SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120548
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-120715-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW AND SCNTRL LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120548Z - 120715Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SE TX AND
SW-SCNTRL LA LATE TONIGHT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
A BOWING LINE-SEGMENT ONGOING ACROSS SW LA IS LOCATED ON THE NRN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN
THE 500 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER EAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT...ANOTHER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED IN SCNTRL LA.
THIS SECONDARY CLUSTER HAS OVERTURNED THE AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHWESTERN LA AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT UPDRAFT INTENSITY AS THE
BOWING LINE-SEGMENT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS SW LA LATE TONIGHT.
STILL...ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT WHICH ALONG WITH 35 TO 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE LAKE CHARLES WSR-88D VWP SHOULD
BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS BUT THE THREAT SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 10/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 30239478 29699270 29699190 30049129 30509114 30979147
31439223 31619286 31679358 31049397 30239478
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