SWODY1
SPC AC 011938
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT SAT NOV 01 2008
VALID 012000Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...WESTERN STATES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS CORE OF WESTERN UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH MULTIPLE QUASI-FRONTAL
BANDS OF FORCED ASCENT NEARING THE WEST COAST AS FAR SOUTH AS
SOUTHERN CA. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO REACH CA LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/GRADUALLY STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS PER GPS-DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS...WILL LEAD TO A MODEST INCREASE IN
ISOLATED TSTMS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CA/COASTAL ORE...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY INTO THE GREAT
BASIN/INTERIOR MOUNTAIN WEST.
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA...THE 12Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM VANDENBERG AFB
REFLECTED NEARLY 300 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED IN A LAYER AROUND 850 MB.
AS SOME SEMI-ORGANIZED BANDS OF SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
INLAND ACROSS SOCAL...MODEST BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF
STRONG DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS RATHER
LIMITED OVERALL.
..GUYER.. 11/01/2008
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