KGGW [090454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 090454
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
953 PM MST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 PM SNOW 2 NNE FORT PECK 48.03N 106.44W
01/08/2011 M5.0 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL. LIQUID WATER CONTENT OF SNOW
0.33 INCHES. STOPPED SNOWING AT APPROXIMATELY 130 PM.

0240 PM SNOW 6 N MILDRED 46.76N 104.96W
01/08/2011 E2.5 INCH PRAIRIE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL. NOT SNOWING
NOW...STOPPED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 PM.

0243 PM SNOW 9 S TERRY 46.67N 105.30W
01/08/2011 E1.0 INCH PRAIRIE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL. NOT SNOWING NOW.

0244 PM SNOW 3 WSW WELDON 47.60N 105.96W
01/08/2011 E3.0 INCH MCCONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL. NOT SNOWING NOW.

0246 PM SNOW 6 S WOLF POINT 48.01N 105.63W
01/08/2011 E2.5 INCH MCCONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL. NOT SNOWING
NOW...STOPPED AT APPROXIMATELY 145 PM.

0409 PM SNOW 15 SSE CULBERTSON 47.93N 104.45W
01/08/2011 E1.0 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 3/4 TO 1 INCH. TEMP 14 FAHRENHEIT. WINDS LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. SNOW STOPPED AT 312 PM.

0500 PM SNOW PORT OF MORGAN 49.00N 107.83W
01/08/2011 M3.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOW TOTAL SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW DEPTH 7 INCHES.

0500 PM SNOW GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
01/08/2011 M7.2 INCH VALLEY MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED 7.2 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL. NOT SNOWING NOW.
LIQUID PRECIP TOTAL 0.42 INCHES.

0510 PM HEAVY SNOW NASHUA 48.13N 106.36W
01/08/2011 M6.0 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LIQUID PREIP TOTAL
0.20 INCH. SNOW DEPTH 17 INCHES.

0650 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 E PEERLESS 48.78N 105.80W
01/08/2011 M6.0 INCH DANIELS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH BLOWING SNOW AND 1/4
TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY LASTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

0652 PM SNOW 4 NW SCOBEY 48.83N 105.48W
01/08/2011 M4.0 INCH DANIELS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL TOTAL TODAY

0655 PM SNOW 20 S FLAXVILLE 48.51N 105.17W
01/08/2011 M2.0 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BLOWING SNOW REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO LESS THEN 1/2 OF
A MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

0717 PM SNOW 7 ENE WOLF POINT 48.13N 105.50W
01/08/2011 E2.0 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIY TO LESS THEN 1/2 OF A MILES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

0805 PM SNOW 9 SSW CHAPMAN 48.74N 108.20W
01/08/2011 M4.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL AND NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH AT THE TIME OF THE CALL.

0811 PM SNOW DODSON 48.40N 108.24W
01/08/2011 M5.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF CALL.

0815 PM SNOW 5 ENE ZORTMAN 47.95N 108.43W
01/08/2011 E1.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOUT A QUARTER TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH NO WIND AT
THE TIME OF CALL.

&&

$$

GREGF

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KIWX [090441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 090441
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1141 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1138 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 S SAINT JOSEPH 42.07N 86.47W
01/08/2011 M13.5 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO DAY STORM TOTAL SNOW 13.5 INCHES...SNOWFALL 12.0
INCHES SINCE 4 AM TODAY

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100049

$$

SKIPPER

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KLOT [090434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 090434
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1034 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1033 PM SNOW CHESTERTON 41.60N 87.06W
01/08/2011 M3.0 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

$$

MDB

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KDLH [090429]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 090429
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1028 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 PM SNOW 4 W WASHBURN 46.67N 90.98W
01/08/2011 M4.5 INCH BAYFIELD WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

DPACKING

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KGSP [090424]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 090424
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1123 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1105 PM SNOW DEPTH 9 WSW ROBBINSVILLE 35.27N 83.95W
01/08/2011 M10.0 INCH GRAHAM NC TRAINED SPOTTER

TEMPERATURE 7.8 DEGREES AT ELEVATION 3850 FEET

&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KUNR [090357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 090357
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
857 PM MST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM HEAVY SNOW 12 W UPTON 44.10N 104.87W
01/08/2011 M10.0 INCH WESTON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

WFO UNR

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KDLH [090351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 090351
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
951 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0949 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
01/08/2011 M20.2 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL...ADDITIONAL 2.2 INCHES.

&&

$$

SCW

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KIWX [090343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 090343
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1043 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 PM HEAVY SNOW BENTON HARBOR 42.12N 86.45W
01/08/2011 M19.0 INCH BERRIEN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. 2 INCHES IN LAST HOUR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100048

$$

CEO

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KDTX [090334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDTX 090334
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1031 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM SNOW 4 S FLINT 42.96N 83.69W
01/08/2011 M1.5 INCH GENESEE MI BROADCAST MEDIA

1 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

0111 PM SNOW SWARTZ CREEK 42.96N 83.83W
01/08/2011 M1.8 INCH GENESEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING NOON

0626 PM SNOW 2 WSW PORT AUSTIN 44.03N 83.03W
01/08/2011 M8.0 INCH HURON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SINCE 7 AM...2 INCHES IN THE PAST 3 HOURS.

0725 PM SNOW MINDEN 43.67N 82.78W
01/08/2011 E6.0 INCH SANILAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR TOTAL

0725 PM SNOW SANDUSKY 43.42N 82.83W
01/08/2011 E3.0 INCH SANILAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 HOUR TOTAL

0729 PM SNOW UBLY 43.71N 82.93W
01/08/2011 E7.0 INCH HURON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL OF 7 TO 8 INCHES

0730 PM SNOW JEDDO 43.15N 82.58W
01/08/2011 E1.0 INCH ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

CLARK

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KGGW [090332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 090332
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
831 PM MST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW PORT OF MORGAN 49.00N 107.83W
01/08/2011 M3.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOW TOTAL SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW DEPTH 7 INCHES.

0510 PM HEAVY SNOW NASHUA 48.13N 106.36W
01/08/2011 M6.0 INCH VALLEY MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL TOTAL SINCE FRIDAY NIGHT. LIQUID PREIP TOTAL
0.20 INCH. SNOW DEPTH 17 INCHES.

0650 PM HEAVY SNOW 1 E PEERLESS 48.78N 105.80W
01/08/2011 M6.0 INCH DANIELS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH BLOWING SNOW AND 1/4
TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY LASTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

0652 PM SNOW 4 NW SCOBEY 48.83N 105.48W
01/08/2011 M4.0 INCH DANIELS MT CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL TOTAL TODAY

0655 PM SNOW 20 S FLAXVILLE 48.51N 105.17W
01/08/2011 M2.0 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

BLOWING SNOW REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO LESS THEN 1/2 OF
A MILE FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

0717 PM SNOW 7 ENE WOLF POINT 48.13N 105.50W
01/08/2011 E2.0 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL ALONG WITH BLOWING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIY TO LESS THEN 1/2 OF A MILES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

0805 PM SNOW 9 SSW CHAPMAN 48.74N 108.20W
01/08/2011 M4.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL AND NORTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15
MPH AT THE TIME OF THE CALL.

0811 PM SNOW DODSON 48.40N 108.24W
01/08/2011 M5.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

4 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS AT THE TIME OF CALL.

0815 PM SNOW 5 ENE ZORTMAN 47.95N 108.43W
01/08/2011 E1.0 INCH PHILLIPS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOUT A QUARTER TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH NO WIND AT
THE TIME OF CALL.

&&

$$

RSMITH

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KMQT [090328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 090328
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1028 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0412 PM SNOW MOHAWK 47.30N 88.36W
01/08/2011 E5.0 INCH KEWEENAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

8 HOUR REPORT. CURRENTLY SNOWING WITH RATES BETWEEN 1 AND
2 INCHES AN HOUR.

0500 PM SNOW 7 SW ISHPEMING 46.42N 87.77W
01/08/2011 M14.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI PUBLIC

24 HOUR REPORT.

0530 PM SNOW 2 ESE CARLSHEND 46.30N 87.18W
01/08/2011 M16.0 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL THUS FAR. 5 INCHES MEASURED SINCE LAST REPORT
AT 900 AM THIS MORNING.

0553 PM SNOW 1 N ROUND LAKE 46.16N 86.75W
01/08/2011 E6.0 INCH DELTA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR REPORT. CURRENTLY LIGHTLY SNOWING.

0600 PM SNOW 6 ESE ONTONAGON 46.83N 89.21W
01/08/2011 M2.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 0.09 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. 7 INCHES
SNOW DEPTH.

0605 PM SNOW 2 ENE MUNISING 46.42N 86.62W
01/08/2011 E15.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL THUS FAR. MEASURED 10 INCHES AS OF 5PM
YESTERDAY. REPORTED AN ESTIMATED 4 TO 5 MORE INCHES IN
LAST 24 HOURS.

0617 PM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
01/08/2011 E9.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

8 TO 10 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED 6 INCHES SINCE
THIS MORNING.

0630 PM SNOW ENE CHATHAM 46.34N 86.93W
01/08/2011 M15.1 INCH ALGER MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL THUS FAR. RECEIVED 7.7 INCHES IN PAST 24
HOURS.

0635 PM SNOW 2 WNW CHATHAM 46.35N 86.97W
01/08/2011 M9.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

30 HOUR REPORT. REPORTED MEASURING 3 INCHES BETWEEN 1030
AM AND 1140 PM YESTERDAY... THEN ANOTHER 6 INCHES FROM
1000 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

0639 PM SNOW 4 E DEERTON 46.48N 86.95W
01/08/2011 E5.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR REPORT.

0813 PM SNOW MOHAWK 47.30N 88.36W
01/08/2011 M5.8 INCH KEWEENAW MI CO-OP OBSERVER

12 HOUR REPORT. 23 INCHES SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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KBIS [090319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 090319
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
919 PM CST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM SNOW WILLISTON 48.15N 103.63W
01/08/2011 M1.3 INCH WILLIAMS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL THUS FAR.

&&

$$

PAYD

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KGRR [090242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 090242
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
942 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0928 PM SNOW 5 SW PAW PAW 42.17N 85.96W
01/08/2011 E11.0 INCH VAN BUREN MI PUBLIC

THIS WAS A TOTAL SINCE 11 AM EST ON 01/07/11.

&&

$$

WH

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KTFX [090211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 090211
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
710 PM MST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW 12 WSW BABB 48.79N 113.68W
01/08/2011 M8.0 INCH GLACIER MT MESONET

&&

$$

BLANK

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KDTX [090127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 090127
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
827 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM SNOW JEDDO 43.15N 82.58W
01/08/2011 E1.0 INCH ST. CLAIR MI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 HOUR TOTAL

&&

$$

DG

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KIWX [090030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 090030
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
730 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HEAVY SNOW LA PORTE 41.61N 86.72W
01/08/2011 M7.5 INCH LAPORTE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. 2.4 INCHES IN LAST 12 HOURS

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100044

$$

CEO

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KMQT [090025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 090025
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
725 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM SNOW 6 ESE ONTONAGON 46.83N 89.21W
01/08/2011 M2.0 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR REPORT. 0.09 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. 7 INCHES
SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

JMWIX

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080504
SWODY2
SPC AC 080503

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2011

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE LARGE DEEP CYCLONE...NOW
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
IN ITS WAKE...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE
SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN INITIAL COLD SURFACE RIDGE...FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS AIR MASS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY AND
RETREAT EASTWARD...EVEN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE LIFTS
EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IN ADVANCE
OF A STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET STREAK PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

AS THE LEAD IMPULSE TRANSLATES TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/ SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS REGION...MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN GENERALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. BUT
IT APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME MOSTLY FOCUSED TO THE COOL SIDE OF A
WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE GULF
COAST. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE OR BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR...IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
LOW. IF THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROBABLY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE
RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. EVEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
PARISHES...THOUGH...THE PROBABILITY THAT THIS WILL IMPACT AREAS
INLAND OF THE GULF COAST APPEARS LOW.

..KERR.. 01/08/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080502
SWODY1
SPC AC 080500

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CST FRI JAN 07 2011

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL SLOWLY DEAMPLIFY AND SHIFT
EWD ALLOWING POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER AZ TO ADVANCE INTO
TX SATURDAY NIGHT. POLAR FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SERN STATES WWD
INTO S CNTRL TX WILL MOVE FARTHER SWD TODAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL
ACROSS S TX AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND SFC WAVE DEVELOPS OVER NRN
MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. THE LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER FRONT OF PACIFIC ORIGIN THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS DEEP S TX LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SRN TX...

PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR HAS BEGUN RETURNING THROUGH S TX...AND
LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY CHARACTERIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR TODAY. THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED ABOVE THE
POLAR FRONT AND BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS FAR NORTH AS CNTRL TX. WEAK SBCAPE
WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT
FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DESTABILIZATION AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
POLAR FRONT TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
OVER DEEP S TX WHERE SURFACE BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG EWD
ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. IN THE DEEP S TX WARM SECTOR...VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS...BUT THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/08/2011

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