KARX [250253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KARX 250253
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
953 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W DODGE CENTER 44.03N 92.93W
09/24/2007 DODGE MN PUBLIC

LARGE DUMPSTER MOVED 50 FT...TIN STRIPPED OFF BARN...2
OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED...LEAVES STRIPPED OFF TREES...LOST
SEVERAL LARGE TREES IN YARD

0652 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W DODGE CENTER 44.03N 92.89W
09/24/2007 M42.00 MPH DODGE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

0705 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DODGE CENTER 44.03N 92.85W
09/24/2007 E45.00 MPH DODGE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

0705 PM TSTM WND GST DODGE CENTER 44.03N 92.85W
09/24/2007 M45.00 MPH DODGE MN AMATEUR RADIO

0711 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E HAYFIELD 43.89N 92.81W
09/24/2007 M52.00 MPH DODGE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM TSTM WND GST ORONOCO 44.16N 92.54W
09/24/2007 M45.00 MPH OLMSTED MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0727 PM TSTM WND GST ROCHESTER 44.01N 92.48W
09/24/2007 M46.00 MPH OLMSTED MN MESONET

CENTURY HIGH SCHOOL

0745 PM TSTM WND GST STEWARTVILLE 43.86N 92.49W
09/24/2007 E30.00 MPH OLMSTED MN AMATEUR RADIO

0745 PM TSTM WND GST STEWARTVILLE 43.86N 92.49W
09/24/2007 E35.00 MPH OLMSTED MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM TSTM WND GST STEWARTVILLE 43.86N 92.49W
09/24/2007 E40.00 MPH OLMSTED MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0825 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND MEADOW 43.71N 92.57W
09/24/2007 M47.00 MPH MOWER MN MESONET

SCHOOL NET SITE

0910 PM TSTM WND GST HIXTON 44.38N 91.01W
09/24/2007 E50.00 MPH JACKSON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0936 PM TSTM WND GST PRESTON 43.67N 92.08W
09/24/2007 M45.00 MPH FILLMORE MN MESONET

KIMT CHANNEL 3 SCHOOL NET

&&

$$

BOYNE

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 688

WWUS20 KWNS 250252
SEL8
SPC WW 250252
IAZ000-NEZ000-250800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 688 ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

IOWA
NEBRASKA

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 687

WWUS20 KWNS 250252
SEL7
SPC WW 250252
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-LSZ000-250500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
952 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 687 ISSUED AT 500 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

IOWA
MINNESOTA
WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

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KARX [250212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KARX 250212
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
912 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W DODGE CENTER 44.03N 92.93W
09/24/2007 DODGE MN PUBLIC

LARGE DUMPSTER MOVED 50 FT...TIN STRIPPED OFF BARN...2
OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED...LEAVES STRIPPED OFF TREES...LOST
SEVERAL LARGE TREES IN YARD

&&

$$

BROOKS

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KARX [250210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 250210
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
910 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0623 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W DODGE CENTER 44.03N 92.93W
09/24/2007 DODGE MN PUBLIC

LARGE DUMPSTER MOVED 50 FT, TIN STRIPPED OFF BARN, 2
OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED, LEAVES STRIPPED OFF TREES, LOST
SEVERAL LARGE TREES IN YARD

&&

$$

BROOKS

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KARX [250149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 250149
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
848 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 PM TSTM WND GST ROCHESTER 44.01N 92.48W
09/24/2007 M46 MPH OLMSTED MN MESONET

CENTURY HIGH SCHOOL

&&

$$

THOMPSON

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KARX [250142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 250142
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
841 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND MEADOW 43.71N 92.57W
09/24/2007 M47 MPH MOWER MN MESONET

SCHOOL NET SITE

&&

$$

THOMPSON

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KOAX [250127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 250127
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
827 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW MAPLETON 42.13N 95.85W
09/24/2007 E70.00 MPH MONONA IA PUBLIC

WINDS ESTIMATED AT UP TO 70 MPH ABOUT 4.5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MAPLETON.

&&

$$

MILLER

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KMAF [250127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMAF 250127
LSRMAF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
827 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND GST 12 SW FORT STOCKTON 30.77N 103.03W
09/24/2007 E0.00 MPH PECOS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

60 MPH WIND GUSTS WERE ESTIMATED BY STATE OFFICIALS AT
THE LYNBAUGH UNIT. NO DAMAGE WAS REPORTED.

&&

$$

MEFFERSO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250102
SWODY1
SPC AC 250059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

..CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON RUC ANALYSIS OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM NEAR
MINNEAPOLIS MN EXTENDING SWWD TO NEAR LINCOLN NEB. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE HAS INCREASED ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL LINEAR MCS/S SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TWO POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXIST ACCORDING TO
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE FIRST IS LOCATED ACROSS IA AND WRN WI WHERE
A NEARLY CONTINUOUS LINE IS ONGOING. THIS LINE MAY HAVE A FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS ACROSS WRN AND NRN WI
AND POSSIBLY FAR WRN UPPER MI...REF MCD 2015. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN IA WHERE STORMS ARE A
BIT MORE CELLULAR. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH TIME.

THE SECOND AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL KS
AND FAR SRN NEB WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ONGOING. A FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING. IT ALSO APPEARS A LINEAR MCS WILL
DEVELOP IN THIS REGION. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EWD EXTENSION OF
THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS WCNTRL KS INTO SE NEB AND THIS WILL
BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL THAN AREAS TO THE NORTHEAST.
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE MORE
PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY
TEMPORARILY INCREASE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-ORGANIZED
LINEAR MCS CAN FORM ACROSS THE REGION.

.BROYLES.. 09/25/2007

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KARX [250050]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 250050
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
750 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM TSTM WND GST STEWARTVILLE 43.86N 92.49W
09/24/2007 E40 MPH OLMSTED MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

THOMPSON

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 688...corrected

WWUS20 KWNS 250038 CCA
SEL8
SPC WW 250038 CCA
IAZ000-NEZ000-250500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 688...CORRECTED
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

CORRECTED FOR ENDING TIME

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 687...

DISCUSSION...SMALL AREA OF STRONG STORMS/POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF BIE...NEAR INTERSECTION OF SE-MOVING COLD
FRONT AND N/S CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS KS. AS SSWLY LLJ SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO FORM AND SPREAD
ENE ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE LNK/OMA AREA. GIVEN DEGREE OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

..CORFIDI

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 688

WWUS20 KWNS 250038
SEL8
SPC WW 250038
IAZ000-NEZ000-250800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 688
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
735 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 735 PM UNTIL
300 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 687...

DISCUSSION...SMALL AREA OF STRONG STORMS/POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST W OF BIE...NEAR INTERSECTION OF SE-MOVING COLD
FRONT AND N/S CONFLUENCE AXIS ACROSS KS. AS SSWLY LLJ SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO FORM AND SPREAD
ENE ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD THE LNK/OMA AREA. GIVEN DEGREE OF
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND FIELD...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.

..CORFIDI

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2015

ACUS11 KWNS 250038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250037
MIZ000-WIZ000-250200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687...

VALID 250037Z - 250200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 687
CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE COULD INCREASE THROUGH
03-06Z ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE
NEEDED. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD EAST OF UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING SQUALL LINE WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL PLUME OF MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH WILL SHIFT
EAST OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
EVENING. GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING...WEAK TO MODERATE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS PLUME...BASED NEAR THE
SURFACE...PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW BAND OF STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET NEAR
OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL INTENSIFY IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
THIS EVENING...FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AND...AS THIS OCCURS...THE CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD AID THE DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF
HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE SURFACE. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...BUT RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY
NEAR SURFACE RADIATIONAL INVERSION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 40-50 KT FLOW WITHIN THE
LOWEST KILOMETER ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.

.KERR.. 09/25/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...

44779058 45669032 46298986 46758913 46778773 46158719
44678817 43918993

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KGID [250038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 250038
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
738 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0708 PM TSTM WND GST ONG 40.40N 97.84W
09/24/2007 E60 MPH CLAY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR TREE DAMAGE REPORTED IN ONG.

&&

$$

NWS

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KARX [250026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 250026
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
726 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TSTM WND GST ORONOCO 44.16N 92.54W
09/24/2007 M45 MPH OLMSTED MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

THOMPSON

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KGID [250022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 250022
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
722 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0719 PM TSTM WND GST SHICKLEY 40.42N 97.72W
09/24/2007 E70 MPH FILLMORE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

NWS

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KARX [250022]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 250022
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
722 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0711 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E HAYFIELD 43.89N 92.81W
09/24/2007 M52 MPH DODGE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

THOMPSON

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KARX [250017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 250017
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
717 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W DODGE CENTER 44.03N 92.89W
09/24/2007 M42 MPH DODGE MN EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

THOMPSON

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KOAX [250017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 250017
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
717 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SE MAPLETON 42.14N 95.75W
09/24/2007 E60 MPH MONONA IA PUBLIC

WINDS ESTIMATED AT UP TO 60 MPH.

&&

$$

MILLER

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KGID [250012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 250012
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
712 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ESE CLAY CENTER 40.49N 97.95W
09/24/2007 E60 MPH CLAY NE CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

NWS

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KOAX [242357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 242357
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
657 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL 2 NE CASTANA 42.09N 95.88W
09/24/2007 E0.75 INCH MONONA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH AND WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

&&

$$

MILLER

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KMPX [242343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMPX 242343
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 PM TSTM WND DMG LITTLE FALLS 45.98N 94.36W
09/24/2007 MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO TREES DOWN IN/NEAR SPOTTER RESIDENCE. MORE TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN ON WEST SIDE OF TOWN.

0413 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N LESTER PRAIRIE 44.91N 94.04W
09/24/2007 M58.00 MPH MCLEOD MN MESONET

MEASURED BY MNDOT SENSOR.

0442 PM TSTM WND GST NORTH MANKATO 44.18N 94.03W
09/24/2007 M67.00 MPH NICOLLET MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG KASOTA 44.29N 93.97W
09/24/2007 LE SUEUR MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON POWER POLE.

0448 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W ST PETER 44.33N 94.00W
09/24/2007 NICOLLET MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN. SMALL HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

0448 PM TSTM WND DMG ST PETER 44.33N 93.96W
09/24/2007 NICOLLET MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHINGLES OFF A FEW ROOFS.

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW CARVER 44.73N 93.64W
09/24/2007 CARVER MN PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 45.

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.33W
09/24/2007 SCOTT MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE.

&&

$$

TDK

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KMPX [242339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 242339
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E PRIOR LAKE 44.73N 93.33W
09/24/2007 SCOTT MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE.

&&

$$

TDK

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KMPX [242334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 242334
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
634 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG KASOTA 44.29N 93.97W
09/24/2007 LE SUEUR MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN ON POWER POLE.

&&

$$

TDK

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KGID [242334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 242334
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM TORNADO 4 SE AYR 40.40N 98.39W
09/24/2007 ADAMS NE STORM CHASER

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [242329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 242329
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
629 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM HAIL 4 W AYR 40.44N 98.52W
09/24/2007 E1.25 INCH ADAMS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

NWS

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KGID [242327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 242327
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
626 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TORNADO BLUE HILL 40.33N 98.45W
09/24/2007 WEBSTER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

NWS

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KOAX [242324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 242324
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
624 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 WSW DECATUR 41.96N 96.39W
09/24/2007 BURT NE PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND WINDOWS IN A HOUSE WERE BLOWN IN
AT A LOCATION 6 MILES WEST AND 3 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR.
WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 80 MPH.

&&

$$

MILLER

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KMQT [242317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 242317
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
717 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND DMG WATERSMEET 46.27N 89.18W
09/21/2007 GOGEBIC MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

TG

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KPSR [242302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 242302
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
402 PM MST MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL SCOTTSDALE 33.69N 111.87W
09/22/2007 E1.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ PUBLIC

NORTH SCOTTSDALE. REPORTED BY MEDIA

&&

$$

MBRUCE

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KOAX [242301]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 242301
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
601 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 8 NE WEST POINT 41.92N 96.60W
09/24/2007 M1.00 INCH CUMING NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

MILLER

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KMPX [242229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 242229
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
528 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSW CARVER 44.73N 93.64W
09/24/2007 CARVER MN PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 45.

&&

$$

TDK

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KMPX [242213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 242213
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
513 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0448 PM TSTM WND DMG ST PETER 44.33N 93.96W
09/24/2007 NICOLLET MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHINGLES OFF A FEW ROOFS.

&&

$$

TDK

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 687

WWUS20 KWNS 242201
SEL7
SPC WW 242201
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-LSZ000-250500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 687
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN IOWA
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF KENNEDY WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MASON
CITY IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF TSTMS...WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NE AHEAD OF APPARENT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE LIFTING NE ACROSS SE SD/IA. SEASONABLY STRONG
SWLY BACKGROUND FLOW AND HEATING/LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WINDS/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL. FARTHER E...MORE ISOLATED CELLS IN ZONE OF WEAKER
CONVERGENCE ALONG PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS IN NW WI MAY POSE A
THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22035.

..CORFIDI

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KMPX [242154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 242154
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
454 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM TSTM WND GST NORTH MANKATO 44.18N 94.03W
09/24/2007 M67.00 MPH NICOLLET MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

0448 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W ST PETER 44.33N 94.00W
09/24/2007 NICOLLET MN LAW ENFORCEMENT

LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN. SMALL HAIL ALSO REPORTED.

&&

$$

TDK

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KMPX [242145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMPX 242145
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
444 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0237 PM TSTM WND DMG LITTLE FALLS 45.98N 94.36W
09/24/2007 MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO TREES DOWN IN/NEAR SPOTTER RESIDENCE. MORE TREES AND
POWER LINES DOWN ON WEST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

$$

TDK

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KLKN [242142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 242142
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
242 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM SNOW 11 ENE LEE 40.60N 115.37W
09/23/2007 M2.2 INCH ELKO NV NWS EMPLOYEE

ROADS END IN LAMOILLE CANYON...8760 FEET MSL

1200 AM SNOW 10 ESE MCGILL 39.32N 114.62W
09/24/2007 E1.8 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

BERRY CREEK SNOTEL...9100 FEET MSL

1200 AM SNOW 9 SSW ELY 39.13N 114.96W
09/24/2007 E1.6 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

WARD MOUNTAIN SNOTEL...9200 FEET MSL

1200 AM SNOW 6 NNW RUBY LAKE 40.28N 115.53W
09/24/2007 E2.5 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

CORRAL CANYON SNOTEL...8500 FEET MSL

&&

$$

RCM

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KMPX [242139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 242139
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
439 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM TSTM WND DMG LITTLE FALLS 45.98N 94.36W
09/24/2007 MORRISON MN TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO TREES DOWN.

0413 PM TSTM WND GST 2 N LESTER PRAIRIE 44.91N 94.04W
09/24/2007 M58.00 MPH MCLEOD MN MESONET

MEASURED BY MNDOT SENSOR.

&&

$$

TDK

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KDLH [242124]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 242124
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
424 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND GST PALISADE 46.71N 93.49W
09/24/2007 E60 MPH AITKIN MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

STEWART

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KFSD [242105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 242105
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
405 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL 8 E MELVIN 43.29N 95.45W
09/24/2007 E0.88 INCH OSCEOLA IA PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT RELAYED BY RADIO STATION. LOCATION IS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF MAY CITY.

&&

$$

WILLIAMS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2014

ACUS11 KWNS 242054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242054
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-242300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MN AND WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL IA INTO
EASTERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242054Z - 242300Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ROUGHLY
BISECTING MN...EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST IA/EASTERN
NEB. WHILE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT/FRONTAL
FORCING AND ERODING CINH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN IA AND EASTERN
NEB. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS WITH EAST EXTENT ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR...SPECIAL 18Z RAOBS FROM MINNEAPOLIS/OMAHA...IN
ACCORDANCE WILL LATEST REGIONAL PROFILER/WSR-88D VWP DATA...SUGGEST
AROUND 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXISTS ALONG/JUST EAST OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. LARGELY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/MODEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. POTENTIALLY SEVERE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.GUYER.. 09/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

44569441 45049371 44489222 43249213 41459446 40519624
41109730 41999680 43449546

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2013

ACUS11 KWNS 242052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242052
KSZ000-NEZ000-242145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 242052Z - 242145Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF GRI WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NWRN KS /S OF GLD/ INTO
E-CNTRL CO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE WAS ALSO ANALYZED
FROM THIS LOW SSWWD THROUGH N-CNTRL KS TO E OF DDC. GROWING CUMULUS
CONVECTION OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL
AIR MASS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...NAMELY FROM GRI SWWD INTO WRN KS.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG COLD FRONT AND PERHAPS NRN EXTENSION OF PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/CONFLUENCE ZONE BY 25/00Z...OWING LARGELY TO CONTINUED
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE IN BOUNDARY LAYER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
CURRENT VWPS/PROFILERS INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KT/ TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT
ROTATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY FACTORS LIMITING A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ARE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J
PER KG/. STILL SOME THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS ONCE
STORMS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP.

.MEAD.. 09/24/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...DDC...GLD...

38920189 39929992 40979829 40819770 40439761 39859781
39499833 39289869 38979962 38430091 38410115

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KJAX [242032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 242032
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
431 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM FLOOD JESUP 31.60N 81.89W
09/22/2007 WAYNE GA EMERGENCY MNGR

6 INCHES OF MEASURED RAIN REPORTED BETWEEN NOON AND 2PM,
FLOODING ON HIGHWAY 84 AND STATE ROAD 341 IN JESUP.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KLKN [241958]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KLKN 241958
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1258 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 44 SE KINGSTON 38.76N 116.50W
09/24/2007 M1.47 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS TS683

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 35 ENE TONOPAH 38.21N 116.63W
09/24/2007 M2.31 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...CEMP CMP22

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 59 ENE TONOPAH 38.30N 116.19W
09/24/2007 M1.64 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS PANN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 22 WSW PRESTON 38.76N 115.41W
09/24/2007 M1.08 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS CCRN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 59 E TONOPAH 38.20N 116.18W
09/24/2007 M1.72 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...CEMP CMP24

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 58 SW LUND 38.25N 115.73W
09/24/2007 M1.73 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...CEMP CMP15

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W BAKER 39.02N 114.22W
09/24/2007 M1.35 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...HADS BKRN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW GREAT BASIN NATIO 39.02N 114.27W
09/24/2007 M1.41 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS MTHN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 SSW ELY 39.13N 114.96W
09/24/2007 M1.30 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL WDMN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 ESE MCGILL 39.32N 114.62W
09/24/2007 M1.30 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL BRCN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW BAKER 39.00N 114.22W
09/24/2007 M1.38 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS BKFN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
09/24/2007 M1.60 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL BCSN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 NE EUREKA 39.56N 115.84W
09/24/2007 M1.00 INCH EUREKA NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL DPKN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW RUBY LAKE 40.28N 115.53W
09/24/2007 M1.20 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL COLN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 17 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.75N 117.53W
09/24/2007 M1.00 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL BKLN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 16 N KINGS RIVER VALLEY 41.97N 118.19W
09/24/2007 M1.20 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL DSPN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 W MOUNTAIN CITY 41.82N 116.10W
09/24/2007 M1.10 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL FWCN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 15 SW WILDHORSE 41.53N 116.01W
09/24/2007 M1.10 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL JAPN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE TONOPAH 38.09N 117.24W
09/24/2007 M1.17 INCH NYE NV MESONET

3 DAY TOTAL...CWOP AS702

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W BAKER 39.01N 114.22W
09/24/2007 M1.45 INCH WHITE PINE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

3 DAY TOTAL...COOP LENN2

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 37 SW LUND 38.52N 115.54W
09/24/2007 M1.38 INCH NYE NV CO-OP OBSERVER

3 DAY TOTAL...COOP BLEN2

&&

$$

RCM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241945
SWODY1
SPC AC 241943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD TO SRN MN/WRN WI...

..SRN MN/WRN WI TO PARTS OF NRN/WRN KS...
A MID/UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/LOW OVER
NRN UT. THESE FEATURES WILL PROGRESS EWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE/JET
STREAK...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MID MO VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE ASCENT
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION SWWD INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG AND E OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
EXTENDED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SWRN MN INTO CENTRAL NEB AND EAST
CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS...ALTHOUGH
COMPRISED OF CLOUDINESS AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES...SHOULD
REMAIN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN SOME SURFACE HEATING
WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR GREATER SEVERE WEATHER
COVERAGE...BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

FARTHER SW...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER INHIBITION
EXTENDING SWD FROM SRN NEB HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SURFACE
HEATING AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SLY
LLJ INTO KS BY 25/00Z SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. MARGINAL
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ AND INCREASING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WITH APPROACH OF NRN UT LOW SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS.

.PETERS.. 09/24/2007

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KLKN [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KLKN 241944
LSRLKN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
1244 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 44 SE KINGSTON 38.76N 116.50W
09/24/2007 M1.47 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS TS683

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 35 ENE TONOPAH 38.21N 116.63W
09/24/2007 M2.31 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...CEMP CMP22

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 59 ENE TONOPAH 38.30N 116.19W
09/24/2007 M1.64 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS PANN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 22 WSW PRESTON 38.76N 115.41W
09/24/2007 M1.08 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS CCRN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 59 E TONOPAH 38.20N 116.18W
09/24/2007 M1.72 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...CEMP CMP24

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 58 SW LUND 38.25N 115.73W
09/24/2007 M1.73 INCH NYE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...CEMP CMP15

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 W BAKER 39.02N 114.22W
09/24/2007 M1.35 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...HADS BKRN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW GREAT BASIN NATIO 39.02N 114.27W
09/24/2007 M1.41 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS MTHN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 9 SSW ELY 39.13N 114.96W
09/24/2007 M1.30 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL WDMN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 10 ESE MCGILL 39.32N 114.62W
09/24/2007 M1.30 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL BRCN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW BAKER 39.00N 114.22W
09/24/2007 M1.38 INCH WHITE PINE NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...RAWS BKFN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW GILLMAN SPRINGS 39.29N 117.11W
09/24/2007 M1.60 INCH LANDER NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL BCSN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 NE EUREKA 39.56N 115.84W
09/24/2007 M1.00 INCH EUREKA NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL DPKN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 NNW RUBY LAKE 40.28N 115.53W
09/24/2007 M1.20 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL COLN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 17 N PARADISE VALLEY 41.75N 117.53W
09/24/2007 M1.00 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL BKLN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 16 N KINGS RIVER VALLEY 41.97N 118.19W
09/24/2007 M1.20 INCH HUMBOLDT NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL DSPN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 W MOUNTAIN CITY 41.82N 116.10W
09/24/2007 M1.10 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL FWCN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 15 SW WILDHORSE 41.53N 116.01W
09/24/2007 M1.10 INCH ELKO NV OTHER FEDERAL

3 DAY TOTAL...SNOTEL JAPN2

1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSE TONOPAH 38.09N 117.24W
09/24/2007 M1.17 INCH NYE NV MESONET

3 DAY TOTAL...CWOP AS702

&&

$$

RCM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241729
SWODY2
SPC AC 241727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER UT/WRN
CO...ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE SRN EXTENT OF A SEPARATE TROUGH
TRACKING EWD THROUGH SRN CANADA BY THE START OF DAY 2 ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS. THESE PHASED TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON TUESDAY...FURTHER BREAKING DOWN THE ERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...EMBEDDED WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NWD INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD FROM AR INTO THE OH VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT WITH SRN CANADA/GREAT LAKES
TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM LM SWWD THROUGH IL/MO TO
ERN OK AND NRN-WRN TX LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

..LOWER MI INTO PART OF INDIANA/IL/NWRN OH...
SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
FROM THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND STRONGER MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING NEWD WITH AR
IMPULSE. SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z TUESDAY ALONG
THE EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE
RATES...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES RANGING
FROM 500-1500 J/KG. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
NEWD FROM MO INTO LOWER MI AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE
DESTABILIZING AIR MASS...AND ASCENT AHEAD OF AR IMPULSE SPREADS
ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS. STRONGEST EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-35
KT/ WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ACROSS LOWER MI SWWD INTO IL IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ATTENDANT TO SRN CANADA/GREAT
LAKES TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WEAK LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT
STRENGTH...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO COEXIST FROM
IL TO LOWER MI TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE HAIL THREAT WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..MO SWWD TO SRN PLAINS...
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG
THIS EXTENT OF THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN OK...NRN/WRN TX AND SERN
NM. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SWWD FROM MO.

.PETERS.. 09/24/2007

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KCRP [241702]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 241702
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1202 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM WATER SPOUT 6 SE FLOUR BLUFF 27.59N 97.23W
09/20/2007 NUECES TX BROADCAST MEDIA

PICTURES RELAYED FROM LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET CONFIRMED BRIEF
WATERSPOUT OVER PACKERY CHANNEL.

&&

$$

JR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241609
SWODY1
SPC AC 241606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN KS NEWD INTO SRN
MN/WRN WI......

..WRN KS TO SRN MN/WRN WI...

INITIALLY TROUGH/UPPER LOW NRN UT WITH STRONG WLY JET EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LIFTING UT
SYSTEM ENEWD WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MID/UPR WIND MAX SPREADS NEWD
ACROSS NEB INTO MN BY TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL DAKOTAS SSWWD INTO NERN CO BY THIS EVENING
WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MN TO SERN CORNER SD ACROSS WRN KS TO NERN
NM/CO BORDER.

WHILE A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HIGH PW/S ARE IN PLACE FROM ERN KS/NEB
INTO SRN MN CO-LOCATED ALONG 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY THE EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY.

MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM... AND AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM NEAR
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TO SUNSET.

GREATEST MLCAPES WITH EXPECTED BETTER HEATING...POTENTIALLY 1500
J/KG...WILL BE AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS WRN KS. FURTHER NE PRE-FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT MLCAPES TO GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN
NE INTO SRN MN.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS
CIN DISSIPATES AHEAD OF FRONT FROM WRN KS TO MN. 40-50 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN NEB TO SRN MN SUPPORTS PRIMARILY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS GREATEST.

WHILE SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE WEAKER WRN KS...THE STRONGER
HEATING SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE PRIOR TO
SUNSET.

.HALES/GUYER.. 09/24/2007

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KLOX [241606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 241606
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
904 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1243 PM FLASH FLOOD DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES 34.04N 118.30W
09/22/2007 LOS ANGELES CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

DEBRIS FLOW AND MUD SLIDE OCCURRED ON FOREST LAWN DRIVE
BELOW THE BARHAM FIRE AREA, JUST SOUTH OF THE VENTURA
FREEWAY, WHEN A CATCH BASIN OVERFLOWED. MUD COVERED A ONE
HUNDRED YARD STRETCH OF ROAD UP TO 2 FEET DEEP, TRAPPING
NEARLY A DOZEN PARKED CARS. NO INJURIES REPORTED.

&&

$$

BOLDT

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KHNX [241559]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KHNX 241559
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
859 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM FLASH FLOOD 8 E HANFORD 36.32N 119.50W
09/22/2007 KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

FLASH FLOODING OBSERVED ALONG FARGO AVE AND GRANGEVILLE
BLVD BETWEEN 7TH AVE EAST TO THE TULARE COUNTY LINE.
FLOODING WAS OBSERVED THROUGH 645 PM PDT.

0610 PM HAIL 6 NE HANFORD 36.39N 119.57W
09/22/2007 E0.50 INCH KINGS CA NWS EMPLOYEE

0624 PM HAIL 8 E HANFORD 36.32N 119.50W
09/22/2007 E0.88 INCH KINGS CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0854 PM HAIL 5 W SQUAW VALLEY 36.70N 119.28W
09/22/2007 E0.75 INCH FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

HAIL COATED ROADWAY

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD SQUAW VALLEY 36.70N 119.19W
09/22/2007 FRESNO CA STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER OBSERVED DEBRIS FROM FLASH
FLOODING...BRANCHES...LIMBS AND LEAVES ON GEORGE SMITH
AND SAND CREEK ROADS NEAR SQUAW VALLEY AFTER HEAVY RAINS

1000 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E ORANGE COVE 36.62N 119.28W
09/22/2007 TULARE CA STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER NOTED DEBRIS OF LEAVES...SMALL TREES AND
BRANCHES FROM FLASH FLOODING...JUST EAST OF ORANGE COVE
ON SAND CREEK RD.

&&
SUMMARY OF REPORTS FROM SUNDAY/S SEVERE WEATHER.
$$

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KFGF [241441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFGF 241441
LSRFGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
941 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW GILBY 48.10N 97.50W
09/23/2007 GRAND FORKS ND PUBLIC

ABOUT 12 TREES KNOCKED DOWN

1030 PM TSTM WND DMG LANCASTER 48.86N 96.80W
09/23/2007 KITTSON MN CO-OP OBSERVER

1 LARGE POPLAR TREE KNOCKED DOWN

&&

$$

DK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241234
SWODY1
SPC AC 241232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN
WI...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY AND DE-AMPLIFY.
MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES AND MIDWEST. POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD FORCING WILL PROMOTE A
RISK OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS FROM WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW OVER SD/NEB WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXTEND
FROM NORTHWEST KS INTO CENTRAL MN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE STRONGEST AHEAD OF SOUTHERN END OF FRONT OVER PARTS
OF KS/NEB...WITH INCREASINGLY MORE CLOUD COVER NORTHWARD INTO MN/WI.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG OVER KS
LESSENING TO 250-500 J/KG OVER WI. DESPITE WEAKER THERMODYNAMICS
FARTHER NORTH...STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND A WEAKER CAP SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA.
SUPERCELLS AND BOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF
WI/UPPER MI.

.HART/GRAMS.. 09/24/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240853
SWOD48
SPC AC 240853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

..DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DAY 6 /SAT. SEPT. 29/. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE
PLAINS...ACCOMPANIED BY A N-S COLD FRONT.

A PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE GULF AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING SLOWLY EWD SUGGEST THAT QUALITY GULF MOISTURE RETURN
NWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WLY FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES TO SPREAD EWD ATOP THE WARM
SECTOR LIKELY RESULTING IN AMPLE CAPE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INVOF COLD FRONT. WITH MODELS DEPICTING MID-LEVEL FLOW MAGNITUDE
BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KT...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS.
THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE A RISK AREA FOR DAY 6 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

.GOSS.. 09/24/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240736
SWODY3
SPC AC 240734

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSES QUEBEC AND ONTARIO AND BRUSHES THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON ITS WAY TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...LARGER-SCALE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN
CONUS WHILE SLOWLY AMPLIFYING. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THE NORTHEAST...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN QUEBEC/ONTARIO/THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH STORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME. WHILE
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT HEATING...MARGINAL INSTABILITY
/AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH 35 TO 45 KT FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID TROPOSPHERE FROM NY
NEWD...IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS CROSSING THIS REGION WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS -- PRIMARILY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..PARTS OF NM AND FAR W TX NEWD ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS...
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO TURN SLY ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE
DAY...S OF A WEAK LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP INVOF THE TX/OH
PANHANDLES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS SRN FRINGE OF CENTRAL U.S.
TROUGHING/HEIGHT FALLS BRUSHES THIS REGION. DESPITE MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD RESULT IN MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM -- AND PERHAPS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA
IN CONJUNCTION WITH NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT.

LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW BENEATH 25 TO 35 KT WNWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS
SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THUS --
GIVEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FORECAST ATTM...LOW-PROBABILITY
THREAT FOR HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE INTRODUCED THIS
FORECAST.

.GOSS.. 09/24/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240559
SWODY1
SPC AC 240557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST...

..CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BROADEN
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL
PLAINS. A SUBTLE CAPPING INVERSION ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY TODAY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LIFT ALONG THE WRN EDGE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW SEVERAL LINEAR MCS/S TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.

AN ELONGATED BAND OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE GREATER AND MORE DIRECTIONAL TURNING
IN THE WIND FIELDS IS FORECAST. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN SRN NEB
AND NW KS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY DELAYED INITIATION ALLOWING FOR
MORE DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...A FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A MORE
PERSISTENT SEVERE THREAT IN THE EARLY EVENING.

FURTHER NORTHEAST FROM NW IA TO CNTRL MN...THE CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDDAY AND FORCING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN
THOUGH DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE CUT SHORT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WITH THE FASTER MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
MODELS ALSO FORECAST A SECONDARY AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN IA
EXTENDING SWD INTO NW IL. ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL BE NOT BE AS
STRONG...VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THERE AS WELL.

.BROYLES/GRAMS.. 09/24/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240559
SWODY2
SPC AC 240558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CONUS...AND SHOULD CROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT --
INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD ACROSS THE
MID MO VALLEY/ERN KS/OK AND INTO ERN NM -- WILL ALSO PROGRESS
STEADILY EWD/SEWD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM ERN LOWER MI/NWRN OH SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
CENTRAL TX.

..LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF IL/INDIANA/NWRN OH...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD FROM WI SWWD INTO THE PLAINS...INVOF COLD FRONT PROGRESSING
EWD/SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON...AS MOIST WARM
SECTOR AND DIURNAL HEATING RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 500 TO 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE.

WHILE WEAK FLOW ALOFT ATOP THE WARM SECTOR FROM ROUGHLY OK SWWD
SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT...THREAT IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE NEWD ACROSS MO -- AND PARTICULARLY INTO PARTS OF IL/IN AND
INTO LOWER MI -- WHERE 40 TO 50 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS SPREAD ACROSS
THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS...STORM MODE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LINEAR -- WITH A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPARENT GIVEN MODERATELY-STRONG/ROUGHLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FORECAST THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE.

WHILE A DIURNAL DECREASE IN THREAT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 09/24/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 686

WWUS20 KWNS 240407
SEL6
SPC WW 240407
MNZ000-NDZ000-240700-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 686 ISSUED AT 750 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

MINNESOTA
NORTH DAKOTA

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 685

WWUS20 KWNS 240403
SEL5
SPC WW 240403
NDZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 685
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 685 ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH DAKOTA
NEBRASKA
SOUTH DAKOTA

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