SWODY1
SPC AC 241606
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1106 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2007
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WESTERN KS NEWD INTO SRN
MN/WRN WI......
..WRN KS TO SRN MN/WRN WI...
INITIALLY TROUGH/UPPER LOW NRN UT WITH STRONG WLY JET EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT LIFTING UT
SYSTEM ENEWD WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MID/UPR WIND MAX SPREADS NEWD
ACROSS NEB INTO MN BY TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL DAKOTAS SSWWD INTO NERN CO BY THIS EVENING
WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MN TO SERN CORNER SD ACROSS WRN KS TO NERN
NM/CO BORDER.
WHILE A PRONOUNCED AXIS OF HIGH PW/S ARE IN PLACE FROM ERN KS/NEB
INTO SRN MN CO-LOCATED ALONG 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE MODULATED BY THE EXPECTED LIMITED INSTABILITY.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6.5 C/KM... AND AMOUNT
OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT THE WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM NEAR
PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING TO SUNSET.
GREATEST MLCAPES WITH EXPECTED BETTER HEATING...POTENTIALLY 1500
J/KG...WILL BE AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS WRN KS. FURTHER NE PRE-FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT MLCAPES TO GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN
NE INTO SRN MN.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID AFTERNOON AS
CIN DISSIPATES AHEAD OF FRONT FROM WRN KS TO MN. 40-50 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ACROSS ERN NEB TO SRN MN SUPPORTS PRIMARILY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT...PARTICULARLY WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS GREATEST.
WHILE SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE WEAKER WRN KS...THE STRONGER
HEATING SUGGESTS A FEW STORMS WILL BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE PRIOR TO
SUNSET.
.HALES/GUYER.. 09/24/2007
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