KMEG [130218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KMEG 130218
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM HAIL HELENA 34.53N 90.60W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS AR EMERGENCY MNGR

COVERED GROUND TO A DEPTH OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. RELAYED TO
WFO MEMPHIS VIA WFO LITTLE ROCK.

0110 PM HAIL HELENA 34.53N 90.60W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS AR PUBLIC

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW QUARTERS. HAIL LASTED
FOR 30 MINUTES.

0130 PM HAIL 25 NNE CLARKSDALE 34.53N 90.41W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH TUNICA MS PUBLIC

REPORTED BY PERSON DRIVING DOWN HIGHWAY 61.

0130 PM TSTM WND GST 25 NNE CLARKSDALE 34.53N 90.41W
10/12/2010 E60.00 MPH TUNICA MS PUBLIC

WIND ALMOST FLIPPED TRACTOR TRAILER DRIVING DOWN HIGHWAY
61.

0150 PM HAIL MILLINGTON 35.33N 89.89W
10/12/2010 E0.88 INCH SHELBY TN PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN MILLINGTON...JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 51
AT THE INTERSECTION OF QUITO AND SHELBY.

0200 PM HAIL MILLINGTON 35.33N 89.89W
10/12/2010 E0.75 INCH SHELBY TN PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE MIDDLE SCHOOL IN MILLINGTON.

0225 PM HAIL SENATOBIA 34.62N 89.97W
10/12/2010 E0.25 INCH TATE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

0230 PM HAIL 2 S COLDWATER 34.66N 89.98W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH TATE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HWY 51 BETWEEN SENATOBIA AND COLDWATER HAD NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0230 PM HAIL 2 S COLDWATER 34.66N 89.98W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH TATE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HWY 51 BETWEEN SENATOBIA AND COLDWATER HAD NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0235 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E SENATOBIA 34.62N 89.95W
10/12/2010 E60.00 MPH TATE MS TRAINED SPOTTER

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG BATESVILLE 34.32N 89.94W
10/12/2010 PANOLA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0250 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W BATESVILLE 34.32N 89.97W
10/12/2010 PANOLA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE BLOWN OVER ONTO CAR.

0255 PM TSTM WND DMG BATESVILLE 34.32N 89.94W
10/12/2010 PANOLA MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME NEAR 7RD. AND CURTIS RD.

0303 PM TSTM WND DMG BATESVILLE 34.32N 89.94W
10/12/2010 PANOLA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON HOME AND CAR IN DOWNTOWN BATESVILLE. POWER
LINES DOWN ON HWY 35N

0317 PM HAIL PARSONS 35.65N 88.12W
10/12/2010 E0.25 INCH DECATUR TN PUBLIC

0317 PM HAIL INDEPENDENCE 34.70N 89.80W
10/12/2010 E0.25 INCH TATE MS TRAINED SPOTTER

ON MS HWY 305 1.5 MILES SOUTH OF MS HWY 306.

0317 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W OXFORD 34.36N 89.61W
10/12/2010 LAFAYETTE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN

0320 PM HAIL 2 W TULA 34.23N 89.40W
10/12/2010 E0.88 INCH LAFAYETTE MS TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM HAIL 5 NW OXFORD 34.41N 89.59W
10/12/2010 E0.25 INCH LAFAYETTE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

0340 PM HAIL PARAGOULD 36.06N 90.51W
10/12/2010 E0.88 INCH GREENE AR PUBLIC

ON DENNINGTON STREET JUST SOUTH OF HWY 69 NEAR THE
EMERSON FACTORY.

0350 PM HAIL TULA 34.23N 89.37W
10/12/2010 E0.88 INCH LAFAYETTE MS TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY - NICKEL SIZED HAIL ON CR436.

0350 PM HAIL PONTOTOC 34.25N 89.01W
10/12/2010 E0.25 INCH PONTOTOC MS EMERGENCY MNGR

DOWNTOWN JONESBORO.

0403 PM HAIL CALHOUN CITY 33.86N 89.31W
10/12/2010 E0.75 INCH CALHOUN MS TRAINED SPOTTER

0403 PM HAIL 1 S PARIS 34.17N 89.47W
10/12/2010 E0.25 INCH LAFAYETTE MS PUBLIC

NEAR INTERSECTION OF HWY 218 AND HWY 77.

0411 PM HAIL 2 NW ALGOMA 34.20N 89.06W
10/12/2010 E1.25 INCH PONTOTOC MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO 1/2 DOLLAR SIZED HAIL NEAR HWY 341.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW ALBANY 34.49N 89.02W
10/12/2010 UNION MS PUBLIC

TREES DOWN NEAR HWY 30 AND MARTINTOWN ROAD. DEBRIS IN
ROAD. PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0447 PM HAIL PARIS 36.30N 88.31W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH HENRY TN CO-OP OBSERVER

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BELMONT 34.51N 88.21W
10/12/2010 TISHOMINGO MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

ZEI

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KJAN [130107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 130107
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
807 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE LAUREL 31.72N 89.13W
10/12/2010 JONES MS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE BLOWN DOWN IN THE SHARON COMMUNITY .

&&

$$

JFAIRLY

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KBMX [130106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 130106
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
805 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM TSTM WND DMG TUSCALOOSA 33.24N 87.54W
10/12/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES REPORTED DOWN IN THE CITY
AND ALONG HWY 82 TO THE SOUTH. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 MPH.

&&

$$

GOLDEN

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KBOU [121830]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 121830
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1230 PM MDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
10/12/2010 M2.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1137 AM SNOW FAIRPLAY 39.22N 106.00W
10/12/2010 M4.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1032 AM SNOW 4 N BAILEY 39.46N 105.47W
10/12/2010 M1.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1026 AM SNOW 2 N FRASER 39.97N 105.79W
10/12/2010 M2.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1004 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/12/2010 M4.3 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0953 AM SNOW FAIRPLAY 39.22N 106.00W
10/12/2010 M1.8 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
10/12/2010 M0.3 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/12/2010 M3.3 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 AM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
10/12/2010 M1.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0844 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/12/2010 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0801 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
10/12/2010 M0.2 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

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KLCH [121825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 121825
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
125 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HAIL 1 W BON WEIR 30.74N 93.67W
10/11/2010 M1.75 INCH NEWTON TX PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTS HAIL 1 1/4 TO 1 3/4 INCH.

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KLZK [121819]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 121819
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
119 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM HAIL MCGEHEE 33.63N 91.39W
10/12/2010 E1.75 INCH DESHA AR EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

227

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KMEG [121817]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 121817
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
117 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM HAIL HELENA 34.53N 90.60W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH PHILLIPS AR PUBLIC

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW QUARTERS. HAIL LASTED
FOR 30 MINUTES.

&&

$$

RRH

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KOHX [121808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOHX 121808
LSROHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
108 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0107 PM HAIL 12 N CENTERVILLE 35.97N 87.45W
10/12/2010 M1.00 INCH HICKMAN TN AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER

&&

$$

MDAVIS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 699

WWUS20 KWNS 121746
SEL9
SPC WW 121746
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-130100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PART OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1245 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENVILLE MISSISSIPPI TO 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF JACKSON
TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING AND NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS ERN AR AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. WITH CONTINUED HEATING...SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS OVERALL ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE
WATCH. PRIMARY THREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...HALES

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KFGZ [121745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121745
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1044 AM MST TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM TORNADO 13 SSW BELLEMONT 35.05N 111.91W
10/06/2010 COCONINO AZ PUBLIC

NUMBEROUS TREES DOWNED... UPROOTED... AND SNAPPED.
PINES OF 3 FEET IN DIAMETER SNAPPED. SIX SITES WITH SUCH
DAMAGE REPORTED IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000224

$$

HOWARD

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KFGZ [121740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 121740
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1039 AM MST TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HAIL 13 SSW BELLEMONT 35.05N 111.91W
10/06/2010 M2.75 INCH COCONINO AZ PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000223

$$

HOWARD

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121728
SWODY2
SPC AC 121726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHER MID LATITUDE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES APPEARS LIKELY TO
AMPLIFY FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICAN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES...INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND ROCKIES THROUGH THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AT THE
SAME TIME...A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED
TO DIG DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER AREA INTO THE EASTERN STATES...CONTRIBUTING THE EVOLUTION OF
A BROADER SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

MODELS INDICATE THE PHASING OR MERGER OF SEVERAL DISTINCT BRANCHES
OF FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...INCLUDING ONE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW NOW
DIGGING ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...AND ANOTHER
EMANATING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS IS PROGGED TO
EVENTUALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST...BUT WAVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT COMMENCE
ALONG A FRONT LINGERING NEAR SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z THURSDAY.

HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 2+
INCHES/ IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
REMNANT FRONT NEAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AS WELL AS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS.

ELSEWHERE...TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...A NORTHWARD RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE ACROSS SONORA IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN
INCREASING RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN ARIZONA BORDER AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES/MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO APPALACHIANS...
STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF THE LEAD DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO EARLY DAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WHICH COULD BE
ONGOING FROM PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEASTERN/NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE...AT LEAST
INITIALLY...ELEVATED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE...BUT COULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE DESTABILIZING
WARM SECTOR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS UPPER FORCING SPREADS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MAXIMUM CAPE COULD APPROACH
OR EXCEED 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...WARM
SECTOR WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN RATHER
WEAK...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER AND MID-LEVELS... WHICH SHOULD
MINIMIZE...IF NOT NEGATE...ANY RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

..KERR.. 10/12/2010

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KLZK [121711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 121711
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 AM HAIL 3 NW WARREN 33.64N 92.11W
10/12/2010 M1.00 INCH BRADLEY AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORTED ALONG HWY 8.

&&

$$

227

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KBOU [121707]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 121707
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1107 AM MDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1032 AM SNOW 4 N BAILEY 39.46N 105.47W
10/12/2010 M1.0 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1026 AM SNOW 2 N FRASER 39.97N 105.79W
10/12/2010 M2.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

1004 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/12/2010 M4.3 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0953 AM SNOW FAIRPLAY 39.22N 106.00W
10/12/2010 M1.8 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
10/12/2010 M0.3 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/12/2010 M3.3 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 AM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
10/12/2010 M1.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0844 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/12/2010 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0801 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
10/12/2010 M0.2 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1952

ACUS11 KWNS 121634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121634
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-121730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NERN LA...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121634Z - 121730Z

STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING WITHIN ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED
INSTABILITY ALONG THE MS DELTA REGION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORTS THIS INCREASING BUOYANCY PER RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
FROM UNION COUNTY TO MONROE COUNTY IN SERN AR. IN FACT UPDRAFTS
HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKLY IN THIS ZONE WHERE SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES ARE
NOW APPROACHING 9 C/KM. IT APPEARS THIS ZONE OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD EWD INTO NWRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CENTER OF
UPPER LOW OVER NWRN AR IS SHUNTED TOWARD LIT BY MID AFTERNOON. COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES FAVOR HAIL
PRODUCTION...THOUGH LARGEST HAILSTONES MAY ONLY BRIEFLY EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS.

..DARROW.. 10/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32779293 34289216 35289065 34938939 33768978 32679116
32779293

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121559
SWODY1
SPC AC 121557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE PLAINS PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN AR THIS MORNING. WESTERLIES WILL FINALLY
EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PICK UP THE LOW AS IT SHEARS AND
ACCELERATES EWD TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES.

MONDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED A BOUNDARY AND HIGHER THETAE
AIR OFFSHORE CENTRAL GULF COAST...HOWEVER AIR MASS REMAINS
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW SHOULD YIELD AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG LWR MS
RIVER VALLEY REGION.

THE BELT OF STRONGEST MIDLEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT DEEP WLY SHEAR
WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR AND S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH FLOW FIELD
DECREASING WITH NWD EXTENT. GIVEN THE MODEST DESTABILIZATION
ANTICIPATED BY AFTERNOON...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORM MODES...INCLUDING MULTI- AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL INTO TONIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ERN MD...DE..SERN PA AND SRN NJ ALONG
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON 12Z
PIT/IAD OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID THIS
AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY
STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AS SUCH...A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED LATER
TODAY.

..HALES/GARNER.. 10/12/2010

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KCTP [121559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCTP 121559
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1159 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N STATE COLLEGE 40.82N 77.86W
10/11/2010 M55.00 MPH CENTRE PA NWS EMPLOYEE

ROOF OF NWS OFFICE

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG BOALSBURG 40.77N 77.79W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON BOALSBURG RD

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG STATE COLLEGE 40.79N 77.86W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE DAMAGE REPORTS

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG STATE COLLEGE 40.79N 77.86W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON BEAVER AVE

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE STATE COLLEGE 40.81N 77.83W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON HOUSERVILLE RD

0600 PM HAIL AUSTIN 41.64N 78.09W
10/11/2010 M1.00 INCH POTTER PA EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZE HAIL NEAR THE AUSTIN BROUGH SCHOOL.

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE AUSTIN 41.63N 78.08W
10/11/2010 POTTER PA EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE TREE DOWN JUST SE OF AUSTIN.

0722 PM HAIL 2 N WILLIAMSPORT 41.27N 77.02W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH LYCOMING PA PUBLIC

QUARTER AND PING PONG SIZE HAIL IN LOYALSOCK TOWNSHIP

0805 PM HAIL 1 NNW BLANDBURG 40.71N 78.44W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH CAMBRIA PA BROADCAST MEDIA

1 INCH HAIL IN GLASGOW READE TWP...RELAYED VIA WTAJ-TV 10
CHIEF METEOROLOGIST

&&

$$

DNM

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KBOU [121556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 121556
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
956 AM MDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM SNOW FAIRPLAY 39.22N 106.00W
10/12/2010 M1.8 INCH PARK CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0945 AM SNOW 1 S EVERGREEN 39.63N 105.34W
10/12/2010 M0.3 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 AM SNOW 3 N BLACK HAWK 39.84N 105.49W
10/12/2010 M3.3 INCH GILPIN CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 AM SNOW 3 SW CONIFER 39.49N 105.34W
10/12/2010 M1.5 INCH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0844 AM SNOW 4 ENE NEDERLAND 39.98N 105.44W
10/12/2010 M1.5 INCH BOULDER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0801 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
10/12/2010 M0.2 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FREDIN

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KEWX [121541]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 121541
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 2 WSW WILLOW CITY 30.38N 98.73W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH GILLESPIE TX COCORAHS

MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

0700 PM HAIL 2 N JOHNSON CITY 30.30N 98.41W
10/11/2010 M0.88 INCH BLANCO TX PUBLIC

0710 PM HAIL HORSESHOE BAY 30.54N 98.35W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH LLANO TX PUBLIC

HAIL RANGING FROM PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL FOR
THE PAST 5 MINUTES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000527 EWX1000525 EWX1000526

$$

JPB

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KEWX [121525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEWX 121525
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1025 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 2 WSW WILLOW CITY 30.38N 98.73W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH GILLESPIE TX COCORAHS

MARBLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1000527

$$

JPB

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KABR [121444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KABR 121444
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM TSTM WND GST 15 SW PIERRE 44.22N 100.54W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH STANLEY SD PUBLIC

DIME SIZED HAIL OBSERVED AS WELL.

0846 PM TSTM WND GST PIERRE 44.37N 100.32W
10/08/2010 M72.00 MPH HUGHES SD ASOS

0855 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW PIERRE 44.44N 100.36W
10/08/2010 E70.00 MPH HUGHES SD PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL AND 60 - 70 MPH WINDS

&&

$$

NWS

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KPHI [121349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 121349
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
949 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM HAIL WHITE HOUSE STATION 40.62N 74.77W
10/11/2010 E0.75 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 PM HAIL SOMERVILLE 40.57N 74.61W
10/11/2010 E0.50 INCH SOMERSET NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM HAIL SOUTH BOUND BROOK 40.55N 74.53W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM HAIL BOUND BROOK 40.57N 74.54W
10/11/2010 E0.50 INCH SOMERSET NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM HAIL 5 SE MIDDLESEX 40.52N 74.43W
10/11/2010 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ PUBLIC

PISCATAWAY TOWNSHIP

0745 PM HAIL WOODBRIDGE 40.55N 74.29W
10/11/2010 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 PM HAIL N EDISON 40.53N 74.37W
10/11/2010 E0.50 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E BOONTON 40.90N 74.37W
10/11/2010 MORRIS NJ COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES DOWN

0829 PM HAIL BASKING RIDGE 40.71N 74.55W
10/11/2010 E0.25 INCH SOMERSET NJ PUBLIC

1025 PM TSTM WND DMG CAMDEN 39.94N 75.11W
10/11/2010 CAMDEN NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

SCATTERED WIRES DOWN IN CAMDEN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF
COUNTY.

1200 AM MARINE TSTM WIND BRANDYWINE SHOAL NOS 38.99N 75.11W
10/12/2010 M38.00 MPH ANZ431 DE BUOY

A 38 MPH, 33 KT, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT
BRANDYWINE SHOAL.

1212 AM MARINE TSTM WIND CAPE MAY NOS BUOY 38.97N 74.96W
10/12/2010 M48.00 MPH ANZ431 NJ C-MAN STATION

A 48 MPH, 42 KT, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT
CAPE MAY.

1221 AM TSTM WND GST CAPE MAY 38.94N 74.90W
10/12/2010 M39.00 MPH CAPE MAY NJ MESONET

A 39 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE CAPE
MAY FERRY TERMINAL.

1250 AM MARINE TSTM WIND ATLANTIC CITY NOS BUOY 39.35N 74.42W
10/12/2010 M38.00 MPH ANZ452 NJ C-MAN STATION

A 38 MPH, 33 KT, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT
THE ATLANTIC CITY MARINA.

&&

$$

R0BERTSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121238
SWODY1
SPC AC 121236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH EARLY WED. AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS...SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND AN ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALONG WITH A BELT OF 35-45
KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SERIES OF MCSS /NOW DECAYED
OFF THE LA COAST/ HAVE EFFECTIVELY SCOURED THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR
MASS WHICH WAS EARLIER IN PLACE ACROSS ERN TX INTO LA. RESIDUAL
EFFECTS...MOST NOTABLY SEEN IN BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING...WILL LIKELY
TEMPER THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WAR SECTOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.

LATEST CONVECTION-RESOLVING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE EPISODES OF STORMS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY FORCED BY VORTICITY LOBES PIVOTING AROUND
PARENT CIRCULATION. BASED ON CURRENT VWP...PROFILER...12Z UPPER-AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL FORECASTS...THE BELT OF STRONGEST
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR
AND S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH FLOW FIELD DECREASING WITH NWD
EXTENT. GIVEN THE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES...
INCLUDING MULTI- AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL INTO TONIGHT.

...MID ATLANTIC COAST...

MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE /BOTH MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-RESOLVING/
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ERN MD...DE..SERN PA AND SRN NJ ALONG COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON 12Z PIT/IAD
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID THIS AFTERNOON...
ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AS SUCH...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED LATER TODAY.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 10/12/2010

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KCTP [121018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCTP 121018
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
617 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0257 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N STATE COLLEGE 40.82N 77.86W
10/11/2010 M55.00 MPH CENTRE PA NWS EMPLOYEE

ROOF OF NWS OFFICE

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG STATE COLLEGE 40.79N 77.86W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON BEAVER AVE

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE STATE COLLEGE 40.81N 77.83W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON HOUSERVILLE RD

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG BOALSBURG 40.77N 77.79W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA EMERGENCY MNGR

MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON BOALSBURG RD

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG STATE COLLEGE 40.79N 77.86W
10/11/2010 CENTRE PA LAW ENFORCEMENT

MULTIPLE DAMAGE REPORTS

0722 PM HAIL 2 N WILLIAMSPORT 41.27N 77.02W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH LYCOMING PA PUBLIC

QUARTER AND PING PONG SIZE HAIL IN LOYALSOCK TOWNSHIP

0805 PM HAIL 1 NNW BLANDBURG 40.71N 78.44W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH CAMBRIA PA BROADCAST MEDIA

1 INCH HAIL IN GLASGOW READE TWP...RELAYED VIA WTAJ-TV 10
CHIEF METEOROLOGIST

&&

$$

MS

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KPHI [120938]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KPHI 120938
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
538 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0706 PM HAIL WHITE HOUSE STATION 40.62N 74.77W
10/11/2010 E0.75 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0720 PM HAIL SOMERVILLE 40.57N 74.61W
10/11/2010 E0.50 INCH SOMERSET NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM HAIL BOUND BROOK 40.57N 74.54W
10/11/2010 E0.50 INCH SOMERSET NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM HAIL SOUTH BOUND BROOK 40.55N 74.53W
10/11/2010 E1.00 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0735 PM HAIL 5 SE MIDDLESEX 40.52N 74.43W
10/11/2010 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ PUBLIC

PISCATAWAY TOWNSHIP

0745 PM HAIL WOODBRIDGE 40.55N 74.29W
10/11/2010 E0.25 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0750 PM HAIL N EDISON 40.53N 74.37W
10/11/2010 E0.50 INCH MIDDLESEX NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E BOONTON 40.90N 74.37W
10/11/2010 MORRIS NJ COUNTY OFFICIAL

TREES DOWN

0829 PM HAIL BASKING RIDGE 40.71N 74.55W
10/11/2010 E0.25 INCH SOMERSET NJ PUBLIC

1200 AM MARINE TSTM WIND BRANDYWINE SHOAL NOS 38.99N 75.11W
10/12/2010 M38.00 MPH ANZ431 DE BUOY

A 38 MPH, 33 KT, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT
BRANDYWINE SHOAL.

1212 AM MARINE TSTM WIND CAPE MAY NOS BUOY 38.97N 74.96W
10/12/2010 M48.00 MPH ANZ431 NJ C-MAN STATION

A 48 MPH, 42 KT, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT
CAPE MAY.

1221 AM TSTM WND GST CAPE MAY 38.94N 74.90W
10/12/2010 M39.00 MPH CAPE MAY NJ MESONET

A 39 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THE CAPE
MAY FERRY TERMINAL.

1250 AM MARINE TSTM WIND ATLANTIC CITY NOS BUOY 39.35N 74.42W
10/12/2010 M38.00 MPH ANZ452 NJ C-MAN STATION

A 38 MPH, 33 KT, THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT
THE ATLANTIC CITY MARINA.

&&

$$

IOVINO/DELISI/GORSE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120755
SWOD48
SPC AC 120754

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...

A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EAST WITH OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER
PATTERN DAY 4-5 WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
DAY 6 DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN. ERN TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BREAK DOWN /AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ BY DAY 6 WITH A TRANSITION TO A
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. MODEL DISCREPANCIES AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND DAY 6 ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDERCUTTING UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING
INTO THE WRN STATES. PREDICTABILITY BEYOND DAY 6 REMAINS LOW DUE TO
EXPECTED HIGHLY TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF THE PATTERN AND DISPERSIVE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

..DIAL.. 10/12/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120704
SWODY3
SPC AC 120703

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ERN STATES
AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES DROPS SEWD INTO THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION. THIS VORT MAX WILL INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
NC COAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A COLD
FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEWD ADVANCING IMPULSE AND USHER IN A
REINFORCING SURGE OF CP AIR.

...ERN NC...

FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH APPROACH OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS NC. WITH DEWPOINTS FROM
50S-LOW 60S F IN WARM SECTOR...AT LEAST MARGINAL SBCAPE SHOULD BE
AVAILABLE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 3 KM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH
A DEEP LAYER WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EVOLVE OVER ERN
NC...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE LIKELY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/12/2010

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KLCH [120650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 120650
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
150 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLOOD 4 WSW CARENCRO 30.29N 92.10W
10/11/2010 LAFAYETTE LA BROADCAST MEDIA

KATC-TV REPORTED FLOODING NEAR OSSUN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
NORTH OF SCOTT.

0809 PM HAIL 5 SSW NEWTON 30.78N 93.79W
10/11/2010 E0.88 INCH NEWTON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR
PINEGROVE.

1142 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N COLMESNEIL 30.94N 94.42W
10/11/2010 TYLER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TYLER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON
HIGHWAY 255 NORTH OF COLMESNEIL.

1145 PM TSTM WND DMG COLMESNEIL 30.91N 94.42W
10/11/2010 TYLER TX UTILITY COMPANY

ENTERGY REPORTED WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN
TYLER COUNTY.

1146 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 S BROOKELAND 31.03N 93.99W
10/11/2010 JASPER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

JASPER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON
HIGHWAY 96 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 255.

1200 AM HAIL HILLISTER 30.67N 94.38W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH TYLER TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [120631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 120631
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
130 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 S BROOKELAND 31.03N 93.99W
10/11/2010 JASPER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

JASPER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON
HIGHWAY 96 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 255.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [120622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 120622
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
122 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM TSTM WND DMG COLMESNEIL 30.91N 94.42W
10/11/2010 TYLER TX UTILITY COMPANY

ENTERGY REPORTED WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES ACROSS NORTHERN
TYLER COUNTY.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KLCH [120621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 120621
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
121 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1142 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N COLMESNEIL 30.94N 94.42W
10/11/2010 TYLER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TYLER COUNTY SHERIFF OFFICE REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON
HIGHWAY 255 NORTH OF COLMESNEIL.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1951

ACUS11 KWNS 120548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120548
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-120715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW AND SCNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120548Z - 120715Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SE TX AND
SW-SCNTRL LA LATE TONIGHT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT ONGOING ACROSS SW LA IS LOCATED ON THE NRN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN SCNTRL LA.
THIS SECONDARY CLUSTER HAS OVERTURNED THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN LA AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AS THE
BOWING LINE-SEGMENT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SW LA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WHICH ALONG WITH 35 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 10/12/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 30239478 29699270 29699190 30049129 30509114 30979147
31439223 31619286 31679358 31049397 30239478

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120531
SWODY1
SPC AC 120530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MS VALLEY AND MS DELTA
WWD TO THE UPPER TX COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ACCOMPANYING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL LIKELY AID IN DISLODGING
THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS CNTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD ESEWD FROM TX
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE LOW OPENS INTO
A BROAD UPPER WAVE. UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ANOTHER TROUGH CROSSING NEW ENGLAND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL ALSO TAKE FORM OVER THE WRN US THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY/MS DELTA WWD TO SCNTRL TX...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MAY BE ONGOING OVER LA/MS EARLY TODAY
SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL MASS AND MOISTURE FLUX ON THE NOSE OF WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MAY LIMIT STRONGER DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...INCREASING LIFT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF MID/UPPER
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING LARGE SCALE SYSTEM...AND PROXIMITY
AND PERSISTENCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
GULF COAST...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW MORE
INTENSE TSTMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS FROM MS INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TN AND AL.

IN ADDITION TO AN UPTICK IN STORM INTENSITY WITH ANY LEADING
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD/NEWD FROM THE MS RIVER...STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEADING
CONVECTION...IN AN ARC FROM SERN AR ACROSS LA TO THE UPPER TX
COAST...AND ALSO WWD ACROSS SCNTRL TX LATER TODAY. WEAKENING
INHIBITION AND MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG WILL OCCUR IN THESE AREAS
COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OF 40-50KT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW BANDS OF FAST-MOVING STORMS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS
POSSIBLE.

..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 10/12/2010

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KLCH [120510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 120510
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1210 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HAIL HILLISTER 30.67N 94.38W
10/12/2010 E1.00 INCH TYLER TX PUBLIC

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120505
SWODY2
SPC AC 120504

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN A STATE OF TRANSITION FROM SPLIT FLOW TO A
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND
EVENTUAL PHASING OF THE NRN AND SRN STREAMS. UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE OFF THE
GA COAST IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM WAVE. AT THE SURFACE
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CAROLINAS NWWD INTO THE TN/OH
VALLEY REGION. FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES...OH...TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS.

...OH AND TN VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS...

SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE AND SEWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...AS WELL AS WITHIN FRONTAL
ZONE FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO THE OH/TN VALLEY. WITH OFFSHORE
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH LOW SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DIAL.. 10/12/2010

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