DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180040
SWODY1
SPC AC 180038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PA NW...

WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS NOW MOVING INLAND ALONG THE WA/ORE
COAST WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY VEERING ACROSS THE REGION.
PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOIST ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING EAST OF THE CASCADES AND WILL PRIMARILY
EFFECT HIGHER INLAND AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 10/18/2009

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KMFR [180014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 180014
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
514 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0213 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
10/17/2009 M1.10 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

6 HOUR ACCUMULATION FROM 8AM TO 2PM

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KIWX [172212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 172212
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
612 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0606 PM HAIL 3 N BUFFALO 40.93N 86.75W
10/17/2009 E0.25 INCH PULASKI IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0900096

$$

NG

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KKEY [172043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 172043 CCA
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N MARATHON 24.73N 81.08W
10/17/2009 MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED 2 WATERSPOUTS NEAR MARATHON.
THE FIRST ONE WAS OBSERVED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE WATER
WITH A SPRAY RING. THE SECOND WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED 1
MILE NORTH OF GRASSY KEY AND EXTENDED HALF OF THE WAY TO
THE WATER. THESE WATERSPOUTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHOWER PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2115

ACUS11 KWNS 172042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172042
WAZ000-ORZ000-172245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN WASHINGTON INTO PARTS OF NW OREGON

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172042Z - 172245Z

THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY
NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE. WHILE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT A BROADLY
CYCLONIC 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING
ACROSS THE OREGON COAST INTO THE CASCADES. JUST OFF THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WIND FIELDS ARE INCREASING AS WELL
...BUT VEERING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ABOVE NEAR SURFACE
FLOW THAT REMAINS SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE WEST OF THE CASCADE
MOUNTAINS...AS A SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATES TOWARD VANCOUVER
ISLAND. RESULTANT HODOGRAPHS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...AND APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED SURFACE HEATING...RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE FRONTAL BAND HAS MOISTENED THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS NOW GENERALLY RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F. WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
COOLING /500 TEMPS AOB -20C/ AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION...DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE INITIATION OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME.
SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE PEAKING AROUND 500 J/KG OR LESS. BUT...THIS STILL
COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO. IF
THIS OCCURS...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL RANGES INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FROM NEAR PUGET SOUND
SOUTHWARD...PERHAPS AS FAR AS THE LOWER WILLAMETTE VALLEY.

..KERR.. 10/17/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON 48052415 48702368 48952245 48742157 47602152 46442198
45642217 44972260 44912327 45422387 46292389 47212421
47702421 48052415

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KKEY [172031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 172031
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
431 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM WATER SPOUT 1 N MARATHON 24.73N 81.08W
10/17/2009 MIDDLE KEYS IN MON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED 2 WATERSPOUTS NEAR MARATHON.
THE FIRST ONE WAS OBSERVED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE WATER
WITH A SPRAY RING. THE SECOND WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED 1
MILE NORTH OF GRASSY KEY AND EXTENDED HALF OF THE WAY TO
THE WEATER. THESE WATERSPOUTS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHOWER PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

$$

WHOVORKA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171958
SWODY1
SPC AC 171957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...
LATE MORNING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
COMPACT/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST...AND EXPECTED TO REACH SRN ALBERTA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
AT 19Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A MID LEVEL IMPULSE/CIRCULATION
CENTER LOCATED 250 W OTH IN BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH...WITH TRENDS
SUGGESTING FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REACH THE NWRN ORE/WRN WA COAST AFTER 21Z AND SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH 00-01Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
/-20 C AT 500 MB/. THIS COMBINED WITH 50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE LOW TOPPED WITH ROTATION. THIS OUTLOOK HAS
INTRODUCED A LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY GIVEN THAT NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAN WAS
PRESENT EARLIER TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT WHERE A COUPLE OF
HAIL REPORTS /ONE SEVERE/ OCCURRED SSW AND S OF SEA.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...INCLUDING LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL...
REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED STORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL IMPULSE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY COMBINED WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED A BROAD ZONE OF
SUBSIDENCE /LACK OF CLOUDS/ BETWEEN THE IMPULSE AND THE EXTENSIVE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS/EMBEDDED CONVECTION FROM JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST TO THE CASCADES. ALTHOUGH SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS
POSSIBLE AS THE CLEARING ZONE REACHES FAR NWRN ORE/SWRN WA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING
THE IMPULSE IS RESULTING IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR ENOUGH STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO SUPPORT INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009/

...PACIFIC NW...
A VERY MOIST...WARM CONVEYER BELT AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH
IS NOW SPREADING CONSIDERABLE PCPN ACROSS WRN WA/NWRN OR. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WIND
MAX AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
INLAND...CHANGING THE CHARACTER OF THE PCPN TO MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVED LIGHTNING THIS MORNING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.

THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY THIS EVENING MAINTAINING A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN
WA/NWRN OR...WHICH COUPLED WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG DEVELOPING W OF CASCADES.

GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC SHEAR OF 50-60KT...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH REGARDS TO ANY TORNADO THREAT...WHILE THE SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SEEM TO BE SUFFICIENT...THE LACK OF
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...WOULD LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
WHICH USUALLY PLAYS A ROLE IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS W OF THE
CASCADES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT IN THE 20Z OUTLOOK IF
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SEEM MORE FAVORABLE THAN NOW EXPECTED.

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KSEW [171753]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 171753
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1053 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1045 AM HAIL PUYALLUP 47.18N 122.28W
10/17/2009 E0.75 INCH PIERCE WA STORM CHASER

DIME SIZE HAIL FOR A COUPLE OF MINUTES AGO NEAR SOUTH
HILL.

&&

$$

CERNIGLIA

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KOKX [171744]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 171744
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
144 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM STORM SURGE FREEPORT 40.65N 73.58W
10/17/2009 M2.30 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

TIDE OBS 5.4 NGVD. FLOODING OF COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS
REPORTED.

0900 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 7 IN KEARNEY CLOSED DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING.

0900 AM STORM SURGE LINDENHURST 40.69N 73.37W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT SUFFOLK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED AROUND TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

1030 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

FISH HOUSE RD CLOSED DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING. SEVERAL CARS
WERE FLOATING AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS NEEDED TO
PERFORM WATER RESCUES.

1100 AM STORM SURGE 5 W STAMFORD 41.02N 73.66W
10/17/2009 E11.50 FT FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING REPORTED AT TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

$$

PB

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KKEY [171743]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 171743
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
143 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0118 PM WATER SPOUT 5 S BOCA CHICA 24.52N 81.70W
10/17/2009 GMZ054 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A LARGE WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED BY THE ON DUTY WEATHER
OBSERVER AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION ON BOCA CHICA KEY.
MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST WITH A DURATION OF 13 MINUTES.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KSEW [171735]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 171735
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1035 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1033 AM HAIL 3 SSW YELM 46.91N 122.64W
10/17/2009 M0.25 INCH THURSTON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED WITH THUNDERSTORM.

1033 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE FORKS 47.96N 124.38W
10/17/2009 M2.70 INCH CLALLAM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED IN LAST 18 HOURS.

&&

$$

DDAMICO

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KHNX [171720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 171720
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
1020 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 AM DENSE FOG VISALIA 36.33N 119.32W
10/17/2009 TULARE CA AWOS

VISIBILITY AT 1/4 MI OR LESS FROM 1255 AM THRU 0915 AM
PDT, EXCEPT BRIEFLY AT 3/4 MI FROM 0615 AM TO 0635 AM
PDT.

0253 AM DENSE FOG FRESNO 36.78N 119.79W
10/17/2009 FRESNO CA ASOS

SURFACE VISIBILITY AT 1/16 MI TO 1/8 MI FROM 253 AM THRU
853 AM PDT

0653 AM DENSE FOG MERCED 37.30N 120.48W
10/17/2009 MERCED CA ASOS

VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MI FROM 653 AM THRU 953 AM PDT.

0745 AM DENSE FOG 1 W FOWLER 36.62N 119.69W
10/17/2009 FRESNO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

VISIBILITY AROUND 300 FT.

0927 AM DENSE FOG HANFORD 36.33N 119.65W
10/17/2009 KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

VISIBILITY BETWEEN 300-500 FT.

&&

$$

BSO

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KSEW [171718]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 171718
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1018 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 N POULSBO 47.81N 122.66W
10/17/2009 M2.00 INCH KITSAP WA TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL AT 7 AM. STILL RAINING.

0736 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NE BELLINGHAM 48.80N 122.37W
10/17/2009 M2.39 INCH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL AT 7 AM. STILL RAINING.

0806 AM HEAVY RAIN 12 SW BREMERTON 47.43N 122.89W
10/17/2009 M2.69 INCH MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL AT 8 AM. STILL RAINING HARD.

0832 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 E SUDDEN VALLEY 48.72N 122.21W
10/17/2009 M2.14 INCH WHATCOM WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL AT 8 AM.

0838 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 S EDMONDS 47.77N 122.36W
10/17/2009 M1.53 INCH KING WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL AT 8 AM. STILL RAINING MODERATELY.

0854 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW ANACORTES 48.50N 122.66W
10/17/2009 M1.25 INCH SKAGIT WA TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT.

0857 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 SW MONTESANO 46.97N 123.65W
10/17/2009 M2.41 INCH GRAYS HARBOR WA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL AS OF 8 AM.

&&

$$

CERNIGLIA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171659
SWODY2
SPC AC 171658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE COMPACT/VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE PACIFIC NW TODAY
WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE FAR SRN EXTENT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES ON SUNDAY...WHILE A LARGER/AMPLIFYING PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAT LATE DAY 2. THE MORE SRN TRACK OF
THE LATTER SYSTEM AND EWD PROGRESSION OF LEAD IMPULSE WILL ACT TO
FURTHER BREAK DOWN THE WRN U.S. RIDGE...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN EXTENDING EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EWD...WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/TN VALLEY REGION BY
12Z MONDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG EAST
COAST WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER INLAND PRECLUDING A
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND OVER SERN AZ
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHERE RESPECTIVE WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES
AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN BOTH REGIONS SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF GENERAL
TSTM AREAS.

..PETERS.. 10/17/2009

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KOKX [171615]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KOKX 171615
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1215 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM STORM SURGE FREEPORT 40.65N 73.58W
10/17/2009 M2.30 FT NASSAU NY EMERGENCY MNGR

TIDE OBS 5.4 NGVD. FLOODING OF COMERCIAL BUILDINGS
REPORTED.

0900 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 7 IN KEARNEY CLOSED DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING.

0900 AM STORM SURGE LINDENHURST 40.69N 73.37W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT SUFFOLK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED AROUND TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

1030 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

FISH HOUSE RD CLOSED DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING. SEVERAL CARS
WERE FLOATING AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS NEEDED TO
PERFORM WATER RESCUES.

&&

$$

JST

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KKEY [171600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 171600
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1122 AM WATER SPOUT 10 N KEY WEST 24.70N 81.76W
10/17/2009 GMZ032 FL OTHER FEDERAL

A WATERSPOUT WAS OBSERVED BY A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EMPLOYEE AND AN AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLER AT THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THE WATERSPOUT FORMED IN A SW-NE
ORIENTED LINE OF CUMULUS OVER THE GULF WATERS. DURATION
10 MINUTES.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KOKX [171600]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 171600
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT

FISH HOUSE RD CLOSED DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING. SEVERAL CARS
WERE FLOATING AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS NEEDED TO
PERFORM WATER RESCUES.

&&

$$

PB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171554
SWODY1
SPC AC 171552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1052 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...
A VERY MOIST...WARM CONVEYER BELT AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH
IS NOW SPREADING CONSIDERABLE PCPN ACROSS WRN WA/NWRN OR. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL THE MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG WIND
MAX AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH
INLAND...CHANGING THE CHARACTER OF THE PCPN TO MORE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVED LIGHTNING THIS MORNING
OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.

THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING NEWD ACROSS VANCOUVER
ISLAND BY THIS EVENING MAINTAINING A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW OVER WRN
WA/NWRN OR...WHICH COUPLED WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING WILL
LEAD TO A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG DEVELOPING W OF CASCADES.

GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC SHEAR OF 50-60KT...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH REGARDS TO ANY TORNADO THREAT...WHILE THE SHEAR AND
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WOULD SEEM TO BE SUFFICIENT...THE LACK OF
FAVORABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...WOULD LIMIT THE EFFECTS OF TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT
WHICH USUALLY PLAYS A ROLE IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS W OF THE
CASCADES.

WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT IN THE 20Z OUTLOOK IF
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SEEM MORE FAVORABLE THAN NOW EXPECTED.

..HALES/SMITH.. 10/17/2009

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KOKX [171547]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 171547
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1146 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM STORM SURGE FREEPORT 40.65N 73.58W
10/17/2009 M2.30 FT NASSAU NY OTHER FEDERAL

TIDE OBS 5.4 NGVD.

0900 AM STORM SURGE LINDENHURST 40.69N 73.37W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT SUFFOLK NY EMERGENCY MNGR

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED AROUND TIME OF HIGH
TIDE.

&&

$$

JST

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KKEY [171419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 171419
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 AM WATER SPOUT 1 S KEY COLONY BEACH 24.71N 81.02W
10/17/2009 GMZ053 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 1 TO
1.5 MILES SOUTH OF KEY COLONY BEACH AT 937 AM EDT. THE
FUNNEL CLOUD THEN EXTENDED TO THE SEA SURFACE WITH A
VISIBLE SPRAY RING AT 946 AM EDT. THE WATERSPOUT DRIFTED
TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATED AT 948 AM EDT.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KJAX [171416]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 171416
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1016 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 S FLAGLER BEACH 29.35N 81.14W
10/16/2009 VOLUSIA FL PUBLIC

THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN A SMALL BARN AT A RESIDENCE
OFF OF HIGHWAY 1...JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. THE SMALL
BARN WAS BLOWN INTO A LARGER BARN. THE COST OF DAMAGE WAS
UNKNOWN. THE TIME OF THE EVENT WAS BASED ON RADAR
IMAGERY.

&&

$$

AENYEDI

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KJAN [171415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 171415
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
915 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0856 AM HAIL 1 NE BEEKMAN 32.93N 91.87W
10/15/2009 E0.88 INCH MOREHOUSE LA PUBLIC

NICKEL HAIL REPORTED NORTHEAST OF BEEKMAN.

1242 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N ST. JOSEPH 31.98N 91.24W
10/15/2009 TENSAS LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

STORAGE BUILDING ALONG HIGHWAY 65 DAMAGED.

1244 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N LAKE BRUIN 32.00N 91.26W
10/15/2009 E60.00 MPH TENSAS LA NWS STORM SURVEY

A NUMBER OF LARGE LIMBS AND SOME TREES DOWN ALONG THE
NORTHERN PART OF LAKE BRUIN...AND SOME DOWNED POWER
LINES...WERE DETERMINED TO BE THE RESULT OF STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS ESTIMATED AROUND 60 MPH.

1244 PM TORNADO 5 NW ST. JOSEPH 31.97N 91.30W
10/15/2009 F0 TENSAS LA NWS STORM SURVEY

EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN 5 MILES NW OF ST. JOSEPH AT 1244
PM CDT...LIFTING 4 MILES NW OF ST. JOSEPH AT 1245 PM CDT.
MOBILE HOME ROLLED OVER. SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF METAL
COMMERCIAL BUILDING BLOWN OUT...WITH SOME ROOF TILES
BLOWN OUT.

1245 PM TSTM WND DMG LAKE BRUIN 31.99N 91.26W
10/15/2009 TENSAS LA UTILITY COMPANY

POWERLINES DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST SIDES OF
LAKE BRUIN

1246 PM TSTM WND DMG LAKE BRUIN 31.99N 91.26W
10/15/2009 TENSAS LA PUBLIC

TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWN AT LAKE BRUIN GOLF AND COUNTRY
CLUB.

1250 PM FUNNEL CLOUD ST. JOSEPH 31.92N 91.24W
10/15/2009 TENSAS LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF REPORTS A POSSIBLE TORNADO IN ST. JOSEPH. NO
REPORTS OF DAMAGE AT THIS TIME.

0115 PM TSTM WND GST PORT GIBSON 31.96N 90.98W
10/15/2009 E60.00 MPH CLAIBORNE MS PUBLIC

0119 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N LORMAN 31.85N 91.05W
10/15/2009 JEFFERSON MS PUBLIC

A FEW TREES DOWN NEAR LORMAN.

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD SOMERSET 32.18N 91.23W
10/15/2009 TENSAS LA NWS STORM SURVEY

FIELDS ACROSS S MADISION AND N TENSAS PARISHES WERE
FLOODED. SUBSTANTIAL WATER WAS STILL ACROSS FIELDS FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

0333 PM HAIL 1 N TOPEKA 31.43N 90.19W
10/15/2009 E0.75 INCH LAWRENCE MS PUBLIC

0443 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 W COLUMBIA 31.26N 90.00W
10/15/2009 MARION MS PUBLIC

NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN.

1050 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W GOSS 31.36N 89.92W
10/15/2009 MARION MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A PORTION OF RIVER RD WAS FLOODED.

&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [171412]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 171412
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
912 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1050 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W GOSS 31.36N 89.92W
10/15/2009 MARION MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A PORTION OF RIVER RD WAS FLOODED.

0200 PM FLASH FLOOD SOMERSET 32.18N 91.23W
10/15/2009 TENSAS LA NWS STORM SURVEY

FIELDS ACROSS S MADISION AND N TENSAS PARISHES WERE
FLOODED. SUBSTANTIAL WATER WAS STILL ACROSS FIELDS FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

$$

CME

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KCHS [171325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171325
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
925 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/17/2009 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

CHARLESTON PILOT BOAT OFFICE REPORTS A FEW INCHES OF SALT
WATER IN THEIR PARKING LOT ON CONCORD STREET.

&&

$$

VB

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KCHS [171320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KCHS 171320
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
920 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/17/2009 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

NOS TIDE GAGE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR REACHED 7.29 FEET MLLW
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS AROUND 7.0 FEET MLLW.

&&

$$

VB

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KOKX [171310]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 171310
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
910 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ROUTE 7 IN KEARNEY CLOSED DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

$$

PB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171301
SWODY1
SPC AC 171259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR
48...WITH RDG OVER THE RCKYS/WRN PLNS...AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE APPALACHIANS. BACK WEST...POTENT E PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
NOW CENTERED NEAR 43N/133W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD TO THE SE AREA
BY THIS EVE AND INTO SRN AB BY 12Z SUN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT NOW OFF THE ORE CST SHOULD SWEEP INLAND ACROSS WRN WA/ORE
EARLY THIS AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THOSE STATES BY EARLY
TONIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW...
SCTD CG LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING IN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OFF THE NRN ORE CST.
COMBINATION OF FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/...AND
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUGGEST THAT THE LIKELY ELEVATED
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW ORE AND WRN WA LATER THIS MORNING AS
TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD.

AN OUTSIDE CHANCE EXISTS FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO IN NW ORE/WRN WA...IF
FRONTOGENETIC UPLIFT SUFFICIENTLY INCREASES TO SUPPORT A BAND OF
FORCED...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIMITED...THUS OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW.

IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN DEEP/COOL CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WRN WA
THIS AFTN AND EVE. COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES WITH NIGHTFALL AND
CONTINUED NE MOVEMENT OF UPR VORT.

...S FL...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FL
TODAY AS ERN U.S. TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...ISOLD STORMS
COULD FORM THROUGH THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E CST.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/17/2009

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KCHS [171237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 171237
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
837 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0754 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/17/2009 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

NOS TIDE GAGE IN CHARLESTON HARBOR REACHED 7.27 FEET MLLW
DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
TYPICALLY BEGINS AROUND 7.0 FEET MLLW.

&&

$$

VB

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KMHX [171126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 171126
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
725 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM STORM SURGE RODANTHE 35.61N 75.46W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT DARE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

ROUTE 12 CLOSED AT MIRLO BEACH DUE TO OCEAN OVERWASH.

&&

$$

BCULLEN

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170850
SWOD48
SPC AC 170849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES TUESDAY/DAY 4 AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 5. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE EXIT REGION OF A
POWERFUL LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EWD WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION APPEARS
GREATEST FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY SSWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS OR
OZARKS. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THURSDAY/DAY 6
WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY POSSIBLY SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR AND A LARGE
SEVERE THREAT AREA IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 10/17/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170713
SWODY3
SPC AC 170712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
MONDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS
VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AS A
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES BEHIND THE EXITING RIDGE. NONE OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ORGANIZED MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 10/17/2009

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KOKX [170613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 170613
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 AM STORM SURGE KEARNY 40.75N 74.12W
10/17/2009 U0.00 FT HUDSON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR

RT 7 CLOSED FROM 830 TO 1000PM DUE TO TIDAL SURGE.

&&

$$

SMITH

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 170548
SWODY2
SPC AC 170547

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIAN MTNS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD SUNDAY. FURTHER
WEST...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SWD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY IMPEDING MOISTURE RETURN. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE CONUS
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

..BROYLES.. 10/17/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170540
SWODY1
SPC AC 170538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING...MUCH LESS ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD OVER THE CONUS.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES HOWEVER SUGGEST TWO AREAS WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP...PRIMARILY EXTREME SOUTH FL AND PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NW. IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WITHIN WARM SECTOR IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

...PACIFIC NW...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER
VORT/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROUGHLY 500 MI OFF THE WA/ORE
COAST...SHIFTING ENEWD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW. MATURE BAROCLINIC
LEAF PRECEDES THE TROUGH...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED
AT TIMES WITHIN THE ASSOCIATED WARM CONVEYOR. IT APPEARS THIS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
BUOYANCY FOR POSSIBLE LIGHTNING DISCHARGE WITHIN THIS MOIST PLUME
AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS WARM
CONVEYOR SHIFTS INLAND LATER TODAY. EVEN SO ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO ATTAIN LEVELS OF INTENSITY THAT WOULD WARRANT SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...SOUTH FL...

WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...WITH PRE
FRONTAL SFC FLOW EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO VEER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EVERGLADES BY SUNRISE. ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR
DEEP CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...IT APPEARS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA.

..DARROW/GRAMS.. 10/17/2009

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