AWUS01 KWNH 130342
FFGMPD
TXZ000-130900-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0273
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1142 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 130340Z - 130900Z
SUMMARY...EXPANDING AND GRADUALLY ORGANIZING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST IR SAT IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUALLY
EXPANDING AND ORGANIZING COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX.
THE ACTIVITY IS SLOW-MOVING AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE TAIL END OF
A FRONT THAT HAD MOVED SOUTH INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING UPR TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. LATEST GOES-SOUNDER DATA
SHOWS PWATS INVOF THE BNDRY AOA 1.5 INCHES...WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT SEEN THE LAST
FEW HOURS. COMPLEMENTING THIS IS ALSO THE MID AND HIGH LVL
MOISTURE TAP SEEN IN IR/WV IMAGERY WITH RESPECT TO NEWLY FORMED
T.D. 15-E IN THE E PAC....AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW JET ASSOCD
WITH THIS. MOISTURE AND EMBEDDED VORT ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS
MAINLAND MEXICO AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX WILL LIKELY TEND
TO AID AND HELP ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WV IMAGERY STRONGLY SUGGESTS ALREADY AN
AXIS OF DIV FLOW NEAR THE FRONT...AND THE RESULTING DEEP LYR
ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR BACK-BUILDING AND MERGING
CONVECTIVE CELLS...AND WITH ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION...SEVERAL
SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HVY
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LIKELY. FFG VALUES ARE RATHER HIGH...BUT
WITH RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES/HR...AND THE SLOW
MOVEMENT...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND FLASH FLOODING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
ORRISON
...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...
LAT...LON 31229585 30689632 30289761 30099899 30390067 31040104
31470046 31719902 32379704 31939580 31229585
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Saturday, October 12, 2013
KLCH [130336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KLCH 130336
LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM TSTM WND DMG WELSH 30.24N 92.81W
10/12/2013 JEFFERSON DAVIS LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
MANY TREES REPORTED DOWN ON BELLARD ROAD AND POWER IS
OUT.
&&
$$
JSWEENEY
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LSRLCH
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM TSTM WND DMG WELSH 30.24N 92.81W
10/12/2013 JEFFERSON DAVIS LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
MANY TREES REPORTED DOWN ON BELLARD ROAD AND POWER IS
OUT.
&&
$$
JSWEENEY
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KFWD [130126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 130126
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
826 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0422 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 S MARQUEZ 31.09N 96.27W
10/12/2013 LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN IN THE HILLTOP LAKES AREA
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
826 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0422 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 S MARQUEZ 31.09N 96.27W
10/12/2013 LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN IN THE HILLTOP LAKES AREA
$$
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KFWD [130121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 130121
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG JEWETT 31.37N 96.15W
10/12/2013 LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN ON BLACKJACK STREET
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
821 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG JEWETT 31.37N 96.15W
10/12/2013 LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN ON BLACKJACK STREET
$$
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KFWD [130119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 130119
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
819 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG JEWETT 31.37N 96.15W
10/12/2013 LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWNED ON CR317 AND CR314 IN THE JEWETT AREA
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
819 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0400 PM TSTM WND DMG JEWETT 31.37N 96.15W
10/12/2013 LEON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWNED ON CR317 AND CR314 IN THE JEWETT AREA
$$
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 130054
SWODY1
SPC AC 130052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF W AND CNTRL TX...AND MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED TSTMS INTO EARLY SUN. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WILL
EXIST WITH ONGOING AND DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS TX.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT
BASIN.
..ROGERS.. 10/13/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 130052
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONVECTION ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF W AND CNTRL TX...AND MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELEVATED TSTMS INTO EARLY SUN. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WILL
EXIST WITH ONGOING AND DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS TX.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DIG SWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT
BASIN.
..ROGERS.. 10/13/2013
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KFWD [122316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 122316
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM TSTM WND DMG CLIFTON 31.78N 97.58W
10/12/2013 BOSQUE TX BROADCAST MEDIA
POWER POLE SNAPPED NEAR THE HIGH SCHOOL IN CLIFTON. TIME
ESTIMATED.
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 PM TSTM WND DMG CLIFTON 31.78N 97.58W
10/12/2013 BOSQUE TX BROADCAST MEDIA
POWER POLE SNAPPED NEAR THE HIGH SCHOOL IN CLIFTON. TIME
ESTIMATED.
$$
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KHGX [122300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHGX 122300
LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 13 WSW MADISONVILLE 30.86N 96.10W
10/12/2013 MADISON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300193
$$
BLOOD
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LSRHGX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0455 PM TSTM WND DMG 13 WSW MADISONVILLE 30.86N 96.10W
10/12/2013 MADISON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTY.
&&
EVENT NUMBER HGX1300193
$$
BLOOD
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KTSA [122238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KTSA 122238
LSRTSA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 3 E NASHOBA 34.48N 95.16W
10/12/2013 E0.50 INCH PUSHMATAHA OK TRAINED SPOTTER
ABOUT DIME SIZE HAIL.
&&
$$
AEJ
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LSRTSA
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
538 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0530 PM HAIL 3 E NASHOBA 34.48N 95.16W
10/12/2013 E0.50 INCH PUSHMATAHA OK TRAINED SPOTTER
ABOUT DIME SIZE HAIL.
&&
$$
AEJ
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KJAN [122234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KJAN 122234
LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
534 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL HARRISONBURG 31.77N 91.82W
10/12/2013 E1.00 INCH CATAHOULA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWNED AROUND THE CITY OF HARRISONBURG.
&&
$$
MME
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LSRJAN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
534 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0511 PM HAIL HARRISONBURG 31.77N 91.82W
10/12/2013 E1.00 INCH CATAHOULA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT
QUARTER SIZED HAIL...NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES
DOWNED AROUND THE CITY OF HARRISONBURG.
&&
$$
MME
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KFWD [122218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KFWD 122218
LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0438 PM TSTM WND DMG AUBREY 33.30N 96.98W
10/12/2013 DENTON TX TRAINED SPOTTER
ROOF DAMAGE TO A BARN. TREE DOWN AT FISH TRAP AND OAK
RD. TELEPHONE POLE DOWN AT 5065 HWY 377 CROSS ROADS.
$$
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LSRFWD
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0438 PM TSTM WND DMG AUBREY 33.30N 96.98W
10/12/2013 DENTON TX TRAINED SPOTTER
ROOF DAMAGE TO A BARN. TREE DOWN AT FISH TRAP AND OAK
RD. TELEPHONE POLE DOWN AT 5065 HWY 377 CROSS ROADS.
$$
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KSJT [122159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KSJT 122159
LSRSJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
458 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0456 PM TSTM WND DMG BROWNWOOD 31.71N 98.99W
10/12/2013 BROWN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
*** 2 INJ *** TWO TREES DOWN...EACH FELL ON VEHICLES.
ONE VEHICLE HAD PASSENGERS...TWO WERE INJURED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER SJT1300435
$$
JD
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LSRSJT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
458 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0456 PM TSTM WND DMG BROWNWOOD 31.71N 98.99W
10/12/2013 BROWN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
*** 2 INJ *** TWO TREES DOWN...EACH FELL ON VEHICLES.
ONE VEHICLE HAD PASSENGERS...TWO WERE INJURED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER SJT1300435
$$
JD
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1967
ACUS11 KWNS 122126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122125
TXZ000-122300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF E CENTRAL/SE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122125Z - 122300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
23Z WITH ONGOING CLUSTERS AND ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MERGERS...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL AND CONFINED IN
TIME/SPACE TO WARRANT A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER N OF CLL HAS DEVELOPED SOME
BOWING CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES ESEWD AT 35 KT. THE CLUSTER IS
NOW MOVING ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS TO THE
E...WHILE A SECOND OUTFLOW IS MOVING NWD TO THE NW-N OF HOUSTON. A
CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG PERSISTS BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE.
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR AND BUOYANCY IS OVERTURNED...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IN THE COLLEGE
STATION TO HUNTSVILLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.
..THOMPSON.. 10/12/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31059635 31279601 31429590 31559565 31539536 31369496
31329483 31089463 30589462 30349485 30409526 30549581
30629624 30709642 30759652 30939648 31059635
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122125
TXZ000-122300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF E CENTRAL/SE TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122125Z - 122300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
23Z WITH ONGOING CLUSTERS AND ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MERGERS...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL AND CONFINED IN
TIME/SPACE TO WARRANT A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER N OF CLL HAS DEVELOPED SOME
BOWING CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES ESEWD AT 35 KT. THE CLUSTER IS
NOW MOVING ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS TO THE
E...WHILE A SECOND OUTFLOW IS MOVING NWD TO THE NW-N OF HOUSTON. A
CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG PERSISTS BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE.
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR AND BUOYANCY IS OVERTURNED...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IN THE COLLEGE
STATION TO HUNTSVILLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.
..THOMPSON.. 10/12/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31059635 31279601 31429590 31559565 31539536 31369496
31329483 31089463 30589462 30349485 30409526 30549581
30629624 30709642 30759652 30939648 31059635
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 120726
SWODY3
SPC AC 120725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S. SYNOPTIC TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH NEB WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
THE DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NWD
THROUGH KS AND SERN NEB
...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD FROM TX THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING A
STRONG SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD DURING THE
DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NEGATIVELY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. IN WAKE OF EARLY
STORMS...A CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC WARMING MAY OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS MIX
OUT IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/
MLCAPE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG SEWD SURGING
COLD FRONT AND ALONG DRYLINE-COLD FRONT MERGER WHERE STRONG /45-50
KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD
THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND KS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS AND CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT IMPOSED BY EXPECTED ONGOING STORMS ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY
2 UPDATE.
..DIAL.. 10/12/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 120725
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S. SYNOPTIC TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH NEB WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
THE DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NWD
THROUGH KS AND SERN NEB
...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD FROM TX THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING A
STRONG SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD DURING THE
DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NEGATIVELY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. IN WAKE OF EARLY
STORMS...A CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC WARMING MAY OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS MIX
OUT IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/
MLCAPE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG SEWD SURGING
COLD FRONT AND ALONG DRYLINE-COLD FRONT MERGER WHERE STRONG /45-50
KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD
THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND KS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS AND CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT IMPOSED BY EXPECTED ONGOING STORMS ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY
2 UPDATE.
..DIAL.. 10/12/2013
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 120600
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY
SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...REACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. WARM FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS
OK AND NWRN TX SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO KS BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
ROCKIES.
...CNTRL THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST OF
DEVELOPING LEE LOW. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE NEWD EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL
MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS...MODEST NWD DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION ATTENDING THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC
WARMING MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM THROUGH ERN CO ALONG
WRN AND NWRN FRINGE OF MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS
ERN NM AND BELOW 500 J/KG OVER ERN CO WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NM INTO SE CO.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
MID-UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME OF THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE FARTHER NWD INTO ERN CO
OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION...STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL...BUT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PROVIDE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH LATE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE
A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM KS NWD INTO NEB/SD WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
..DIAL.. 10/12/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 120559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL AMPLIFY
SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY...REACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES LATER
SUNDAY NIGHT. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...A LEE CYCLONE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. WARM FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS
OK AND NWRN TX SUNDAY MORNING WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO KS BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE A PACIFIC FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN
ROCKIES.
...CNTRL THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EAST OF
DEVELOPING LEE LOW. THE RESULTING WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE NEWD EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL
MOIST PLUME ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS...MODEST NWD DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION ATTENDING THE
ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC
WARMING MAY OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM ERN NM THROUGH ERN CO ALONG
WRN AND NWRN FRINGE OF MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG ACROSS
ERN NM AND BELOW 500 J/KG OVER ERN CO WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
LIMITED...BUT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AXIS DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN NM INTO SE CO.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS
MID-UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...AND SOME OF THE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS MAY INCREASE FARTHER NWD INTO ERN CO
OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION...STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE EAST OF THE
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL...BUT A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
PROVIDE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DAYTIME CLOUDS AND
DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH LATE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE
A CATEGORICAL RISK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS MIGHT NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS STORMS /LIKELY ELEVATED/ SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM KS NWD INTO NEB/SD WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
LLJ. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
..DIAL.. 10/12/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 120556
SWODY1
SPC AC 120554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WRN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE ACQUIRING A
NEGATIVE TILT...WITH GRADUAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL DIG SWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SFC...SRN EXTENSION OF A CENTRAL CONUS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT FORMED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CNTRL CONUS SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. IN IT/S
WAKE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
POSITIONED ACROSS SERN MO AND CNTRL AR...WITH THE FRONTAL SEGMENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE AFTERNOON. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT S OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT
THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS INVOF THE FRONT...BUT WITHIN POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING THE AIR MASS MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS N TX/ SHOULD SFC TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S F.
TSTM INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT...AND
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS. EVEN IF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS...WHICH IS THE SCENARIO
ALSO PORTRAYED BY MOST RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
STILL...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR
30 KT AND AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS.
..ROGERS/GARNER.. 10/12/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 120554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/WRN CONUS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE ACQUIRING A
NEGATIVE TILT...WITH GRADUAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES OCCURRING
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL DIG SWD TOWARDS THE WRN GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SFC...SRN EXTENSION OF A CENTRAL CONUS COLD FRONT WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH RICH GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTING NWD ACROSS TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE ARKLATEX...
SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT FORMED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CNTRL CONUS SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH. IN IT/S
WAKE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
POSITIONED ACROSS SERN MO AND CNTRL AR...WITH THE FRONTAL SEGMENT
NEAR THE RED RIVER BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY THE AFTERNOON. A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE PRESENT S OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT
THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS INVOF THE FRONT...BUT WITHIN POCKETS OF
STRONGER HEATING THE AIR MASS MAY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/ESPECIALLY ACROSS N TX/ SHOULD SFC TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID-UPPER
80S F.
TSTM INITIATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT...AND
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS. EVEN IF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS...WHICH IS THE SCENARIO
ALSO PORTRAYED BY MOST RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE.
STILL...AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY ANY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES NEAR
30 KT AND AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS.
..ROGERS/GARNER.. 10/12/2013
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1965
ACUS11 KWNS 120447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120447
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...E/NE OK...SE KS...SW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120447Z - 120645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS SE KS AND W CENTRAL MO...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN SE KS IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED FROM ERN
OK. THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 35 KT LLJ...AND RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS ERN
OK. LARGER-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PEAK IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES
JUST NW OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND BEFORE THE LLJ VEERS/WEAKENS.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY IN THE WARM SECTOR
/MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
WATCH.
..THOMPSON/BROYLES.. 10/12/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34419562 34489626 34979667 35999658 36919621 37829552
38359472 38369416 37989384 37469392 36479445 34629501
34419562
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120447
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120645-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...E/NE OK...SE KS...SW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 120447Z - 120645Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS SE KS AND W CENTRAL MO...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN SE KS IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED FROM ERN
OK. THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 35 KT LLJ...AND RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS ERN
OK. LARGER-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PEAK IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES
JUST NW OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND BEFORE THE LLJ VEERS/WEAKENS.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY IN THE WARM SECTOR
/MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
WATCH.
..THOMPSON/BROYLES.. 10/12/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34419562 34489626 34979667 35999658 36919621 37829552
38359472 38369416 37989384 37469392 36479445 34629501
34419562
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KLWX [120442]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KLWX 120442
LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1242 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM FLOOD 1 WSW BAILEYS CROSSROAD 38.85N 77.14W
10/11/2013 FAIRFAX VA 911 CALL CENTER
INTERSECTION OF COLUMBIA PIKE AND BLAIR RD WAS CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1300835
$$
JRK
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LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1242 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM FLOOD 1 WSW BAILEYS CROSSROAD 38.85N 77.14W
10/11/2013 FAIRFAX VA 911 CALL CENTER
INTERSECTION OF COLUMBIA PIKE AND BLAIR RD WAS CLOSED
DUE TO HIGH WATER
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1300835
$$
JRK
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KLWX [120437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KLWX 120437
LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1236 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1235 AM FLOOD 1 ESE BUCKEYSTOWN 39.33N 77.42W
10/12/2013 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
MICHAELS MILL RD CLOSED ALONG THE MONOCACY RIVER IN
BUCKEYSTOWN DUE TO FLOODING
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1300834
$$
CB
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LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1236 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1235 AM FLOOD 1 ESE BUCKEYSTOWN 39.33N 77.42W
10/12/2013 FREDERICK MD 911 CALL CENTER
MICHAELS MILL RD CLOSED ALONG THE MONOCACY RIVER IN
BUCKEYSTOWN DUE TO FLOODING
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1300834
$$
CB
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KLWX [120433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS51 KLWX 120433
LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1233 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1206 AM FLOOD 2 NE ROCKY RIDGE 39.62N 77.30W
10/12/2013 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
DRIVER PULLED FROM CAR AFTER CAR GOT STUCK IN HIGH
WATER FROM FLOODED MONOCACY RIVER ON MUMMA FORD RD
BRIDGE
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1300833
$$
CB
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To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
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LSRLWX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1233 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1206 AM FLOOD 2 NE ROCKY RIDGE 39.62N 77.30W
10/12/2013 CARROLL MD 911 CALL CENTER
DRIVER PULLED FROM CAR AFTER CAR GOT STUCK IN HIGH
WATER FROM FLOODED MONOCACY RIVER ON MUMMA FORD RD
BRIDGE
&&
EVENT NUMBER LWX1300833
$$
CB
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To unsubscribe from WX-LSR send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
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