SWODY1
SPC AC 220534
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2011
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX...
...OK/NORTH TX...
NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AS MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY. ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS WY/CO INTO WRN OK BY 21Z. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT
THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SFC
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WEST TX WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SFC WARM FRONT TO
ADVANCE/SHARPEN NEAR THE RED RIVER BY PEAK HEATING. WHILE LARGE
SCALE FORCING/CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG...WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OK WHERE GRADUALLY MOISTENING
PROFILES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE
AOA 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. CURRENTLY MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH TX IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH BUT PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR ONE INCH
WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS ACT. GIVEN
THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAIRLY COOL IT APPEARS THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY ACROSS OK THEN INTO PORTIONS OF NCNTRL/NERN
TX AFTER DARK.
IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LOW LEVEL SHEAR IT APPEARS LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAN MATERIALIZE. EVEN SO STRONG/SEVERE MULTI-CELL
UPDRAFTS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE SOME HAIL AS THEY PROPAGATE SEWD
ACROSS SRN HALF OF OK INTO NORTH TX BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH ADVANCING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NWRN MN SATURDAY
EVENING. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION SO
DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR ANY STORMS THAT FORM ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.
..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 10/22/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment