DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120726
SWODY3
SPC AC 120725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN WRN U.S. SYNOPTIC TROUGH
WILL EJECT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY LATER MONDAY NIGHT. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW WILL LIFT NEWD
THROUGH NEB WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH
THE DRYLINE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT NWD
THROUGH KS AND SERN NEB

...CNTRL PLAINS AREA...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THIS PERIOD FROM TX THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN ZONE OF
DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT ATTENDING A
STRONG SLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD DURING THE
DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT WILL
LIKELY NEGATIVELY IMPACT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. IN WAKE OF EARLY
STORMS...A CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC WARMING MAY OCCUR AS LOW CLOUDS MIX
OUT IN DRY SLOT REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN/CNTRL NEB
SWD THROUGH WRN/CNTRL KS WITH AN AXIS OF MODEST /500-1000 J/KG/
MLCAPE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG SEWD SURGING
COLD FRONT AND ALONG DRYLINE-COLD FRONT MERGER WHERE STRONG /45-50
KT/ VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD
THROUGH CNTRL NEB AND KS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IF DISCRETE STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG DRYLINE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS AND CONDITIONAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT IMPOSED BY EXPECTED ONGOING STORMS ALONG WARM
CONVEYOR BELT...WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY
2 UPDATE.

..DIAL.. 10/12/2013

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