SWODY1
SPC AC 070048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST SUN NOV 06 2011
VALID 070100Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
A LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTH
TX ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IN NORTH TX EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW SFC-BASED CAPE OF 1500
J/KG...40-45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHTS FROM
THE SFC TO 700 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL THREAT WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL. HAVE ADDED A 2
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY FROM NEAR ABILENE NEWD INTO FAR SRN OK
FOR THIS EVENING. AS A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WEST TX LATE TONIGHT. IN
SPITE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION...MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LUBBOCK AND AMARILLO ENEWD INTO WRN OK
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE AXIS OF A 30 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS CORRIDOR AT 09Z TO 12Z SHOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM 700 TO 500 MB...60 KT OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF
1500 J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AS STORMS INITIATE AROUND 09Z AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. HAVE MAINTAINED A 5 PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY FOR THIS
SCENARIO.
..BROYLES.. 11/07/2011
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