Saturday, October 22, 2011

KOUN [230344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230344
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM HAIL ADDINGTON 34.24N 97.97W
10/22/2011 E2.50 INCH JEFFERSON OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230337
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1035 PM HAIL 1 N ADDINGTON 34.26N 97.97W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH JEFFERSON OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230325
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1017 PM HAIL 5 ESE LOCO 34.30N 97.60W
10/22/2011 E1.75 INCH STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO

1020 PM HAIL 7 NNW HEALDTON 34.33N 97.53W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH CARTER OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230316
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1016 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 PM HAIL 3 SW DUNCAN 34.49N 98.01W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230246
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
946 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM HAIL 10 NNE COALGATE 34.67N 96.15W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH COAL OK PUBLIC


&&

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KOUN [230240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230240
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
940 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM HAIL 5 E UNION CITY 35.39N 97.85W
10/22/2011 M3.75 INCH CANADIAN OK STORM CHASER


&&

$$

FM

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KTSA [230234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 230234
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
934 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BEGGS 35.77N 96.07W
10/22/2011 OKMULGEE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

THE ROOF OF A BARN WAS BLOWN OFF.TREES AND POWER LINES
WERE BLOWN DOWN.


&&

$$

EJC

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KTSA [230231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 230231
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
931 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM TSTM WND DMG OKEMAH 35.43N 96.30W
10/22/2011 OKFUSKEE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
AND SOUTH OF TOWN


&&

$$

EJC

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KOUN [230229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230229
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
929 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM TSTM WND GST PAULS VALLEY 34.74N 97.22W
10/22/2011 E60 MPH GARVIN OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

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KOUN [230200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230200
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0858 PM HAIL 11 E MARLOW 34.64N 97.77W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH STEPHENS OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

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KOUN [230156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230156
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
856 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL GERTY 34.84N 96.29W
10/22/2011 E1.75 INCH HUGHES OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

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KOUN [230140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230140
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HAIL 6 E TUTTLE 35.29N 97.71W
10/22/2011 E1.25 INCH GRADY OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230129
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
829 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0827 PM HAIL ALLEN 34.88N 96.41W
10/22/2011 E1.75 INCH PONTOTOC OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230122
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
822 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL 2 WSW BLANCHARD 35.13N 97.69W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

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KOUN [230120]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230120
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
820 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0753 PM HAIL 3 NNW ADA 34.82N 96.68W
10/22/2011 E2.75 INCH PONTOTOC OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230116
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
816 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HAIL 3 S BLANCHARD 35.10N 97.66W
10/22/2011 E1.25 INCH MCCLAIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230113
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
813 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL 5 WSW POCASSET 35.17N 98.03W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

FM

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KTSA [230053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 230053
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
753 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W HECTORVILLE 35.84N 96.00W
10/22/2011 M71.00 MPH OKMULGEE OK MESONET

0745 PM TSTM WND GST 4 W HECTORVILLE 35.84N 96.00W
10/22/2011 M69.00 MPH OKMULGEE OK MESONET


&&

$$

EJC

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KTSA [230039]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 230039
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
739 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0734 PM HAIL WELEETKA 35.34N 96.14W
10/22/2011 E0.88 INCH OKFUSKEE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

RELAYED REPORT FROM A STORM SPOTTER


&&

$$

EJC

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KOUN [230032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230032
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
732 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 PM HAIL 2 NW WARR ACRES 35.55N 97.64W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH OKLAHOMA OK TRAINED SPOTTER

0728 PM HAIL TUTTLE 35.29N 97.82W
10/22/2011 E2.00 INCH GRADY OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

0708 PM HAIL 5 E UNION CITY 35.39N 97.85W
10/22/2011 E2.75 INCH CANADIAN OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230023
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
723 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL 5 N MUSTANG 35.47N 97.72W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH CANADIAN OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [230020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230020
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
720 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 7 NW ADA 34.85N 96.75W
10/22/2011 E2.75 INCH PONTOTOC OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

FM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230020
SWODY1
SPC AC 230018

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO NRN
TX...

...OK/NORTH TX/SWRN AR...

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED INVOF SEWD-MOVING
UPPER VORT ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF OK. ALTHOUGH WARM ADVECTION
IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LLJ WILL
INCREASE OVER NCNTRL TX EXTENDING INTO SERN OK OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED UPWARD GROWTH OF
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND AN EXPANDING MCS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD/DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE
OF 2500 J/KG AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT DEEP STORM
ROTATION. LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS TWO PRIMARY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...ONE OVER SRN CANADIAN COUNTY
DROPPING SSEWD INTO NRN GRADY COUNTY...THE OTHER OVER OKFUSKEE
COUNTY MOVING INTO NRN HUGHES COUNTY. OTHERWISE...NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE MERGING NORTH OF I-40...EAST OF I-35 AND
THIS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS PER EARLIER THOUGHTS.

..DARROW.. 10/23/2011

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KOUN [230019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230019
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
719 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL 3 W ADA 34.78N 96.71W
10/22/2011 E1.75 INCH PONTOTOC OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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KTSA [230014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 230014
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
714 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0713 PM HAIL 2 E OWASSO 36.27N 95.82W
10/22/2011 M0.75 INCH TULSA OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EJC

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KTSA [230006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 230006
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
705 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM HAIL 2 NNE BEARDEN 35.37N 96.37W
10/22/2011 E2.00 INCH OKFUSKEE OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

EJC

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2269

ACUS11 KWNS 230001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230001
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-230200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...OK INTO N TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869...

VALID 230001Z - 230200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 869
CONTINUES.

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER MUCH OF CNTRL OK. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
WAS FOCUSED ALONG A W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT...AND ALSO FARTHER N IN
AN AREA BOTH WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND ALSO WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION. ONLY A SINGLE STORM WAS OBSERVED IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR
ADA.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 2000 J/KG. OBSERVED VWPS ALSO INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...ALTHOUGH FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WERE
RELATIVELY WEAK...PERHAPS MITIGATING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT
OVERALL.

SINGLE CELL STORMS OVER ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND TO THE S WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT...GENERALLY WITH MAX SIZES TO
PING PONG OR GOLF BALL SIZE. THESE STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GO THE WAY
OF THE NRN OK STORMS...BECOMING MORE OF A MERGED CLUSTER WITH TIME.
THIS COULD REDUCE HAIL THREAT...BUT INCREASE WIND POTENTIAL AS THE
STORMS WOULD THEN FORWARD PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
OK...AND EVENTUALLY INTO NERN TX.

..JEWELL.. 10/23/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32769440 33079847 35599849 35229441 32769440

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KOUN [230001]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 230001
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
701 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM HAIL 4 W YUKON 35.51N 97.82W
10/22/2011 E1.50 INCH CANADIAN OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

FM

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KABR [230000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 230000
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
700 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 PM HAIL 16 NNE HOLABIRD 44.74N 99.47W
10/22/2011 E0.88 INCH HYDE SD PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND


&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1100126

$$

TROGDON

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KTSA [222344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 222344
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
644 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM HAIL 4 NNE BOLEY 35.55N 96.46W
10/22/2011 E1.75 INCH OKFUSKEE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

0641 PM HAIL 3 W BOLEY 35.49N 96.54W
10/22/2011 E2.75 INCH OKFUSKEE OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

EJC

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KOUN [222331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 222331
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
631 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0629 PM HAIL 3 NE CONCHO 35.65N 97.96W
10/22/2011 E1.25 INCH CANADIAN OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [222328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 222328
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM HAIL 5 S ASHER 34.92N 96.92W
10/22/2011 E1.75 INCH PONTOTOC OK STORM CHASER


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [222322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 222322
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
622 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 PM HAIL 2 S WANETTE 34.93N 97.03W
10/22/2011 E1.50 INCH POTTAWATOMIE OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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KOUN [222207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 222207
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
507 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0451 PM HAIL 1 SW PONCA CITY 36.70N 97.10W
10/22/2011 E1.00 INCH KAY OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

FM

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 869

WWUS20 KWNS 222036
SEL9
SPC WW 222036
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-230500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 869
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
WICHITA FALLS TEXAS TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PARIS TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO NWRN OK WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ESE TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY LATE THIS EVE.
LLVL MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY UPR 50S TO LWR 60S DEW
POINTS...HAVE COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING TO SUPPORT MLCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX. EXPECT TSTMS TO INITIATE
INVOF SWRN/CNTRL OK 22-23Z NEAR A WRMFNT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY
WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STORM
NUMBER INCREASE...EXPECT TRANSITION INTO A POSSIBLE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...TRACKING ESE INTO N TX AND POSSIBLY THE
ARKLATEX REGION BY 06-07Z. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT LATER THIS EVE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30030.


...RACY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221956
SWODY1
SPC AC 221954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN
OK...NORTH TX INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE ARKLATEX...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TSTM INITIATION
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON /21-23Z/ PER
DEVELOPING CU FIELD FROM N-NE TX INTO SRN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL OK
ALONG AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. IN ADDITION...TIMING OF SEWD MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER KS INTO NWRN OK...IS ALSO ON
TRACK TO AID IN UVVS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION YET THIS AFTERNOON
OVER CENTRAL/SRN OK.

MESOSCALE DETAILS PROVIDED IN SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2268
INDICATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY AND THIS TREND CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED WITH THE SEVERE
HAIL PROBABILITIES...WHILE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS REMAINS
POSSIBLE. THUS...GREATER SEVERE WIND PROBABILITIES ARE CENTERED
EITHER SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE E/SEWD EXTENSION OF
INSTABILITY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS /AND ATTENDANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS/ THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MORE
OF THE ARKLATEX.

..PETERS.. 10/22/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011/

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WERE MADE TO SHAVE OFF NWRN PARTS OF
SVR PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK OVER WRN OK AND ADD TO THE
SRN FRINGE OF SVR RISKS IN N TX.

LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MID-UPR 50S DEW
POINTS ANTICIPATED BY MID-AFTN NEAR A WARM FRONT IN CNTRL/SRN OK AND
N TX /MLCAPES 500-1500 J PER KG/. AS FORMIDABLE UPR WAVE OVER WRN
KS BRUSHES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS WILL INITIATE 22-23Z IN
CNTRL OK ALA 12Z WRF-NMM/1.33KM NAM NESTED GRID. THOUGH MID-LVL WLY
FLOW EXHIBITS WEAKNESS...HIGH-LVL FLOW WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE. COOL THERMO
PROFILES AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL.

FOCUSED AREA OF LLVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE
AMPLIFICATION OF DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD
EVOLVE INTO A SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS
PARTS OF N TX AFTER DARK.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2268

ACUS11 KWNS 221850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221849
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-222045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2268
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN OK...NCNTRL THROUGH NERN TX AND
SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 222045Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BETWEEN 21-23Z FROM PARTS CNTRL
THROUGH SERN OK AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO NERN TX AND SWRN AR. INITIAL
THREATS WILL BE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS
CONGEAL INTO AN MCS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SWRN AR NWWD THROUGH CNTRL
OK. A DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS WRN AND NWRN TX. BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A
RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM
N-CNTRL AND NERN TX INTO SRN AND S-CNTRL OK. VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACCAS OVER NRN OK MOVING SEWD...WHILE
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER NERN TX AND SE OK. THE
ACCAS IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF INCREASING MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORT MAX MOVING SEWD THROUGH SWRN KS AND NWRN OK. CINH SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...AND THE BAND OF ASCENT BEGINS
TO ACT ON NRN FRINGE OF THE WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN THE CORRIDOR FROM NERN TX...SERN THROUGH CNTRL OK WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS
THE INITIAL STORM MODE...BUT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO
AN MCS. STEEP LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -12 TO -16C AT 500
MB...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UPDRAFT ROTATION WILL SUPPORT A THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..DIAL.. 10/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35909734 35559577 34949457 34079395 33179403 32749504
32909654 34119737 35059815 35659815 35909734

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221728
SWODY2
SPC AC 221727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS INDICATED BY THE INITIAL DAY 2 OUTLOOK...A STRONG POLAR JET
SHIFTING EWD OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN ON SUNDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WRN STATES IN ADVANCE TO THE APPROACH OF A FAST-MOVING/
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED S OF THE ALEUTIANS PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EVOLUTION IN THE WEST...A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL SHIFT
E TO THE PLAINS AND ERN STATES...RESPECTIVELY.

...E TX/ARKLATEX REGION...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LINGERING SATURDAY NIGHT TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY
THE ARKLATEX SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING LOW LEVEL WAA AND
WARMING ALOFT AS THE DAY 1 SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ESE
AWAY FROM THE CORRIDOR OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER E TX TO
THE ARKLATEX. THE COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR TSTMS WILL BE
LIMITED...AND NO SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED.

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH OH/MID MS VALLEYS...
A FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE BRITISH
COLUMBIA COAST PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PROGRESS ESEWD FROM
ALBERTA TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL AID IN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NRN EXTENT OF THE ERN STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH.
LOW LEVEL WAA EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS IN ADVANCE OF THE
AMPLIFYING ALBERTA SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION ESPECIALLY FROM
THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...AND
POTENTIALLY S TOWARD THE OZARKS. WHILE A COUPLE OF TSTMS APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MINIMAL
OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT THE INCLUSION OF A 10 PERCENT
GENERAL TSTM AREA.

..PETERS.. 10/22/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221615
SWODY1
SPC AC 221613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX...

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST WERE MADE TO SHAVE OFF NWRN PARTS OF
SVR PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK OVER WRN OK AND ADD TO THE
SRN FRINGE OF SVR RISKS IN N TX.

LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AS PLANNED WITH MID-UPR 50S DEW
POINTS ANTICIPATED BY MID-AFTN NEAR A WARM FRONT IN CNTRL/SRN OK AND
N TX /MLCAPES 500-1500 J PER KG/. AS FORMIDABLE UPR WAVE OVER WRN
KS BRUSHES ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS...TSTMS WILL INITIATE 22-23Z IN
CNTRL OK ALA 12Z WRF-NMM/1.33KM NAM NESTED GRID. THOUGH MID-LVL WLY
FLOW EXHIBITS WEAKNESS...HIGH-LVL FLOW WILL BOOST EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVE. COOL THERMO
PROFILES AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL.

FOCUSED AREA OF LLVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE
AMPLIFICATION OF DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD
EVOLVE INTO A SMALL FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS
PARTS OF N TX AFTER DARK.

..RACY/LEITMAN.. 10/22/2011

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KPIH [221523]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 221523
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
923 AM MDT SAT OCT 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 AM DENSE FOG DRIGGS 43.73N 111.11W
10/22/2011 TETON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

FOG ALONG HIGHWAY 33 REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 2 CAR
LENGTHS.


&&

$$

VALLE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221254
SWODY1
SPC AC 221252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E PACIFIC AND FAR WRN U.S. AS
DOWNSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH NOW OVER THE RCKYS AMPLIFIES ESE
ACROSS THE PLNS/OZARKS. A SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCE IN THE
TROUGH...NOW OVER CO...SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO CNTRL KS/WRN OK BY
EVE...AND INTO AR/NRN LA BY 12Z SUN.

FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT THE SFC. LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER
WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS...WHILE DIFFUSE W-E WARM FRONT...NOW
OVER N TX...EDGES N INTO SRN/CNTRL OK LATER TODAY AND BECOMES STNRY.


...PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
NWLY MID LVL FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLNS TODAY AS UPR
SYSTEM GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES OVER REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...20-25 KT
SSWLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST E OF LEE TROUGH. SATELLITE-DERIVED
PW DATA AND THE MORNING RAOBS SHOW AN ARC OF RELATIVELY MOIST AIR
/WITH PW UP TO AN INCH/ OVER N TX...LARGELY COLLOCATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS MOIST AXIS SHOULD MOVE N THROUGH
THE DAY AND BE LOCATED OVER SRN OR CNTRL OK BY LATE AFTN.

COMBINATION OF CONTINUED MOISTURE INFLOW...SFC HEATING...AND
ASCENT/MID LVL COOLING DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE
SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTN ALONG AND N OF WARM
FRONT IN OK...WHERE MUCAPE LIKELY WILL AVERAGE AOA 1500 J/KG...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND PRESENCE
OF 35-40 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCTD SUSTAINED
STORMS AND EVEN A COUPLE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. FOCUSED AREA
OF LOW LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND CONTINUED ESE AMPLIFICATION OF
DIFLUENT UPR TROUGH SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A SMALL
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS OR TWO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED HAIL/MARGINAL
WIND THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING SE ACROSS PARTS OF TX AFTER DARK.

...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ATTENDANT TO NRN PART OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH...OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS AND NW MN THIS EVE...WHERE SPARSE MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY
SHOULD LIMIT SVR THREAT.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 10/22/2011

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 220844
SWOD48
SPC AC 220843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...AN INITIALLY LOW AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE
UPPER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO YIELD TO A CONSIDERABLE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION MID-LATE WEEK AS HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTERN
STATES LONGWAVE TROUGH.

ON DAY 4/TUESDAY...WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS INCREASINGLY COMING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...A WARM/RELATIVELY MOIST
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST/MS
VALLEY VICINITY AHEAD OF A POSITIVE-TILT/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. WHILE MODEST MOISTURE CONTENT/WARM
SECTOR CAPPING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITATIONS...SOME STRONG/PERHAPS
SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEAR/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

WHILE LITTLE SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED DAY
5/WEDNESDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT A SEVERE THREAT COULD
MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON DAY 6/THURSDAY INTO DAY
7/FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR FROM FL TO THE
CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD BE AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES AND MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
VARIABILITY/LIMITED PREDICTABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE PRECLUDE A 30
PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREA.

..GUYER.. 10/22/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 220719
SWODY3
SPC AC 220718

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LOW-AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL
BEGIN TO UNDERGO A MODEST DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION ON MONDAY. A
FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS...WITH
AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
VICINITY/NORTHEAST STATES. TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITY
AS A WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTENSIFIES IN ADVANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. IN
EITHER CASE...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS GENERALLY
ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEAGER MOISTURE/BUOYANCY.

..GUYER.. 10/22/2011

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 220543
SWODY2
SPC AC 220542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON SUNDAY.
AS A STRONG POLAR JET SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF MANITOBA/ONTARIO...WHILE STEADY HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF A FAST-MOVING/AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

POTENTIALLY LINGERING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY...ALTHOUGH
FACTORS SUCH AS WEAKENING MASS CONVERGENCE/WARMING ALOFT WITH TIME
IMPLY THAT THE COVERAGE/LIKELIHOOD WILL BE LIMITED. NO SEVERE TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED.

OTHER MORE ISOLATED TSTMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY OF AN
ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT/WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION. WHILE SOME
TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A CORRIDOR INCLUDING NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF MN/WI TO MI...A DEGREE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY AND
EXPECTATIONS FOR ONLY SPORADIC COVERAGE PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF
10 PERCENT TSTM PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 10/22/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220536
SWODY1
SPC AC 220534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX...

...OK/NORTH TX...

NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS WY/CO INTO WRN OK BY 21Z. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT
THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WEST TX WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SFC WARM FRONT TO
ADVANCE/SHARPEN NEAR THE RED RIVER BY PEAK HEATING. WHILE LARGE
SCALE FORCING/CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OK WHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENING
PROFILES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
AOA 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. CURRENTLY MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH TX IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH
WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS ACT. GIVEN
THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY COOL IT APPEARS THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY ACROSS OK THEN INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/NERN
TX AFTER DARK.

IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL SHEAR IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAN MATERIALIZE. EVEN SO STRONG/SEVERE MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AS THEY PROPAGATE SEWD
ACROSS SRN HALF OF OK INTO NORTH TX BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.

...ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN MN SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION SO
DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.

..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 10/22/2011

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