Saturday, August 23, 2008

KBMX [231952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 231952
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
252 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG CLIO 31.71N 85.61W
08/23/2008 BARBOUR AL BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN NEAR CLIO AND A FEW TREES
WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. THESE DOWNED TREES
PRODUCED SOME POWER OUTAGES. TREES DOWNED DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN AND ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH.


&&

$$

LINHARES

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KJAX [231952]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231952
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG GAINESVILLE 29.67N 82.34W
08/23/2008 ALACHUA FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WERE
RECIEVED BY ALACHUA COUNTY SHERIFF DISPATCH.


&&

$$

ENYEDI

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KAPX [231921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231921
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
321 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM HEAVY RAIN HOUGHTON LAKE 44.30N 84.76W
08/23/2008 M1.75 INCH ROSCOMMON MI ASOS

3 HR TOTAL THRU 3 PM AT HOUGHTON LAKE AIRPORT.


&&

$$

JZ

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KAPX [231920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231920
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
319 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 W GREILICKVILLE 44.80N 85.69W
08/23/2008 M1.00 INCH LEELANAU MI PUBLIC

4 HOUR TOTAL THRU 3 PM.


&&

$$

JZ

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KCRP [231906]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 231906
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
206 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM FLASH FLOOD LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
08/23/2008 WEBB TX PUBLIC

CITIZENS TRAVELING ON HWY 359 IN THE LAREDO CITY LIMITS
REPORTED FLOODED ROADS.


&&

$$

KRR

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KMFL [231903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 231903
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 E POMPANO BEACH 26.23N 80.09W
08/23/2008 AMZ651 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER BR264 REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OFFSHORE POMPANO
BEACH VIEWED FROM I-95 AT SAMPLE ROAD.

0955 AM WATER SPOUT 2 E POMPANO BEACH 26.23N 80.09W
08/23/2008 AMZ651 FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WATERSPOUT EAST OF POMPANO BEACH
VIEWED FROM COPANS ROAD.

0235 PM HEAVY RAIN NAPLES 26.14N 81.80W
08/23/2008 E0.00 INCH COLLIER FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED VERY HEAVY RAINS IN NAPLES
CAUSING EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING IN OLD NAPLES ALONG
GULF SHORE BOULEVARD 6 TO 10 INCHES DEEP BETWEEN 5TH
AVENUE AND 11TH AVENUE SOUTH.


&&

$$

GARCIA

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KCRP [231902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 231902
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
201 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM FLASH FLOOD LAREDO 27.53N 99.49W
08/23/2008 WEBB TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAREDO P.D. REPORTED FLOODING IN THE CITY OF LAREDO. THE
INTERSECTIONS OF CLARK BLVD AND CEDAR AVE...MCPHERSON AVE
AND JACAMAN RD...AND LAS CRUCES DR AND MINES RD HAVE BEEN
CLOSED.


&&

$$

RG

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KBRO [231854]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 231854
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
153 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 N SAN YGNACIO 27.06N 99.45W
08/23/2008 ZAPATA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER/MUD COVERING US HIGHWAY 83 NORTH OF SAN YGNACIO,
REPORTED BY ZAPATA COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.


&&

$$

HART

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KTAE [231844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231844
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E TALLAHASSEE 30.44N 84.25W
08/23/2008 LEON FL PUBLIC

FLOODING ON PAR LANE NEAR HILAMAN GOLF COURSE. WATER
APPROACHING FOUNDATIONS OF HOMES.


&&

$$

CAMP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2142

ACUS11 KWNS 231842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231841
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-232045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2142
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN AL...NERN FL...CENTRAL/ERN PANHANDLE
OF FL...S-CENTRAL/SWRN GA.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 857...

VALID 231841Z - 232045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 857 CONTINUES.

CONTINUE REMAINING PORTIONS WW THROUGH SCHEDULED 19Z EXPIRATION.
FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO BE GETTING MORE
HORIZONTALLY DISPLACED...THOUGH SOME OVERLAP STILL SUPPORTS MRGL
TORNADO POTENTIAL. OCCURRENCE OF A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA AFTER WW EXPIRES. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ANALYSES DURING PAST COUPLE HOURS INDICATE THREAT MAY BE TOO MRGL
AND WIDELY DISPERSED FOR ANOTHER WW. MIXED SIGNALS IN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND CONVECTIVE MODE INDICATE TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN VERY SPORADIC/DIFFUSE THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON...BEFORE
UNDERGOING NOCTURNAL DECREASE WITH LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING BETWEEN
INNER AND OUTER BANDS.

CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS UNDERGONE GEN INCREASE SINCE LATE MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NWRN FL AND S-CENTRAL/SERN GA...BUT WITH
PRIMARILY LINEAR/SEGMENTED MODES...SHORT LIFESPANS FOR MOST DISCRETE
ACTIVITY...AND DISTINCT LACK OF SIGNIFICANT/PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS IN WHAT OTHERWISE HAS APPEARED TO BE FAVORABLE
SHEAR/BUOYANCY JUXTAPOSITION. LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER MOST OF SRN GA
AND NERN FL STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE WITH 0-1KM SRH 200-400
J/KG...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS PARENT CIRCULATION MOVES
FARTHER WWD. SFC THERMAL AXIS STILL IS ANALYZED FROM LOWER SAV
RIVER AREA WSWWD INTO SWRN GA...SUPPORTING EWD INCREASE IN MLCAPE
FROM AROUND 250 J/KG OVER SWRN GA TO 500-800 J/KG OVER SERN GA.
STRONGER HEATING OVER CENTRAL/NRN FL SUPPORTS 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPES...BUT IN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER SHEAR.

REF LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR TROPICAL WATCHES/WARNINGS AND
TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON FAY.

..EDWARDS.. 08/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

29818503 30498494 31338537 31578572 32458568 32938425
32428286 32008231 31628272 30978268 30388258 28548263
29178279 29128303 29528338 29688340 29768363 29968367
30108402 30048431 29918437 29768461 29608493

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KTAE [231841]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231841
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD TALLAHASSEE 30.44N 84.28W
08/23/2008 LEON FL PUBLIC

SAN LUIS PARK POND OVERFLOWING IT BANKS INTO APARTMENT
COMPLEX ON RUMBA LANE.


&&

$$

MROCZKA

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KTAE [231838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231838
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
237 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN TALLAHASSEE 30.44N 84.28W
08/23/2008 M10.50 INCH LEON FL OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED ON THE CAMPUS OF FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY.


&&

$$

MROCZKA

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KTBW [231833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTBW 231833
LSRTBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
233 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1250 PM FLOOD 1 S FORT MYERS SHORES 26.70N 81.74W
08/23/2008 LEE FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER WHO LIVES ADJACENT TO THE ORANGE RIVER AT
BUCKINGHAM REPORTED THE RIVER AT LEAST TWO FEET ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE. HE NOTED THE SMALL RIVER THAT IS NORMALLY 50
FEET WIDE WAS OVER 500 FEET WIDE AT THE TIME OF THE
REPORT.

0100 PM FLOOD BONITA SPRINGS 26.34N 81.79W
08/23/2008 LEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO MOBILE HOME PARKS FLOODED. SIGNIFICANT SHEET FLOW
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY.

0100 PM FLOOD 3 W NORTH FORT MYERS 26.71N 81.94W
08/23/2008 LEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER ENTERING AT LEAST TWO HOMES IN BAYSHORE.


&&

$$

17

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KAPX [231759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231759
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0158 PM HEAVY RAIN 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
08/23/2008 M1.52 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

2 HR TOTAL THRU 2 PM AT NWS OFFICE.


&&

$$

JZ

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KTAE [231745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231745
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HEAVY RAIN THOMASVILLE 30.84N 83.98W
08/23/2008 E11.50 INCH THOMAS GA EMERGENCY MNGR

ESTIMATED RAINFALL SO FAR TODAY 10-11.5 INCHES AROUND
THOMAS COUNTY.


&&

$$

GOREE

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KFFC [231737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KFFC 231737
LSRFFC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
137 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 32.47N 84.97W
08/23/2008 MUSCOGEE GA BROADCAST MEDIA

A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS COLUMBUS, SOME OF WHICH KNOCKED
DOWN POWERLINES. 250 WITHOUT POWER.


&&

$$

SKONARIK

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KTAE [231730]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231730
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HEAVY RAIN PERRY 30.11N 83.58W
08/23/2008 M18.00 INCH TAYLOR FL EMERGENCY MNGR

MEASURED AT THE PERRY/FOLEY TAYLOR COUNTY AIRPORT.


&&

$$

MROCZKA

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KTAE [231716]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231716
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
116 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLASH FLOOD GREENVILLE 30.47N 83.64W
08/23/2008 MADISON FL TRAINED SPOTTER

MANY ROADS AND LOW LYING AREAS FLOODED. REPORTS OF
DOWNTOWN POND ABOUT TO OVERFLOW AND COVER PORTIONS OF
HIGHWAY 90.


&&

$$

MROCZKA

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KAPX [231651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 231651
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1251 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM HEAVY RAIN HESSEL 46.01N 84.42W
08/23/2008 M1.04 INCH MACKINAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

2 HR TOTAL THRU 1 PM.


&&

$$

JZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2141

ACUS11 KWNS 231648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231647
MIZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2141
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231647Z - 231745Z

LINE OF TSTMS MAY POSE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR WIND THREAT AS IT
DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3 HRS.
AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST VWP DATA FROM GAYLORD SHOWS 30-40 KTS OF 1-3 KM
UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE LINE THAT
EXTENDED FROM FAR NCENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD TO WCENTRAL LOWER MI/LAKE
MICHIGAN. AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS DESTABILIZED
SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT WILL BE
MARGINAL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6 DEG C/KM AND HIGH WBZ HEIGHTS /12-13
KFT/. HOWEVER...GIVEN LINEAR NATURE OF CONVECTION COUPLED WITH
MODEST WIND FIELDS...AT LEAST ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE.

..CROSBIE.. 08/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

45688417 44718561 43928639 43428636 43238621 42938612
43038476 43668321 44728310 45438300

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KCHS [231645]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 231645
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1244 PM HEAVY RAIN JOHNS ISLAND 32.72N 80.07W
08/23/2008 M5.15 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER RECORDED 5.15 INCHES OF RAIN DURING LAST 48
HOURS.


&&

$$

JRL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 231644
SWODY2
SPC AC 231643

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER CANADA AND THE NRN
TIER OF STATES DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD...FEATURING TROUGHS OVER
THE NERN PACIFIC INTO WRN CANADA/PACIFIC NW AND OVER ERN CANADA INTO
THE NRN STATES. IN THE LOWER LATITUDES...TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WWD ACROSS SRN MS INTO SERN LA.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RETURN NWD ON BACKSIDE OF
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT
LAKES...AND TO THE E OF STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH. THIS PROCESS WILL
OCCUR BENEATH ERN EXTENSION OF EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME
ORIGINATING OVER THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.

CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PERHAPS A WEAK
IMPULSE CRESTING MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. WHILE MID AND
HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE CONSIDERABLE VEERING THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM
WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30 KT. GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...AL/MS/LA...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND RESULTANT SHEAR/SRH WILL GRADUALLY ROTATE
FROM N TO W OF T.S. CENTER...SLOWLY BECOMING DISPLACED FROM ANY
POTENTIALLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT MAY DEVELOP IN ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
NONETHELESS...IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXIST THROUGH FIRST HALF OF
PERIOD TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK
MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOKS ONCE DETAILS
REGARDING INSTABILITY DISTRIBUTION AND MAGNITUDE BECOME MORE
CERTAIN.

..MEAD.. 08/23/2008

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KTAE [231631]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 231631
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1231 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM HEAVY RAIN MONTICELLO 30.54N 83.87W
08/23/2008 M16.20 INCH JEFFERSON FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EM OFFICE REPORTED 16.20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 12 PM EDT
WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS CONTINUING.


&&

$$

GODSEY

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KCHS [231629]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 231629
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1229 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1021 AM TSTM WND DMG PINEORA 32.29N 81.39W
08/22/2008 EFFINGHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE LIMBS WERE REPORTED BLOCKING LOW GROUND ROAD NEAR
PINEORA.

1014 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 SW MELDRIM 32.13N 81.39W
08/22/2008 EFFINGHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED ON INTERSTATE 16 SOUTHBOUND.
TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.


&&

$$

REB

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KMEG [231620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 231620
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE WYNNE 35.24N 90.78W
08/22/2008 CROSS AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING REPORTED ON KILLOUGH ROAD.


&&

$$

MBS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231609
SWODY1
SPC AC 231606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF NRN FL...AND PARTS
OF SRN GA AND SRN AL...

...SERN STATES...
CENTER OF T.S. FAY OVER CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE EXPECTED TO DRIFT WWD
TO NEAR MOB BY 12Z SUN. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF BRIEF
TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL SCALE SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM OFF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
REMAINS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STORM ROTATION...WITH THE PRIMARY
LIMITATION THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

REF MCD 2140 FOR MORE DETAILS CONCERNING THIS THREAT AREA.

...LWR MI INTO MID MS VALLEY...
COLD FRONT FROM ERN UP OF MI SW INTO IND/IL WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR LOW LVL ASCENT/SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN. COMBINATION OF A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 60S F TO NEAR 70 F/...MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000
J/KG SBCAPE. WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP ASCENT/FLOW REMAINING
POST-FRONTAL...PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE PULSE OR MULTICELL...
ESPECIALLY S OF LWR MI. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD...HOWEVER...
PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.

...OK/KS...
CONVECTIVE GENERATED COLD POOL HAS PUSHED SWD INTO NRN OK THIS
MORNING. STRONG HEATING OF A RATHER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS OK
WILL GENERATE MLCAPES TO 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. SCTD
THUNDERSTORMS MOST LIKELY VICINITY CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. WHILE UPPER FLOW IS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15KT...PULSE SEVERE IS POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY THREAT DOWNBURST
WIND GUSTS.

THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS SRN KS AND TONIGHT A 20-30 KT LLJ
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS GIVEN
THE AVAILABLE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE PLAINS ALONG
AND S OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND RATHER WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPS UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE...ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOME MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 08/23/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2140

ACUS11 KWNS 231536
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231535
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-231730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN FL PENINSULA TO EXTREME NRN
FL...CENTRAL/ERN PANHANDLE OF FL...CENTRAL/SRN GA...EXTREME SERN AL.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 857...

VALID 231535Z - 231730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 857 CONTINUES.

SPORADIC MESOCYCLONE/TORNADO POTENTIAL PERSISTS WITH INNER BANDS OF
TS FAY ACROSS CURRENT WW AREA...PRIMARILY INVOF FL COASTAL BEND
INLAND ACROSS ERN PANHANDLE INTO SWRN GA. SFC WARMING SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK/GRADUAL BENEATH THICK CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BANDS.
HOWEVER...INFLOW OF EXTREMELY MOIST GULF AIR MASS -- CHARACTERIZED
BY GPS DERIVED PW VALUES APCHG 2.75 INCH AROUND TLH -- SHOULD YIELD
MLCAPES UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG PER MODIFIED TLH RAOB. BUOYANCY
DIMINISHES INLAND WITH RELATIVE COOL POCKET ANALYZED INVOF FL/GA
BORDER NE TLH...BUT SHEAR WILL INCREASE NWD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
BEING MORE BACKED BENEATH SOMEWHAT STRONGER 850 MB FLOW OVER GA.

ANOTHER AREA WITH BRIEF/SPORADIC TORNADO POTENTIAL -- WHICH IS BEING
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW -- ADJOINS NRN EDGE OF WW 857...EXTENDING
INTO SWRN/S-CENTRAL GA...AND EVENTUALLY EXTREME SERN AL AS FAY
TRANSLATES WWD. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THERMAL AXIS FROM SAV AREA
WSWWD TOWARD DHN. THIS CORRESPONDS TO SWATH OF CLOUD BREAKS AND
THINNESS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN
EXTENT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SAMPLED BY 12Z CHS RAOB.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE ACROSS SERN AL AND SWRN GA -- WITH
0-1 KM SRH COMMONLY 300-500 J/KG BASED ON VARIOUS STORM MOTIONS
INPUT INTO REGIONAL VWP. SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT
ACROSS SERN GA AND WITH TIME OVER S-CENTRAL GA AS OBSERVED FIELD OF
50-60 KT LLJ WINDS SHIFTS WWD. BUOYANCY/SHEAR OVERLAP FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS LIKEWISE MAY EXPAND/SHIFT ACROSS SWRN GA INTO SERN AL
THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. OFFSETTING/LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE
WEAKER SFC CONVERGENCE...AND LESS-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE MODES THAN
FARTHER S ACROSS EXISTING WW.

..EDWARDS.. 08/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

29818503 30588494 31338537 31998535 32588498 32938425
32428286 32008231 31608228 31138237 30448252 28548263
29178279 29128303 29528338 29688340 29768363 29968367
30108402 30048431 29918437 29768461 29608493

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KCHS [231527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 231527
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1127 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND DMG MANASSAS 32.16N 82.02W
08/22/2008 TATTNALL GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE LIMBS REPORTED DOWN BLOCKING SEVERAL ROADS IN
MANASSAS.


&&

$$

REB

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KTSA [231500]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 231500
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM TSTM WND DMG CHECOTAH 35.47N 95.52W
08/23/2008 MCINTOSH OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE TO FOUR INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN. WIND SPEED ESTIMATED AT
60 TO 65 MPH.


&&

$$

PBS

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KTSA [231438]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 231438
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0926 AM TSTM WND GST MUSKOGEE 35.75N 95.37W
08/23/2008 M59 MPH MUSKOGEE OK ASOS


&&

$$

PBS

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KGID [231432]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGID 231432
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
932 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN RED CLOUD 40.09N 98.52W
08/23/2008 M2.40 INCH WEBSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E RED CLOUD 40.09N 98.45W
08/23/2008 M3.00 INCH WEBSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND INFORMATION
NETWORK. RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS.

0930 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW GUIDE ROCK 40.11N 98.43W
08/23/2008 E3.75 INCH WEBSTER NE PUBLIC

BETWEEN 3.5 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KJAX [231422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231422
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1022 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM TORNADO 3 WSW JACKSONVILLE BEAC 30.26N 81.44W
08/22/2008 DUVAL FL NWS EMPLOYEE

THE TOPS OF PINE TREES WERE SNAPPED OFF AT SAN PABLO
SUBDIVISION.


&&

$$

ARS

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KTSA [231358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 231358
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
858 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 AM TSTM WND DMG CHOUTEAU 36.19N 95.34W
08/23/2008 MAYES OK EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO POWER POLES SNAPPED, METAL SHEETS TORN OFF OF ROOFS
ON TWO BUILDINGS.


&&

$$

PBS

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KTOP [231318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 231318
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
817 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0817 AM HEAVY RAIN WAMEGO 39.20N 96.30W
08/23/2008 E2.25 INCH POTTAWATOMIE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BYRNE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231248
SWODY1
SPC AC 231245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FL...GA AND AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
T.S FAY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY W OR WNW THIS PERIOD AS RIDGE
PERSISTS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS...AND WRN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES E
TO NEAR JAMES BAY. AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONTARIO
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE E/SE ACROSS THE GRT LKS...OH VLY...AND THE
OZARKS...WHILE LEE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NRN AND
CNTRL HI PLNS.

...SERN STATES...
T.S. FAY APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH W THAT ITS LOW LVL
CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO TAP RICH MOISTURE OVER THE FAR ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS FAY CONTINUES SLOWLY W OR SLIGHTLY WNWWD...CONVECTIVE
CELLS DEVELOPING IN ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE BANDS EXTENDING S/SE INTO
THE NERN GULF MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY AS
MODEST SFC HEATING OCCURS ON E SIDE OF BANDS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE STORMS MAY FORM IN ZONE OF CONFLUENT BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LOW LVL FLOW OVER SRN AND PERHAPS CNTRL
GA...E/NE OF FAY. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND ENLARGED 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOW LVL MESOCYCLONES
AND ISOLD TORNADOES. THIS THREAT WILL DEVELOP W ACROSS WRN PARTS OF
FL PANHANDLE AND SRN AL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...LWR MI INTO MID MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED COLD FRONT FROM MI SW INTO IND/IL WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR LOW LVL ASCENT/SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTN...DESPITE CONTINUED ENE WITHDRAWAL OF ASSOCIATED UPR TROUGH
INTO CANADA. COMBINATION OF A FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S F/...MODEST MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...AND SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD POCKETS OF 1500 TO PERHAPS 2000
J/KG SBCAPE. WITH THE STRONGEST DEEP ASCENT/FLOW REMAINING
POST-FRONTAL...PRIMARY STORM MODE SHOULD BE PULSE OR MULTICELL...
ESPECIALLY S OF MI. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD...HOWEVER... PRODUCE
LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

...NRN KS/SRN NEB TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...
WRN PART OF COLD FRONT WILL REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE HI PLNS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXIST INVOF BOUNDARY THIS AFTN...BUT WEAK
CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY WARM MID LVL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
LIMIT STRENGTH/COVERAGE OF STORMS. STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
ACROSS NRN KS AND SRN NEB IN DEVELOPING WAA ZONE N OF FRONT.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT ISOLD HAIL WITH SOME STORMS.
WHILE THE CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CLUSTER...WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/LARGE HAIL.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 08/23/2008

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KJAX [231216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 231216
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM FLOOD BRANFORD 29.96N 82.93W
08/23/2008 SUWANNEE FL EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO STREETS WERE FLOODED IN BRANFORD AND NEAR OBRIEN.
ROAD CREWS WERE DISPATCHED TO CLEAR DEBRIS AND ALLOW CARS
TO PASS THROUGH ON 69TH ROAD NEAR BRANFORD.


&&

$$

ARS

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KGID [231212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 231212
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
712 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN RED CLOUD 40.09N 98.52W
08/23/2008 M2.40 INCH WEBSTER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 E RED CLOUD 40.09N 98.45W
08/23/2008 M3.00 INCH WEBSTER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM NEBRASKA RAINFALL ASSESSMENT AND INFORMATION
NETWORK. RAINFALL FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS.


&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KTOP [231207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 231207
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W CORNING 39.66N 96.06W
08/23/2008 E2.50 INCH NEMAHA KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BYRNE

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KTOP [231206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 231206
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
706 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0703 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW BEATTIE 39.84N 96.52W
08/23/2008 E2.30 INCH MARSHALL KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BYRNE

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 857

WWUS20 KWNS 231127
SEL7
SPC WW 231127
FLZ000-GAZ000-CWZ000-231900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 857
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
720 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 720 AM UNTIL
300 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
MOULTRIE GEORGIA TO 50 MILES SOUTH OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN STRENGTH IN THE PAST
90 MINS OR SO ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF VLD SSE
TO NEAR TPA. THIS MAY REFLECT INCREASED ASCENT ALONG THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE...AND/OR INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE OFF THE FAR ERN GULF AS T.S.
FAY CONTINUES TO EDGE WWD. LOW LVL SHEAR DECREASES FROM N TO S
ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE...BUT APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT LOW
LVL ROTATION WITH ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AS FAR S AS CITRUS AND
HERNANDO COUNTIES IN FL. GIVEN INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW AND ONSET
OF MODEST SFC HEATING...SETUP MAY SUPPORT ISOLD TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 17035.


...CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2139

ACUS11 KWNS 231040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231040
FLZ000-231245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN FL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 231040Z - 231245Z

TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR
WHETHER THIS WILL BE MORE THAN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT
THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED.

AS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WEST OF
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...AN INFLUX OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
CONTRIBUTING TO DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A DEVELOPING
CONFLUENCE BAND ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
EXTENDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF CROSS
CITY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE
EASTERLY REGIME FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS ARE STILL SIZABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS MOST UNSTABLE
NEAR IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

..KERR.. 08/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29728367 30268388 30368318 29778289 29258282 29198328

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230817
SWOD48
SPC AC 230817

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE
DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD. FROM HERE...THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A DEEPENING LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD
FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AXIS FORECAST TO BE
PRESENT IN THE MID-MO VALLEY AND UPPER MS VALLEY. HOWEVER...TIMING
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM REMAIN HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE. ATTM...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS TO FORECAST A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ACROSS THE NCNTRL
STATES.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230723
SWODY3
SPC AC 230720

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE REMNANTS OF FAY ARE FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
MOVE SLOWLY WWD ACROSS SERN LA MONDAY. NORTH OF THE CENTER ACROSS
MUCH OF ERN LA AND MS...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES AND ABUNDANT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR ROTATING
STORMS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS DEFINED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A LEE
TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WITH AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY FROM WRN KS NWD INTO WRN NEB AND WRN SD. AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2138

ACUS11 KWNS 230706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230705
MOZ000-KSZ000-230900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2138
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE KS INTO NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 230705Z - 230900Z

STORMS MAY REMAIN STRONG ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS REGION APPEARS MOSTLY
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LARGE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...TOWARD EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS FORCING MAY HAVE BEEN RECENTLY ENHANCED BY THE
NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
WEAK. BUT...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
...BENEATH MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE AS HIGH AS 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL...AND COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAY PROMOTE SOME SMALL
HAIL...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED DOWNBURST OR TWO. BUT... APPARENT DEEP
MOIST SUB-CLOUD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES PROBABLY WILL MITIGATE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

BAND OF STORMS MAY APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
MANHATTAN AND AREAS NEAR/EAST OF KANSAS CITY BETWEEN NOW AND 09-10Z.
THEREAFTER...VEERING/WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

..KERR.. 08/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

39549691 39689645 39769575 39849512 39919453 39759365
38869373 38759484 38699615 38619673 39139724

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KCHS [230642]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 230642
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
242 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0239 AM TSTM WND GST FRIPP ISLAND 32.32N 80.48W
08/23/2008 M48 MPH BEAUFORT SC MESONET


&&

$$

33

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KPUB [230604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 230604
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1204 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 PM HEAVY RAIN CUCHARA 37.38N 105.10W
08/22/2008 M2.75 INCH HUERFANO CO PUBLIC

RAIN FELL BETWEEN 945 AND 1145 PM MDT. CHUCHARAS RIVER
RUNNING FULL AND FAST.


&&

$$

LW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230557
SWODY1
SPC AC 230554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN AL...SRN GA
AND NRN FL...

...NE THROUGH CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...

TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME NERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FL AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WWD
SATURDAY. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
CELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN
INTENSITY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS DEVELOP BETWEEN THE BANDS.
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS NE OF THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN OUTER RAINBANDS.

...LOWER MI THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...

COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO LOWER MI
AND THE MID MS VALLEY AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NE THROUGH
ONTARIO. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WILL EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARMS SECTOR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT MLCAPE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY EXIST TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED
MODEST CAP. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL
LEAVING MODEST BULK SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY
MULTICELLS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.

...NRN KS THROUGH SRN NEB...

TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER PARTS OF KS AND MAY
BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT
BE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS.

..DIAL/JEWELL.. 08/23/2008

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KTOP [230550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 230550
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1250 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1237 AM HAIL 4 WSW MUNDEN 39.88N 97.60W
08/23/2008 E0.75 INCH REPUBLIC KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

WOLTERS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230532
SWODY2
SPC AC 230530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...
TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
MOVE SLOWLY WWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF AL AND MS SUNDAY
MOVING INTO SE LA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINBANDS WILL LIKELY EXTEND NWD
FROM THE CENTER INTO CNTRL AL AND CNTRL MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY SHOW STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES AND LOW-LCL HEIGHTS SUGGESTING CONDITIONS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAY EXIST IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION.

...CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE FROM ERN WY SSEWD INTO ERN
CO. MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND NERN CO MOVING EWD INTO
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE BY LATE AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR RESULTING IN ABOUT 30 KT 0F 0-6 KM
SHEAR. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM...STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
BETTER ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.

..BROYLES.. 08/23/2008

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KTAE [230529]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KTAE 230529
LSRTAE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
129 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1231 AM TROPICAL STORM TALLAHASSEE 30.44N 84.28W
08/22/2008 LEON FL NEWSPAPER

SELENA ROAD AT OLD PINE ACRES AT WAKULLA BORDER IS
UNDERWATER. TREES BLOCKING CENTERVILLE ROAD AT VARIOUS
SITES. TREE DOWN AT MAHAN DRIVE HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
AREA POWER OUTAGE. TREE DOWN AT APALACHEE PARKWAY AND
CEDAR ROAD. POWER OUTAGE HAS AFFECTED AROUND 800
CUSTOMERS.


&&

$$

BLOCK

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