SWODY1
SPC AC 230554
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF SERN AL...SRN GA
AND NRN FL...
...NE THROUGH CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA...
TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME NERN GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF FL AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY WWD
SATURDAY. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR DETAILS. CONVECTIVE
CELLS DEVELOPING WITHIN OUTER RAINBANDS MAY UNDERGO SOME INCREASE IN
INTENSITY SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF BREAKS DEVELOP BETWEEN THE BANDS.
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS NE OF THE
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN OUTER RAINBANDS.
...LOWER MI THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AREA...
COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO LOWER MI
AND THE MID MS VALLEY AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NE THROUGH
ONTARIO. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WILL EXIST IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARMS SECTOR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT MLCAPE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FORCING AND LOW LEVEL
JET WILL SHIFT NEWD INTO CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY EXIST TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTED
MODEST CAP. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN POST FRONTAL
LEAVING MODEST BULK SHEAR IN WARM SECTOR SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY
MULTICELLS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT OVERALL
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.
...NRN KS THROUGH SRN NEB...
TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER PARTS OF KS AND MAY
BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEAK
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
FROM NRN KS INTO SRN NEB WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT WEAK CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT
BE FAVORABLE FOR LONGER LIVED UPDRAFTS.
..DIAL/JEWELL.. 08/23/2008
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