DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 280553
SWODY2
SPC AC 280552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. IN THE MEAN A
LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE U.S.
WITH AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE SWRN STATES AND GREAT BASIN AREA. AT
THE SFC A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER AT THE START OF
PERIOD SHOULD MIX THROUGH A PORTION OF WRN TX. A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH OK EARLY
FRIDAY.

...SRN PLAINS AREA...

NELY TRAJECTORIES OVER THE ERN GULF EMANATING FROM A LARGE AREA OF
CP HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE ERN STATES WILL SLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER RECOVERY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. NEVERTHELESS...AXIS
OF LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS ALREADY EXISTS OVER THE WRN GULF AND S TX.
LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN THIS MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE TX AND OK WARM SECTOR. MEANWHILE...PLUME OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS ALREADY ADVECTED INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY. THESE PROCESSES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RESERVOIR OF 1000-1500
J/KG MUCAPE EARLY FRIDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WRN TX INTO OK. BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN TX AHEAD OF DRYLINE
AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES WITH AN AXIS OF 800-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
POSSIBLE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATE A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB AT THE BASE OF
THE EML.

STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OK EWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT AND
MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL OVER OK/SRN KS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING INTO A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON.

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING WHERE THE
CAP SHOULD WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF OR JUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE.
STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN MOIST WARM SECTOR INCREASES
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT
THROUGH WRN TX. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE MAY
EXIST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX WHERE DEEPER
ASCENT ATTENDING WITH AN EWD ADVANCING IMPULSE MAY OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE...BUT AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN
PARTS OF WRN TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..DIAL.. 03/28/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.