KLBF [220227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 220227
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
927 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM HAIL TAYLOR 41.77N 99.38W
09/21/2008 E1.00 INCH LOUP NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

TKECK

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KABQ [220149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 220149
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
749 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL 6 WNW ABBOTT 36.33N 104.36W
09/21/2008 E0.75 INCH COLFAX NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

34

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KLBF [220117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 220117
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
817 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0816 PM HAIL 14 SSE BREWSTER 41.75N 99.76W
09/21/2008 E0.88 INCH BLAINE NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

TKECK

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KLBF [220051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 220051
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
750 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL 5 SSW BREWSTER 41.87N 99.90W
09/21/2008 E0.88 INCH BLAINE NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

JSWEET

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KBIS [220044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 220044
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
743 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM HAIL 1 ENE NEW ENGLAND 46.54N 102.85W
09/21/2008 E1.00 INCH HETTINGER ND TRAINED SPOTTER

GROUND NEARLY WHITE WITH MAINLY DIME SIZE HAIL. BEGAN AT
730 PM CDT AND STILL HAILING AT 740 PM CDT.

&&

$$

SWICHE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220040
SWODY1
SPC AC 220037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL AND WRN NEB...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH FROM SW ND
INTO CNTRL SD. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE ERN
DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA AND THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED THIS EVENING. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS WRN NEB...SW SD AND FAR SE WY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING ALONG A MOIST AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F. RUC
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS GREATER IN THIS AREA ESPECIALLY IN
CNTRL NEB WHERE SEVERAL STRONG SFC-BASED STORMS ARE LOCATED. THE
LATEST LBF 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ALONG WITH
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT WITH HAIL
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AS THE ACTIVITY BECOMES ELEVATED THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 09/22/2008

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KCYS [212346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 212346
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
546 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 23 S ALLIANCE 41.77N 102.87W
09/21/2008 M0.75 INCH MORRILL NE PUBLIC

DIME TO PENNY HAIL. 0.7 INCH PRECIP 445 TO 515 PM

&&

$$

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KGID [212343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 212343
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
642 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM HAIL FARNAM 40.71N 100.21W
09/21/2008 E0.88 INCH DAWSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

A FEW NICKEL SIZE BUT MAINLY PEA SIZE

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KLBF [212334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 212334
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HAIL 10 W EUSTIS 40.66N 100.22W
09/21/2008 E0.88 INCH FRONTIER NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

JSWEET

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KUNR [212322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 212322
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
521 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM HAIL 11 NNW PORCUPINE 43.38N 102.42W
09/21/2008 E0.75 INCH SHANNON SD CO-OP OBSERVER

IN ADDITION TO HAIL 0.71 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HALF
HOUR.

&&

$$

WETENKAMP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2273

ACUS11 KWNS 212252
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212251
NEZ000-SDZ000-220015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0551 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN SD...WRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212251Z - 220015Z

IT APPEARS THAT A WW MAY NOT BE NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SCATTERED ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE CELLS COULD
STILL GET A BOOST AS THEY SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO A STRONGER AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
BUT...ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING TO THE REAR OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE NOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
DAKOTAS. AS THIS MOTION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES...MID-LEVEL
WARMING COUPLED WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN INCREASING INHIBITION TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AND...IT
IS NOT CLEAR ONGOING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PERSIST MUCH
BEYOND 00-02Z. UNTIL THEN...THOUGH...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

..KERR.. 09/21/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

43300266 43720269 44000193 43520124 43000081 42640063
41660059 41010137 41120207 41650268

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KCYS [212246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 212246
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
446 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 9 N ANGORA 42.00N 103.10W
09/21/2008 E0.75 INCH MORRILL NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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KCYS [212233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 212233
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
433 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 NW ALLIANCE 42.20N 103.01W
09/21/2008 BOX BUTTE NE AIRPLANE PILOT

&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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KCYS [212229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 212229
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
429 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 7 NE BRIDGEPORT 41.74N 103.00W
09/21/2008 MORRILL NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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KCYS [212226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 212226
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
426 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL 20 WSW ALLIANCE 41.99N 103.23W
09/21/2008 E1.75 INCH BOX BUTTE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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KCYS [212146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 212146
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
346 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 5 NE SCOTTSBLUFF 41.92N 103.59W
09/21/2008 E0.88 INCH SCOTTS BLUFF NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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KSGF [212109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 212109
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
408 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 E WILLOW SPRINGS 36.99N 91.84W
09/19/2008 HOWELL MO AMATEUR RADIO

40 FOOT TREE SNAPPED THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY UP FELL
ON POWER LINES. TIME APPROXIMATED. DELAYED REPORT FROM
FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

JSS

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KSGF [212108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 212108
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
407 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 7 E WILLOW SPRINGS 36.99N 91.84W
09/19/2008 E1.00 INCH HOWELL MO AMATEUR RADIO

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES.
TIME APPROXIMATED. DELAYED REPORT FROM FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

JSS

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KCYS [212038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 212038
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
238 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL MORRILL 41.96N 103.92W
09/21/2008 E0.50 INCH SCOTTS BLUFF NE COUNTY OFFICIAL

HEAVY RAIN

&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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KLOT [212036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 212036
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
336 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0334 PM HEAVY RAIN N OTTAWA 41.35N 88.84W
09/21/2008 M1.30 INCH LA SALLE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR INTERSTATE 80 AND ILLINOIS ROUTE 23. 1.30 INCHES IN
APPROXIMATELY 30 MINUTES.

&&

$$

RATZER

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KCHS [212031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 212031
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
430 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0142 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
09/21/2008 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

A HIGH TIDE LEVEL OF 7.03 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WAS
MEASURED BY THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION ON
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

&&

$$

JAQ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 212002
SWODY1
SPC AC 211959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY DAY TSTMS/BULK OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL SD/NORTHERN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...GREATER INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION
FARTHER WEST WILL LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF A HIGH
PLAINS LEE TROUGH...WITH TOWERING CU/TSTMS EVIDENT AT MID AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WY/NORTHEAST CO FRONTRANGE. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...ATOP UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S F DEWPOINTS ALONG/EAST OF THE
LEE TROUGH...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 750-1000
J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRENGTHING FLOW ALOFT...AS REFLECTED BY
PROFILERS FROM MEDICINE BOW WY/PLATTEVILLE CO...AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME
SUPERCELLS /MOST LIKELY WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB/ CAPABLE
OF SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. A SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY
DEVELOP EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEB
THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM INFORMATION SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272.

...IL/IN...
MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND MORE RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REFLECTS A RESIDUAL UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ST LOUIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -16C AT
500 MB/ ATOP A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE A
LOCALIZED/PULSE-TYPE HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS THROUGH
AROUND SUNSET.

..GUYER.. 09/21/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2272

ACUS11 KWNS 211951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211950
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WY AND NE CO THROUGH WRN NEB AND SW SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211950Z - 212215Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY INCREASE
FROM SERN WY THROUGH WRN NEB...NE CO AND SW SD NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS
TIME...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

A LEE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WRN SD SWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO ERN CO.
MODIFIED CP AIR WITH 50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED NWD
THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN AREA OF CLOUDS AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM CNTRL SD THROUGH N CNTRL NEB
WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ATTENDING A NEWD EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
TIMING OF THIS IMPULSE HAS NOT BEEN OPTIMAL...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
DESTABILIZING IN ITS WAKE...AND SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER
SERN WY. THESE STORMS HAVE FORMED WHERE THE CAP HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND MIXING WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S
RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG.
NEVERTHELESS...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BULK SHEAR FROM 30-40
KT WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION AND A THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED IN MOIST AXIS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
ACTIVITY FROM SW SD THROUGH WRN NEB AND NE CO WHERE HEATING HAS BEEN
DELAYED BY EARLIER CLOUDS. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES
TO WARM...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR STORMS
TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE MOIST AXIS. NEW
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG LEE TROUGH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 09/21/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

43290225 42180206 40810216 40410291 40800443 42620420
43920380 44080275

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211628
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND AFFECT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN SD/NEB AND EASTERN WY. HOWEVER...THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING THE MORNING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXIT AREA AND ALLOW FOR RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ITS WAKE ALONG THE WY/SD/NEB BORDER.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 1000 J/KG AND
ONLY A WEAK CAP. LOW AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE RISK OF
SUPERCELLS /3KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50
KNOTS/. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THIS REGION WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE. SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THREAT IS UNCERTAIN INTO EASTERN
CO...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS COULD
OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PALMER RIDGE. THE THREAT ON THE NORTH
EDGE OVER ND WILL BE LIMITED BY INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.

..HART/JEWELL.. 09/21/2008

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KMEG [211456]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 211456
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0935 AM FLASH FLOOD PARAGOULD 36.06N 90.51W
09/21/2008 GREENE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODED ROADS IN PARAGOULD. ALSO
REPORTS OF WATER COMING CLOSE TO HOUSES.

&&

$$

CCD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211257
SWODY1
SPC AC 211254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WRN WY TO WRN MT THIS
MORNING WILL EJECT NEWD OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT...WHILE AN UPSTREAM WAVE OFF THE ORE/NW CA COASTS MOVES EWD
TO NRN NV BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EWD FROM ERN MT/WY TO THE WRN DAKOTAS/NEB BY TONIGHT...WITH
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE INVOF NW SD. THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE
APPROACH OF THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HELP MAINTAIN A 35-50
KT SLY LLJ ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE LOW-LEVEL SLY/SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL
TRANSPORT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 55-60 F NWD BENEATH A PLUME OF
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE NRN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN RANGE OF
75-80 F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY /ESPECIALLY OVER
WRN SD AND NEB/ WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHILE THE LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A COUPLE OF
CLUSTERS BY THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
WAA...THOUGH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO REDUCE THE SEVERE
STORM THREAT OVERNIGHT.

...ELSEWHERE...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FROM
MO/IL SWD TO LA/MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH AND A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. A PLUME OF RICHER
MOISTURE EXTENDS ENEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN GULF OF MEXICO TO
FL...ALONG AND S OF A RESIDUAL/DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITHIN THIS MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER FL.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 09/21/2008

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KDVN [211002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 211002
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
501 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM TSTM WND DMG STRONGHURST 40.75N 90.90W
09/20/2008 HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

DELAYED REPORT. A WIND GUST MEASURING 68 MPH BLEW DOWN A
SMALL TREE IN STRONGHURST.

&&

$$

14

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210832
SWOD48
SPC AC 210831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...

LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE MOST
DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURE...NAMELY THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
U.S. AND ITS SUBSEQUENT NEWD MOVEMENT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE AN ACTIVE WLY
CURRENT OF HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A PARADE OF SHORTWAVES
NEAR/NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS FAST FLOW REGIME WILL
MAKE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT TIMING/LOCATION OF NARROW
WEDGES OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WHERE THEY MAY ENHANCE DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER SHEAR. SEVERE PREDICTABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210714
SWODY3
SPC AC 210712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY...

LATEST GFS MODEL RUN IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND STRONGER WITH NRN
PLAINS TROUGH TUESDAY. STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
ROTATE INTO MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO EARLY...THEN A SECONDARY SPEED MAX
SHOULD KICK EWD LATE WHICH SHOULD NUDGE TRAILING SFC FRONT EAST
ACROSS MN/NWRN IA INTO NEB. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM ADVECTION
WILL PLAY AN INSTRUMENTAL ROLE IN EARLY DAY CONVECTION. IN
FACT...ONE OR MORE MCS/S COULD BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH
SHOULD IMPACT BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEAR THE MS RIVER. IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY THROUGH MID DAY THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING NEAR THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD
REMOVE CONVECTION INHIBITION THAT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT WIND SHIFT. A FEW ROBUST
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A NARROW AXIS OF INCREASED BUOYANCY
FROM NERN NEB...NEWD INTO NWRN WI IN THE WAKE OF ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY SEEMS
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING SLIGHT
RISK DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
REDUCED INSTABILITY DUE TO EARLY-MID DAY THUNDERSTORMS.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 210546
SWODY2
SPC AC 210545

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

NRN GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO EJECT NEWD INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON...A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER
MODEL RUNS...ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY PEAK
HEATING. UNDOUBTEDLY...LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS WILL BECOME
FOCUSED/SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING DEEP CONVECTION AS 60KT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX SPREADS ACROSS SERN WY AND INTENSIFIES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE THE ABSENCE OF A HIGHLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATEST
THINKING IS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
WRN HIGH PLAINS WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR MOIST
CONVECTION. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SUPERCELLS...SHOULD
DEVELOP AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ALONG
ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EAST INTO MORE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH MARGINALLY SO...CLOUD BASES SHOULD LOWER AND
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST FROM WCNTRL NEB...NWD
INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT SHOULD BE
INVOLVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THERE SHOULD BE LINEAR GROWTH ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AS IT SPREADS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY
LATE...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE INTENSITY WILL DROP MARKEDLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS BUOYANCY BECOMES AN ISSUE.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210535
SWODY1
SPC AC 210532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO
THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
ERN MT AND ERN WY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
INCREASE MOISTURE NNWWD INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
REACHING THE MID 50S F TO NEAR 60 F FROM ERN CO NWD INTO THE WRN
DAKOTAS. POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE ECNTRL DAKOTAS
BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AS A
MID-LEVEL JET MOVES NEWD AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 00Z MONDAY IN NE CO AND WRN NEB SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS VERTICAL SHEAR NWD INTO THE
WRN DAKOTAS. THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14C SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE THE STRONGEST. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE STEEP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE BY MID-EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND
CONVECTION BECOMES ELEVATED.

..BROYLES/SMITH.. 09/21/2008

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