KSTO [020322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 020322
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
822 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1115 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW PASKENTA 39.94N 122.61W
10/31/2008 M45.00 MPH TEHAMA CA MESONET

EAGLE PEAK RAWS GUST TO 45 MPH AND 40 MPH AT 1015 AM ON
THE 1ST.

0451 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NW LAKEHEAD 40.96N 122.45W
11/01/2008 M45.00 MPH SHASTA CA MESONET

SUGARLOAF RAWS REPORED PEAK WIND GUST 45 MPH.

0554 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 W ONO 40.48N 122.77W
11/01/2008 M41.00 MPH SHASTA CA MESONET

ARBUCKLE BASIN RAW PEAK GUST 41 MPH

0643 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NE UPPER LAKE 39.27N 122.78W
11/01/2008 M54.00 MPH LAKE CA MESONET

HIGH GLADE LOOKOUT RAWS 35 MPH GUSTING TO 54 MPH.

1057 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SW CLEARLAKE 38.92N 122.68W
11/01/2008 M44.00 MPH LAKE CA MESONET

KONOCTI RAWS PEAK GUST 44 MPH

1057 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SE CLEARLAKE 38.86N 122.50W
11/01/2008 M40.00 MPH LAKE CA MESONET

KNOXVILLE CREEK RAWS PEAK GUST 40 MPM

1102 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW CENTERVILLE 40.59N 122.52W
11/01/2008 M41.00 MPH SHASTA CA MESONET

MULE MOUNTAIN RAWS GUST 40 MPH AT 802 AM AND 41 MPH AT
1102 AM.

1117 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 W UPPER LAKE 39.16N 123.04W
11/01/2008 M47.00 MPH LAKE CA MESONET

COW MOUNTAIN RAWS PEAK WIND GUST 47 MPH

1242 PM NON-TSTM WND GST W ELK CREEK 39.61N 122.54W
11/01/2008 M44.00 MPH GLENN CA MESONET

ALDER SPRINGS RAWS PEAK GUST 44 MPH

1248 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 12 E CLEARLAKE 38.96N 122.41W
11/01/2008 M40.00 MPH LAKE CA MESONET

COUNTY LINE RAWS PEAK GUST 40 MPH.

0308 PM HIGH SUST WINDS REDDING 40.57N 122.36W
11/01/2008 M25.00 MPH SHASTA CA ASOS

REDDING AIRPORT 25 MPH GUSTING TO 33 MPH

0412 PM HIGH SUST WINDS RED BLUFF 40.17N 122.24W
11/01/2008 M29.00 MPH TEHAMA CA ASOS

RED BLUFF AIRPORT 29 MPH GUSTING TO 39 MPH. PEAK GUST 41
MPH AT 322 PM.

&&

$$

RBARUFFA

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KMFR [020154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 020154
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
654 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0653 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S MCCLOUD 41.22N 122.14W
11/01/2008 M2.17 INCH SISKIYOU CA TRAINED SPOTTER

2200-1800 LOCAL TIME

&&

$$

SVEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020026
SWODY1
SPC AC 020023

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 PM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA..WRN OR AND NEVADA...

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH CA AND OREGON THIS EVENING...REACHING
THE GREAT BASIN AREA LATE TONIGHT. VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION. DESPITE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...ATTENDANT UPPER
LEVEL THERMAL THROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FOR MARGINAL CAPE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES INLAND.

..DIAL.. 11/02/2008

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KMFR [020024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 020024
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
524 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
11/01/2008 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011941
SWODY1
SPC AC 011938

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WESTERN STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS CORE OF WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH MULTIPLE QUASI-FRONTAL
BANDS OF FORCED ASCENT NEARING THE WEST COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN CA. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH CA LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/GRADUALLY STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS PER GPS-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS...WILL LEAD TO A MODEST INCREASE IN
ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CA/COASTAL ORE...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERIOR MOUNTAIN WEST.

ACROSS SOUTHERN CA...THE 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM VANDENBERG AFB
REFLECTED NEARLY 300 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED IN A LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
AS SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS SOCAL...MODEST BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF
STRONG DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER
LIMITED OVERALL.

..GUYER.. 11/01/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING
NORTHERN ONTARIO...A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION BY EARLY MONDAY. WELL-REMOVED FROM THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN
STREAM...A CLOSED/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION.

...CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
AS A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH/SPEED MAXIMA CROSSES THE REGION
SUNDAY...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DIURNAL
UPSWING IN TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UT/EASTERN ID/WESTERN
CO...COINCIDENT WITH AN EAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
TSTMS WILL REMAIN SUB-SEVERE...SOME OF THE STRONGER LOW-TOPPED TSTMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE
OF WEAK BUOYANCY OVERALL /UP TO 500 J PER KG SBCAPE/...THE STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/AMPLE FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO
SEMI-ORGANIZED/LINEAR-TYPE TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. STEEP LAPSE
RATES/SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS.

...FL...
UPSTREAM CLOSED/COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE FL
PANHANDLE VICINITY ON SUNDAY. IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER AND A FAIRLY
COOL AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE AMIDST PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 1-2 KM...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND A STEEP LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FAVOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE LOW
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 11/01/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011623
SWODY1
SPC AC 011619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A BROAD...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WRN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL

CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE CA CST THIS EVENING AND
MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH TROUGH MOVING OVER
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION AND
FOSTER INCREASED TSTM POTENTIAL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. AT THE
SAME TIME...TERRAIN-INDUCED NEAR-SFC SLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO
ENHANCE LOW-LVL SHEAR.

A PLUME OF HIGHER PW AIR AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS NRN COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA HAS RESULTED IN BANDS OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH 40-50 KT OF SHEAR...LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF LINE SEGMENTS THIS AM
PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

..HALES/BRIGHT.. 11/01/2008

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KCAR [011621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCAR 011621
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1217 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PENOBSCOT 44.46N 68.71W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ABBOT 45.19N 69.45W
10/29/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN IN TOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MILO 45.25N 68.99W
10/29/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGE DUE TO A TREE ON POWER LINE.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BLUE HILL 44.41N 68.59W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DEER ISLE 44.22N 68.68W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN.

0130 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG EASTPORT 44.91N 66.99W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME POST OFFICE

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0140 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 SSW BAR HARBOR 44.25N 68.28W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR

WIND DAMAGE TO FERRY TERMINAL AT BASS HARBOR. DEBRIS WAS
FLOATING IN THE HARBOR.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LIMESTONE 46.91N 67.83W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGE IN TOWN REPORTED BY THE SHERIFFS DEPT.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHARLOTTE 45.02N 67.25W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGES DUE TO TREE LIMBS ON POWER LINES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CALAIS 45.19N 67.28W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME POST OFFICE

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES ON SOUTH STREET.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PRINCETON 45.22N 67.57W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON WEST STREET.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SAINT AGATHA 47.24N 68.31W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME POST OFFICE

POWER OUTAGE FOR A FEW HOURS IN TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAR HARBOR 44.39N 68.20W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG EASTPORT 44.91N 66.99W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME POST OFFICE

TREE DOWN IN QUODDY VILLAGE.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CRYSTAL 45.96N 68.36W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ACROSS ROUTE 159 REPORTED BY THE STATE POLICE.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORIENT 45.82N 67.84W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME POST OFFICE

POWER OUTAGES IN TOWN WITH POWER LOST FOR AT LEAST 5
HOURS.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG VANCEBORO 45.56N 67.43W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TO 5 TREES DONW ON ROUTE 6 JUST WEST OF TOWN REPORTED
BY THE POINT OF ENTRY.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WHITING 44.79N 67.18W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WALTHAM 44.71N 68.34W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 179.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEE 45.36N 68.29W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN PARTS OF TOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORONO 44.88N 68.67W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PATTEN 46.00N 68.45W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 11.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CRYSTAL 45.96N 68.36W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 159.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ASHLAND 46.63N 68.41W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 227.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAMOINE 44.45N 68.29W
10/29/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 184.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG TOPSFIELD 45.42N 67.74W
10/29/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

4 TREES DOWN ALONG ROUTE 6.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SPRINGFIELD 45.40N 68.14W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN ON SOME AREA ROADS.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT KENT 47.26N 68.59W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TRAMPOLINE THROWN AGAINST A HOUSE.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG OLD TOWN 44.93N 68.65W
10/29/2008 PENOBSCOT ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARIBOU 46.86N 68.01W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME NWS EMPLOYEE

TREES DOWN ON THE GRIMES ROAD.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CARIBOU 46.86N 68.01W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE DOWN ON ROUTE ONE NEAR CARY HOSPITAL.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT FAIRFIELD 46.77N 67.83W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME NWS EMPLOYEE

TREE DOWN ON THE GRIMES ROAD.

0330 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG VAN BUREN 47.16N 67.94W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGE IN TOWN.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG FORT KENT 47.26N 68.59W
10/29/2008 AROOSTOOK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

DOWNED CABLE LINE ON MAIN STREET.

&&

$$

JAH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011258
SWODY1
SPC AC 011255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
A BROAD...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE WRN STATES THROUGH SUNDAY. SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TODAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT SCTD AREAS OF SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REACH THE CA CST THIS EVENING AND
MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH TROUGH MOVING OVER
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ENHANCE DESTABILIZATION AND
FOSTER INCREASED TSTM POTENTIAL...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STRENGTH OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. AT THE
SAME TIME...TERRAIN-INDUCED NEAR-SFC SLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT TO
ENHANCE LOW-LVL SHEAR. IF IT APPEARS THAT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LVL
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE REALIZED THAN IS NOW EXPECTED...INTRODUCTION
OF A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO THREAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

...NE TX THROUGH LWR MS VLY...
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL AR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SSE THROUGH LA AND TO THE CNTRL GULF CST
LATER TODAY. A CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ALONG
LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS FROM E TX INTO AR. HOWEVER...LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF
INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE GULF CSTL REGION...WHERE SWWD
ADVECTION OF CP AIR WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER.

..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 11/01/2008

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010858
SWOD48
SPC AC 010857

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0357 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN
PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/LWR MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT WEDNESDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT FAIRLY
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY AN AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK. AND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SIGNIFICANT
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY DEVELOP
BY WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY BROAD
DUE TO THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES INTO LATE WEEK. BUT...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT AT LEAST A
MODEST OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN A CORRIDOR FROM
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO IOWA...NEXT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES TO EXIST AMONG THE MODELS AND MREF
MEMBERS CONCERNING THE STORM EVOLUTION...INCLUDING THE TRACK OF THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW. IF THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE LATEST GFS
COMES TO FRUITION /IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING RETURN
FLOW/...THEN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
GREATER THAN IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.

..KERR.. 11/01/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010710
SWODY3
SPC AC 010707

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SPEED MAXIMA/SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WITHIN A STRONG PACIFIC
POLAR JET ARE FORECAST TO MAINTAIN AND SUPPORT EASTWARD DEVELOPMENT
OF BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN
STATES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN...AHEAD OF A STRONGER IMPULSE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR SURFACE
TROUGHING TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...A LINGERING SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
COAST...WILL PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION OF THE GULF BOUNDARY
LAYER AND A STRONG INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE.
THUS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 11/01/2008

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KSEW [010549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 010549
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1049 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0834 PM DENSE FOG 12 SW BREMERTON 47.43N 122.89W
10/31/2008 MASON WA TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY LESS THAN 30 FEET

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 010547
SWODY1
SPC AC 010546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO CHANGE AZ TO AR IN FIRST SENTENCE OF SECOND PARAGRAPH

...CA THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN
STATES. SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE PROMOTING AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
ONTO THE CA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THERMAL THROUGH ADVECTING OVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...NE TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL AR WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SSEWD THROUGH LA AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST ALONG MOIST AXIS FROM ERN TX THROUGH AR. HOWEVER...LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF
INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE GULF COASTAL REGION WHERE SWWD
ADVECTION OF CP AIR WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
INLAND.

DIAL/SMITH

..DIAL.. 11/01/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010533
SWODY2
SPC AC 010532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY STRONG POLAR JET WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC BELT
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO CALIFORNIA...BEFORE SPLITTING INTO A
COUPLE OF DISTINCT BELTS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER ...WHILE THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH CURVES IN A BROADLY CYCLONIC FASHION ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
EMANATING FROM THE PACIFIC POLAR JET WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...MID-LEVEL COOLING...AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR AN ASSOCIATED 50+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK...WHICH ALL
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG/AHEAD OF A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND UTAH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS
OF THE INSTABILITY...AND EXPECTED LOW TOPPED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...IT APPEARS THAT PEAK CONVECTIVE GUSTS...AND
HAIL...PROBABLY WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

...FLORIDA...
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...A SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED IMPULSE
AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH/EAST OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE EASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW COULD NEVERTHELESS STILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MOISTENING...AND AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT...OVERALL...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS INLAND AREAS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

...GREAT LAKES...
ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST...MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY BECOME COUPLED WITH DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN AN ELEVATED
ZONE OF STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT...TO SUPPORT A LOW RISK FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 11/01/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010532
SWODY1
SPC AC 010528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CA THROUGH CNTRL AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE WRN
STATES. SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE PROMOTING AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
ONTO THE CA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLDER
AIR ALOFT WITH THERMAL THROUGH ADVECTING OVER RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...NE TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL AZ WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT DROPS SSEWD THROUGH LA AND INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
PERSIST ALONG MOIST AXIS FROM ERN TX THROUGH AR. HOWEVER...LIFT
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF
INSTABILITY AXIS AND TOWARD THE GULF COASTAL REGION WHERE SWWD
ADVECTION OF CP AIR WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
INLAND.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 11/01/2008

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