NWUS56 KHNX 290115
LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
615 PM PDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM HAIL 20 NW YOSEMITE VALLEY 37.94N 119.86W
03/28/2013 U0.25 INCH TUOLUMNE CA PARK/FOREST SRVC
NEAR BADGER ROAD IN YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK.
&&
$$
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Thursday, March 28, 2013
DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 290021
SWODY1
SPC AC 290019
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OZARK PLATEAU...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL FORM LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A PLUME
OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS FROM CNTRL OK SWD THROUGH MUCH OF
CNTRL/ERN TX...BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML SAMPLED IN 00Z OUN/FWD
RAOBS. MODEST WAA DRIVEN BY A 25-30 KT LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 700 MB NW/SE-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOCATED NE OF THE MOIST AXIS...YIELDING NOCTURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
A COMBINATION OF MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS MAY BEAR SMALL HAIL ALONG THE WRN
PORTION OF WHERE TSTMS FORM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EML.
...PARTS OF ORE/ID/NV/CA...
VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
..GRAMS.. 03/29/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 290019
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 290100Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OZARK PLATEAU...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL FORM LATER THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. A PLUME
OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS EXISTS FROM CNTRL OK SWD THROUGH MUCH OF
CNTRL/ERN TX...BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML SAMPLED IN 00Z OUN/FWD
RAOBS. MODEST WAA DRIVEN BY A 25-30 KT LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN
ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 700 MB NW/SE-ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE
LOCATED NE OF THE MOIST AXIS...YIELDING NOCTURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
A COMBINATION OF MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A WEAKLY BUOYANT AIR MASS MAY BEAR SMALL HAIL ALONG THE WRN
PORTION OF WHERE TSTMS FORM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EML.
...PARTS OF ORE/ID/NV/CA...
VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
..GRAMS.. 03/29/2013
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KHNX [282218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KHNX 282218
LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
318 PM PDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL BASS LAKE 37.32N 119.56W
03/27/2013 U0.25 INCH MADERA CA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
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LSRHNX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
318 PM PDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0510 PM HAIL BASS LAKE 37.32N 119.56W
03/27/2013 U0.25 INCH MADERA CA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 281947
SWODY1
SPC AC 281945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE OUTLOOK LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LINES.
..BROYLES.. 03/28/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013/
...SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAKLY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SFC TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY/SELY
SFC FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHERE THE INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE W/NW OF A N-CNTRL/NERN GULF RIDGE
AND TO THE E OF A MODESTLY SHARPENING DRYLINE. A DIFFUSE FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TX NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS...AND WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
INTERSECT THE FRONT AT A TRIPLE POINT OVER THE TX S PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF THE DRYLINE --
NEAR AND S/SSW OF THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. THIS
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF
A STEEP -- NEAR DRY ADIABATIC -- LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL ASCENT...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP MOISTURE...LIMITED BUOYANCY...AND ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.
A RELATIVE SPATIAL MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK...WHERE EVEN
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AMIDST AN ONLY WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SFC FRONT.
FARTHER NE INTO NERN OK...NWRN/N-CNTRL AR...CNTRL/SWRN MO...AND ERN
KS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM SUPPORTS
INCREASING ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AT THE TERMINUS OF A 25-35-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM...OVER THE ERN
EDGE OF A STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ACCOMPANYING AN EML
OVERSPREADING THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ELEVATED RETURN MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB --
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS -- DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION.
...PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE NRN FRINGES OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AMIDST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN ASCENT. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING AS STABILITY INCREASES OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 281945
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 282000Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
THE OUTLOOK LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS ISSUANCE AND NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LINES.
..BROYLES.. 03/28/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013/
...SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAKLY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SFC TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY/SELY
SFC FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHERE THE INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE W/NW OF A N-CNTRL/NERN GULF RIDGE
AND TO THE E OF A MODESTLY SHARPENING DRYLINE. A DIFFUSE FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TX NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS...AND WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
INTERSECT THE FRONT AT A TRIPLE POINT OVER THE TX S PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF THE DRYLINE --
NEAR AND S/SSW OF THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. THIS
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF
A STEEP -- NEAR DRY ADIABATIC -- LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL ASCENT...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP MOISTURE...LIMITED BUOYANCY...AND ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.
A RELATIVE SPATIAL MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK...WHERE EVEN
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AMIDST AN ONLY WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SFC FRONT.
FARTHER NE INTO NERN OK...NWRN/N-CNTRL AR...CNTRL/SWRN MO...AND ERN
KS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM SUPPORTS
INCREASING ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AT THE TERMINUS OF A 25-35-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM...OVER THE ERN
EDGE OF A STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ACCOMPANYING AN EML
OVERSPREADING THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ELEVATED RETURN MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB --
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS -- DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION.
...PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE NRN FRINGES OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AMIDST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN ASCENT. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING AS STABILITY INCREASES OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 281730
SWODY2
SPC AC 281729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX ON FRIDAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS NW OK AND SE KS. IN SPITE OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS. DUE TO THIS FACTOR...SFC
HEATING SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION CONFINED TO WEST
TX AND WRN OK WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE VERY STEEP. AS A
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SUGGEST
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE FROM WEST TX NNEWD ACROSS WRN OK
INTO SRN KS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SHOULD KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIMITED...HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ISOLATED. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TX WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP
THE MOST INSTABILITY AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS AT 00Z/SAT SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1500 J/KG ACCENTUATED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINED WITH 700 TO 500 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ROTATION.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...THE
MESOSCALE SETUP REMAINS TOO UNCLEAR TO FORECAST WHERE THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES LOW ATTM. A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR
EAST AS THE MTNS OF ERN OK WHERE MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS WRN KS AND FAR SE CO...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING
AROUND 1000 J/KG LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AS CELLS MATURE AND
MOVE OUT INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...THE RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE BUT A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 03/28/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 281729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD WWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW
BECOMES MORE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TX ON FRIDAY AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS NW OK AND SE KS. IN SPITE OF SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS FRIDAY...SFC DEWPOINTS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 50S F ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS. DUE TO THIS FACTOR...SFC
HEATING SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION CONFINED TO WEST
TX AND WRN OK WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE VERY STEEP. AS A
CAPPING INVERSION WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE MODELS SUGGEST
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE FROM WEST TX NNEWD ACROSS WRN OK
INTO SRN KS. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST SHOULD KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LIMITED...HELPING TO KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
ISOLATED. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD BE
ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TX WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP
THE MOST INSTABILITY AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS AT 00Z/SAT SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING NEAR 1500 J/KG ACCENTUATED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KT ASSOCIATED
WITH SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
COMBINED WITH 700 TO 500 LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM COULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HAIL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP ROTATION.
ALTHOUGH...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...THE
MESOSCALE SETUP REMAINS TOO UNCLEAR TO FORECAST WHERE THE GREATEST
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES LOW ATTM. A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND AS FAR
EAST AS THE MTNS OF ERN OK WHERE MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHOW ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS WRN KS AND FAR SE CO...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES PEAKING
AROUND 1000 J/KG LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL AS CELLS MATURE AND
MOVE OUT INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. AGAIN...THE RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE BUT A FEW
OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL.
..BROYLES.. 03/28/2013
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KPBZ [281621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281621
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 AM SNOW 1 WNW GREENSBURG 40.31N 79.55W
03/28/2013 M0.1 INCH WESTMORELAND PA COCORAHS
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
0700 AM SNOW CREEKSIDE 40.68N 79.19W
03/28/2013 M0.3 INCH INDIANA PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 2 NW DONEGAL 40.13N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 3 SE INDIANA 40.60N 79.12W
03/28/2013 M0.1 INCH INDIANA PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW NE MCMURRAY 40.28N 80.09W
03/28/2013 M0.2 INCH WASHINGTON PA COCORAHS
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
0700 AM SNOW 2 NW MC HENRY 39.58N 79.37W
03/28/2013 M3.7 INCH GARRETT MD CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 1 E COOPERSTOWN 41.50N 79.85W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH VENANGO PA COCORAHS
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301776
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301777
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301778
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301779
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301780
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301781
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301782
$$
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1221 PM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0650 AM SNOW 1 WNW GREENSBURG 40.31N 79.55W
03/28/2013 M0.1 INCH WESTMORELAND PA COCORAHS
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
0700 AM SNOW CREEKSIDE 40.68N 79.19W
03/28/2013 M0.3 INCH INDIANA PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 2 NW DONEGAL 40.13N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 3 SE INDIANA 40.60N 79.12W
03/28/2013 M0.1 INCH INDIANA PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW NE MCMURRAY 40.28N 80.09W
03/28/2013 M0.2 INCH WASHINGTON PA COCORAHS
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
0700 AM SNOW 2 NW MC HENRY 39.58N 79.37W
03/28/2013 M3.7 INCH GARRETT MD CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 1 E COOPERSTOWN 41.50N 79.85W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH VENANGO PA COCORAHS
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301776
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301777
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301778
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301779
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301780
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301781
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301782
$$
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 281620
SWODY1
SPC AC 281618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAKLY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SFC TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY/SELY
SFC FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHERE THE INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE W/NW OF A N-CNTRL/NERN GULF RIDGE
AND TO THE E OF A MODESTLY SHARPENING DRYLINE. A DIFFUSE FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TX NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS...AND WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
INTERSECT THE FRONT AT A TRIPLE POINT OVER THE TX S PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF THE DRYLINE --
NEAR AND S/SSW OF THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. THIS
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF
A STEEP -- NEAR DRY ADIABATIC -- LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL ASCENT...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP MOISTURE...LIMITED BUOYANCY...AND ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.
A RELATIVE SPATIAL MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK...WHERE EVEN
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AMIDST AN ONLY WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SFC FRONT.
FARTHER NE INTO NERN OK...NWRN/N-CNTRL AR...CNTRL/SWRN MO...AND ERN
KS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM SUPPORTS
INCREASING ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AT THE TERMINUS OF A 25-35-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM...OVER THE ERN
EDGE OF A STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ACCOMPANYING AN EML
OVERSPREADING THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ELEVATED RETURN MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB --
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS -- DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION.
...PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE NRN FRINGES OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AMIDST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN ASCENT. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING AS STABILITY INCREASES OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
..COHEN/HART.. 03/28/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 281618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 281630Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS QUASI-ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAKLY
AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A SFC TROUGH WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY/SELY
SFC FLOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHERE THE INFLUX OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO THE W/NW OF A N-CNTRL/NERN GULF RIDGE
AND TO THE E OF A MODESTLY SHARPENING DRYLINE. A DIFFUSE FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NW TX NEWD INTO THE MO OZARKS...AND WILL
MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
INTERSECT THE FRONT AT A TRIPLE POINT OVER THE TX S PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED INVOF THE DRYLINE --
NEAR AND S/SSW OF THE TRIPLE POINT TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SW TX. THIS
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE ERN FRINGES OF
A STEEP -- NEAR DRY ADIABATIC -- LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL ASCENT...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP MOISTURE...LIMITED BUOYANCY...AND ONLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT.
A RELATIVE SPATIAL MINIMUM IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK...WHERE EVEN
WEAKER LOW-LEVEL ASCENT WILL BE PRESENT AMIDST AN ONLY WEAKLY
CONVERGENT SFC FRONT.
FARTHER NE INTO NERN OK...NWRN/N-CNTRL AR...CNTRL/SWRN MO...AND ERN
KS...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL NOT INCREASE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...WHEN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM SUPPORTS
INCREASING ELEVATED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AT THE TERMINUS OF A 25-35-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM...OVER THE ERN
EDGE OF A STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME ACCOMPANYING AN EML
OVERSPREADING THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. ELEVATED RETURN MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ROOTED AROUND 850 MB --
POTENTIALLY ORGANIZING INTO ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS -- DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT
OF THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR CONVECTION.
...PARTS OF THE NRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...
ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AS MINOR MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE THROUGH THE NRN FRINGES OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE AMIDST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN ASCENT. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING AS STABILITY INCREASES OWING TO BOUNDARY-LAYER NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
..COHEN/HART.. 03/28/2013
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KPBZ [281420]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281420
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1019 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 2 NW DONEGAL 40.13N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA MESONET
REPORTED AT COOP STATION ACEP1 SNOW DURATION
24 HOURS
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1019 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 2 NW DONEGAL 40.13N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA MESONET
REPORTED AT COOP STATION ACEP1 SNOW DURATION
24 HOURS
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KPBZ [281419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281419
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1019 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM SNOW CANAAN VALLEY #2 39.06N 79.44W
03/28/2013 M5.3 INCH TUCKER WV CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301775
$$
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1019 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM SNOW CANAAN VALLEY #2 39.06N 79.44W
03/28/2013 M5.3 INCH TUCKER WV CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301775
$$
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KCLE [281415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KCLE 281415
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW MEADVILLE 5W 41.65N 80.22W
03/28/2013 M2.3 INCH CRAWFORD PA SNOW SPOTTER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301025
$$
JAM
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LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW MEADVILLE 5W 41.65N 80.22W
03/28/2013 M2.3 INCH CRAWFORD PA SNOW SPOTTER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301025
$$
JAM
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KCLE [281414]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KCLE 281414
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM SNOW CORRY 41.90N 79.65W
03/28/2013 M4.0 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301024
$$
JAM
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LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1013 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM SNOW CORRY 41.90N 79.65W
03/28/2013 M4.0 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301024
$$
JAM
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KCLE [281412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KCLE 281412
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1012 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW FRANKLIN CTR 41.92N 80.24W
03/28/2013 M3.9 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301023
$$
JAM
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LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1012 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW FRANKLIN CTR 41.92N 80.24W
03/28/2013 M3.9 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301023
$$
JAM
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KPBZ [281338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281338
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0938 AM SNOW OAKLAND 39.41N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M3.0 INCH GARRETT MD PUBLIC
SINCE MIDNIGHT
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301774
$$
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
938 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0938 AM SNOW OAKLAND 39.41N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M3.0 INCH GARRETT MD PUBLIC
SINCE MIDNIGHT
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301774
$$
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KCLE [281249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KCLE 281249
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW AMITY TWP 41.95N 79.78W
03/28/2013 M4.0 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301022
$$
JAM
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LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
849 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW AMITY TWP 41.95N 79.78W
03/28/2013 M4.0 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301022
$$
JAM
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 281243
SWODY1
SPC AC 281241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT ERN PAC TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT CA
2-3 DAYS FROM NOW. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE EMBEDDED WAVES WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WRN US RIDGE THROUGH TOMORROW. POCKETS OF
MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO ERN ORE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION GIVEN THE BACKGROUND PATTERN OF
HEIGHT RISES AND VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST. ONE APPARENT WEAK WAVE OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE OVER NW TX AND OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT INVOF A STALLED FRONT FROM THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NW OK INTO SE KS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE S/SE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE MORE
PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FORM TONIGHT
FROM NRN OK INTO SE KS AND SW MO...IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE
NOSE OF A 25-30 KT SLY/SWLY LLJ.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 281241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MINOR HEIGHT RISES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE NEXT ERN PAC TROUGH WHICH WILL AFFECT CA
2-3 DAYS FROM NOW. SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE EMBEDDED WAVES WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WRN US RIDGE THROUGH TOMORROW. POCKETS OF
MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO ERN ORE...BUT THERE WILL BE LITTLE
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION GIVEN THE BACKGROUND PATTERN OF
HEIGHT RISES AND VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE INSTABILITY.
MEANWHILE...NWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SE
ATLANTIC COAST. ONE APPARENT WEAK WAVE OVER NM THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE OVER NW TX AND OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT INVOF A STALLED FRONT FROM THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS ACROSS NW OK INTO SE KS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM
THE S/SE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. THE MORE
PROBABLE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION TO FORM TONIGHT
FROM NRN OK INTO SE KS AND SW MO...IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ON THE
NOSE OF A 25-30 KT SLY/SWLY LLJ.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/28/2013
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KCLE [281224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS51 KCLE 281224
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
823 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW NORTHEAST 6SW 42.13N 79.89W
03/28/2013 M4.5 INCH CRAWFORD OH SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301021
$$
JAM
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LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
823 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW NORTHEAST 6SW 42.13N 79.89W
03/28/2013 M4.5 INCH CRAWFORD OH SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301021
$$
JAM
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KCLE [281219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KCLE 281219
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
819 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW NEW WASHINGTON 5S 40.90N 82.82W
03/28/2013 M4.5 INCH CRAWFORD OH SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301021
$$
JAM
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LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
819 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW NEW WASHINGTON 5S 40.90N 82.82W
03/28/2013 M4.5 INCH CRAWFORD OH SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301021
$$
JAM
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KCLE [281218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KCLE 281218
LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
818 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW MILLCREEK TWP 42.06N 80.12W
03/28/2013 M2.1 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301020
$$
JAM
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LSRCLE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
818 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW MILLCREEK TWP 42.06N 80.12W
03/28/2013 M2.1 INCH ERIE PA SNOW SPOTTER
12 HOUR SNOWFALL.
&&
EVENT NUMBER CLE1301020
$$
JAM
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KPBZ [281131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281131
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
731 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 1 N TERRA ALTA 39.45N 79.55W
03/28/2013 M3.5 INCH PRESTON WV CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW ROWLESBURG 39.34N 79.67W
03/28/2013 M1.2 INCH PRESTON WV CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 2 ENE CHALKHILL 39.85N 79.59W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH FAYETTE PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301771
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301772
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301773
$$
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
731 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 1 N TERRA ALTA 39.45N 79.55W
03/28/2013 M3.5 INCH PRESTON WV CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW ROWLESBURG 39.34N 79.67W
03/28/2013 M1.2 INCH PRESTON WV CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
0700 AM SNOW 2 ENE CHALKHILL 39.85N 79.59W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH FAYETTE PA CO-OP OBSERVER
24 HOUR SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301771
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301772
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301773
$$
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KPBZ [281102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281102
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
701 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 4 WSW MC HENRY 39.52N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M1.5 INCH GARRETT MD MESONET
REPORTED AT COOP STATION OKLM2 SNOW DURATION
24 HOURS
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
701 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 4 WSW MC HENRY 39.52N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M1.5 INCH GARRETT MD MESONET
REPORTED AT COOP STATION OKLM2 SNOW DURATION
24 HOURS
&&
$$
IRIS SYSTEM
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KPBZ [281101]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281101
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
701 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0659 AM SNOW REDHOUSE 39.31N 79.45W
03/28/2013 M6.0 INCH GARRETT MD TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301770
$$
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
701 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0659 AM SNOW REDHOUSE 39.31N 79.45W
03/28/2013 M6.0 INCH GARRETT MD TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR SNOW TOTAL
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301770
$$
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KPBZ [281046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KPBZ 281046
LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0628 AM SNOW 4 E CHAMPION 40.08N 79.28W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER
0633 AM SNOW 1 N WHITNEY 40.25N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M0.3 INCH WESTMORELAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER
0634 AM SNOW 6 E STAHLSTOWN 40.15N 79.22W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA PUBLIC
0639 AM SNOW 2 S MCHENRY 39.53N 79.35W
03/28/2013 M2.0 INCH GARRETT MD PUBLIC
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301766
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301767
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301768
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301769
$$
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LSRPBZ
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
646 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0628 AM SNOW 4 E CHAMPION 40.08N 79.28W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER
0633 AM SNOW 1 N WHITNEY 40.25N 79.41W
03/28/2013 M0.3 INCH WESTMORELAND PA TRAINED SPOTTER
0634 AM SNOW 6 E STAHLSTOWN 40.15N 79.22W
03/28/2013 M1.0 INCH WESTMORELAND PA PUBLIC
0639 AM SNOW 2 S MCHENRY 39.53N 79.35W
03/28/2013 M2.0 INCH GARRETT MD PUBLIC
&&
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301766
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301767
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301768
EVENT NUMBER PBZ1301769
$$
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 280859
SWOD48
SPC AC 280859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PROMINENT
FEATURE INTO MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5 SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC EVOLVES AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH. THE
ECMWF AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR THIS
FEATURE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES AS IT ENTERS
THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN U.S.
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY SRN PLAINS.
DAY 4 /SUNDAY/...SWRN EXTENSION OF FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER FRONT ADVANCES SWD THROUGH THE NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF OK AND NRN TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE TX WARM SECTOR AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN 30% OR GREATER
COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO DELINEATE AN AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
DAY 5 /MONDAY/...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF TX AND SERN STATES. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
30% OR GREATER COVERAGE AREA IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DAY 6-8...MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE WITH UPPER
PATTERN...BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT FL.
..DIAL.. 03/28/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 280859
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 311200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PROMINENT
FEATURE INTO MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5 SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE REGARDING HOW THE UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC EVOLVES AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH ERN U.S. TROUGH. THE
ECMWF AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS RAPIDLY DEAMPLIFY AND SHEAR THIS
FEATURE EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL ROCKIES AS IT ENTERS
THE CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE ERN U.S.
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAINTAIN A
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND
EVENTUALLY SRN PLAINS.
DAY 4 /SUNDAY/...SWRN EXTENSION OF FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER FRONT ADVANCES SWD THROUGH THE NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHERE STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS
OF OK AND NRN TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP SWD THROUGH THE TX WARM SECTOR AND INTO A PORTION OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NWLY FLOW ALOFT. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. CONFIDENCE IN 30% OR GREATER
COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO DELINEATE AN AREA.
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MAY NEED TO BE
INCLUDED IN SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
DAY 5 /MONDAY/...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SWD THROUGH REMAINDER OF TX AND SERN STATES. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN A
30% OR GREATER COVERAGE AREA IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DAY 6-8...MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE WITH UPPER
PATTERN...BUT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
OVER ALL AREAS EXCEPT FL.
..DIAL.. 03/28/2013
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 280732
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF NWRN TX...WRN
OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER JET STREAK DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS. THIS PROCESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD
ACCELERATION OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN SWWD THROUGH
WY EARLY SATURDAY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AS SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THIS
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE.
...CNTRL KS THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX REGIONS...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN A BROAD
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER-MID VALLEY REGIONS AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY...LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO
THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND OK INTO WRN/CNTRL KS...LIKELY BOOSTING
MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT FROM KS SWWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX. THE ACTIVITY WILL
THEN SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING. FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH
OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM
TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
..DIAL.. 03/28/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 280730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF NWRN TX...WRN
OK INTO SWRN AND CNTRL KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER JET STREAK DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
AND MID MS VALLEY REGIONS. THIS PROCESS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SEWD
ACCELERATION OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM MN SWWD THROUGH
WY EARLY SATURDAY...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NEWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS AS SWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN THIS
REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING CYCLONE.
...CNTRL KS THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX REGIONS...
CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN A BROAD
ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER-MID VALLEY REGIONS AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE
OF MORNING ACTIVITY...LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO
THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND OK INTO WRN/CNTRL KS...LIKELY BOOSTING
MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT FROM KS SWWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS
MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX. THE ACTIVITY WILL
THEN SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING. FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH
OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM
TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION. ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
..DIAL.. 03/28/2013
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 280553
SWODY2
SPC AC 280552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE MEAN A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES AND GREAT BASIN AREA. AT
THE SFC A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER AT THE START OF
PERIOD SHOULD MIX THROUGH A PORTION OF WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH OK EARLY
FRIDAY.
...SRN PLAINS AREA...
NELY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE ERN GULF EMANATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF
CP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE ERN STATES WILL SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER RECOVERY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. NEVERTHELESS...AXIS
OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS ALREADY EXISTS OVER THE WRN GULF AND S TX.
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TX AND OK WARM SECTOR. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY ADVECTED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RESERVOIR OF 1000-1500
J/KG MUCAPE EARLY FRIDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO OK. BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN TX AHEAD OF DRYLINE
AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES WITH AN AXIS OF 800-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB AT THE BASE OF
THE EML.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OK EWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND
MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL OVER OK/SRN KS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING WHERE THE
CAP SHOULD WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF OR JUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN MOIST WARM SECTOR INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT
THROUGH WRN TX. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE MAY
EXIST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX WHERE DEEPER
ASCENT ATTENDING WITH AN EWD ADVANCING IMPULSE MAY OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE...BUT AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
PARTS OF WRN TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 03/28/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 280552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE MEAN A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES AND GREAT BASIN AREA. AT
THE SFC A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER AT THE START OF
PERIOD SHOULD MIX THROUGH A PORTION OF WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH OK EARLY
FRIDAY.
...SRN PLAINS AREA...
NELY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE ERN GULF EMANATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF
CP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE ERN STATES WILL SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER RECOVERY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. NEVERTHELESS...AXIS
OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS ALREADY EXISTS OVER THE WRN GULF AND S TX.
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TX AND OK WARM SECTOR. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY ADVECTED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RESERVOIR OF 1000-1500
J/KG MUCAPE EARLY FRIDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO OK. BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN TX AHEAD OF DRYLINE
AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES WITH AN AXIS OF 800-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB AT THE BASE OF
THE EML.
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OK EWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND
MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL OVER OK/SRN KS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING WHERE THE
CAP SHOULD WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF OR JUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN MOIST WARM SECTOR INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT
THROUGH WRN TX. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE MAY
EXIST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX WHERE DEEPER
ASCENT ATTENDING WITH AN EWD ADVANCING IMPULSE MAY OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE...BUT AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
PARTS OF WRN TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 03/28/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 280441
SWODY1
SPC AC 280439
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL
EJECT NEWD FROM A PARENT OFFSHORE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE PARTS OF THE PAC NW AND WRN GREAT BASIN. A MODEST NWD
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM TX NWD INTO THE LOWER-MO
VALLEY AS A LEE SFC TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MO VALLEY...
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVER THE TX S PLAINS SWD TOWARDS THE
DAVIS MTNS WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING
ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 200-500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW
HIGH-BASED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP INVOF A LEE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WHERE
CINH IS MINIMIZED. TSTMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
AFTER 28/00Z FROM PARTS OF OK NEWD INTO CNTRL MO WITHIN A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME...AS AN UPPER IMPULSE PASSES THROUGH THE MID-MO
AND UPPER-MS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
INTRODUCTION OF SVR PROBABILITIES.
...NERN ORE AND W-CNTRL ID...
AN UPPER IMPULSE /POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 500 W SFO AS OF 28/04Z
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL TRANSLATE NEWD AND REACH NERN ORE
DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..ROGERS/GRAMS.. 03/28/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 280439
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2013
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE WRN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC MOVES OFFSHORE. A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL
EJECT NEWD FROM A PARENT OFFSHORE UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE PARTS OF THE PAC NW AND WRN GREAT BASIN. A MODEST NWD
RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE WILL OCCUR FROM TX NWD INTO THE LOWER-MO
VALLEY AS A LEE SFC TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS.
...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER-MO VALLEY...
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING OVER THE TX S PLAINS SWD TOWARDS THE
DAVIS MTNS WILL OCCUR BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING
ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 200-500 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING. A FEW
HIGH-BASED TSTMS COULD DEVELOP INVOF A LEE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE WHERE
CINH IS MINIMIZED. TSTMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF
DIURNAL COOLING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
A SEPARATE AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR PRIMARILY
AFTER 28/00Z FROM PARTS OF OK NEWD INTO CNTRL MO WITHIN A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME...AS AN UPPER IMPULSE PASSES THROUGH THE MID-MO
AND UPPER-MS VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
INTRODUCTION OF SVR PROBABILITIES.
...NERN ORE AND W-CNTRL ID...
AN UPPER IMPULSE /POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 500 W SFO AS OF 28/04Z
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL TRANSLATE NEWD AND REACH NERN ORE
DURING PEAK HEATING. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COULD SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
..ROGERS/GRAMS.. 03/28/2013
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