KSGX [270418]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 270418
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
817 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0809 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 E ESCONDIDO 33.14N 117.00W
11/26/2008 E0.00 INCH SAN DIEGO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROCKS AND MUD ACROSS HWY78 AND BANDY CYN RD.

&&

$$

NISLA

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KSGX [270402]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 270402
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
802 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HEAVY RAIN PAUMA VALLEY 33.30N 116.98W
11/26/2008 E0.00 INCH SAN DIEGO CA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROAD CLOSURE ON HWY76 NR RINCON AT 1930. CAR STRANDED ON
ROADWAY AT 1845 DUE TO 10 INS. OF WATER. APPEARS THAT
PLAINSTED AND POTRERO CREEKS MAY HAVE OVERFLOWED.

&&

$$

NISLA

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KSGX [270336]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 270336
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
736 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 PM FLOOD PHELAN 34.43N 117.57W
11/26/2008 SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAFFIC IS BEING RE-ROUTED DUE TO FLOODING ON PALMDALE RD
AND SHEEP CREEK AND ON MONTE CRISTO RD, WEST OF HWY395.

&&

$$

NISLA

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KHNX [270246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 270246
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
646 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HEAVY RAIN CALIFORNIA CITY 35.19N 117.81W
11/26/2008 M1.48 INCH KERN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JBRO

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KSGX [270153]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 270153
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
553 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HEAVY RAIN RUNNING SPRINGS 34.21N 117.11W
11/26/2008 E1.00 INCH SAN BERNARDINO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER OBSERVED HEAVY RAIN FROM TS HAS CAUSED
MUD AND ROCKS TO FLOW ONTO HWY330 NR RUNNING SPRINGS.
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PEA SIZE HAIL WAS ALSO
REPORTED.

&&

$$

NISLA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270033
SWODY1
SPC AC 270031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PARTS OF SRN CA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL AREAS...LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION HAVE BEEN
INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND ISOLATE/BRIEF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BENEATH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL AND SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS MAY CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02-03Z. THEREAFTER...AS THE NEXT
IMPULSE...NOW STILL DIGGING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST...FINALLY PIVOTS INLAND...COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDER
PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY INTO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL...BUT STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 11/27/2008

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KLOX [270013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 270013
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
413 PM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 SW BURBANK 34.17N 118.35W
11/26/2008 LOS ANGELES CA PUBLIC

ONE FOOT OF MUDDY WATER ACROSS FOREST LAWN DRIVE BELOW
BARHAM BURN AREA REPORTED BY NWS VOLUNTEER

&&

$$

MJ

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KGYX [262158]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KGYX 262158
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
458 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG EXETER 42.98N 70.95W
11/25/2008 ROCKINGHAM NH AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 111 AT GREENLEAF ROAD

1204 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HAMPTON FALLS 42.92N 70.86W
11/25/2008 ROCKINGHAM NH AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON DRINKWATER ROAD

0845 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WASHINGTON 44.27N 69.37W
11/25/2008 KNOX ME PUBLIC

LARGE PINE DOWN 40-50FT TALL 2-3FT BASE DIAMETER

1046 AM HIGH SURF SACO 43.50N 70.44W
11/25/2008 YORK ME EMERGENCY MNGR

SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND WASH OVER - SEVERAL DINGHYS
SUNK

1144 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG KENNEBUNKPORT 43.36N 70.48W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON OCEAN AVE.

1147 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG KITTERY 43.09N 70.74W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN / HALEY ROAD AND PEPPERELL ROAD

1152 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HAMPTON 42.94N 70.84W
11/25/2008 ROCKINGHAM NH AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN OCEAN BLVD AT BRADFORD AVE

1153 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH BERWICK 43.23N 70.81W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN OLD FIELDS ROAD

1154 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ELIOT 43.15N 70.80W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN SHOREYS BROOK LANE

1157 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HAMPTON FALLS 42.92N 70.86W
11/25/2008 ROCKINGHAM NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON CRANK ROAD

1159 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROCHESTER 43.30N 70.98W
11/25/2008 STRAFFORD NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN ON ENGLAND ROAD

1231 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH BERWICK 43.23N 70.81W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 91.

1240 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WAKEFIELD 43.57N 71.03W
11/25/2008 CARROLL NH AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 109.

1244 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOUTH PARIS 44.22N 70.51W
11/25/2008 OXFORD ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRED SOWN ON STREAKED MOUNTAIN ROAD.

1249 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG TAMWORTH 43.86N 71.26W
11/25/2008 CARROLL NH AMATEUR RADIO

TREE DOWN IN ROADWAY ROUTE 113A.

0102 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ACTON 43.53N 70.91W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON ACTON RIDGE RD.

0107 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ALFRED 43.48N 70.72W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

WIRES DOWN ON ROUTE 111 NEAR SANFORD.

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WHITEFIELD 44.38N 71.61W
11/25/2008 COOS NH TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN ON WIRES IN WHITEFIELD.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG LEWISTON 44.10N 70.22W
11/25/2008 ANDROSCOGGIN ME AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON WIRES.

0405 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG WATERBORO 43.54N 70.72W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON WIRES - WEST RD.

0435 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG FREEPORT 43.86N 70.10W
11/25/2008 CUMBERLAND ME TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWN.

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BRUNSWICK 43.91N 69.94W
11/25/2008 CUMBERLAND ME AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON DURHAM RD.

0530 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG PORTLAND 43.67N 70.21W
11/25/2008 CUMBERLAND ME AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0535 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARPSWELL 43.80N 69.98W
11/25/2008 CUMBERLAND ME AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG OLD ORCHARD BEACH 43.52N 70.38W
11/25/2008 YORK ME NEWSPAPER

TREES DOWN

0625 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG HOLLIS 43.60N 70.59W
11/25/2008 YORK ME AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND WIRES DOWN.

0800 PM FLOOD BUXTON 43.64N 70.52W
11/25/2008 YORK ME NEWSPAPER

ROUTE 112 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

0815 PM FLOOD FARMINGTON 43.40N 71.07W
11/25/2008 STRAFFORD NH PUBLIC

STREAMS OUT THEIR BANKS

0735 AM FLOOD TURNER 44.26N 70.26W
11/26/2008 ANDROSCOGGIN ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

ANDROSCOGGIN SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTS WATER WASHING
OVER BRIDGE AT CENTER BRIDGE RD.

0735 AM FLOOD TURNER 44.26N 70.26W
11/26/2008 ANDROSCOGGIN ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

ANDROSCOGGIN SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTS WATER WASHING
OVER BRIDGE ON ALLEN RD.

&&

$$

MC

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KCAR [262058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCAR 262058
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
358 PM EST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N SEDGWICK 44.35N 68.62W
11/25/2008 M74.00 MPH HANCOCK ME PUBLIC

SEDGWICK RIDGE

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE BLUE HILL 44.37N 68.56W
11/25/2008 HANCOCK ME PUBLIC

TREE ON POWER LINE AT CARTER POINT

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BLUE HILL 44.41N 68.59W
11/25/2008 HANCOCK ME PUBLIC

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0936 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROBBINSTON 45.08N 67.11W
11/25/2008 WASHINGTON ME TRAINED SPOTTER

BRANCHES ON ROAD FROM CALAIS TO ROBBINSTON

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SURRY 44.50N 68.50W
11/25/2008 HANCOCK ME CO-OP OBSERVER

TREES DOWN

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SWANS ISLAND 44.15N 68.45W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND WIRES DOWN. MANY ROADS CLOSED DUE DOWNED TREES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MACHIASPORT 44.70N 67.40W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR

FEW BOATS ADRIFT.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MILLBRIDGE 44.54N 67.88W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN.FLOATS ON THE PIER DAMAGED.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BANGOR 44.80N 68.78W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SULLIVAN 44.52N 68.20W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOMESVILLE 44.36N 68.33W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG STEUBEN 44.51N 67.97W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BROOKLIN 44.27N 68.57W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HOLDEN 44.75N 68.68W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED POWER LIES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ELLSWORTH 44.54N 68.42W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WALTHAM 44.71N 68.34W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES IN
TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LUBEC 44.86N 66.98W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DEDHAM 44.69N 68.66W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BREWER 44.80N 68.76W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HANCOCK 44.53N 68.25W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE TREMONT 44.27N 68.32W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN SOUTHWEST HARBOR.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAR HARBOR 44.39N 68.20W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROUTE 3 SHUT DOWN. COUNTY ROAD CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES
AND WIRES. 2 BOATS AGROUND. MANY POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WINTER HARBOR 44.40N 68.08W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG GOULDSBORO 44.48N 68.04W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0203 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SORRENTO 44.47N 68.18W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAMOINE 44.45N 68.29W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE TOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SURRY 44.50N 68.50W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARIAVILLE 44.72N 68.42W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT TOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG DEER ISLE 44.22N 68.68W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR

MANY TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES. SOME ROADS ARE BLOCKED.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BLUE HILL 44.41N 68.59W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN WITH NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SEDGWICK 44.30N 68.62W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORRINGTON 44.73N 68.83W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG OLD TOWN 44.93N 68.65W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGE ON CENTRE STREET.

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG AURORA 44.85N 68.33W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.

0245 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ADDISON 45.09N 67.47W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG VEAZIE 44.84N 68.71W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWRR OUTAGES.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MILO 45.25N 68.99W
11/26/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES DOWN.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MEDWAY 45.61N 68.53W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

A FEW POWER OUTAGES.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MEDFORD 45.29N 68.85W
11/26/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME UTILITY COMPANY

SOME POWER OUTAGES IN TOWN.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CALAIS 45.19N 67.28W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGES AND A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

JAH/TM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261957
SWODY1
SPC AC 261955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THREE PRIMARY SHORTWAVES
THIS PERIOD. EASTERNMOST OF THESE...ANCHORED BY CYCLONE CENTERED
OVER SWRN QUE -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING NWD...ALONG WITH
NEARLY COLLOCATED SFC CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...STG OPEN WAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SASK/AB BORDER SSWWD
ACROSS WRN MT -- WILL PROCEED ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED INITIALLY OVER
WRN/NRN MT -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BEFORE 27/12Z.

MEANWHILE...UPPER CYCLONE THAT NOW COVERS PORTIONS SRN CA AND
ADJACENT/OFFSHORE WATERS -- WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD
ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE SEVERAL VORTICITY LOBES ORBIT
COMMON CENTER. BEST DEFINED OF THESE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA
APPEARS TO BE SW OF CHANNEL ISLANDS NEAR 33N122W AS OF 19Z...AND MAY
BECOME PRIMARY CENTER OF UPPER CYCLONE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SRN CA
THROUGH LATE EVENING. ASSOCIATED/TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD PIVOT NEWD
ACROSS NRN BAJA AND CO RIVER DELTA REGION THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

...SWRN CONUS...
SMALL PLUME OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE -- WITH SFC DEW POINTS
60S F -- IS ANALYZED ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
EXTREME SERN CA AND EXTREME SWRN AZ...INCLUDING IMPERIAL VALLEY AND
LOWER CO RIVER AREA. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER HAS PRECLUDED STG HEATING
OVER THIS REGION...SFC TEMPS UPPER 60S INTO LOW 70S F WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS...WITH MLCAPES
POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 500 J/KG. 0-6 KM SHEAR EXCEEDING 50
KT...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40-50 KT -- IS PROBABLE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS IN SUPPORT OF A FEW ORGANIZED TSTMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR
SVR LEVELS POSSIBLE.

...SRN CA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...
POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
PRODUCING HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS...ALONG WITH SECONDARY POTENTIAL FOR
NONSUPERCELLULAR WATERSPOUTS. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN
RATHER SPARSE SO FAR...BENEATH COLD-CORE REGION OF CYCLONE...VIS
IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS INDICATE CONVECTION INCREASING IN ARC
LOCATED S OF SANTA ROSA AND SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS. STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SFC TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOW 60S CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
250-600 J/KG OVER WATER IN MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...WITH SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS. LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CYCLONE CENTER WHERE GRADIENTS ALOFT ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK. THIS MARINE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED...INCLUDING PORTIONS ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS AND
ISLANDS...UNTIL STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT FIELD MOVES INLAND LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2008

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KLOX [261848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 261848
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
1047 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE SANTA BARBARA 34.46N 119.68W
11/25/2008 SANTA BARBARA CA COUNTY OFFICIAL

LARGE ROCKS AND MUD ON PARTS OF HIGHWAY 192 AND MOUNTAIN
DRIVE FROM THE TEA BURN AREA IN THE VICINITY OF WESTMONT
COLLEGE

&&

$$

MJ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261732
SWODY2
SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH DAY-2 WILL BE DOMINATED BY SERIES OF STG
AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND LOWS. EASTERNMOST OF THESE --
CYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SERN QUE AND SERN ONT -- IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NWD ACROSS WRN QUE. AS THIS OCCURS...UPSTREAM/OPEN-WAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AB AND WRN MT
-- WILL DIG ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...REACHING
VICINITY LS/WI BY 28/00Z BEFORE BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED AND
ENTRAINED INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AROUND WRN QUE VORTEX.
MEANWHILE...SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW MANIFEST AS BROAD/CLOSED
CYCLONE OFFSHORE SRN CA -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD TO CENTRAL/SRN GREAT
BASIN AND BEGIN DEVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH BY 28/00Z. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE EWD INTO CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND ALSO BECOME
POSITIVELY TILTED AND WEAKER DURING ENSUING 12 HOURS. PORTION OF
UPPER LOW -- NOW OVER GULF OF AK -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
BC AS OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...REACHING SRN AB AND NRN ROCKIES BY
28/12Z AS RIDGE BREAKS DOWN N OF CA LOW/TROUGH.

DESPITE RELATIVELY COMPLEX AND SOMEWHAT INTERDEPENDENT CHAIN OF
HEIGHT TENDENCIES RELATED TO THESE FOUR PRIMARY
PERTURBATIONS...REMARKABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONG MOST OPERATIONAL
PROGS AND SREF MEMBERS. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IS STG IN THIS BASIC
SCENARIO.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER NRN MT -- PRECEDING NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FCST TO MOVE QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS DAY-1. BY 28/00Z...FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SFC LOW OVER
UPPER MI/LS AREA SWD ACROSS IL...THEN SWWD OVER AR AND W-CENTRAL TX.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS TN VALLEY...NRN
MS...AND CENTRAL/SW TX BY END OF PERIOD.

...SWRN CONUS...
ALTHOUGH UPPER TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...SUFFICIENT LARGE
SCALE ASCENT/COOLING ALOFT WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS REGION TO SUPPORT
TSTM POTENTIAL...IN COMBINATION WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. DIABATIC SFC HEATING DURING MIDDAY AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BOOST LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN AZ BEFORE TROUGH PASSAGE. MRGL BUOYANCY
-- E.G. MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 300 J/KG AND WEAK CINH -- COMBINED WITH
LOCALLY ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS -- MAY PROMOTE A FEW ORGANIZED
TSTMS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND STG GUSTS.

...S-CENTRAL TX...WEST GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...AMIDST TIGHTENING HEIGHT
GRADIENT ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH APCHG SWRN CONUS TROUGH. IN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT
COOLING ALOFT...AND WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL WAA
EXPECTED...LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK AND
WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF PERIOD. SO
WILL LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE INVOF
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 60S F ARE POSSIBLE
OVER REGION AS PART OF MODIFIED RETURN FLOW REGIME...ALONG WITH DEW
POINTS 14-16 DEG C AROUND 925 MB. AREAS OF MLCAPES 500-800 J/KG MAY
DEVELOP -- ROOTED AT SFC BEFORE 00Z AND PERHAPS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
AFTERWARD.

..EDWARDS.. 11/26/2008

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KCAR [261641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KCAR 261641
LSRCAR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1141 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N SEDGWICK 44.35N 68.62W
11/25/2008 M74.00 MPH HANCOCK ME PUBLIC

SEDGWICK RIDGE

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 3 SSE BLUE HILL 44.37N 68.56W
11/25/2008 HANCOCK ME PUBLIC

TREE ON POWER LINE AT CARTER POINT

0930 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG BLUE HILL 44.41N 68.59W
11/25/2008 HANCOCK ME PUBLIC

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0936 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ROBBINSTON 45.08N 67.11W
11/25/2008 WASHINGTON ME TRAINED SPOTTER

BRANCHES ON ROAD FROM CALAIS TO ROBBINSTON

0940 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG SURRY 44.50N 68.50W
11/25/2008 HANCOCK ME CO-OP OBSERVER

TREES DOWN

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SULLIVAN 44.52N 68.20W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SOMESVILLE 44.36N 68.33W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG STEUBEN 44.51N 67.97W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WALTHAM 44.71N 68.34W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN WITH NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES IN
TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LUBEC 44.86N 66.98W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG GOULDSBORO 44.48N 68.04W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG WINTER HARBOR 44.40N 68.08W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAR HARBOR 44.39N 68.20W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROUTE 3 SHUT DOWN. COUNTY ROAD CLOSED DUE TO DOWNED TREES
AND WIRES. 2 BOATS AGROUND. MANY POWER OUTAGES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE TREMONT 44.27N 68.32W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN SOUTHWEST HARBOR.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SWANS ISLAND 44.15N 68.45W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND WIRES DOWN. MANY ROADS CLOSED DUE DOWNED TREES.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MACHIASPORT 44.70N 67.40W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR

FEW BOATS ADRIFT.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MILLBRIDGE 44.54N 67.88W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN.FLOATS ON THE PIER DAMAGED.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BROOKLIN 44.27N 68.57W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES WITH TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
TOWN.

0203 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SORRENTO 44.47N 68.18W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG OLD TOWN 44.93N 68.65W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGE ON CENTRE STREET.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG LAMOINE 44.45N 68.29W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE TOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MARIAVILLE 44.72N 68.42W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT TOWN.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SURRY 44.50N 68.50W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG ORRINGTON 44.73N 68.83W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG SEDGWICK 44.30N 68.62W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN. NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES.

0230 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BLUE HILL 44.41N 68.59W
11/26/2008 HANCOCK ME UTILITY COMPANY

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT TOWN WITH NUMEROUS
POWER OUTAGES.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG VEAZIE 44.84N 68.71W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

POWRR OUTAGES.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MEDWAY 45.61N 68.53W
11/26/2008 PENOBSCOT ME UTILITY COMPANY

A FEW POWER OUTAGES.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MEDFORD 45.29N 68.85W
11/26/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME UTILITY COMPANY

SOME POWER OUTAGES IN TOWN.

0300 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG MILO 45.25N 68.99W
11/26/2008 PISCATAQUIS ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW TREES DOWN.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CALAIS 45.19N 67.28W
11/26/2008 WASHINGTON ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER OUTAGES AND A FEW TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

JAH/TM

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KVEF [261622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 261622
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
822 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 WNW EAST LAS VEGAS 36.11N 115.07W
11/26/2008 E0.30 INCH CLARK NV BROADCAST MEDIA

POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WAS REPORTED BY LAS VEGAS AREA
MEDIA ON NORTHBOUND MOUNTAIN VISTA STREET.

&&

$$

STACHELSKI

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261609
SWODY1
SPC AC 261606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST THIS MORNING APPEARS TO BE
COMPOSED OF TWO SEPARATE VORT LOBES...ONE EJECTING INLAND ACROSS SRN
CA AND ANOTHER STILL DIGGING SSEWD AROUND 32N/123W. LEADING IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BROADER MOIST
CONVECTIVE PLUME SPREADING NEWD INTO CENTRAL CA/SRN NV AND EWD INTO
CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. WITH MODEST HEATING IN WAKE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...EXPECT AREAS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG IMPULSE NOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WHICH
WILL DRIVE MAIN UPPER LOW INLAND DURING LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

/SRN CA COAST/
WILL LIKELY SEE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION INCREASE UNDER MID LEVEL COLD
POCKET OFF THE SRN CA COAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH ASSOCIATED RISK OF
BRIEF WATERSPOUTS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES ALONG AND JUST OFF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. RISK OF SMALL
HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED AS STRONGER CORES SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SRN CA
THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

/LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY/
A SEPARATE AREA OF STRONGER STORMS MAY FORM ACROSS THIS REGION LATER
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. MLCAPE MAY REACH 500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE MID 70S F AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE 50S F. THE MORE INTENSE CORES
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF HAIL/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...WITH A FEW EVENTS NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS...AS STORMS INCREASE AND SPREAD EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THE EVENING.

..EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/26/2008

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KGYX [261247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KGYX 261247
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
747 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM FLOOD TURNER 44.26N 70.26W
11/26/2008 ANDROSCOGGIN ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

ANDROSCOGGIN SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTS WATER WASHING
OVER BRIDGE ON ALLEN RD.

&&

$$

DAG

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KGYX [261245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KGYX 261245
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
745 AM EST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM FLOOD TURNER 44.26N 70.26W
11/26/2008 ANDROSCOGGIN ME LAW ENFORCEMENT

ANDROSCOGGIN SHERIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTS WATER WASHING
OVER BRIDGE AT CENTER BRIDGE RD.

&&

$$

DAG

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KSGX [261036]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS56 KSGX 261036
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
236 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 AM HEAVY RAIN COSTA MESA 33.67N 117.91W
11/26/2008 M2.50 INCH ORANGE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN COSTA MESA SINCE 730 PM.
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING

&&

$$

PURPURA

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KSGX [261031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 261031
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
231 AM PST WED NOV 26 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0228 AM HEAVY RAIN COSTA MESA 33.67N 117.91W
11/26/2008 M0.00 INCH ORANGE CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN IN COSTA MESA SINCE 730 PM.
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING

&&

$$

PURPURA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260952
SWOD48
SPC AC 260951

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING OF THE SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES MAKING UP THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH.

IN GENERAL...THE MODELS TAKE A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS THE GULF/FL...WITH PERHAPS A VERY LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DAY 4 /SAT. 11-29/ SWD INTO
FL WITH TIME.

MEANWHILE...MODELS SEEM TO SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7 /MON. 12-1 TO
TUE. 12-2/...AHEAD OF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL
UPPER FEATURE CROSSING NRN MEXICO.

OVERALL HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE THREAT WHICH MAY EVOLVE THIS PERIOD
WOULD LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIMITED IN MAGNITUDE DUE TO MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMICS...AND COMBINED WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...THIS
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN OUTLOOK AREA THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 11/26/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260810
SWODY3
SPC AC 260807

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0207 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE S CENTRAL/SERN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WHILE WEAKENING/BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF NOAM.

WHILE STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS WILL PRECLUDE DEEP
CONVECTION...A SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE INVOF THE GULF COAST MAY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE NAM KEEPING
THE BOUNDARY ONSHORE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE BOUNDARY MORE QUICKLY SWD INTO THE
GULF.

SHOULD THE BOUNDARY -- AND MOIST WARM SECTOR -- REMAIN ONSHORE
LONGER PER THE NAM SOLUTION...A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT COULD
EXIST. HOWEVER...LIMITED NATURE OF ANY POTENTIAL THREAT AND LACK OF
CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A
THREAT AREA ATTM.

..GOSS.. 11/26/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260656
SWODY2
SPC AC 260653

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WHILE AN UPPER VORTEX STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS OVER SERN CANADA
AND THE NERN CONUS.

COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL HINDER DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND THE
S CENTRAL CONUS...WHERE COLD AIR ALOFT SPREADING EWD...AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CONUS...WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

...PORTIONS OF AZ AND NM...
COLD AIR ALOFT /-20C AT H5/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH...RESULTING IN MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA. THOUGH STRONGER SHEAR WILL
NATURALLY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE COLD POCKET...A FEW
VIGOROUS/LOW-TOPPED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL COULD OCCUR AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS THIS REGION.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SERN TX INTO NRN/WRN LA...
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AIDING IN MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION
WITH TIME...AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT -- PARTICULARLY DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED/STEADY INCREASE IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH TIME...A FEW
STRONGER CELLS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. WHILE OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL -- AND THE SEVERE THREAT
IN GENERAL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS.

..GOSS.. 11/26/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2395

ACUS11 KWNS 260601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260600
CAZ000-260800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2395
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST WED NOV 26 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN CA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 260600Z - 260800Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CA THROUGH MOST
OF THE NIGHT. FAVORABLE TERRAIN ORIENTATION AND RECENT BURN AREAS
WILL MAKE PORTIONS OF SRN CA ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING
AS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS DRAIN INTO LOWER BASINS.

A STRONG UPPER LOW NOTED ON WV IMAGERY ROUGHLY 250 MI W OF SANTA
BARBARA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT ESEWD TOWARD THE CA COAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. OBSERVED PWAT ON BOTH 00Z SOUNDINGS AND GOES DATA
INDICATE VALUES NEAR OR OVER 1 INCH...NEARLY 150 TO 200% ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. WV IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS...AND SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING NWD
WITH ALMOST CONTINUOUS RAINFALL ACROSS SRN CA. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SLY FLOW IN MID LEVELS AND BELOW SHOWN ON VWP DATA WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR TRAINING OF STORMS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK FRONT. A SECOND AREA WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
VORT MAX BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...SEEN ON WV IMAGERY APPROXIMATELY
250 MI W OF SAN DIEGO. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ONSHORE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES.

RECENT BURN AREAS AND FAVORABLE TERRAIN ORIENTATION...ESPECIALLY
STEEP TERRAIN...WILL MAKE MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH
FLOODING.

..HURLBUT.. 11/26/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...SGX...HNX...LOX...MTR...

LAT...LON 34362038 35082079 36262028 36251947 35881874 35111747
33651632 32641613 32491715 33481763 34041889 34351954
34362038

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260540
SWODY1
SPC AC 260537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2008

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD WILL BE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE FAR ERN
PACIFIC INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND LOWER CO VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THIS LOW...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS NRN BAJA AND THE NRN GULF OF CA INTO SRN AZ TONIGHT. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER SYSTEM EWD
INTO AZ.

...SERN CA INTO CNTRL/SRN AZ...

LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD THROUGH THE SWRN
DESERTS IN ADVANCE OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WITH PW VALUES
INCREASING TO AOA ONE INCH. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /INCREASING TO 7.0-7.5 C PER KM/ TO
SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG.

DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD /WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS/ EWD
ACROSS SRN CA INTO WRN AZ TODAY...AND ACROSS AZ OVERNIGHT. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST ROBUST TSTM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER FAR SERN CA INTO PARTS OF SWRN AND S-CNTRL AZ THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...STEEPENING
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODESTLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 11/26/2008

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