KRLX [131913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131913
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
211 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM FLOOD HARRISVILLE 39.16N 81.03W
12/13/2007 RITCHIE WV PUBLIC

STREAMS IN BUILDINGS.
EVENT TIME UNKNOWN
SOMETIME BEFORE 105 PM 12/13/2007

&&

$$

NNNN

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KRLX [131843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131843
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
142 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 PM FLOOD PARKERSBURG 39.28N 81.52W
12/13/2007 WOOD WV PUBLIC

WATER OVER CORE RD.

&&

$$

NNNN

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KRLX [131817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131817
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM FLOOD
12/13/2007 TAYLOR WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TURNER RD...TAYLOR SCHOOL RD...MEADLAND RD...ASTER
BRANCH OF WV STATE RT 76...AND WV STATE RT 76 AT
VETERANS HWY ARE ALL CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER
FROM NEARBY CREEKS EXCEEDING THEIR BANKS.

&&

$$

NW

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KRLX [131813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131813
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
113 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM FLOOD 4 NW WEBSTER 39.37N 80.11W
12/13/2007 TAYLOR WV DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

US HWY 50 CLOSED THROUGH TOWN OF BELGIUM DUE TO HIGH
WATER FROM NEARBY CREEKS EXCEEDING THEIR BANKS.

&&

$$

NW

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KPIH [131800]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 131800
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO/IDAHO FALLS ID
1100 AM MST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM SNOW IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
12/13/2007 E1.2 INCH BONNEVILLE ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 AM SNOW 3 W RIRIE 43.63N 111.83W
12/13/2007 M2.5 INCH JEFFERSON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

1045 AM SNOW 2 W POCATELLO 42.88N 112.51W
12/13/2007 M0.3 INCH POWER ID NWS EMPLOYEE

MEASURED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

&&

$$

VALLE

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KPBZ [131749]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 131749
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1249 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM FLOOD 2 ESE ARNOLD 40.57N 79.72W
12/13/2007 WESTMORELAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORT OF SMALL STREAMS AND MINOR ROADWAYS FLOODING

&&

$$

JDARNLEY

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
THE SPLIT BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC WILL REMAIN PROMINENT TO MUCH OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST THAT PHASING OF ITS TWO PRIMARY
BRANCHES...AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...WITH
ANOTHER STREAM EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...WILL OCCUR
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AND...THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
THE EVOLUTION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/ROCKIES...WHICH IS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS/RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE DEVELOPING UPPER SYSTEM...TO THE LEE OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY...AND ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...WITH
ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIKELY SWEEPING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER CLOSELY ON ITS
HEELS. SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO TEMPORARILY OVERSPREAD
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...BUT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKENING.

..SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
THE EVOLVING PATTERN SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE
LIFT...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...AND A MODEST RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO DESTABILIZATION. BUT...THIS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...AND BASED ABOVE A LINGERING SURFACE OR
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS
INTO UPPER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PERHAPS AS
FAR SOUTH AS MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS. SO...WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL FORCING AND
SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
NEGLIGIBLE.

..FLORIDA PENINSULA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND WEAKENING INHIBITION AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING/RETREATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FRIDAY WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY NEAR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
MODELS INDICATE STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...AND COOLING...WITH A 500 MB COLD CORE AROUND -30C...
PROGRESSING INTO THE NORTHERN CASCADES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOISTENING ONSHORE
FLOW...THIS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

.KERR.. 12/13/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2216

ACUS11 KWNS 131731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131730
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-132130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2216
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PA...CNTRL/SRN NY...NRN
NJ...MA/CT/RI...SRN VT/NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 131730Z - 132130Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD EWD FROM CNTRL/SRN NY AND NERN PA
ACROSS THE REST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF
1 TO 2 IN/HR WILL REMAIN LIKELY...WITH THE MOST PROBABLE HEAVY SNOW
FALL AXIS RUNNING FROM SERN NY ACROSS MA/CT/RI THROUGH 00Z. FARTHER
SW...LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN PA INTO NRN NJ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AFTER 21Z.

THE COMBINATION OF FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH /NOW
OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION /PER ANALYZED 12Z UPPER AIR CHARTS
AND RECENT VAD PROFILERS/...HAVE RESULTED IN A BROAD REGION OF
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH EVOLVES FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST...LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY
STRONG ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 00Z...WHILE ASCENT QUICKLY
DIMINISHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. MORNING MODELS ALONG WITH
00Z 4 KM WRF-NSSL/NMM GUIDANCE DEPICT EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE
HEAVIEST FROZEN QPF AXIS FROM NERN PA/SERN NY ACROSS MUCH OF
CT/RI/MA. FARTHER N OVER SRN VT/NH...A LARGER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
WILL COMPENSATE FOR MORE MODEST ASCENT...AND THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR.

EXTRAPOLATION OF REGIONAL ACARS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
ONLY AROUND A 50 KM NEWD SHIFT IN THE DELINEATION BETWEEN
PREDOMINANT SNOW VERSUS SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE SHOULD REMAIN AOB FREEZING TO THE N AND E OF POU OWING TO
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND
AND EXPECTED CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE LONG ISLAND COAST. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY MAINTAIN AN E/NELY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR-SURFACE FLOW
ALLOWING HEAVY SNOW TO FALL.

.GRAMS.. 12/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

42987070 42006993 41597029 41417143 41127239 40777327
40607426 40257500 40057664 40247834 40877910 41577924
42447812 43217624 43367449 43417303 43217158

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KPBZ [131717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 131717
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1217 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 PM FLOOD 15 S REEDSVILLE 39.29N 79.80W
12/13/2007 PRESTON WV EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORT THAT FLATROCK ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

$$

JDARNLEY

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KPBZ [131702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 131702
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1201 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 PM FLOOD 20 S REEDSVILLE 39.22N 79.80W
12/13/2007 TUCKER WV EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORT THAT FLATROCK ROAD IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

$$

JDARNLEY

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KLMK [131701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131701
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 PM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM FLOOD RICHMOND 37.74N 84.29W
12/13/2007 MADISON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

CATALPA LOOP ROAD CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

1050 AM FLOOD NICHOLASVILLE 37.88N 84.58W
12/13/2007 JESSAMINE KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WEST BLAINE AND MACKEY PIKE CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER

&&

$$

13

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KGRR [131645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 131645
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1145 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 AM FREEZING RAIN NEWAYGO 43.42N 85.80W
12/13/2007 E0.00 INCH NEWAYGO MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

FREEZING DRIZZLE. ROADWAYS REPORTED BECOMING VERY ICY.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KRLX [131627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131627
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1127 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 AM FLASH FLOOD SISTERSVILLE 39.56N 81.00W
12/13/2007 TYLER WV CO-OP OBSERVER

WATER OVER BUCK RUN RD.

&&

$$

NW

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KRLX [131625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131625
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1124 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 AM FLASH FLOOD MIDDLEBOURNE 39.49N 80.91W
12/13/2007 TYLER WV CO-OP OBSERVER

WATER OVER ELK FORK RD.

&&

$$

NW

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KDLH [131610]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 131610
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1010 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 AM SNOW 3 SW LITTLEFORK 48.37N 93.60W
12/13/2007 M1.0 INCH KOOCHICHING MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KGRR [131603]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 131603
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1102 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1049 AM SNOW DIMONDALE 42.65N 84.65W
12/13/2007 E0.3 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SECONDARY ROADS VERY SLICK.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [131551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 131551
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1051 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1049 AM FREEZING RAIN DIMONDALE 42.65N 84.65W
12/13/2007 E0.00 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

FREEZING DRIZZLE. SECONDARY ROADS VERY SLICK.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KRLX [131547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131547
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1046 AM FLASH FLOOD ST. MARYS 39.40N 81.20W
12/13/2007 PLEASANTS WV PUBLIC

MIDDLE ISLAND CREEK OVER BANKS AND FLOODING FISH POT RD.
IN ST. MARYS

&&

$$

NW

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KPBZ [131546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPBZ 131546
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1046 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM FLOOD GRANVILLE 39.65N 79.99W
12/13/2007 MONONGALIA WV BROADCAST MEDIA

GRANVILLE RUN IS OUT OF ITS BANKS WITH REPORTS OF
FLOODING

&&

$$

DARNLEY

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KTFX [131545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 131545
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
845 AM MST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E EAST GLACIER PARK 48.45N 113.18W
12/11/2007 M59.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

59 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR EAST GLACIER
PARK.

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BABB 48.86N 113.44W
12/11/2007 M70.00 MPH GLACIER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEAK WIND GUST OF 70 MPH.

1139 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
12/11/2007 M62.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

0130 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 N CHOTEAU 47.83N 112.18W
12/12/2007 M40.00 MPH TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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KPBZ [131544]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 131544
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1044 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1044 AM FLOOD MORGANTOWN 39.64N 79.95W
12/13/2007 MONONGALIA WV EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS ROADWAYS ARE CLOSED

&&

$$

DARNLEY

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KPBZ [131541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 131541
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1040 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM FLOOD GRANVILLE 39.65N 79.99W
12/13/2007 MONONGALIA WV BROADCAST MEDIA

GRANVILLE RUN IS OUT OF ITS BANKS WITH REPORTS OF
FLOODING

&&

$$

DARNLEY

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KGRR [131541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KGRR 131541
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1041 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM FREEZING RAIN MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.26W
12/13/2007 E0.01 INCH MUSKEGON MI NWS EMPLOYEE

ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH. JUST ENOUGH TO
COAT ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131538
SWODY1
SPC AC 131535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
AXIS OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW MOIST
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL INHIBIT DEEPER CONVECTION AND LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. OVER FAR S FL...REMNANTS OF
T.S. OLGA AND ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NNWWD WITH TIME. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AND SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SRN TIP OF FL AND ADJACENT COASTAL SECTIONS BY LATER TODAY AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOP NNWWD ACROSS MORE OF SRN FL TONIGHT.

.EVANS.. 12/13/2007

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KGRR [131538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 131538
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1037 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 AM FREEZING RAIN MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.26W
12/13/2007 E1.00 INCH MUSKEGON MI NWS EMPLOYEE

ACCUMULATION LESS THAN A TENTH OF INCH. JUST ENOUGH TO
COAT ROADWAYS.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [131514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 131514
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1014 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM FREEZING RAIN GRAND HAVEN 43.06N 86.22W
12/13/2007 E0.00 INCH OTTAWA MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

FREEZING DRIZZLE. ACCIDENTS ALL OVER COUNTY.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KRLX [131511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131511
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1009 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM HEAVY RAIN BRIDGEPORT 39.29N 80.23W
12/13/2007 HARRISON WV PUBLIC

STANDING WATER ON RT. 131

&&

$$

NNNN

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KPBZ [131505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 131505
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1005 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM FLOOD FAIRMONT 39.48N 80.15W
12/13/2007 MARION WV BROADCAST MEDIA

DECKERS CREEK IS REPORTED OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

$$

DARNLEY

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KGRR [131456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 131456
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
956 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0954 AM FREEZING RAIN HART 43.70N 86.36W
12/13/2007 E0.00 INCH OCEANA MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS ACCIDENTS ACROSS COUNTY.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [131449]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 131449
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
949 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0947 AM FREEZING RAIN MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.26W
12/13/2007 E0.00 INCH MUSKEGON MI PUBLIC

HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN MUSKEGON.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [131446]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 131446
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
946 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 AM FREEZING RAIN 1 N HESPERIA 43.57N 86.06W
12/13/2007 E0.06 INCH OCEANA MI PUBLIC

FREEZING DRIZZLE 1/16 INCH

&&

$$

TTURNAGE

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KPBZ [131440]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 131440
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
940 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM FLOOD MANNINGTON 39.53N 80.34W
12/13/2007 MARION WV EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS ROADWAYS ARE CLOSED.

&&

$$

DARNLEY

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KILN [131430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KILN 131430
LSRILN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
929 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0902 AM FLOOD 4 SE VANCEBURG 38.55N 83.28W
12/13/2007 LEWIS KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER ROCK RUN RD.

0902 AM FLOOD 10 E VANCEBURG 38.62N 83.13W
12/13/2007 LEWIS KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER RTE. 8 NEAR QUINCY.

&&

$$

SITES

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KRLX [131404]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131404
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
902 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

855 AM FLOOD LOST CREEK 39.16N 80.35W
12/13/2007 HARRISON WV PUBLIC

STREAMS OVER ROADS OR BRIDGES.
EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
845 AM 12/13/2007 AND 855 AM 12/13/2007

&&

$$

NNNN

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KLMK [131359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLMK 131359
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
859 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM FLOOD LEXINGTON 38.04N 84.46W
12/13/2007 FAYETTE KY BROADCAST MEDIA

TODDS RD., LIBERTY RD., AND NEW CIRCLE RD. ARE ALL CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0730 AM FLOOD PARIS 38.21N 84.26W
12/13/2007 BOURBON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW COUNTY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0730 AM FLOOD WINCHESTER 38.00N 84.19W
12/13/2007 CLARK KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW COUNTY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0730 AM FLOOD LAWRENCEBURG 38.03N 84.89W
12/13/2007 ANDERSON KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

A FEW COUNTY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0830 AM FLOOD LEITCHFIELD 37.48N 86.29W
12/13/2007 GRAYSON KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CREEKS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

0841 AM FLOOD 2 SE CLAYPOOL 36.88N 86.22W
12/13/2007 ALLEN KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 1533 IN NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY IS CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0841 AM FLOOD 2 NW MORGANTOWN 37.24N 86.73W
12/13/2007 BUTLER KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 403 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 5 ARE
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0841 AM FLOOD 1 NE LEWISBURG 37.00N 86.94W
12/13/2007 LOGAN KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 1153 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 5 IS
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

0841 AM FLOOD 5 W BROWNSVILLE 37.19N 86.35W
12/13/2007 EDMONSON KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 655 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 3 WERE
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. NOW OPEN.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131357
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
857 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLOOD LEITCHFIELD 37.48N 86.29W
12/13/2007 GRAYSON KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

CREEKS ARE OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE
COUNTY.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131356
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
856 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLOOD WINCHESTER 38.00N 84.19W
12/13/2007 CLARK KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW COUNTY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131356
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
856 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLOOD PARIS 38.21N 84.26W
12/13/2007 BOURBON KY LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW COUNTY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131355
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
855 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM FLOOD LAWRENCEBURG 38.03N 84.89W
12/13/2007 ANDERSON KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

A FEW COUNTY ROADS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131354
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
854 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM FLOOD 5 W BROWNSVILLE 37.19N 86.35W
12/13/2007 EDMONSON KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 655 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 3 WERE
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. NOW OPEN.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131353
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
853 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM FLOOD 1 NE LEWISBURG 37.00N 86.94W
12/13/2007 LOGAN KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 1153 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 5 IS
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131349
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
849 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM FLOOD 2 NW MORGANTOWN 37.24N 86.73W
12/13/2007 BUTLER KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 403 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 5 ARE
CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131347
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
847 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 AM FLOOD LEXINGTON 38.04N 84.46W
12/13/2007 FAYETTE KY BROADCAST MEDIA

TODDS RD., LIBERTY RD., AND NEW CIRCLE RD. ARE ALL CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AL

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KLMK [131346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLMK 131346
LSRLMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
846 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 AM FLOOD 2 SE CLAYPOOL 36.88N 86.22W
12/13/2007 ALLEN KY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

KENTUCKY ROUTE 1533 IN NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY IS CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER.

&&

$$

AL

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KRLX [131345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRLX 131345
LSRRLX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
844 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM FLOOD HARRISVILLE 39.16N 81.03W
12/13/2007 RITCHIE WV PUBLIC

STREAMS OVER ROADS OR BRIDGES.
EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
823 AM 12/13/2007 AND 838 AM 12/13/2007

&&

$$

NNNN

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KPBZ [131341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 131341
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 AM EST THU DEC 13 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 AM FLOOD FARMINGTON 39.51N 80.25W
12/13/2007 MARION WV TRAINED SPOTTER

STREAMS OUT OF THEIR BANKS

&&

$$

DARNLEY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2215

ACUS11 KWNS 131312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131311 COR
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0711 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NRN NJ AND SRN NEW
ENGLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 131311Z - 131645Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADER

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PA THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE
DOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION FROM CNTRL PA EWD TO NRN NJ WHERE ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS
INCREASED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL PA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF STRONG PVA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RAPID INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT JET LOCATED NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL.
THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS NRN PA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVER THE 1 TO 3 HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL PA AND NRN NJ...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WARM LAYER NEAR AND JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH
MID-MORNING FROM PITTSBURG PA EWD TO THE NEW YORK/NEWARK AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN PERSIST.

.BROYLES.. 12/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

40507493 40207770 40897958 41947917 42587735 42637492
42447295 41817265 41287306

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 131259
SWODY1
SPC AC 131256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
JET PATTERN ACROSS THE LWR 48 HAS TEMPORARILY REVERTED TO A MORE
ZONAL ONE...BUT AMPLIFICATION IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SIGNAL THE
RETURN OF ANOTHER SPLIT FLOW REGIME BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...BROAD/CONFLUENT WSW FLOW E OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL SERVE
TO FURTHER WEAKEN EJECTING IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE OH VLY.

FARTHER S...AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN FOR DECEMBER WILL AFFECT THE SRN
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. INVERTED TROUGH PROGRESSING W WITH
REMNANTS OF T.D OLGA WILL USHER IN A DEEP CURRENT OF UNSTABLE E/SELY
FLOW THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

..UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APLCNS...
LOW LVL WAA NOW OCCURRING OVER WV AND WRN MD ON NOSE OF 50+ KT SWLY
LLJ WILL SHIFT E OFF THE NJ CST BY MID AFTN. WHILE EMBEDDED
CONVECTION LIKELY WILL PERSIST IN ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD...
POSITIVE TILT OF DEAMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH AND AREA SOUNDING DATA
SUGGEST THAT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY NECESSARY FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/
THUNDER LIKELY WILL REMAIN LIMITED. THUS...WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES MAY OCCUR TIL MID AFTN...OVERALL COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ISOLATED.

..S FL...
INCREASINGLY RICH AND DEEP /PW APPROACHING 2 INCHES BY EVENING/
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.S. OLGA WILL OVERSPREAD
SERN FL THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COUPLED WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
E/SE FLOW...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT BANDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN. INITIALLY THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR MIA AND
OVER THE KEYS. BUT SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD SPREAD W ACROSS FAR SRN FL
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. NO SEVERE WX IS EXPECTED.

.CORFIDI.. 12/13/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2215

ACUS11 KWNS 131258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131257 COR
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NRN NJ

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 131257Z - 131645Z

CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC HEADER

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PA THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE
DOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION FROM CNTRL PA EWD TO NRN NJ WHERE ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS
INCREASED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL PA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF STRONG PVA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RAPID INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT JET LOCATED NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL.
THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS NRN PA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVER THE 1 TO 3 HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL PA AND NRN NJ...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WARM LAYER NEAR AND JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH
MID-MORNING FROM PITTSBURG PA EWD TO THE NEW YORK/NEWARK AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN PERSIST.

.BROYLES.. 12/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

40507493 40207770 40897958 41947917 42587735 42637492
42447295 41817265 41287306

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2215

ACUS11 KWNS 131249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131248
MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-131645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NY...CNTRL AND ERN PA...NRN NJ

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 131248Z - 131645Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NRN PA THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW DEVELOPING EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE THE
DOMINANT MODE OF PRECIPITATION FROM CNTRL PA EWD TO NRN NJ WHERE ICE
ACCUMULATION OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS
INCREASED FROM ERN OH EXTENDING NEWD INTO CNTRL PA OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF STRONG PVA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RAPID INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT JET LOCATED NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL.
THIS WILL ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND CREATE
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS NRN PA NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY OVER THE 1 TO 3 HOURS.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL PA AND NRN NJ...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
WARM LAYER NEAR AND JUST ABOVE 850 MB. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THROUGH
MID-MORNING FROM PITTSBURG PA EWD TO THE NEW YORK/NEWARK AREAS.
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BANDS OF FREEZING RAIN PERSIST.

.BROYLES.. 12/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

40507493 40207770 40897958 41947917 42587735 42637492
42447295 41817265 41287306

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130834
SWOD48
SPC AC 130834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

..DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
NATION WITH OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE GULF AND STABLE CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY (DAY 4) CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION
INTO A PROGRESSIVE LESS PREDICTABLE PATTERN DURING THE DAY 4-8
PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES BEYOND DAY 5. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A LOW PREDICTABILITY FORECAST FOR DAY 6-8.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO LIKELY REMAIN LOW MOST
OF THIS PERIOD.

.DIAL.. 12/13/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130809
SWODY3
SPC AC 130807

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM AND SPECTRAL MODELS PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE SRN PLAINS
DAY 2 THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS STILL EXIST. PREFER THESE
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NAM THIS FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL SURFACE LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY SATURDAY
NIGHT. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NC OR MID
ATLANTIC COASTS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN/CONSOLIDATE AS
IT LIFTS NWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

..GULF COAST THROUGH FL...

LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST TO BE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY
WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY AS VORT MAX EJECTS NEWD
FROM BASE OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. A SMALL WARM SECTOR MAY
SHIFT INLAND ALONG PARTS OF THE GULF COASTAL AREA. GIVEN TENDENCY
FOR LOW LEVEL JET TO SHIFT AWAY FROM WARM SECTOR...INLAND MOISTURE
RECOVERY AND DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL RESIDE
OVER PARTS OF FL SOUTH OF AN E-W BOUNDARY AND MAY ADVECT NWD INTO
MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FL
PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL UNDERGO SOME INCREASE...MAINLY OVER
CNTRL AND NRN FL AS A MID LEVEL JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH FL OVERNIGHT. WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DETAILS
OF THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

.DIAL.. 12/13/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2214

ACUS11 KWNS 130655
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130655
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-131230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...WRN/SCENTRAL PA...FAR NRN WV/WRN MARYLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 130655Z - 131230Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NWD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS RATES UP TO 0.05
INCH LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF RAIN MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AT 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FINDLAY OH SEWD TO NEAR PIT AND INTO FAR WRN MD.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA NOTED BY 1-2 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER
CENTRAL IND/WRN OH /AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/ WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED RAPID NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION INTO AREAS THAT
ARE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD
AIRMASS FROM THE SFC TO NEAR 700 MB WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS/RATES...BUT AS THE STRONGEST WAA OVERSPREADS THE
REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...SUFFICIENT SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
PRECIP RATES. DESPITE THE STRENGTH IN THE WAA...WET BULB EFFECTS
SHOULD AID IN A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOCATION OF THE 06Z SFC
FREEZING LINE. THE DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE GREATEST
OVER MOST OF NRN OH...FAR NRN WV/SWRN PA AND WRN MD WHERE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH 12Z. FURTHER
NE...OVER FAR NERN OH...MOST OF WRN AND SCENTRAL PA A MIX OF SLEET
AND OR MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10-12Z WHERE THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL BE MORE LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT.

.CROSBIE.. 12/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

41698085 41528283 41438419 40918480 40648448 40208254
39918157 39658085 39428030 39137927 39177812 39337788
39777768 40777848 41607970

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2214

ACUS11 KWNS 130648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130647
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-131215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CST THU DEC 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...WRN/SCENTRAL PA...FAR NRN WV/WRN MARYLAND

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 130647Z - 131215Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP NWD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. HRLY ACCUMULATIONS RATES UP TO 0.05
INCH LIQUID WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 12Z.

LATEST RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF RAIN MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. AT 06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC FREEZING LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR FINDLAY OH SEWD TO NEAR PIT AND INTO FAR WRN MD.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA NOTED BY 1-2 MB/HR PRESSURE FALLS OVER
CENTRAL IND/WRN OH /AIDED BY A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET/ WILL SUPPORT THE
CONTINUED RAPID NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION INTO AREAS THAT
ARE BELOW FREEZING OVER THE NEXT 6 HRS. A FAIRLY DEEP DRY SUB-CLOUD
AIRMASS FROM THE SFC TO NEAR 700 MB WILL INITIALLY LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS/RATES...BUT AS THE STRONGEST WAA OVERSPREADS THE
REGION BETWEEN 09-12Z...SUFFICIENT SATURATION IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
PRECIP RATES. DESPITE THE STRENGTH IN THE WAA...WET BULB EFFECTS
SHOULD AID IN A SLOW SWD MOVEMENT OF THE LOCATION OF THE 06Z SFC
FREEZING LINE. THE DEPTH OF THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL BE GREATEST
OVER MOST OF NRN OH...FAR NRN WV/SWRN PA AND WRN MD WHERE FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE THROUGH 12Z. FURTHER
NW...OVER FAR NERN OH...MOST OF WRN AND SCENTRAL PA A MIX OF SLEET
AND OR MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10-12Z WHERE THE ELEVATED
WARM LAYER WILL BE MORE LIMITED OR NON-EXISTENT.

.CROSBIE.. 12/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

41698085 41528283 41438419 40918480 40648448 40208254
39918157 39658085 39428030 39137927 39177812 39337788
39777768 40777848 41607970

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130547
SWODY2
SPC AC 130546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

NRN STREAM IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD THROUGH THE WRN U.S. AND
CONTRIBUTE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES
AND SRN PLAINS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM HAS TRENDED TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH A RESULTING LACK OF A LOW LEVEL RESPONSE AND
MUCH WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET. GFS AND ECMWF AMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH
MORE THAN THE NAM AND PHASES IT MORE WITH LEAD IMPULSE NOW DROPPING
INTO CA. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION THIS FORECAST
SINCE THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. AT THE SURFACE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF MIGHT APPROACH THE TX/LA COASTS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE A SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE BUILDS SEWD THROUGH
TX.

..ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY
MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER ACROSS TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN IT COULD MOVE
ONTO THE TX/LA COASTS DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD
NEWD ABOVE RETURNING MOIST AXIS AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE. A
FEW ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FROM PARTS OF ERN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN TX
OR THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SURGE SEWD THROUGH
TX AS THE LOW SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT.

..S FL...

TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF OLGA AND A STALLED
FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS S FL.

.DIAL.. 12/13/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130536
SWODY1
SPC AC 130533

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 PM CST WED DEC 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..UPPER OH VALLEY...
COMPLEX UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NATION THIS
EVENING WITH SEVERAL NOTABLE UPPER TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE COUNTRY.
ONE STRONG FEATURE IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO WV/OH/PA
DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW MOIST-
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OF LESS THAN 250
J/KG...SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK. NEVERTHELESS...
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A RISK OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES...MAINLY BEFORE 00Z.

..FL...
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLGA WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE OFFSHORE
AND OVER THE KEYS. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.HART.. 12/13/2007

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