DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190051
SWODY1
SPC AC 190049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL...

A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH
MONROE AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS TONIGHT. 00Z MIA SOUNDING INDICATES
THAT THE AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH A PW OF AROUND 2
INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG. THIS MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SOME MIDLEVEL ROTATION WITH THE EARLIER
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.

WHILE THE GENERAL TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN FAVORABLY
INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR SRN PENINSULA.

..MEAD.. 04/19/2010

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KCRP [190016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 190016
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
716 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0704 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 SW KAMAY 28.60N 96.76W
04/18/2010 CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL REPORTS OF MULTIPLE FUNNEL CLOUDS WEST OF PORT
LAVACA NEAR THE GREEN LAKE AREA. THESE FUNNELS WERE
LIKELY THE RESULT OF FORMING LANDSPOUTS.

&&

$$

GRANTHAM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0323

ACUS11 KWNS 182259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182258
FLZ000-190030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TIP OF FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182258Z - 190030Z

AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SRN TIP OF
THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS TIME THE
DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A WW. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

EARLY THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVELY MODIFIED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
JUST NORTH OF MIAMI WWD THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA.
CONVECTION...SOME WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...IS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE ZONE OF LIFT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.
ACTIVITY HAS LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING SUGGESTING UPDRAFTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY VERY DEEP OR ROBUST. HOWEVER...A BELT OF 30-35 KT FLOW
ATTENDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE PENINSULA IS
RESULTING IN 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO
REMAINS POSSIBLE IN A NARROW ZONE AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE RESULTING IN
LARGER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS THAN FARTHER SOUTH IN WARM SECTOR. THREAT
DIMINISHES WITH NWD EXTENT FROM THE BOUNDARY AS THE CONVECTION
BECOMES ELEVATED AND WEAKENS UPON MOVING DEEPER INTO THE COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DIAL.. 04/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

LAT...LON 25888010 25588042 25478085 25788099 26078051 26298006
25888010

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KPUB [182229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 182229
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
428 PM MDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0411 PM HAIL 6 ESE FALCON 38.90N 104.51W
04/18/2010 M0.75 INCH EL PASO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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KPDT [182133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KPDT 182133
LSRPDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
233 PM PDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL 8 WSW PILOT ROCK 45.45N 119.00W
04/17/2010 E1.00 INCH UMATILLA OR NWS EMPLOYEE

OBSERVER RELAYED A MESSAGE TO A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EMPLOYEE ABOUT HAIL THE DIAMETER OF A QUARTER WAS ON
GROUND.

0553 PM HAIL 10 NW PILOT ROCK 45.58N 118.98W
04/17/2010 E1.00 INCH UMATILLA OR PUBLIC

GENERAL PUBLIC CALLED IN AND REPORTED HEAVY HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. THIS OCCURRED IN UMATILLA COUNTY
NOT WASCO COUNTY.

0615 PM HAIL 4 SSE PENDLETON 45.62N 118.80W
04/17/2010 E0.50 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH HAIL WAS FALLING AT THE TIME
OF OBSERVATION.

0630 PM HAIL 5 ESE PENDLETON 45.64N 118.71W
04/17/2010 E0.25 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF HAIL FALLING. LARGEST HAIL SIZE IS ONE QUARTER OF
AN INCH.

0630 PM HAIL 1 E PENDLETON 45.67N 118.80W
04/17/2010 E0.75 INCH UMATILLA OR NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE RELAYED A MESSAGE FROM A HAM RADIO OPERATOR
ABOUT DIME SIZED HAIL OCCURRING.

0635 PM HAIL 4 W CAYUSE 45.67N 118.65W
04/17/2010 E0.75 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY HAIL ABOUT THE SIZE OF A DIME IN DIAMETER WAS
FALLING.

0705 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 E PENDLETON 45.67N 118.78W
04/17/2010 M0.53 INCH UMATILLA OR PUBLIC

0.53 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER 20 MINUTES.

0705 PM HAIL 4 SW ATHENA 45.77N 118.56W
04/17/2010 E0.50 INCH UMATILLA OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER FROM ADAMS REPORTED ONE HALF INCH HAIL.

&&

$$

DWEBER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181921
SWODY1
SPC AC 181920

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS REGION SUCH THAT NO CHANGES ARE
NEEDED IN THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES. FOR ADDITIONAL MESOSCALE
DETAILS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 322.

..PETERS.. 04/18/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010/

...S FL AND SE TX TODAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SRN STREAM FROM
THE SW STATES/NRN MEXICO EWD TO FL...AND A MORE PRONOUNCED NRN
STREAM FROM THE PAC NW TO CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER THE MIDDLE TX
COAST...AND A DOWNSTREAM WAVE IS EJECTING NEWD FROM THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO TO S FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SMALL
INLAND WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE TX...AS WELL AS ACROSS S FL. LOCAL
VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR ROTATING STORMS ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SE GULF WAVE. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND
A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM MT TO NM...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM CENTRAL MT SWD TO NM. DESPITE MARGINAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MT...A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED/HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER S...AN INITIAL MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE WY/CO HIGH
PLAINS TO WRN SD/NEB/KS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL
HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY E OF
THE FRONT RANGE IN CO/NE NM. HERE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 35-40 F /BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5-8 C PER KM/ WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG
AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

WEAK SURFACE SELY FLOW BENEATH 20-30 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR HAIL AOA 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER IS SMALL GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE...SO NO HAIL
PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED IN THIS UPDATE.

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KCRP [181811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 181811
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
111 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SE ALICE 27.73N 98.04W
04/17/2010 JIM WELLS TX NWS EMPLOYEE

FARM TO MARKET ROAD 1930 FLOODED IN 3 PLACES...UP TO ONE
FOOT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

$$

RGASS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181730
SWODY2
SPC AC 181729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES NWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO THE HIGH
LATITUDES IS EXPECTED UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAY 2
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A SPLIT FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES INTO THROUGH MONDAY...AND RESULT
IN THE SWD AMPLIFICATION OF A DEEP GULF OF ALASKA CLOSED LOW INTO
THE ERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST. MEANWHILE...LOWER AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING A MORE PROMINENT IMPULSE AMPLIFIES AS IT APPROACHES THE
TN VALLEY. A COMPACT PACIFIC CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED AT
28N/129W...IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION ON DAY 2.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN CO
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NWD FROM ERN CO TO WRN SD AT 12Z MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ESEWD...EXTENDING FROM NERN CO TO CENTRAL NEB BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SLY WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NWD...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER-MID 40S BY
PEAK HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER /STEEP LAPSE RATES /8 C/KM/ SPREADING EWD OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING SEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF LEE
TROUGH...SECONDARY NEB BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW. DESPITE WEAK WINDS
AROUND 700 MB...SOME STRENGTHENING OF SLY FLOW /20-25 KT/ MONDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPENING ERN CO SURFACE LOW AND
BENEATH INCREASING NWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS /30-35 KT/ WILL RESULT IN
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT. THIS SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW WITH THIS
OUTLOOK...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK MOISTURE RETURN LIMITING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND HAIL SIZE TO GENERALLY BELOW 1 INCH.

..PETERS.. 04/18/2010

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0322

ACUS11 KWNS 181721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181720
FLZ000-181945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S FL AND KEYS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181720Z - 181945Z

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFT GUSTS APCHG SVR LIMITS.
SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELL EVOLUTION ALSO IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY INVOF
WARM FRONT OR SEA BREEZES WHERE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE
ENHANCED...IN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW LCL. THEREFORE...MRGL/CONDITIONAL
TORNADO POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS.

MID-UPPER TROUGH OVER EXTREME E-CENTRAL GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EJECT NEWD TOWARD W-CENTRAL/SW FL COAST. VIS IMAGERY AND SFC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS TRANSITION FROM OVC TO BKN CLOUD
COVER...GENERALLY CORRESPONDING TO SFC WARM FRONT...MOVING NWD
THROUGH CORRIDOR FROM NEAR MARCO ESEWD ACROSS SRN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NWD ACROSS I-75 THROUGH MIDAFTERNOON...BENEATH
DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT PRECEDES MID-UPPER TROUGH. SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE
SLOWLY EWD TOWARD WATERS BETWEEN MARCO-EYW. DESPITE SFC FLOW NOT
BEING AS BACKED AS INVOF WARM FRONT...INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WITH
SLY EXTENT IN WARM SECTOR WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OVER MOST OF S FL AND KEYS. EXPECT ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH -- E.G. 30-40 KT AT 500 MB -- TO
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50 KT.

AS WARM FRONT MOVES NWD...INCREASING INLAND AREA WILL HEAT TO ITS
S...CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASING BUOYANCY AND NEGLIGIBLE MLCINH.
MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUCH DESTABILIZATION
AND SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70 F WILL OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ENOUGH TO YIELD 500-1000 J/KG PRE-STORM MLCAPE. LIMITING FACTORS
INCLUDE LACK OF GREATER CAPE...WEAKNESSES IN 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS...AND
RATHER DIFFUSE FOCI FOR ASCENT S OF WARM FRONT. MESOBETA SCALE TO
STORM-SCALE BOUNDARY/CELL INTERACTIONS MAY BE MOST CRITICAL FOR
LOCALIZED SVR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 04/18/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON 25538016 25238030 24958054 24698099 24628132 24598149
24558164 24528180 24518198 24578222 24608210 24598173
24708168 24768149 24808128 24738113 24838086 24928087
25028102 25188115 25238121 25338113 25328105 25398112
25508121 25808139 25918163 25818168 26078180 26328184
26478192 26498083 26388003 25538016

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181615
SWODY1
SPC AC 181614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL AND SE TX TODAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A SRN STREAM FROM
THE SW STATES/NRN MEXICO EWD TO FL...AND A MORE PRONOUNCED NRN
STREAM FROM THE PAC NW TO CENTRAL CANADA TO NEW ENGLAND. WITHIN THE
SRN STREAM...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER THE MIDDLE TX
COAST...AND A DOWNSTREAM WAVE IS EJECTING NEWD FROM THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO TO S FL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SMALL
INLAND WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE TX...AS WELL AS ACROSS S FL. LOCAL
VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOW A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE FOR ROTATING STORMS ACROSS S FL IN ADVANCE OF
THE SE GULF WAVE. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND
A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WITHIN THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...THE STRONGEST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

...HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM MT TO NM...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM CENTRAL MT SWD TO NM. DESPITE MARGINAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MT...A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH
THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND PROMOTE AT LEAST ISOLATED/HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER S...AN INITIAL MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING E OF THE WY/CO HIGH
PLAINS TO WRN SD/NEB/KS. HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL
HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY E OF
THE FRONT RANGE IN CO/NE NM. HERE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 35-40 F /BENEATH MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5-8 C PER KM/ WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-750 J/KG
AND ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

WEAK SURFACE SELY FLOW BENEATH 20-30 KT WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR HAIL AOA 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER IS SMALL GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE...SO NO HAIL
PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED IN THIS UPDATE.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/18/2010

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KBRO [181335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 181335
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
834 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HEAVY RAIN MCALLEN 26.22N 98.24W
04/17/2010 M3.40 INCH HIDALGO TX CO-OP OBSERVER

3.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL RECORDED BY MCALLEN CO-OP
OBSERVER DURING SATURDAY EVENING/S CONVECTION. MOST FELL
WITHIN A LITTLE MORE THAN AN HOUR.

&&

$$

HART

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KBRO [181316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 181316
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
816 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 SSE SAN BENITO 26.07N 97.60W
04/16/2010 M4.40 INCH CAMERON TX PUBLIC

4.40 INCHES OF RAIN DURING FRIDAY EVENING/S CONVECTION.
REPORTED BY COCORAHS OBSERVER. TIME OF EVENT IS APPROX.

&&

$$

HART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181223
SWODY1
SPC AC 181221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN FL PENINSULA...
SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING SW FL WILL CONTINUE
ENEWD AND SLOWLY LOSE AMPLITUDE TODAY AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE SRN FL
PENINSULA...WHILE ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR SRN FL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AIR
MASS WILL REMAIN DEEPLY MOIST WITH VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GREATLY LIMITING OVERALL INSTABILITY DESPITE PRESENCE OF
MID 60S-LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEW POINTS. HOWEVER...INCREASED FORCING
FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION
WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL STORMS WITHIN THE MOIST AND WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MASS RESPONSE TO WEAK SURFACE LOW UNDER MODEST
WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 150
M2/S2 BY THE EARLY EVENING...ALONG WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR
EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS WHICH MAY
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW.

...HIGH PLAINS...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LOW-
TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 500-700 J/KG. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB.
NONETHELESS...ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY OWING TO THE
COMBINATION OF TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THE PROSPECT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE SMALL AT THIS TIME.

...TX/LA COAST...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SRN
STREAM IMPULSE LOSES AMPLITUDE ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...MODEST
INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON /DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES/
WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LOW.
ALTHOUGH...A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTS.

..EVANS/STOPPKOTTE.. 04/18/2010

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KBRO [181126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBRO 181126
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
625 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 ENE MISSION 26.22N 98.29W
04/17/2010 M3.74 INCH HIDALGO TX PUBLIC

3.74 INCHES OF RAIN. PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS REPORTED WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN BETWEEN 710 AND 810
PM. REPORT VIA WEBREPORT/ESPOTTER.

&&

$$

HART

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180830
SWOD48
SPC AC 180830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY THIS
FORECAST...BUT SUFFICIENT SIMILARITY STILL EXISTS TO MAINTAIN
CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER
MIDWEEK /I.E. THU. APR. 22/. WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME HIGH
PLAINS SEVERE POTENTIAL ON THE AFTERNOON OF DAY 4 /WED. APR.
21/...STRONGER SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE LARGE/APPROACHING
UPPER SYSTEM DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH
MORE LIMITED/ISOLATED THREAT.

BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...THE LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH PROGRESS
SUFFICIENTLY EWD IN BOTH MODELS TO RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS INVOF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ALONG THE LEE TROUGH -- RESULTING IN LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE
POTENTIAL. WITH LIKELIHOOD OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN COMMENCING
BY MIDWEEK...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA
FOR THU. APR. 22 /DAY 5/.

WHILE BOTH MODELS SUGGEST SLOW EWD PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND -- LIKELY INCLUDING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
WITHIN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PRECLUDE HIGHLIGHTING SPECIFIC AREAS
OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND DAY 5.

..GOSS.. 04/18/2010

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KPUB [180738]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 180738
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
137 AM MDT SUN APR 18 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 AM SNOW LEADVILLE 39.25N 106.29W
04/18/2010 M2.7 INCH LAKE CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR APRIL 17TH WAS 2.7 INCHES WITH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.31 INCHES

&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180725
SWODY3
SPC AC 180724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD OVER THE WRN U.S.
THIS PERIOD...MOVING ONSHORE EARLY AND THEN CONTINUING SEWD ACROSS
THE CA/NV REGION AS A CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS....AN ASSOCIATED/STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST.

DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WEST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LEE TROUGHING...AND EWD INTO PARTS OF
KS/NEB INVOF A SEWD-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ANY SEVERE
THREAT THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...AND LIKELY CONFINED
TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND VICINITY INVOF THE LEE TROUGH. WHILE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...WITH
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION AND APPRECIABLE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TIED TO MORE SUBTLE/EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE
FEATURES...WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING ANY SEVERE PROBABILITIES
THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 04/18/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180524
SWODY1
SPC AC 180522

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A HIGH LATITUDE...LARGE AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE
MAINTAINED ACROSS NRN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD... FEATURING
DEEP UPPER LOWS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND
RIDGING OVER CNTRL CANADA. FARTHER S...A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SUBTROPICAL JET WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND TX EWD THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND SRN FL. A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
SUBTROPICAL AIR STREAM /NOW NEAR CANCUN MEXICO/ WILL TRANSLATE NEWD
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

...SRN FL PENINSULA...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE SERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY ONTO THE FAR SRN PENINSULA OR THE KEYS LATE
TONIGHT. THE MASS RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL SERVE TO
MAINTAIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE AREA WHERE DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 F WILL BE COMMON. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN RATHER WEAK...THIS MOISTURE WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO
POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE WILL REACH
1000 J/KG.

INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
SYSTEM IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL STORMS WITHIN THE
MOIST AND WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. STEADILY STRENGTHENING
MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL YIELD 30-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 100 M2/S2. AS
SUCH...SETUP MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO. THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW.

...ERN WY/NEB PNHDL SWD THROUGH THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO CNTRL/ERN
NM...

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LOW-
TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 500-700 J/KG. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF
MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND NEB.
NONETHELESS...ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY OWING TO THE
COMBINATION OF TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY STALLED IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THE PROSPECT FOR
ANY SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE SMALL AT THIS TIME.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 04/18/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180506
SWODY2
SPC AC 180505

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GENERAL LONG-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST THE
CONUS...AS A TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE NORTHEAST AND A SECOND
DIGS SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK TOWARD THE W COAST. WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE RIDGE HOWEVER...SEVERAL RELATIVELY WEAK/SMALL-SCALE
TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE U.S. THIS PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FAR WRN
U.S. AHEAD OF THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...WHILE WEAK LEE TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW INVOF S FL WHICH
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

...HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN WY/SWRN SD SWD INTO NERN NM...
A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE LEE TROUGH...AS MODEST
INSTABILITY /AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ EVOLVES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING.

WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED /NEAR 30 KT/ MID-LEVEL WNWLYS -- ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTLE WAVE -- PROGGED TO SPREAD ATOP LOW-LEVEL
SELYS...SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUSTAINED/STRONGER CELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE AREA THIS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND/HAIL.

..GOSS.. 04/18/2010

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