAVE JUNCTION 42.11N 123.58W
11/06/2011 M1.30 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KGGW [062225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 062225
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
325 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM SNOW HINSDALE 48.39N 107.08W
11/06/2011 M4.0 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

TEDJ

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KGGW [062202]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 062202
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
302 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 AM SNOW 10 WNW MEDICINE LAKE 48.58N 104.69W
11/06/2011 E2.0 INCH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOW BEGAN AT APPOXIMATELY 930 PM ON 11/5/2011. STILL
SNOWING LIGHTLY.

&&

$$

RMORGAN

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KBYZ [062153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 062153
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 18 SW FISHTAIL 45.27N 109.76W
11/05/2011 M6.0 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 PM SNOW 6 ESE LIVINGSTON 45.63N 110.45W
11/05/2011 M6.1 INCH PARK MT COCORAHS

0600 PM SNOW 2 W RED LODGE 45.19N 109.29W
11/05/2011 M6.0 INCH CARBON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 PM SNOW 9 ENE BILLINGS 45.84N 108.37W
11/05/2011 M6.0 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT COCORAHS

&&

$$

DAVIDC

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KMFR [062141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 062141
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
141 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM SNOW 2 N KENO 42.16N 121.94W
11/06/2011 M2.8 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KGJT [062135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062135
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
235 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW COAL BANK PASS 37.70N 107.78W
11/06/2011 M8.5 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.80
INCHES... STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 15.0 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100576

$$

TB

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KGJT [062133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062133
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
233 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW RED MOUNTAIN PASS 37.90N 107.70W
11/06/2011 M9.0 INCH OURAY CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.70
INCHES... STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 18.0 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100575

$$

TB

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KGJT [062132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062132
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
232 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW MOLAS PASS 37.73N 107.70W
11/06/2011 M7.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.50
INCHES... STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 14.0 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100574

$$

TB

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KGJT [062131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062131
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
231 PM MST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM SNOW MONUMENT (HIGHWAY 550) 37.97N 107.66W
11/06/2011 M6.0 INCH OURAY CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL WITH WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.45
INCHES... STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL 13.0 INCHES

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1100573

$$

TB

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KMFR [062017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 062017
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1217 PM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 AM HEAVY SNOW 2 W SISKIYOU SUMMIT 42.06N 122.60W
11/06/2011 E12.0 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION AND WATER QUALITY WAS 1.27....

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 062002
SWODY1
SPC AC 062000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
FEW CHANGES TO PRIOR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SHOWERS/POTENTIALLY SOME
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR/ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
TX INTO OK. GIVEN THAT A CONSIDERABLE CAP /12Z DFW OBSERVED
SOUNDING/ IS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE PRESENCE OF NEBULOUS LARGE
SCALE INFLUENCES...SEVERE POTENTIAL SEEMS UNLIKELY THROUGH PEAK
HEATING. OTHERWISE...AS DESCRIBED BELOW...THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER DARK
/ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT/ ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INTO OK WITH HAIL AS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

...COASTAL CA...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA. HOWEVER...GIVEN
WEAK/RELATIVELY SHALLOW BUOYANCY...THIS POTENTIAL APPEARS SUB-10
PERCENT.

..GUYER.. 11/06/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2011/

...SRN PLAINS...
12Z UPR ANALYSIS INDICATES RETURN FLOW HAS TRANSPORTED 14 DEG C H85
DEW POINTS NWD INTO THE MID-RIO GRANDE VLY. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WCNTRL/CNTRL TX THROUGH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE DIGGING MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE SWRN U.S.

BAND OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT IN A
MODEST WARM CONVEYOR FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO THE OZARKS. SMALL HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY AFTER DARK.
COMPARATIVELY MORE ROBUST STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG THE
TX/NM BORDER ENEWD INTO SWRN OK VERY LATE TONIGHT /AFT 09Z/. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF A 45 KT SLY LLJ THAT BEGINS
RESPONDING TO LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS. FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COINCIDENT WITH MOISTENING PROFILES AOB H85 /MUCAPE 1500-2500 J PER
KG/ . VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 35-40 KTS AND SUGGESTS THAT
STRONGER ELEVATED UPDRAFTS MAY ACHIEVE BRIEF ROTATION YIELDING LARGE
HAIL. LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RECENT TREND IN
SLOWER CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION /DELAYED UNTIL AFT 12Z PER 12Z
NAM/...CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW
TO NOT UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK.

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KRIW [061942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 061942
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1233 PM MDT SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 AM SNOW BURNTFORK 41.02N 110.00W
11/06/2011 M2.00 INCHES SWEETWATER WY PUBLIC

0955 AM SNOW 36 S GREEN RIVER 41.00N 109.42W
11/06/2011 M3.00 INCHES SWEETWATER WY PUBLIC

0956 AM SNOW 7 S CASPER 42.73N 106.35W
11/06/2011 M2.00 INCHES NATRONA WY TRAINED SPOTTER

CASPER MOUNTAIN

1142 AM SNOW 4 WSW PAHASKA 44.48N 110.04W
11/06/2011 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

1212 PM SNOW THERMOPOLIS 43.65N 108.20W
11/06/2011 M4.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1212 PM SNOW 2 SSW LOVELL 44.80N 108.41W
11/06/2011 M4.10 INCHES BIG HORN WY COCORAHS

1212 PM SNOW 5 ESE CODY 44.49N 108.95W
11/06/2011 M3.80 INCHES PARK WY COCORAHS

1213 PM SNOW 1 SW THERMOPOLIS 43.63N 108.22W
11/06/2011 M3.80 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY COCORAHS

1213 PM SNOW 1 SW THERMOPOLIS 43.63N 108.23W
11/06/2011 M3.50 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY COCORAHS

1213 PM SNOW 5 NNW TEN SLEEP 44.10N 107.45W
11/06/2011 M3.40 INCHES WASHAKIE WY COCORAHS

1213 PM SNOW 27 S TEN SLEEP 43.65N 107.37W
11/06/2011 M2.70 INCHES WASHAKIE WY COCORAHS

1214 PM SNOW 5 SSE SMOOT 42.55N 110.88W
11/06/2011 M2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY COCORAHS

1214 PM SNOW 4 NNE THAYNE 42.97N 110.95W
11/06/2011 M2.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY COCORAHS

1214 PM SNOW 2 WSW CODY 44.51N 109.09W
11/06/2011 M2.00 INCHES PARK WY COCORAHS

1214 PM SNOW 14 NW PINEDALE 42.98N 110.08W
11/06/2011 M0.60 INCHES SUBLETTE WY COCORAHS

1215 PM SNOW 4 ENE POWELL 44.78N 108.68W
11/06/2011 M0.50 INCHES PARK WY COCORAHS

1215 PM SNOW 17 E KAYCEE 43.70N 106.29W
11/06/2011 M0.20 INCHES JOHNSON WY COCORAHS

1215 PM SNOW 10 W PAHASKA 44.48N 110.16W
11/06/2011 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL

1215 PM HEAVY SNOW 21 W CLARK 44.94N 109.57W
11/06/2011 E8.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL

1216 PM HEAVY SNOW 13 W BARNUM 43.63N 107.18W
11/06/2011 E7.00 INCHES WASHAKIE WY MESONET

MIDDLE POWDER SNOTEL

1216 PM HEAVY SNOW 21 SW BARNUM 43.47N 107.24W
11/06/2011 E6.00 INCHES NATRONA WY MESONET

GRAVE SPRING SNOTEL

1216 PM SNOW GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL 43.78N 110.93W
11/06/2011 M3.00 INCHES TETON WY PUBLIC

1216 PM SNOW 24 ESE BOULDER 42.65N 109.26W
11/06/2011 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

1216 PM SNOW 25 SW LANDER 42.58N 109.08W
11/06/2011 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LARSEN CREEK SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW 16 E BOULDER 42.71N 109.41W
11/06/2011 E1.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

POCKET CREEK SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW 19 SSW LANDER 42.59N 108.90W
11/06/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW 18 W LANDER 42.87N 109.09W
11/06/2011 E2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

1217 PM SNOW 7 NW ATLANTIC CITY 42.57N 108.84W
11/06/2011 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

&&

$$

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KREV [061925]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 061925
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1125 AM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 AM SNOW 1 NE INCLINE VILLAGE 39.26N 119.94W
11/06/2011 M1.0 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT 6700 FEET
ELEVATION. VERY SLICK AND ICY ROADS AS WELL.

0725 AM SNOW 5 ENE CISCO 39.32N 120.45W
11/06/2011 M8.0 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

8 INCHES NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 0.83 INCH
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH OF 12 INCHES.

0742 AM SNOW SQUAW VALLEY 39.20N 120.22W
11/06/2011 M6.0 INCH PLACER CA PUBLIC

6 INCHES NEW SNOW AT 6200 FEET AND 8 INCHES AT 8200 FEET
IN PAST 24 HOURS REPORTED FROM SQUAW VALLEY SKI RESORT.

0800 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
11/06/2011 M3.0 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR STORM TOTAL 3.0 INCHES SNOWFALL WITH 8 INCHES
SNOW DEPTH.

0804 AM SNOW BODIE 38.21N 119.01W
11/06/2011 M0.6 INCH MONO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

0.6 INCH NEW SNOW MEASURED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A
0.06 INCH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT. CURRENT SNOW DEPTH OF 1
INCH.

0804 AM SNOW 2 SE SPANISH SPRINGS 39.65N 119.69W
11/06/2011 M0.3 INCH WASHOE NV TRAINED SPOTTER

0.3 INCH NEW SNOW MEASURED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT OF 0.03 INCH. VISIBILITY 1/2 MILE
IN FOG.

0840 AM SNOW 5 S PROSSER CREEK RESER 39.31N 120.18W
11/06/2011 M1.0 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH NEW SNOW IN PAST 24 HOURS IN TRUCKEE.

0846 AM SNOW 5 SW SOUTH LAKE TAHOE 38.88N 120.03W
11/06/2011 M3.0 INCH EL DORADO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

0901 AM SNOW MAMMOTH LAKES 37.64N 118.96W
11/06/2011 M7.0 INCH MONO CA PUBLIC

7 INCHES NEW SNOW IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AT THE SESAME SNOW
STUDY SITE ON MAMMOTH MOUNTAIN AT ELEVATION 9000 FEET.

1000 AM SNOW 1 NE CARSON CITY 39.18N 119.75W
11/06/2011 M1.0 INCH CARSON CITY NV TRAINED SPOTTER

24 STORM TOTAL OF 1.0 INCHES SNOWFALL WITH 0.09 INCHES
WATER EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

JKIELHOR

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KHNX [061909]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 061909
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1109 AM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW TUOLUMNE MEADOWS 37.87N 119.35W
11/05/2011 M2.0 INCH TUOLUMNE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ELEVATION 8,694 FT. 0.06 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW LODGEPOLE 36.60N 118.73W
11/05/2011 M2.0 INCH TULARE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ELEVATION 6,690 FT. 0.12 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW GRANT GROVE 36.74N 118.96W
11/06/2011 M3.0 INCH FRESNO CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ELEVATION 6,600 FT. 0.25 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT.

0800 AM SNOW PONDEROSA 36.10N 118.52W
11/06/2011 M5.0 INCH TULARE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOVE CAMP NELSON. ELEVATION 7,200 FT.

0800 AM SNOW LODGEPOLE 36.60N 118.73W
11/06/2011 M6.0 INCH TULARE CA CO-OP OBSERVER

ELEVATION 6,690 FT. 0.40 INCH PRECIPITATION OR LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT.

0805 AM SNOW 4 ESE PINE MOUNTAIN CLU 34.83N 119.10W
11/06/2011 E1.0 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOVE CUDDY VALLEY. ELEVATION 5,900 FT.

1000 AM SNOW BEAR VALLEY SPRINGS 35.16N 118.62W
11/06/2011 M1.0 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

ELEVATION 5,631 FT. 0.11 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OR LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT.

&&

$$

BSO

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KMFR [061905]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 061905
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1105 AM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0857 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE BROOKINGS 42.05N 124.26W
11/06/2011 M2.13 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KVEF [061748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 061748
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PST SUN NOV 06 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM SNOW 4 WNW MT. CHARLESTON 36.30N 115.68W
11/06/2011 E2.5 INCH CLARK NV PUBLIC

LAS VEGAS SKI AND SNOWBOARD RESORT REPORTED 2.5 INCHES OF
SNOW FELL SINCE 7 AM TODAY AT AN ELEVATION OF 8800 FEET.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061732
SWODY2
SPC AC 061730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 06 2011

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WITH THE POLAR JET/SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING/DIGGING
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST...THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EAST/EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS IT TAKES ON A MORE NEUTRAL TILT WHILE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. IN RESPONSE...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS TO THE
EAST OF A SHARPENING WEST TX DRYLINE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON
MONDAY /AND INTO TUESDAY/ ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS DESCRIBED...SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE ONGOING/INCREASE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN A WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME...AND THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY
OF ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS MAINLY CAPABLE OF HAIL ACROSS
NORTHWEST TX INTO OK MONDAY MORNING. WITH TIME...GIVEN THE ARRIVAL
OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND A CONTINUALLY MOISTENING/DIURNALLY
WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE INTO
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR SURFACE BASED SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE GRADUALLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW/PERIPHERAL DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST/PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK. HERE...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER/PERHAPS MIDDLE 60S F WILL BE PREVALENT BENEATH AN
EASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MLCAPES TO REACH AS HIGH AS 1000-1500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE MODE ARE A BIT
UNCERTAIN...A MIXED MODE SEEMS PROBABLE WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF INITIAL MODE
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST/PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO
SOUTHWEST OK...ASIDE FROM A GENERAL TENDENCY FOR LINEAR/SQUALL
LINE-TYPE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND WEST/NORTH
TX...ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD LATE
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. OVERALL...ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES...INCLUDING RISKS FOR A STRONG TORNADO GIVEN THE
INCREASINGLY LARGE/ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS THAT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 11/06/2011

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