KBOU [170338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 170338
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
938 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0323 PM TSTM WND GST 10 E WATKINS 39.75N 104.41W
09/16/2007 M67 MPH ADAMS CO STORM CHASER

SEVERAL GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH MEASURED BY DAVIS WEATHER
EQUIPMENT.

&&

$$

BENTON

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KTBW [170324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 170324
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1123 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM WATER SPOUT 2 SE PUNTA RASSA 26.47N 81.99W
09/16/2007 GMZ856 FL NEWSPAPER

OBTAINED FROM PHOTOGRAPHS TAKEN NEAR FORT MYERS
BEACH...AND EARLIER SPOTTER REPORTS. TIME ESTIMATED.
SPOUT APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE BEACH WITH
EVIDENCE OF SAND IN THE CIRCULATION.

&&

$$

BSG

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KPSR [170248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 170248
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
748 PM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG PALO VERDE 33.42N 114.73W
09/15/2007 RIVERSIDE CA EMERGENCY MNGR

OF 270 HOME IN PALO VERDE...30 HOMES DESTROYED...80
PERCENT DAMAGED. ESTIMATED 10 MILLION DOLLARS IN
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. NO INJURIES.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 670

WWUS20 KWNS 170203
SEL0
SPC WW 170203
AZZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-170200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
803 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 670 ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ARIZONA
COLORADO
UTAH

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KLBF [170139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 170139
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
839 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0816 PM TSTM WND GST IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
09/16/2007 M61.00 MPH CHASE NE ASOS

CORRECTED FOR TIME OF EVENT

&&

$$

MBYRD

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KLBF [170137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 170137
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
837 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 PM TSTM WND GST IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
09/16/2007 M61 MPH CHASE NE ASOS

&&

$$

MBYRD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170102
SWODY1
SPC AC 170059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..ERN/NRN AZ INTO ERN UT/CO...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN CA AND NV. HEIGHT FALLS /30-50 METERS
AT H5/ AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...AND
JUXTAPOSED WITH MOISTURE PLUME STREAMING NNEWD FROM MEXICO TO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
FORECAST PERIOD FROM ERN AZ/UT INTO CO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...STRENGTHENING SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS
TROUGH TRACKS FARTHER INLAND WILL MAINTAIN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR VALUES FOR A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...DESPITE SURFACE COOLING
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND POSSIBLY HAIL. SINCE THE WEAK INSTABILITY
SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED.

..PARTS OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS
A NRN STREAM TROUGH BECOMES MORE IN PHASE WITH GREAT BASIN SYSTEM
OVERNIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD
INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDED FROM WRN SD SSEWD INTO CENTRAL TO ERN KS IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NWD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND STRENGTHENING SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SWLY
LLJ. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND SEWD FROM A SURFACE LOW IN THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL IA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/WARM
AIR ADVECTION NWD FROM LOWER/MID MO RIVER VALLEY SUGGESTS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INCREASING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG NOSE
OF LLJ INTO IA WHERE WAA WILL BE STRONGEST.

FARTHER W...ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NERN
CO TO FAR SWRN NEB...IS MOVING ENEWD TOWARD COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT.
GIVEN THIS TRACK AND FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION WITH LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING...INCREASING WAA IN VICINITY OF STRENGTHENING
LLJ SUGGESTS THIS COMPLEX MAY BE SUSTAINED EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN
NEB. MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD SEVERE THREAT...BUT
THIS OUTLOOK WILL EXTEND 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES EWD.

.PETERS.. 09/17/2007

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KGLD [170025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 170025
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
625 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND GST WRAY 40.08N 102.23W
09/16/2007 M47 MPH YUMA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE DUE TO BLOWING DUST

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KTBW [170019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KTBW 170019
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
819 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0617 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 9 W FORT MYERS 26.63N 82.00W
09/16/2007 LEE FL ASOS

TWO FUNNELS ALSO REPORTED BY RESIDENT NORTHWEST OF
TAMIAMI TRAIL AND SANIBEL DRIVE. EXACT LOCATION UNKNOWN.
ONE MAY HAVE TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY. OBSERVATION AT KFMY FC
BEGAN 617 PM ENDED 618 PM.

0633 PM TORNADO CAPE CORAL 26.58N 81.99W
09/16/2007 LEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO SEVERAL RESIDENCES ALONG SKYLINE BOULEVARD NEAR
THE 4500 BLOCK. ALSO UPROOTED TREES AND ROOF PULLED OFF
WALMART. RED CROSS ON SCENE. ONE STRUCTURE DAMAGED AT
SOUTHWEST EIGHTH COURT AND SOUTHWEST 37TH TERRACE.
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AROUND CORONADO PARKWAY. TIME OF
THIS EVENT ESTIMATED BY KFMY OBSERVATION OF ANOTHER
FUNNEL AND LIVE RESIDENT AND SPOTTER REPORTS.

0740 PM HAIL 2 ENE PORT CHARLOTTE 26.99N 82.07W
09/16/2007 E0.50 INCH CHARLOTTE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SIZE UNKNOWN. NOTED AS GUMBALL SIZED HAIL BY SHERIFFS
OFFICE NEAR INTERSECTION OF HILLSBOROUGH BOULEVARD AND
ATWATER.

&&
NOTE: REPORTS ARE STILL COMING IN FROM LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL EVENTS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 615 PM AND 710 PM WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED TO ANOTHER LOCAL STORM REPORT OR A FINAL PUBLIC STATEMENT
AND SUMMARY AFTER SURVEY IS COMPLETED ON MONDAY.

AMENDED FOR LOCATION OF HAIL IN PORT CHARLOTTE.
$$

BSG

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KGJT [170016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 170016
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
616 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL MEEKER 40.05N 107.89W
09/16/2007 E0.88 INCH RIO BLANCO CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0543 PM HAIL MEEKER 40.05N 107.89W
09/16/2007 E1.00 INCH RIO BLANCO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

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KGLD [170015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 170015
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 PM TSTM WND GST 7 W WRAY 40.08N 102.36W
09/16/2007 E50 MPH YUMA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STRONG WINDS ACOMPANIED BY NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING DUST.

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KTBW [170015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 170015
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
815 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0617 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 9 W FORT MYERS 26.63N 82.00W
09/16/2007 LEE FL ASOS

TWO FUNNELS ALSO REPORTED BY RESIDENT NORTHWEST OF
TAMIAMI TRAIL AND SANIBEL DRIVE. EXACT LOCATION UNKNOWN.
ONE MAY HAVE TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY. OBSERVATION AT KFMY FC
BEGAN 617 PM ENDED 618 PM.

0633 PM TORNADO CAPE CORAL 26.58N 81.99W
09/16/2007 LEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO SEVERAL RESIDENCES ALONG SKYLINE BOULEVARD NEAR
THE 4500 BLOCK. ALSO UPROOTED TREES AND ROOF PULLED OFF
WALMART. RED CROSS ON SCENE. ONE STRUCTURE DAMAGED AT
SOUTHWEST EIGHTH COURT AND SOUTHWEST 37TH TERRACE.
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES AROUND CORONADO PARKWAY. TIME OF
THIS EVENT ESTIMATED BY KFMY OBSERVATION OF ANOTHER
FUNNEL AND LIVE RESIDENT AND SPOTTER REPORTS.

0740 PM HAIL 2 ENE PORT CHARLOTTE 26.99N 82.07W
09/16/2007 E0.50 INCH CHARLOTTE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SIZE UNKNOWN. NOTED AS GUMBALL SIZED HAIL BY SHERIFFS
OFFICE.

&&
NOTE: REPORTS ARE STILL COMING IN FROM LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL EVENTS BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 615 PM AND 710 PM WILL LIKELY
BE ADDED TO ANOTHER LOCAL STORM REPORT OR A FINAL PUBLIC STATEMENT
AND SUMMARY AFTER SURVEY IS COMPLETED ON MONDAY.
$$

BSG

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KPSR [170006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 170006
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
506 PM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM TSTM WND DMG 15 S PHOENIX 33.33N 112.07W
09/16/2007 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN NEAR DESERT FOOTHILLS PKWY AND CHANDLER BLVD
IN AHWATUKEE.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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KGLD [170002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 170002
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
602 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W YUMA 40.12N 102.74W
09/16/2007 M63 MPH YUMA CO MESONET

&&

$$

SJOHNSON

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KPSR [162348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 162348
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
448 PM MST SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM FLASH FLOOD 10 N GLOBE 33.53N 110.75W
09/16/2007 GILA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

FLOODING AND ROCKSLIDES REPORTED ALONG HIGHWAY 60 NORTH
OF GLOBE.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1974

ACUS11 KWNS 162242
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162242
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-170015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1974
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 162242Z - 170015Z

HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS STEADILY INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
COVERAGE OVER NERN CO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY INITIALLY
DEVELOPED IN CONNECTION WITH MID LEVEL MOIST PLUME THAT EXTENDS FROM
AZ...ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS INTO CO. MUCH OF ERN CO IS QUITE DRY WITH
DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40F. AS A RESULT...SUB CLOUD
LAYER RH IS VERY LOW AND THIS MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL GIVEN
UPDRAFTS ARE APPROACHING A REGION WHERE PW VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH.
ADDITIONALLY...A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS
FOR THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE ALONG AS THEY TRACK TOWARD NWRN KS.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THAT
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE
NOTED WITH STRONGER CORES. UNLESS A WELL DEFINED BOW-TYPE STRUCTURE
WERE TO EVOLVE OVER NERN CO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
SUB-SEVERE IN NATURE.

.DARROW.. 09/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

40240411 40450205 39520108 38800170 39260393

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1973

ACUS11 KWNS 162051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162051
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-162215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1973
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AZ THRU MUCH OF ERN UT AND PARTS OF WRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670...

VALID 162051Z - 162215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 670
CONTINUES.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GROWN NUMEROUS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION...AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...NOW PROGRESSING INLAND OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.
DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER/MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...THE
MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN DISCRETE...BASED IN A
RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KTS...STORMS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WILL INTENSIFY IN THE
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THUS...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE
WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THROUGH 22-23Z ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
ARIZONA AND EASTERN UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO.

.KERR.. 09/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

35441214 36671285 38201215 39461084 40371001 40410846
38510808 37510891 35371033

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 162004
SWODY1
SPC AC 162002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AZ...ERN UT
AND WRN CO...

CORRECTED TO ADJUST THUNDER LINE IN SRN MO

..AZ/ERN UT/WRN CO...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS PLUME ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD FROM CNTRL AZ INTO ERN UT. SBCAPE VALUES
ALONG THIS AXIS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS HELPING THE STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SW WY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN
NV IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS UT
AND WRN CO. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
WSR-88D VWPS SHOW PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WHICH COMBINED WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0
C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AZ AND ERN UT SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE WILL EXIST. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY STEEPEN NWD ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS UT AND WRN
CO.

.BROYLES.. 09/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161956
SWODY1
SPC AC 161953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AZ...ERN UT
AND WRN CO...

..AZ/ERN UT/WRN CO...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS PLUME ALONG AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD FROM CNTRL AZ INTO ERN UT. SBCAPE VALUES
ALONG THIS AXIS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
RANGE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS HELPING THE STORMS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

A 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER SW WY EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS SRN
NV IS CREATING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS UT
AND WRN CO. THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
WSR-88D VWPS SHOW PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WHICH COMBINED WITH
INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 9.0
C/KM ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AZ AND ERN UT SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE WILL EXIST. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GENERALLY STEEPEN NWD ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO COLD AIR
ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS UT AND WRN
CO.

.BROYLES.. 09/16/2007

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KKEY [161915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 161915
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
314 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1135 AM WATER SPOUT 3 NE KEY WEST 24.59N 81.74W
09/16/2007 GMZ032 FL PUBLIC

A MARINER REPORTED A MATURE WATERSPOUT OVER THE GULF SIDE
FLATS BETWEEN CHANNEL KEY AND KEY HAVEN. DURATION AND
MOVEMENT UNKNOWN.

&&
THE WATERSPOUT FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LINE
OF SHOWERS WHICH INITIATED AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED NORTH FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND MERGED WITH AN EXISTING CLOUD LINE OVER
THE LOWER KEYS.
$$

KASPER

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KGJT [161913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 161913
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
113 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM TSTM WND GST 1 E GYPSUM 39.64N 106.93W
09/16/2007 M62 MPH EAGLE CO AWOS

OCCURRED AT THE EAGLE COUNTY REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

$$

JPRINGLE

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 670

WWUS20 KWNS 161833
SEL0
SPC WW 161833
AZZ000-COZ000-UTZ000-170200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 670
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM MDT SUN SEP 16 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ARIZONA
WESTERN COLORADO
EASTERN UTAH

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF
VERNAL UTAH TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 19-20Z WITHIN A MOISTURE PLUME FROM NRN
AZ INTO ERN UT/WRN CO. MUCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1500 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT /DOWNSTREAM FROM A MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER CA/NV/ WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS
WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...AND PERHAPS SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

..THOMPSON

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KJAX [161758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 161758
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
158 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM WATER SPOUT CUMBERLAND ISLAND 30.83N 81.45W
09/16/2007 CAMDEN GA PARK/FOREST SRVC

REPORTED JUST OFFSHORE CUMBERLAND ISLAND.

&&

$$

ECZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1972

ACUS11 KWNS 161748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161747
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1972
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 161747Z - 161915Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING...STORMS
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH.

ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
CHANUTE AREA APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WHERE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR/DESTABILIZATION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A 30-35 KT
WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THE JET STREAK HAS GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING...BUT IS PART OF A BROADER SCALE LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME...DOWNSTREAM OF A WEAK IMPULSE WHICH IS TOPPING THE
CREST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS FORCING
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY/OZARKS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...THE LOW-LEVEL
RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE A WARMING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING INHIBITION.

.KERR.. 09/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

39339854 40419821 40659715 40479577 39809408 38499283
37599247 37059300 36989430 37769517 38929606

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 161729
SWODY2
SPC AC 161727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...NRN PLAINS AND CNTRL PLAINS...

..UPPER MS VALLEY/NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...A
WELL-DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN THE INITIATION OF SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NRN MN EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS ERN SD
AND CNTRL NEB. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL MCS/S
ACROSS THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING.

A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS MONDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS
THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL JET
SHOW 45 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR MAINLY DUE TO SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 700
MB. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE
LOCALLY BACKED. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY
WITH SUPERCELLS. THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR SHOULD ALSO PROMOTE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT MODE IN
THE EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING AN MCS ACROSS CNTRL AND SWRN
MN. THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.

..CO/NRN NM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
MONDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL LIKELY BE STRONG SPREADING EWD ACROSS CO AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE NERN CO PLAINS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW COLD
TEMPS ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS -10 TO -14C/ AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY
WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 09/16/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1971

ACUS11 KWNS 161711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161711
COZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-161915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1971
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN UTAH INTO PARTS OF WRN CO/NERN AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161711Z - 161915Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A WW THIS AFTERNOON.

CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY...
MOSTLY NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS NEAR
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WHICH HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD
FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC/GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION.
HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND RUC GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AN INFLUX
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOW OCCURRING FARTHER TO THE WEST...ALONG
AND TO THE LEE OF THE WASATCH FRONT. THIS IS WHERE INSOLATION IS
ALSO STRONG...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
FURTHER WEAKEN INHIBITION...LIKELY SUPPORTING INCREASING NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN UTAH. INTENSIFYING
STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500-1000+ J/KG. 40-50 KT 500
MB FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER
JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.
AND...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...ACCOMPANIED BY ASSOCIATED
ENHANCED SEVERE THREATS.

.KERR.. 09/16/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

38691153 39651112 40401037 40360909 38840899 37200982
36541060 36421148 37301219

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161604
SWODY1
SPC AC 161602

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NRN
AZ...SRN AND ERN UT...AND WRN CO...

..AZ/UT/CO AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL LOW INVOF NRN CA IS EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE AND WILL TRANSLATE EWD OVER NV TO WRN UT/NW AZ BY EARLY MONDAY.
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...A PLUME OF RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE
/LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S/ IS SPREADING NEWD
FROM AZ INTO SRN/ERN UT AND WRN CO. THE 12Z OBSERVED FGZ AND GJT
SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH NAM/RUC FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF
750-1500 J/KG IN CLOUD BREAKS WITHIN THE MOISTURE PLUME.
ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
FROM W TO E WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM
CA/NV...RESULTING IN WIND PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM AZ
ACROSS SRN/ERN UT INTO WRN CO...WITH GRADUAL STORM INTENSIFICATION
BY MID AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS...MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.

..PLAINS/MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING OVER CENTRAL/ERN KS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA WITH A 40 KT WSWLY LLJ...AND OVER NEB IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE CRESTING THE SRN PLAINS
RIDGE. THE CONVECTION IN KS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LLJ WEAKENS. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE WARM FRONT IN KS WILL LIFT
NWD IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NWD PROGRESS OF THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING...HOWEVER...WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WARM ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER THAT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS. IF
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP TONIGHT...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 35 KT WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THE CAP SHOULD BE QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL...AND THE PROBABILITY OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 09/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161256
SWODY1
SPC AC 161254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SWRN STATES INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
WRN U.S. TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AND SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY WITH PLUME
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE SRN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. SLOW MOVING IMPULSE...NOW OVER NRN MEXICO ON
WV IMAGERY...WILL ALSO DEVELOP NWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES DURING THE
PERIOD. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM PORTIONS OF AZ/NM
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPARSE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT GREATER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING FLOW/SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
MID LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN
TROUGH. LOW LEVEL WAA WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AS DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NWD/NEWD THROUGH THE DAY BENEATH STOUT CAP EVIDENT ON
MORNING SOUNDINGS. DESPITE THE CAPPING...ISOLATED ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ...SUCH AS CURRENTLY OVER
KS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SPREAD EAST TONIGHT...BEING SUSTAINED BY
ASCENT ON NOSE OF LLJ.

ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL WAA AND STRONG
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM MN TO IA.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THIS REGION BASED ON LIMITED
STORM COVERAGE.

..FL...
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS MAY BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS AREA...FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES/SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE
DOWNBURST.

.EVANS/CROSBIE/CARBIN.. 09/16/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160836
SWOD48
SPC AC 160836

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

..DISCUSSION...

DIFFERENCES EXIST AMONGST LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE
DETAILS OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WHILE ALL MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUT-OFF LOW
IN THE W AND RIDGING IN THE E...DIFFERING SOLUTIONS EXIST OVER CNTRL
CANADA INTO THE N-CNTRL TIER OF STATES. WHEN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN MODEL...THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW MUCH MORE AMPLITUDE TO A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES THU/DAY5 AND FRI/DAY 6. THE MORE AMPLIFIED
GFS/UKMET SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR
THE NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY THAN THAT OF THE ECMWF/
CANADIAN.

THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
NEWD EJECTION OF AT LEAST PART OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH INTO THE NRN
PLAINS SAT/DAY 7 INTO SUN/DAY 8. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS REMAINS IN QUESTION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...NO REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA WILL BE
DELINEATED.

.MEAD.. 09/16/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...

..SYNOPSIS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN INDICATING THAT A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GREATER VARIANCE
DOES EXIST WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS
FEATURE DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING GENERALLY FROM SERN SD NEWD INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR. MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS.

..UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS...

CONSIDERABLE NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
TUESDAY MORNING FROM PORTIONS OF MN/WI SWWD INTO NEB...FOCUSED ALONG
WRN EDGE OF 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ. WHILE SOME DECREASE IN AREAL STORM
COVERAGE MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THAT
WILL OCCUR IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OWING TO LINGERING
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCES SUGGESTS THAT THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE NOCTURNAL STORMS
OVER CNTRL/ERN NEB.

BY AFTERNOON...ANY ONGOING TSTMS PRESENT IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES
WITH ARRIVAL OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH. NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED ALONG COLD FRONT SURGING SEWD THROUGH CNTRL INTO ERN
NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. STORMS MAY TEND
TO EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF
IA...ERN MN AND WRN WI.

.MEAD.. 09/16/2007

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KLCH [160719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 160719
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
219 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1253 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS MEASURED 28 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH.

1257 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED WINDS OF 34 MPH GUSTING TO 43
MPH.

0135 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31
MPH WITH A GUST TO 48 MPH.

0140 AM HURRICANE 3 SW HAMSHIRE 29.83N 94.35W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KFDM-TV REPORTED A 58 MPH WIND GUST NEAR WINNIE.

0200 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH
GUSTING TO 62 MPH.

0229 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK STATION SRST2 REPORTED A PEAK WIND
GUST OF 85 MPH.

0230 AM HURRICANE SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.89W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SABINE PASS NOS GAGE MEASURED WIND GUST TO 51 MPH.

0235 AM HURRICANE 2 NW SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.71N 94.07W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX MESONET

MCFADDEN WILDLIFE REFUGE RAWS SITE MEASURED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 60 MPH WITH A GUST TO 75 MPH.

0300 AM HURRICANE 1 S SEA RIM STATE PARK 29.67N 94.05W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 TX C-MAN STATION

SEA RIM STATE PARK MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 MPH
GUSTING TO 71 MPH.

0313 AM HURRICANE 3 S CENTRAL GARDENS 29.95N 94.02W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

KBPT ASOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH GUSTING TO
64 MPH.

0315 AM HURRICANE NEDERLAND 29.97N 94.00W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY.

0348 AM HURRICANE 2 S CAMERON 29.77N 93.30W
09/13/2007 GMZ450 LA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

CALCASIEU PASS NOS TIDAL GAGE MEASURED PEAK SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 38 MPH WITH PEAK WIND GUST OF 43 MPH.

0357 AM HURRICANE BEAUMONT 30.09N 94.14W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX ASOS

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 84 MPH.

0359 AM HURRICANE 5 S BEAUMONT 30.02N 94.14W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIND GUST TO 74 MPH AT ODOM ACADEMY IN SOUTH BEAUMONT.
REPORTED BY KFDM-TV.

0400 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX COUNTY OFFICIAL

WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES WITH STREETS FLOODED.

0406 AM HURRICANE SABINE PASS 29.73N 93.89W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SABINE PASS NOS TIDAL GAGE MEASURED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 49 MPH WITH PEAK WIND GUST OF 67 MPH.

0420 AM TORNADO 5 E GUEYDAN 30.03N 92.42W
09/13/2007 VERMILION LA BROADCAST MEDIA

TORNADO BLEW ROOF OFF HOME AND DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES 1 MILE NORTHWEST OF MULVEY. TIME APPROXIMATE AND
BASED ON RADAR.

0430 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PORTION OF APARTMENT COMPLEX ROOF BLOWN OFF AND LANDED ON
FOUR VEHICLES.

0445 AM HURRICANE BRIDGE CITY 30.03N 93.85W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

*** 1 FATAL *** CARPORT COLLAPSED ONTO AN INDIVIDUAL.
TIME ESTIMATED.

0536 AM HURRICANE VINTON 30.20N 93.58W
09/13/2007 CALCASIEU LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ESTIMATED HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WITH TREES DOWN
ACROSS HIGHWAY 109. REPORTED BY VINTON PD.

0550 AM FLASH FLOOD VIDOR 30.13N 94.00W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

I-10 WESTBOUND CLOSED AT OLD HWY 90 IN VIDOR DUE TO
FLOODING. REPORTED BY VIDOR PD.

0600 AM FLASH FLOOD FANNETT 29.93N 94.25W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

WATER WAS REPORTED IN SOME HOMES IN FANNETT.

0620 AM HURRICANE PORT ARTHUR 29.90N 93.93W
09/13/2007 JEFFERSON TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIDESPREAD TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH 75000 PEOPLE
WITHOUT POWER ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY. REPORTED BY
KFDM-TV.

0730 AM HURRICANE MAURICEVILLE 30.22N 93.87W
09/13/2007 ORANGE TX NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE AREA.

0949 AM FLASH FLOOD 6 SE MERRYVILLE 30.69N 93.46W
09/13/2007 BEAUREGARD LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 110 BETWEEN MERRYVILLE AND SINGER CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WATER.

1112 AM FLASH FLOOD DERIDDER 30.85N 93.29W
09/13/2007 BEAUREGARD LA BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGHWAY 171 JUST NORTH OF DERIDDER IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH
WATER. OTHER NUMEROUS ROADS IN THE CITY OF DERIDDER ARE
BEING COVERED BY WATER.

0255 PM HAIL ALEXANDRIA 31.29N 92.46W
09/13/2007 M0.25 INCH RAPIDES LA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY RED CROSS STAFF IN ALEXANDRIA.
LASTED SEVERAL MINUTES.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 160547
SWODY2
SPC AC 160546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD
INTO NERN NEB...

..SYNOPSIS...

AN EWD PROGRESSION OF BROAD...WRN CONUS TROUGH IS FORECAST DURING
THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER
THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK THAT WILL
TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET
STREAK WILL ORIGINATE OVER NRN CA MONDAY MORNING AND INTENSIFY AS IT
DIGS SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE
ND/MANITOBA BORDER MONDAY WITH A N-S ORIENTED PRESSURE TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD INTO CNTRL NEB. A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE ATTENDANT TO
ABOVEMENTIONED...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY FORM ALONG THIS PRESSURE
TROUGH...SUPPORTING THE NWD MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT THROUGH CNTRL
MN/WRN WI. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL
DAKOTAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES /7.5-8 C PER KM/ WILL RESIDE ATOP AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...SUPPORTING A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS MONDAY
AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA NWD INTO SRN MN WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG. INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR N OF
WARM FRONT OVER CNTRL INTO NRN MN...DRIVEN LARGELY BY WAA ALONG
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED WITH THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL.

INITIALLY STRONG CAP ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR OVER SRN MN/ERN
SD/NERN NEB/NWRN IA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
OWING TO DIABATIC HEATING AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH ARRIVAL OF LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. MORE INTENSE...
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING NEAR TRIPLE POINT /I.E. WEAK SURFACE
WAVE/ WHERE WARM FRONT WILL INTERSECT PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER E-CNTRL SD/SWRN OR W-CNTRL MN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD THROUGH E-CNTRL
MN INTO NWRN WI.

ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
SWWD ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH INTO CNTRL NEB MONDAY EVENING. THIS MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL NOCTURNAL LLJ BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...ENHANCING
CONVERGENCE ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH. THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

..FOUR CORNERS REGION...

TERRAIN FORCING AND INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT BASIN
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE
OVERLY MOIST /PW VALUES OF .6-.9 INCH/...STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. MOREOVER...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

.MEAD.. 09/16/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160450
SWODY1
SPC AC 160448

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT SAT SEP 15 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION EARLY THIS WEEK AS HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS
THE NRN HALF OF THE U.S. AND MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW INCREASES FROM
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
EARLY IN THIS TRANSITION PATTERN THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE NWD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BENEATH THIS STRENGTHENING FLOW ALOFT.

..AZ TO CO...

HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN SHOULD ENHANCE DEEPER SWLY
TRAJECTORIES FROM AZ INTO CO...ALLOWING MOIST PLUME AND HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER...GREATER THAN ONE INCH...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
4-CORNERS REGION INTO PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. LATE EVENING
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NRN
AZ INTO CO AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NV LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS
INCREASE IN FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS
TO ATTAIN AT LEAST MULTICELL CHARACTERISTICS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFY WITHIN DEEPER MOIST PLUME. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..ELSEWHERE...

WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ACTIVE ON SUNDAY ALONG THE FL
PENINSULA AS ELY COMPONENT INCREASES AND DEEPENS ALONG SRN FRINGE OF
LARGE SFC ANTICYCLONE. POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A WET MICROBURST CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BENEATH MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH. LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY APPEAR INADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SOON ALLOW NWD TRANSPORT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO KS/NEB/SD. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE INTO THE DAY2 PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS. UNTIL THEN...LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND THAT SHOULD BE MAINLY AFTER 00Z.

.DARROW/CROSBIE.. 09/16/2007

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KPSR [160436]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 160436
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
936 PM MST SAT SEP 15 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND DMG PALO VERDE 33.42N 114.73W
09/15/2007 RIVERSIDE CA EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS STRUCTURES DAMAGED INCLUDING A FIRE STATION.
HIGH VOLTAGE POWER TRANSMISSION LINES SIGNIFICANTLY
DAMAGED.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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