KSGX [072356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 072356
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
455 PM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 SSW CATHEDRAL CITY 33.80N 116.49W
09/07/2013 RIVERSIDE CA DEPT OF HIGHWAY

CHP REPORTED GOLF CLUB DRIVE CLOSED AT THE
WASH DUE TO FLOODING.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KBYZ [072355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 072355
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
555 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND GST 20 NE BIG TIMBER 46.04N 109.66W
09/07/2013 E60 MPH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CJS

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KSGX [072352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 072352 CCA
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
317 PM PDT FRI SEP 6 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0241 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SE BORREGO SPRINGS 33.19N 116.28W
09/06/2013 M64 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

MESONET STATION BORREGO SPRINGS /DW1021/



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSGX [072351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 072351 CCA
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
447 PM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM TSTM WND GST 12 NNW JULIAN 33.22N 116.70W
09/07/2013 M56 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

REPORTED BY MESONET STATION MATAGUAY /MGYSD/



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSGX [072350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 072350
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
449 PM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM TSTM WND GST 16 S PINE VALLEY 32.62N 116.47W
09/07/2013 M55 MPH SAN DIEGO CA ASOS

REPORTED BY ASOS STATION AT CAMPO AIRPORT.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTFX [072349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 072349
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
549 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0352 PM TSTM WND GST MONIDA 44.56N 112.31W
09/07/2013 M48 MPH BEAVERHEAD MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

48 MPH WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR ON MONIDA PASS.


&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KGRB [072348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 072348
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
648 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG GREEN BAY 44.51N 88.00W
09/07/2013 BROWN WI PUBLIC

TREE DOWN. VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

BERSCH

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KSGX [072348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 072348
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
447 PM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 NNW JULIAN 33.22N 116.70W
09/07/2013 M56 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

REPORTED BY MESONET STATION MATAGUAY /MGYSD/



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KSGX [072347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 072347
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
446 PM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 NNW SAN JACINTO 33.85N 117.01W
09/07/2013 RIVERSIDE CA DEPT OF HIGHWAY

CHP REPORTS ROCKS AND MUD DEBRIS GOING
ACROSS LAMBS CANYON NEAR SR79 AND GILMAN
SPRINGS RD.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KTFX [072346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 072346
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
545 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM TSTM WND GST WHITEHALL 45.88N 112.09W
09/07/2013 E45 MPH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH


&&

$$

NJL

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KBYZ [072343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 072343
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
542 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 NE BAKER 46.43N 104.19W
09/07/2013 M1.50 INCH FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH 1.50 INCHES IN ONLY 20 MINUTES.


&&

$$

CJS

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KTFX [072338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 072338
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
538 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL WOLF CREEK 47.00N 112.07W
09/07/2013 M0.50 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [072335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 072335
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
535 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL 2 NNW WINSTON 46.50N 111.68W
09/07/2013 M0.75 INCH BROADWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.


&&

$$

NJL

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KGRB [072332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 072332
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
631 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM HEAVY RAIN GREEN BAY 44.51N 88.00W
09/07/2013 M1.35 INCH BROWN WI NWS EMPLOYEE

RAIN FELL IN 45 TO 60 MINUTES. ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 30
TO 40 MPH WITH GUST FRONT.


&&

$$

MG

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KTFX [072331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 072331
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
531 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL 8 NW WINSTON 46.56N 111.76W
09/07/2013 M0.25 INCH BROADWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.


&&

$$

NJL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1853

ACUS11 KWNS 072323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072322
MTZ000-080115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 072322Z - 080115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
OVER WRN MT...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT ENEWD WITH TIME -- ACCOMPANIED
BY POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION --
INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS -- DEVELOPING INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN MT ATTM. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN AN AREA
WHERE DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS
YIELDED 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- AIDED BY COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS/STEEP LAPSE RATES E OF THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER.

AS A 35 TO 40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION PER MODEL FORECASTS AND AS SUBSTANTIATED BY RECENT TFX /GREAT
FALLS MT/ WSR-88D VWP...THE STRONGEST OF THESE CELLS MAY BECOME
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION. THIS RISK WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...AFTER WHICH DIURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROVES
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE -- PARTICULARLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 09/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 48661318 47981121 47120919 46780824 46040877 45591015
45641215 46221274 47901341 48661318

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KBIS [072322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 072322
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
622 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL BOWMAN 46.18N 103.39W
09/07/2013 M1.00 INCH BOWMAN ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL WAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF BOWMAN. LASTED
JUST A MINUTE OR TWO.


&&

$$

JPM

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KBIS [072319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 072319
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
619 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND GST 8 NNW PRETTY BUTTE 46.48N 104.02W
09/07/2013 M64 MPH SLOPE ND MESONET

CANNONBALL CREEK RAWS MEASURED WIND GUST.


&&

$$

SCHECK

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KGRB [072318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 072318
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
618 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND GST 3 WSW HOWARD 44.54N 88.12W
09/07/2013 E35 MPH BROWN WI NWS EMPLOYEE

0610 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WSW HOWARD 44.54N 88.12W
09/07/2013 M1.14 INCH BROWN WI NWS EMPLOYEE

RAIN FELL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.


&&

$$

MG

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KSLC [072317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 072317
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
517 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 PM DEBRIS FLOW ALPINE 40.46N 111.77W
09/07/2013 UTAH UT COUNTY OFFICIAL

DEBRIS FLOW REPORTED OFF THE QUAIL HOLLOW BURN SCAR.


&&

$$

CRK

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KSGX [072312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 072312
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
411 PM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E MORENO VALLEY 33.94N 117.12W
09/07/2013 RIVERSIDE CA DEPT OF HIGHWAY

CHP REPORTED MUD SLIDE AND FLOODING IN #1 LN
OF HIGHWAY 60.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KFGZ [072306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 072306
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
404 PM MST SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 N GRAND CANYON AIRPOR 36.03N 112.15W
09/07/2013 E1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ PARK SERVICE

FLOODING AND TRAIL DAMAGE BELOW INDIAN GARDENS ON
GARDEN CREEK. ONE FOOT OF MUD AT INTERSECTION AT SOUTH
RIM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1300087

$$

DJO

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KBYZ [072251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 072251
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
451 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM TSTM WND GST 13 NE BAKER 46.50N 104.08W
09/07/2013 M64 MPH FALLON MT MESONET

GUST MEASURED BY CANNONBALL CREEK RAWS


&&

$$

CJS

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KAPX [072248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 072248
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
648 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0647 PM HEAVY RAIN KELDEN 46.21N 84.31W
09/07/2013 M1.06 INCH CHIPPEWA MI SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM


&&

$$

JZ

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KPSR [072241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 072241
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
341 PM MST SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 PM FLASH FLOOD 9 ENE LOST HORSE-KEYS V 33.99N 116.06W
09/07/2013 RIVERSIDE CA PARK SERVICE

CAMPGROUND CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING. SHEEP PASS
CAMPGROUND...JUMBO ROCKS CAMPGROUND. PEOPLE STRANDED ON
ROADS AND IN CAMPGROUNDS DUE TO WATER FLOW OVER ROADWAYS


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1300198

$$

DEWEY

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KGRB [072236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 072236
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0528 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG GREEN BAY 44.51N 88.00W
09/07/2013 BROWN WI AMATEUR RADIO

WIND GUST ESTIMATED IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH RIPPED THE RAIN
GUTTER FROM A HOUSE NEAR I-43 AND MASON STREET.


&&

$$

MG

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KSLC [072230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KSLC 072230
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
430 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM TSTM WND GST PROVO 40.25N 111.64W
09/07/2013 M59.00 MPH UTAH UT AWOS

PROVO AWOS

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG PROVO 40.25N 111.64W
09/07/2013 UTAH UT PUBLIC

ROOF REPORTED TORN OFF AN APARTMENT BUILDING IN PROVO.


&&

$$

CRK

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KGGW [072225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 072225
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
425 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 S DAGMAR 48.50N 104.18W
09/07/2013 M1.57 INCH SHERIDAN MT MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN E FROID 48.33N 104.49W
09/07/2013 M1.09 INCH ROOSEVELT MT MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 NNE THOENY 48.97N 106.84W
09/07/2013 M2.33 INCH VALLEY MT 911 CALL CENTER

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 N OUTLOOK 48.98N 104.75W
09/07/2013 M1.06 INCH SHERIDAN MT MESONET

RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.


&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 515

WWUS20 KWNS 072224
SEL5
SPC WW 072224
MTZ000-NDZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-080500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
420 PM MDT SAT SEP 7 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 420 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75
MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO
2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 140
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BAKER MONTANA TO 90 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ISOLATED STG-SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MT ARE
BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER CLUSTER OF INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
ALONG/AHEAD OF ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ITS AGGREGATE WIND/HAIL THREAT
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ESEWD WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE...ROUGHLY INVOF US-12
ACROSS NWRN SD AND SWRN ND. ADDITIONAL SVR CONVECTION MAY FORM
ALONG OUTFLOW/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY OVER
NERN WY...AND TRAILING FROM MT CLUSTER BACK INTO ROSEBUD COUNTY.
REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851 FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...EDWARDS

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KGRB [072223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 072223
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
523 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG GREEN BAY 44.51N 88.00W
09/07/2013 BROWN WI LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN


&&

$$

BERSCH

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KGGW [072206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 072206
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
406 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW GLASGOW 48.22N 106.67W
09/07/2013 E1.00 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

1020 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 N GLASGOW 48.28N 106.64W
09/07/2013 M1.85 INCH VALLEY MT COCORAHS

1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 S GLENTANA 48.70N 106.25W
09/07/2013 M1.50 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO HOUR TOTAL AND IS STILL RAINING.

1115 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 N RICHLAND 48.91N 106.05W
09/07/2013 M2.00 INCH DANIELS MT PUBLIC

FELL IN TWO HOURS.

1120 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 W FLAXVILLE 48.80N 105.24W
09/07/2013 M2.50 INCH DANIELS MT PUBLIC

FELL IN TWO HOURS. RAIN STILL FALLING.

0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 12 NE RICHLAND 48.94N 105.86W
09/07/2013 M3.65 INCH DANIELS MT PUBLIC

WATER OVER THE ROAD.

0120 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 N RICHLAND 48.97N 106.05W
09/07/2013 M5.50 INCH DANIELS MT PUBLIC

TOTAL SO FAR TODAY

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 N RICHLAND 48.97N 106.05W
09/07/2013 M5.50 INCH DANIELS MT PUBLIC

0250 PM HEAVY RAIN BROCKTON 48.15N 104.92W
09/07/2013 M0.88 INCH ROOSEVELT MT PUBLIC

RAIN IS STILL FALLING.


&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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KBYZ [072205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 072205
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
405 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL 4 WNW WESTMORE 46.49N 104.71W
09/07/2013 E1.50 INCH FALLON MT PUBLIC


&&

$$

VICKIES

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KBIS [072204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 072204
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
504 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY RAIN 15 S RAY 48.13N 103.17W
09/07/2013 M1.50 INCH MCKENZIE ND PUBLIC

RAINFALL TOTAL TODAY THROUGH 5 PM CDT. PUBLIC REPORT
RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.


&&

$$

RPK

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KBYZ [072203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 072203
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
403 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0359 PM HAIL 7 NE BAKER 46.44N 104.17W
09/07/2013 E1.75 INCH FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ACCOMPANIED BY VERY STRONG WINDS OF
UNKNOWN MAGNITUDE. VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 200 YARDS.


&&

$$

CJS

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KBYZ [072156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 072156
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
356 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL 8 N BAKER 46.48N 104.28W
09/07/2013 E1.75 INCH FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BT

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KPSR [072152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 072152
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
251 PM MST SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE LOST HORSE-KEYS VI 33.96N 116.17W
09/07/2013 RIVERSIDE CA PARK SERVICE

FLASH FLOOD WITH WATER FLOWING OVER KEYS VIEW ROAD AND
DEBRIS ON THE ROAD. ROAD WILL BE CLOSED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER PSR1300197

$$

DEWEY

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KVEF [072146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 072146
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
246 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0246 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE YUCCA VALLEY 34.13N 116.40W
09/07/2013 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTERS IN YUCCA VALLEY REPORTED 8 TO 12 INCHES
OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS PAXTON ROAD.


&&

$$

CSTUMPF

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KHGX [072135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 072135
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM WATER SPOUT 1 E JAMAICA BEACH 29.19N 94.96W
09/07/2013 GALVESTON TX PARK SERVICE

A WATERSPOUT WAS SIGHTED IN THE AREA OF GALVESTON STATE
PARK AROUND 353 PM.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300177

$$

PK

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KSGX [072134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 072134
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
233 PM PDT SAT SEP 7 2013

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0156 PM FLASH FLOOD 16 SSE PINE VALLEY 32.63N 116.43W
09/07/2013 SAN DIEGO CA DEPT OF HIGHWAY

CALIFORNIA HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED 5 OR 6
SPOTS OF WATER RUNNING ACROSS HIGHWAY 94
BETWEEN SHOCKEY TRUCK TRAIL AND SHERIDAN
ROADS...WITH A MAXIMUM WATER DEPTH OF 6
INCHES.



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1852

ACUS11 KWNS 072102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072101
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-072300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...IA...WI...IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072101Z - 072300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM
EXTREME SRN WI AND ERN IA TO NRN IL. CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS WILL INCREASE OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
EDGE OF PLAINS CAPPING INVERSION FROM ERN IA ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN
IL. THE AREA IS BISECTED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERN IA TO SRN
WI. MEANWHILE A MODERATE COLD FRONT WAS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
CNTRL WI AND A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS
SITUATED FROM THE SOUTH SHORE OF LM NWD TO SERN WI. LARGE SCALE LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK BUT
A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM IA
ATTM.

ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OF HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE
CAPPING INVERSION AND SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 30-35KT WILL BE ADEQUATE TO
CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR LARGE HAIL. IF
STORM COVERAGE INCREASES INTO THE EVENING...COLD POOL EVOLUTION AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT MOVING INTO SRN WI...IN
ADDITION TO MODEST STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW...COULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITH
SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS TOO
GREAT FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 40598910 40709072 41339094 42459145 43179116 43049011
42818887 41998801 40738800 40598910

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KMQT [072052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 072052
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
452 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 2 W MENOMINEE 45.12N 87.66W
09/07/2013 M0.50 INCH MENOMINEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KLUBER

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KVEF [072043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KVEF 072043
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
143 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNW SUMMERLIN 36.26N 115.33W
09/06/2013 CLARK NV PUBLIC

ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF MUDDY WATER ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL
ROCKS WERE ACROSS THE 215 BELTWAY AT ANN ROAD. REPORT VIA
FACEBOOK.

0320 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NW SUMMERLIN 36.24N 115.33W
09/06/2013 CLARK NV PUBLIC

SEVERAL INCHES OF MUDDY WATER...ROCKS AND DEBRIS WERE
COVERING PORTIONS OF CLIFF SHADOWS PARKWAY BETWEEN LONE
MOUNTAIN AND ALEXANDER. REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.

0333 PM HAIL 5 SW TWENTYNINE PALMS ( 34.24N 116.20W
09/06/2013 E0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0340 PM FLASH FLOOD SSW TWENTYNINE PALMS 34.14N 116.07W
09/06/2013 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS 3-6 INCHES OF WATER...MUD...AND DEBRIS
ALONG SR 62 NEAR UTAH TRAILS.

0446 PM FLASH FLOOD SW TWENTYNINE PALMS 34.13N 116.07W
09/06/2013 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTS 6-8 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF HWY 62 AND MESQUITE SPRINGS ROAD.


&&
THIS IS A SUMMARY OF REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
$$

CTS/RW

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KVEF [072036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 072036
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
136 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM HAIL 2 W YUCCA VALLEY 34.12N 116.46W
09/07/2013 M0.25 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN YUCCA VALLEY CA REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

CSTUMPF

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1851

ACUS11 KWNS 072024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072024
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...MT...SD...ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072024Z - 072230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST
MT ACROSS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SW ND AND NW SD. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE
IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL SEGMENT THAT STRETCHES FROM CNTRL SD NWWD TO ERN
MT. STRONG HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AID IN THE EROSION OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WHILE LARGE SCALE CONTRIBUTION TO ASCENT IS SUBTLE...LOW
LEVEL FEATURES IN ADDITION TO THE STALLED FRONTAL SEGMENT INCLUDE
RAIN-COOLED/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN MT
ACROSS WRN ND...AS WELL AS A WEAK LEE/THERMAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS SERN MT. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/LIFT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF
THESE ANALYZED MESOSCALE FEATURES MAY BE AIDING MORE ROBUST TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NRN CUSTER COUNTY ATTM.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS A
MID-LEVEL SWLY WIND MAX OF 30-35KT CRESTS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM
NRN WY TO ERN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RESULTING DEEP-LAYER SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NOMINALLY SUPPORT UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION. A NARROW NW-SE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SITUATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE. ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT CAN INTERACT WITH THIS
BOUNDARY MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY AT DEVELOPING STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
MESOCYCLONES. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE FORM OF HAIL AND WIND
MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL
MCS EVOLVING IF STORM COVERAGE BECOMES GREAT ENOUGH.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/07/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 44510305 44850421 45380660 45770733 46820731 47350594
46500290 46060220 45250202 44510305

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KSGX [072017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 072017
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
117 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1222 PM FLOOD 1 E FOREST FALLS 34.09N 116.90W
09/07/2013 SAN BERNARDINO CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MILL CREEK IS RUNNING 2 FEET DEEP AND 50 FEET WIDE.
CAMPERS ARE STRANDED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF MILL CREEK.


&&

$$

JTHOMAS

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KMLB [072009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 072009
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
409 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM TSTM WND GST ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPO 28.55N 81.34W
09/07/2013 M43 MPH ORANGE FL ASOS

THE ORLANDO EXECUTIVE AIRPORT ASOS...KORL...MEASURED A
37-KNOT/43-MPH WIND GUST OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT
334PM LOCAL.


&&

$$

ULRICH

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KGGW [071951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 071951
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
151 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 E CULBERTSON 48.15N 104.38W
09/07/2013 M2.10 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL ALONG HIGHWAY 2.


&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071944
SWODY1
SPC AC 071941

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FAR ERN IA AND
NRN/CNTRL IL...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS D1 OUTLOOK.

..GARNER.. 09/07/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH AN
AMPLIFYING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE NERN U.S.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND SRN CANADA ROCKIES. MORNING WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A COUPLE LOW-AMPLITUDE
PERTURBATIONS WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. ONE OF WHICH WILL TRACK FROM NRN UT INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING...WHILE ANOTHER PROGRESSES SEWD FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS SHOWED THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN U.P. OF MI WSWWD THROUGH CNTRL
MN...NRN SD...INTO CNTRL MT. THE ERN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
AMPLIFYING ERN CANADA/NERN U.S. TROUGH. MEANWHILE...THE WRN SEGMENT
OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS ARE LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT
ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WHERE THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A SEASONALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /I.E.
PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.50 INCHES/ ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR MOST-UNSTABLE-LIFTED PARCELS. INCREASED
FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN A SUBSET OF ONGOING TSTMS INTO
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT
AS WELL AS ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN.

THE COLOCATION OF A MOIST...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /I.E.
MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE
WITH 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO. COALESCING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM THIS EVENING MAY PROMOTE
UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO ONE OR MORE TSTM COMPLEXES WITH THE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT PERSISTING THROUGH LATE EVENING OVER
THE WRN DAKOTAS.

...MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A WARM EML /I.E.
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG CAP TO SURFACE-BASED
PARCELS/ FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES SOURCE REGION ENEWD THROUGH THE MID
MO VALLEY. THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR SURFACE-BASED AFTERNOON
STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER ERN IA INTO NRN/CNTRL IL ALONG THE
ERN FRINGE OF THIS EML WHERE LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO THE SEWD-MOVING PERTURBATION WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE CAP.

WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
/30-35 KT/...THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE OF
1500-2500+ J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WITH
THESE STORMS.

...LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...

MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THIS
COUPLED WITH THE INFLUX OF A WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS FROM THE
WEST SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT
LATER TODAY. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A
RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

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KGGW [071928]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 071928
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
128 PM MDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0123 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 E CULBERTSON 48.15N 104.38W
09/07/2013 M1.50 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN IS STILL FALLING.


&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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KHGX [071924]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 071924
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
223 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM LIGHTNING 4 SE KINGWOOD 30.01N 95.14W
09/07/2013 HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

A LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE 5000 BLOCK OF ATASCOCITA ROAD
STRUCK A GAS TANKER CAUSING IT TO FALL OVER AND SPILL
GAS OVER THE ROAD. SHELTER IN PLACE ISSUED.


&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1300176

$$

PK

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