Sunday, April 18, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190051
SWODY1
SPC AC 190049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN APR 18 2010

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...S FL...

A CONVECTIVELY-MODULATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING SWD THROUGH
MONROE AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS TONIGHT. 00Z MIA SOUNDING INDICATES
THAT THE AMBIENT AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH A PW OF AROUND 2
INCHES AND MLCAPE OF 1500 J/KG. THIS MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO SOME MIDLEVEL ROTATION WITH THE EARLIER
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.

WHILE THE GENERAL TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT MAY PERSIST WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN FAVORABLY
INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH
THE FAR SRN PENINSULA.

..MEAD.. 04/19/2010

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