KLSX [030211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary...corrected

NWUS53 KLSX 030211 CCA
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE BARRY 39.67N 91.03W
10/02/2007 M1.34 INCH PIKE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

1.34 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES.

0455 PM TORNADO 6 SE SHELBINA 39.63N 91.96W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

*** 1 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO. MOBILE HOME DESTROYED.
MAN FOUND INJURED...CONFIRMED BY SHELBINA FIRE
DEPARTMENT. EVENT OCCURRED IN MONROE COUNTY SOUTH OF
LAKENAN.

0500 PM TORNADO SHELBINA 39.69N 92.04W
10/02/2007 SHELBY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPT REPORTED TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE JUST
SOUTH OF SHELBINA. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0500 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E MONROE CITY 39.65N 91.64W
10/02/2007 RALLS MO AMATEUR RADIO

ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD.

0505 PM TORNADO MONROE CITY 39.65N 91.73W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

CONFIRMED TORNADO AND DAMAGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
MONROE CITY. TIME APPROZIMATELY 505 - 510 PM.

0523 PM TORNADO 7 W HANNIBAL 39.71N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO AMATEUR RADIO

TORNADO ON THE GROUND 7 WEST OF HANNIBAL.

0530 PM TORNADO PALMYRA 39.80N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO. CARS REPORTED OVERTURNED...TREES
DAMAGED...HOME DAMAGED.

0530 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 W HANNIBAL 39.71N 91.42W
10/02/2007 MARION MO AMATEUR RADIO

ROTATING WALL CLOUD.

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG PALMYRA 39.80N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN. VERY HEARY RAIN.

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG LIBERTY 39.88N 91.11W
10/02/2007 ADAMS IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A COUPLE OF LARGE TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0620 PM TORNADO 3 NNW MONTGOMERY CITY 39.02N 91.53W
10/02/2007 MONTGOMERY MO EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO. 462 WHITE ROAD BETWEEN MONTGOMERY CITY
AND WELLSVILLE...HOG BUILDING DESTROYED...150 FOOT WIDE
PATH OF CORN FLATTENED. TIME APPROXIMATE.

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG NUTWOOD 39.08N 90.56W
10/02/2007 JERSEY IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE REPORTED DOWN...VIA MACOUPIN COUNTY EMA.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [030209]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLSX 030209
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
909 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 4 NE GRANVILLE 39.60N 92.04W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO AMATEUR RADIO

*** 1 INJ *** UPDATED REPORT...NO APPARENT
INJURIES...NEAR HWY 15 AND RT CC...BARN DESTROYED..LARGE
TREES DOWN...TIME APPROZIMATE.

0450 PM TORNADO 4 NE GRANVILLE 39.60N 92.04W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO AMATEUR RADIO

UPDATE FOR PREVIOUS REPORT FROM GRANVILLE...NO INJURY.

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE BARRY 39.67N 91.03W
10/02/2007 M1.34 INCH PIKE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

1.34 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES.

0455 PM TORNADO 6 SE SHELBINA 39.63N 91.96W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

*** 1 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO. MOBILE HOME DESTROYED.
MAN FOUND INJURED...CONFIRMED BY SHELBINA FIRE
DEPARTMENT. EVENT OCCURRED IN MONROE COUNTY SOUTH OF
LAKENAN.

0500 PM TORNADO SHELBINA 39.69N 92.04W
10/02/2007 SHELBY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPT REPORTED TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE JUST
SOUTH OF SHELBINA. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0500 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E MONROE CITY 39.65N 91.64W
10/02/2007 RALLS MO AMATEUR RADIO

ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD.

0505 PM TORNADO MONROE CITY 39.65N 91.73W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

CONFIRMED TORNADO AND DAMAGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
MONROE CITY. TIME APPROZIMATELY 505 - 510 PM.

0523 PM TORNADO 7 W HANNIBAL 39.71N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO AMATEUR RADIO

TORNADO ON THE GROUND 7 WEST OF HANNIBAL.

0530 PM TORNADO PALMYRA 39.80N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO. CARS REPORTED OVERTURNED...TREES
DAMAGED...HOME DAMAGED.

0530 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 W HANNIBAL 39.71N 91.42W
10/02/2007 MARION MO AMATEUR RADIO

ROTATING WALL CLOUD.

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG PALMYRA 39.80N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN. VERY HEARY RAIN.

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG LIBERTY 39.88N 91.11W
10/02/2007 ADAMS IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A COUPLE OF LARGE TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

0620 PM TORNADO 3 NNW MONTGOMERY CITY 39.02N 91.53W
10/02/2007 MONTGOMERY MO EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO. 462 WHITE ROAD BETWEEN MONTGOMERY CITY
AND WELLSVILLE...HOG BUILDING DESTROYED...150 FOOT WIDE
PATH OF CORN FLATTENED. TIME APPROXIMATE.

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG NUTWOOD 39.08N 90.56W
10/02/2007 JERSEY IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE REPORTED DOWN...VIA MACOUPIN COUNTY EMA.

&&

$$

JPK

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KOUN [030203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 030203
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W MEDICINE PARK 34.73N 98.55W
10/02/2007 M75 MPH COMANCHE OK MESONET

&&

$$

JPIKE

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KJAX [030148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 030148
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
947 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0943 PM HEAVY RAIN NORMANDY 30.31N 81.76W
10/02/2007 M5.94 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED 5.94 INCHES NEAR NORMANDY
BOULEVARD AND INTERSTATE 295.

&&

$$

ECZ

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KSGF [030143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 030143
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
843 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM FLASH FLOOD STOCKTON 37.70N 93.80W
10/02/2007 CEDAR MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

MINOR FLOODING OF LOW WATER BRIDGE

&&

$$

JSS

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KDVN [030138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 030138
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
838 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG DELTA 41.32N 92.33W
10/02/2007 KEOKUK IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES UPROOTED. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED. DELAYED
REPORT.

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S SOUTH ENGLISH 41.39N 92.09W
10/02/2007 KEOKUK IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROOF OFF BARN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED. DELAYED
REPORT.

&&

$$

JH2

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KLSX [030134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 030134
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
834 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG NUTWOOD 39.08N 90.56W
10/02/2007 JERSEY IL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE REPORTED DOWN...VIA MACOUPIN COUNTY EMA.

&&

$$

JPK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2054

ACUS11 KWNS 030128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030127
ILZ000-MOZ000-030300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 701...

VALID 030127Z - 030300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 701 CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 03Z FROM E
CNTRL MO THROUGH W CNTRL AND CNTRL IL. MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN
CONTAINED WITHIN WW 701 THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...STORMS MOVING THROUGH
NERN CORNER OF WATCH MAY BEGIN TO EXIT WW BY 02Z. A LOCAL EXTENTION
MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED INTO PARTS OF CNTRL IL.

PRE-FRONTAL STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CONTINUE FROM E CNTRL
MO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS NEWD INTO W CNTRL IL. STORMS ARE MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 KT...AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH MENARD
COUNTY WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE WATCH BY 02Z. STORMS ARE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST THETA-E WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF CONSIDERABLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO IL
WHERE RECOVERY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY PERSIST A ROW OR TWO OF COUNTIES EAST OF
CURRENT WW WHERE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 400 M2/S2 AND
STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LOW
LEVEL MESOCYCLONES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE
EAST OF MOIST AXIS AND AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO VEER IN WAKE
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

.DIAL.. 10/03/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

40418944 39408939 38469047 38389202 38779224 39609184
40159101

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KSGF [030109]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 030109 CCA
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
804 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM WALL CLOUD 2 N JASPER 37.36N 94.30W
10/02/2007 BARTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN FREE BASE AND WALL CLOUD WITH SLIGHT ROTATION

&&

$$

JSS

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KSGF [030104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 030104
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
804 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM WALL CLOUD 2 N JASPER 37.36N 94.30W
10/02/2007 BARTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN FREE BASE AND WALL CLOUD WITH SLIGHT ROTATION

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00001

$$

JSS

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KLSX [030103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 030103
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
803 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 PM TORNADO 3 NNW MONTGOMERY CITY 39.02N 91.53W
10/02/2007 MONTGOMERY MO EMERGENCY MNGR

POSSIBLE TORNADO. 462 WHITE ROAD BETWEEN MONTGOMERY CITY
AND WELLSVILLE...HOG BUILDING DESTROYED...150 FOOT WIDE
PATH OF CORN FLATTENED. TIME APPROXIMATE.

&&

$$

JPK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030053
SWODY1
SPC AC 030052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM
SWRN OK NEWD INTO ECNTRL/IA AND NWRN IL...

..SRN PLAINS TO THE UPR MS VLY...
00Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WRN WI SWD ACROSS
ERN IA AND CNTRL MO SWWD TO CNTRL OK. A COLD FRONT LAGS THIS
FEATURE BY 50-75 MILES AND WILL EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE IT WITH TIME
THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACE A NARROW
INSTABILITY AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES RANGING
FROM AROUND 800 J/KG OVER THE UPR MS VLY TO 1700 J/KG ACROSS CNTRL
OK.

STRONGEST DCVA ASSOCD WITH THE UPR TROUGH WAS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
INTO THE UPR MS VLY AND WAS SUPPORTING STRONGLY FORCED TSTM LINE
SEGMENTS. 00Z DVN SOUNDING EXHIBITS VERY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOWEST
1 KM WITH SRH IN EXCESS OF 340 M2/S2. DESPITE MEAGER INSTABILITY...
A COUPLE OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH SOME
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR
DMGG WIND GUST ACROSS EXTREME ERN IA AND NWRN IL UNTIL STORMS OUTRUN
THE INSTABILITY AXIS 02-03Z.

FARTHER S...MORE ROBUST TSTMS EXIST FROM ECNTRL MO SWWD INTO SWRN OK
WITHIN STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE STRONGEST FLOW...ALONG THE BASE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...EXISTS ACROSS THE MID-MS VLY WITH
ROUGHLY 45 KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THOUGH STORMS HAVE LIKELY
PEAKED...THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS WITH DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES
ACROSS ECNTRL-SWRN/SCNTRL MO.

TAIL-END OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCD SCT TSTMS RESIDE IN COMPARATIVELY
WEAKER SHEAR AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT ACROSS CNTRL-SWRN OK AND
NWRN TX. AS A RESULT...ONLY ISOLD STG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
BACKBUILD SWWD INTO PARTS OF NWRN TX OVERNIGHT...BUT THE SVR THREATS
WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST.

.RACY.. 10/03/2007

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KLSX [030034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 030034
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
734 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM TORNADO 6 SE SHELBINA 39.63N 91.96W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

*** 1 INJ *** POSSIBLE TORNADO. MOBILE HOME DESTROYED.
MAN FOUND INJURED...CONFIRMED BY SHELBINA FIRE
DEPARTMENT. EVENT OCCURRED IN MONROE COUNTY SOUTH OF
LAKENAN.

&&

$$

JPK

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KDMX [030025]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDMX 030025
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
724 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM DOWNBURST 1 S NEW MARKET 40.72N 94.90W
10/02/2007 TAYLOR IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE UPROOTED IN YARD LOCATED NEAR COUNTY ROAD N26 AND
HIGHWAY 2.

0440 PM TORNADO DES MOINES 41.58N 93.62W
10/02/2007 POLK IA UTILITY COMPANY

POSSIBLE TORNADO. POWERLINES DOWN AND POWER POLES SNAPPED
AT 13TH STREET AND MULBERRY. PUBLIC REPORT OF A FLIPPED
CAR AT SW 6TH STREET AND MULBERRY.

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG DES MOINES INT AIRPORT 41.53N 93.66W
10/02/2007 POLK IA EMERGENCY MNGR

AT THE DES MOINES AIRPORT...A PARKING AREA HAD A TOLL
BOOTH AND 6 DIFFERENT CARS WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

0535 PM TORNADO SEYMOUR 40.68N 93.12W
10/02/2007 WAYNE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

WAYNE COUNTY EM REPORTED A ROOF BLOWN OFF A
BUILDING...WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF HOMES AND POWER LINES
DOWN IN THE TOWN OF SEYMOUR.

&&

$$

FBOKSA

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KDMX [030024]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 030024
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
724 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM DOWNBURST 1 S NEW MARKET 40.72N 94.90W
10/02/2007 TAYLOR IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE UPROOTED IN YARD LOCATED NEAR COUNTY ROAD N26 AND
HIGHWAY 2.

&&

$$

FBOKSA

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KSGF [030017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 030017
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
717 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 5 E SHELDON 37.66N 94.20W
10/02/2007 E0.75 INCH VERNON MO AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

HATCH

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KJAX [030011]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 030011
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
811 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0811 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 W JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.44W
10/02/2007 E0.00 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM SPOTTER REPORT OF 4.48 INCHES OF RAIN ON HODGES
ROAD SINCE NOON.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KDVN [030010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 030010
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
710 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E DELTA 41.32N 92.31W
10/02/2007 KEOKUK IA EMERGENCY MNGR

ROOF OFF HOUSE CONFIRMED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER. POSSIBLE
TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

JH2

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KDMX [030009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDMX 030009
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
709 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TORNADO DES MOINES 41.58N 93.62W
10/02/2007 POLK IA UTILITY COMPANY

POSSIBLE TORNADO. POWERLINES DOWN AND POWER POLES SNAPPED
AT 13TH STREET AND MULBERRY. PUBLIC REPORT OF A FLIPPED
CAR AT SW 6TH STREET AND MULBERRY.

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG DES MOINES INT AIRPORT 41.53N 93.66W
10/02/2007 POLK IA EMERGENCY MNGR

AT THE DES MOINES AIRPORT...A PARKING AREA HAD A TOLL
BOOTH AND 6 DIFFERENT CARS WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

0535 PM TORNADO SEYMOUR 40.68N 93.12W
10/02/2007 WAYNE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

WAYNE COUNTY EM REPORTED A ROOF BLOWN OFF A
BUILDING...WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF HOMES AND POWER LINES
DOWN IN THE TOWN OF SEYMOUR.

&&

$$

FBOKSA

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KSGF [030006]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 030006
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM HAIL 5 E SHELDON 37.66N 94.20W
10/02/2007 E0.75 INCH VERNON MO AIRPLANE PILOT

&&

$$

HATCH

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KDVN [030000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 030000
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E DELTA 41.32N 92.25W
10/02/2007 KEOKUK IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE DEPARTMENT CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO A MACHINE SHED.
POSSIBLE TORNADO.

0655 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 SE SOUTH ENGLISH 41.41N 92.04W
10/02/2007 KEOKUK IA TRAINED SPOTTER

FUNNEL CLOUD CONFIRMED AND BEING FOLLOWED BY A TRAINED
SPOTTER.

&&

$$

JH2

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2053

ACUS11 KWNS 022354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022353
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN OK INTO SWRN AND W CNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700...

VALID 022353Z - 030130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 700
CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS FROM CNTRL AND NERN OK THROUGH
SWRN AND W CNTRL MO. STORMS ARE APPROACHING SERN PORTION OF THE WW
ACROSS SWRN MON. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...AND ANOTHER WW
DOWNSTREAM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SEWD MOVING COLD
FRONT IN REMAINING PARTS OF WW 700 FROM CNTRL OK NEWD THROUGH CNTRL
MO. PRIMARILY MULTICELL MODES EXIST IN OK PORTION OF WW WITH SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES STILL BEING OBSERVED IN MO PORTION WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER. A RATHER MODEST THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AND WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS ALONG WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW TO VEER AND WEAKEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL WINDS
ATTENDING UPPER MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFT NEWD INTO TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND.

.DIAL.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36199471 35209745 35349808 36439638 39119365 39439247
38379268 37919178

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KLSX [022352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022352
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
652 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE BARRY 39.67N 91.03W
10/02/2007 M1.34 INCH PIKE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

1.34 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20 MINUTES.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022350
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
650 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 4 NE GRANVILLE 39.60N 92.04W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO AMATEUR RADIO

UPDATE FOR PREVIOUS REPORT FROM GRANVILLE...NO INJURY.

&&

$$

JPK

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KFSD [022349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 022349
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ELK POINT 42.68N 96.68W
10/02/2007 UNION SD BROADCAST MEDIA

18 WHEEL SEMI TRUCK TURNED OVER DUE TO HIGH WIND GUSTS ON
I 29 AROUND ELK POINT SD. TIME APPROXIMATE.

&&

$$

MJF

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KSEW [022340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSEW 022340
LSRSEW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
439 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0439 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 WNW FREDERICKSON 47.10N 122.43W
10/02/2007 M0.55 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR FROM 330-430 PM.

&&

$$

GRUB

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KLSX [022337]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022337
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
637 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG LIBERTY 39.88N 91.11W
10/02/2007 ADAMS IL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A COUPLE OF LARGE TREES DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

$$

JPK

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KDMX [022334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 022334
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TORNADO SEYMOUR 40.68N 93.12W
10/02/2007 WAYNE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

WAYNE COUNTY EM REPORTED A ROOF BLOWN OFF A
BUILDING...WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF HOMES AND POWER LINES
DOWN IN THE TOWN OF SEYMOUR.

&&

$$

FBOKSA

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KJAX [022321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022321
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
721 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLOOD 5 W ST. AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.39W
10/02/2007 ST. JOHNS FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FLOODING REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 208 NEAR WHISPER RIDGE
SUBDIVISION.

&&

$$

MZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2052

ACUS11 KWNS 022317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022316
ILZ000-IAZ000-030015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022316Z - 030015Z

CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ERN IA
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

A STRONG SLY 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH A 70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET
ATTENDING AN EWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN LARGE
0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
WITH LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES ACROSS ERN IA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH ERN
IA NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WITHIN THE
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ARE RESULTING IN A CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED...AND IF STORMS DO NOT SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE
EWD INTO A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

.DIAL.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...

40969080 40879218 42419193 42229032

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KJAX [022313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022313
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
713 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 PM HEAVY RAIN 10 S JACKSONVILLE INTL 30.34N 81.71W
10/02/2007 M0.00 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES OF RAINFALL REPORTED IN ONE HOUR ON TIMMAQUANA
ROAD AND SEABOARD ROAD.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KDMX [022313]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 022313
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
613 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0447 PM TSTM WND DMG DES MOINES INT AIRPORT 41.53N 93.66W
10/02/2007 POLK IA EMERGENCY MNGR

AT THE DES MOINES AIRPORT...A PARKING AREA HAD A TOLL
BOOTH AND 6 DIFFERENT CARS WITH WINDOWS BLOWN OUT.

&&

$$

PODRAZIK

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KJAX [022308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022308
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
708 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0701 PM FLOOD ORANGE PARK 30.17N 81.70W
10/02/2007 CLAY FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ON PARTS OF FLEMING ISLAND, 8
INCHES OF WATER IS COVERING THE ROADWAYS. BLANDING
BOULEVARD AND CONSTITUTION AVENUE ARE ALSO FLOODED IN THE
LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE ORANGE PARK MALL.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KJAX [022307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022307
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
707 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLOOD ORTEGA 30.27N 81.71W
10/02/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WOMAN STUCK IN CAR DUE TO FLOODING ON ALGONQUIN AVE.

0700 PM FLOOD 8 S DOWNTOWN JACKSONVIL 30.22N 81.66W
10/02/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FLOODING REPORTED ON TOREE GRANDE AVE. AND CASA GRANDE
AVE. IN BEAUCLERC AREA.

&&

$$

MZ

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KJAX [022257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022257
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM FLOOD 3 NW PALM VALLEY 30.23N 81.43W
10/02/2007 ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

A RESIDENT IN THE JULINGTON CREEK PLANTATION HAS REPORTED
2 1/2 FEET OF STANDING WATER FLOODING ROBERTS ROAD.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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KDMX [022256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 022256
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
556 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM TORNADO DES MOINES 41.58N 93.62W
10/02/2007 POLK IA UTILITY COMPANY

POSSIBLE TORNADO. POWERLINES DOWN AND POWER POLES SNAPPED
AT 13TH STREET AND MULBERRY. PUBLIC REPORT OF A FLIPPED
CAR AT SW 6TH STREET AND MULBERRY.

&&

$$

FBOKSA

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 701

WWUS20 KWNS 022246
SEL1
SPC WW 022246
ILZ000-MOZ000-030300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
QUINCY ILLINOIS TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JEFFERSON CITY
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 700...

DISCUSSION...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE FORMED WITHIN THE LARGER BAND
OF CONVECTION ACROSS E/NE MO THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING TO THE E OF THE ONGOING STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR A FEW
TORNADOES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS NE MO INTO W CENTRAL IL.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

..THOMPSON

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KLSX [022246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022246
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
545 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TORNADO PALMYRA 39.80N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

POSSIBLE TORNADO. CARS REPORTED OVERTURNED...TREES
DAMAGED...HOME DAMAGED.

0530 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 W HANNIBAL 39.71N 91.42W
10/02/2007 MARION MO AMATEUR RADIO

ROTATING WALL CLOUD.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022241
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
541 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0536 PM TSTM WND DMG PALMYRA 39.80N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO TRAINED SPOTTER

SMALL TREE LIMBS DOWN. VERY HEARY RAIN.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLSX 022235
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TORNADO 4 NE GRANVILLE 39.60N 92.04W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO AMATEUR RADIO

*** 1 INJ *** NEAR HWY 15 AND RT CC...BARN
DESTROYED..LARGE TREES DOWN...1 REPORTED INJURY. TIME
APPROZIMATE.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLSX 022233
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
533 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E MONROE CITY 39.65N 91.64W
10/02/2007 RALLS MO AMATEUR RADIO

ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD.

0505 PM TORNADO MONROE CITY 39.65N 91.73W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

CONFIRMED TORNADO AND DAMAGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
MONROE CITY. TIME APPROZIMATELY 505 - 510 PM.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022232
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
532 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM TORNADO 4 NE GRANVILLE 39.60N 92.04W
10/02/2007 MONROE MO AMATEUR RADIO

*** 1 INJ *** NEAR HWY 15 AND RT CC...BARN
DESTROYED..LARGE TREES DOWN...1 REPORTED INJURY.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022224
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
524 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0523 PM TORNADO 7 W HANNIBAL 39.71N 91.52W
10/02/2007 MARION MO AMATEUR RADIO

TORNADO ON THE GROUND 7 WEST OF HANNIBAL.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022223]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022223
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
523 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TORNADO MONROE CITY 38.25N 90.27W
10/02/2007 MONROE IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

CONFIRMED TORNADO AND DAMAGE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
MONROE CITY. TIME APPROZIMATELY 505 - 510 PM.

&&

$$

JPK

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KCHS [022220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 022220
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
620 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES ISLE OF PALMS 32.78N 79.78W
10/02/2007 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERE EROSION CONTINUES ON ISLE OF PALMS. HIGH SURF AND
COASTAL FLOODING HAS ERODED THE DUNE LINE IN MANY
LOCATIONS. SEVERAL BOARDWALKS ARE DAMAGED. LOTS OF DEBRIS
IN THE WATER.

0600 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES WILD DUNES 32.80N 79.73W
10/02/2007 CHARLESTON SC LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERE EROSION AT WILD DUNES CONTINUES. THE 18TH HOLE OF
ONE OF THE GOLF COURSES IS GONE. DAMAGE TO SEVERAL CONDOS
AND HOUSES CONTINUES DUE TO HIGH SURF AND COASTAL
FLOODING. SAND BAGGING EFFORTS ARE IN PROGRESS.

&&

$$

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KLSX [022217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022217
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
517 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 E MONROE CITY 38.25N 90.18W
10/02/2007 MONROE IL AMATEUR RADIO

ROTATING WALL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD.

&&

$$

JPK

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KLSX [022216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 022216
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
515 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TORNADO SHELBINA 39.69N 92.04W
10/02/2007 SHELBY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPT REPORTED TREE AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE JUST
SOUTH OF SHELBINA. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

$$

JPK

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KCHS [022206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 022206
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
606 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
10/02/2007 CHATHAM GA TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED AND THEIR FOUNDATIONS COMPLETELY
UNDERMINED BY COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF ON THE NORTH
BEACH AREA OF TYBEE ISLAND.

0600 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES HUNTING ISLAND 32.38N 80.44W
10/02/2007 BEAUFORT SC BROADCAST MEDIA

EXTREME EROSION IN PROGRESS ON HUNTING ISLAND. SEVERAL
CABINS HAVE BEEN DAMAGED BY COASTAL FLOODING/HIGH SURF.

&&

$$

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KDVN [022205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 022205
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
505 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TORNADO 1 W MEMPHIS 40.46N 92.19W
10/02/2007 SCOTLAND MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CONFIRMED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT. BUILDINGS
DAMAGED, POWER LINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

JH2

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KJAX [022204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 022204
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
604 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0601 PM FLOOD W PALM VALLEY 30.20N 81.39W
10/02/2007 ST. JOHNS FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A STROM SPOTTER HAS REPORTED ANKLE DEEP WATER IN HER CUL
DE SAC IN THE CIMMARON SUBDIVISION OFF COUNTY ROAD 210 IN
NORTHERN SAINT JOHNS COUNTY.

&&

$$

PKEEGAN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2051

ACUS11 KWNS 022032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022031
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-022130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO...S-CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022031Z - 022130Z

AS DISCRETE LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND ALONG A SHARP
COLD FRONT...THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADOES
WILL INCREASE GIVEN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH BEYOND 00Z...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL SHOWERS/TSTMS FORMING ALONG
A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM AROUND 20 E DNS TO TOP
AS OF 20Z. A NARROW AXIS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SHIFTED
EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AROUND 80 FROM STJ TO ICL.
LOW-LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN QUITE STRONG WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF
1 KM AGL SWLYS /PER LATEST PROFILERS/ LEADING TO 0-1 KM SRH IN
EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SMALL N/S CORRIDOR OF
INCREASED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL. EXPECTED
DURATION OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED GIVEN ABUNDANT
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN IA/NERN MO AND LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

.GRAMS.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

41659486 42009448 41929362 41339318 40649330 40079349
39459382 39289472 39529511 40429505 40759502

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KCHS [022020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 022020
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
420 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES HUNTING ISLAND 32.38N 80.44W
10/01/2007 BEAUFORT SC PARK/FOREST SRVC

SEVERAL CABINS AT HUNTING ISLAND STATE PARK HAVE BEEN
UNDERMINED BY HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING. CABINS HAVE
BEEN EVACUATED.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 021959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE LOWER MO AND MID MS VALLEYS SWWD INTO OK...

..SYNOPSIS...

EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WITH ATTENDANT 50-60 KT
MID-LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER N-CNTRL MN WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD THROUGH FAR ERN NEB AND THEN MORE
SWWD THROUGH S-CNTRL KS INTO THE TX PNHDL.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIFT MORE NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND TX BY TUESDAY MORNING.

..LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS SWWD INTO OK...

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS/PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY HAVE LIMITED AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL OK NEWD
THROUGH ERN KS AND NWRN MO. TO THE E...NEWD TRANSPORT OF AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED WITH STRONGER DIABATIC
HEATING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM
SRN/CNTRL OK INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL MO...DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF. 18Z SGF SOUNDING/. FURTHER
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION.

LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW TSTMS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF ABOVEMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND FROM WRN MO
INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK. FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY COUPLED WITH
DECREASING STABILITY IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF MO SWWD INTO OK.

REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE
STRONGEST LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDES INVOF WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY /I.E. EFFECTIVE SRH OF
300-400 M2 PER S2 AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 50-60 KT/...WITH A
GENERAL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE OF THESE VALUES SWWD THROUGH
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. WHILE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY
BE LINEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED BOWING OR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR SOME HAIL AND A COUPLE TORNADOES IN
ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD/S 2049/2050.

..UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER MIDWEST...

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION HAVE LIMITED HEATING AHEAD OF
FRONT TODAY WITH AIR MASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE /MUCAPES AOB 500-800 J PER KG/. NONETHELESS...STRONG DEEP
LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT
AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM PORTIONS OF MN/IA EWD INTO WI/IL. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...HOWEVER THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT.
STILL...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

.MEAD.. 10/02/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 700

WWUS20 KWNS 021958
SEL0
SPC WW 021958
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-030300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 700
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT TUE OCT 2 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF
COLUMBIA MISSOURI TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TULSA OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WITHIN ERN AND SRN PORTION
OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN SUSTAINED OVER SERN KS INTO
WRN/CENTRAL MO AND NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ALONG STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO THE WATCH
THIS EVENING. STRONG HEATING WITHIN AN UNSEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT...SUPERCELLS AND
SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES CAN BE EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
WW THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

..EVANS

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KDVN [021946]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 021946
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM HEAVY RAIN CEDAR RAPIDS 41.97N 91.67W
10/02/2007 M1.00 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
CEDAR RAPIDS.

&&

$$

JH2

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2050

ACUS11 KWNS 021932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021932
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN... CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021932Z - 022130Z

PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY FROM NW OF IRK TO E OF MKC
TO SERN KS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF LINE HAS HEATED AND DESTABILIZED
WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE REMAINING
CINH. MODEL AND OBSERVED 18Z SGF SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONGER IN NRN MO...ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH
CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA.

SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...GENERALLY 6C/KM. HOWEVER STORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
ROTATING CELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL LINE. STORM MODE SHOULD
EVOLVE MOSTLY INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH WIND DAMAGE
BECOMING PRIMARY THREAT.

WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z.

.HALES.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

36539579 38129449 39199365 39819265 39339186 38529169
37509171 36939196 36579321 36139554

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KDVN [021931]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 021931
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
231 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0202 PM HAIL CEDAR RAPIDS 41.97N 91.67W
10/02/2007 M0.25 INCH LINN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL AND 30-40 MPH WIND REPORTED ON THE SW SIDE
OF CEDAR RAPIDS.

&&

$$

JH2

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2049

ACUS11 KWNS 021931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021931
OKZ000-KSZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/W-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021931Z - 022100Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES ALONG A SHARP COLD
FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION. THE REGION
WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS.

AS OF 19Z...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM
AROUND 20 N ICT SWWD TO 35 S GAG. VIS SATELLITE DEPICTS GROWING
CU/SMALL CBS ALONG THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...SEVERAL PRE-FRONTAL
CONFLUENT BANDS AND CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE
PRESENT ACROSS N-CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS. ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS
ONGOING ACTIVITY INVOF END TO PNC...A NOTABLE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY. EXPECT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TO FILL-IN BETWEEN THIS AREA OF TSTMS AND THOSE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND
30-40 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 TO 2000
J/KG/...SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT WITH POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
LARGELY MODULATE THE OVERALL THREAT WITH UPSCALE CONSOLIDATION INTO
ONE OF MORE MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS THE LIKELY SCENARIO.

.GRAMS.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

35949736 35659825 35289908 35269974 35689991 36259921
36579864 36899781 37129669 37019593 36659577 36249586
36059629 35959722

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KCHS [021921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 021921
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 SE NORTH CHARLESTON 32.83N 79.95W
10/02/2007 CHARLESTON SC NWS STORM SURVEY

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG RIVERFRONT PARK.

0300 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 SE NORTH CHARLESTON 32.82N 79.94W
10/02/2007 CHARLESTON SC NWS STORM SURVEY

PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON NAVY BASE IS FLOODED. JUNEAU
AVENUE HEADING TO THE COOPER RIVER MARINA IS SEVERELY
FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. WATER IS APPROACHING BAINBRIDGE
AVENUE NEAR THE SECURITY CHECK-IN STATION.

&&

$$

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KCHS [021842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 021842
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
242 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/02/2007 CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

BEE STREET WAS FLOODED NEAR MUSC AND THE RALPH JOHNSON
MEDICAL CENTER.

&&

$$

VB

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KJAX [021751]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021751
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
151 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HEAVY RAIN N UNF 30.28N 81.51W
10/02/2007 U0.00 INCH DUVAL FL BROADCAST MEDIA

A LOCAL TV METEOROLOGIST REPORTED HEAVY RAIN WAS CAUSING
PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR STREET FLOODING ON THE
SOUTHSIDE OF JACKSONVILLE. THE TV STATION IS NEAR THE
UNIVERITY OF NORTH FLORIDA. RAIN BEGAN AT 700 AM EDT AND
IT WAS STILL RAINING AT THE TIME OF THE REPORT.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2048

ACUS11 KWNS 021658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021657
FLZ000-021900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021657Z - 021900Z

TROPICAL AIR MASS WITH PW/S AROUND 2.25 WITH MUCAPES TO 2500
J/KG...HAVE SPREAD NWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA ON SLY FLOW
TO E OF SFC/UPR LOW OVER ERN GOM. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY
25KT OR LESS...THE SFC-1KM SHEAR OF 20KT...PARTICULARLY CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA...SUPPORTS POTENTIAL ROTATING UPDRAFTS. ENHANCED LOW E/W
CONVERGENCE TPA TO MLB ALONG WITH DEVELOPING INLAND MOVING E COAST
SEA BREEZE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT THIS AREA WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR
STRONG/ISOLATED STORMS THRU AFTERNOON HEATING PERIOD. ALONG WITH
WET MICRO-BURSTS...ONE OR TWO BRIEF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WATCH BUT
AREA WILL BE MONITORED THRU THE AFTERNOON.

.HALES.. 10/02/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

28638272 29218113 28188054 27228026 26898064 26688126
26778224 27718274

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KJAX [021644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021644
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1243 PM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1239 PM HEAVY RAIN RIVERSIDE 30.31N 81.68W
10/02/2007 U0.00 INCH DUVAL FL TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WATER BEGINNING TO ACCUMLATE
IN NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF RIVERSIDE. WATER WAS
REPORTED TO BE PONDING IN THE ROADWAYS NEAR ST VINCINTS
HOSPITAL...ON STOCKTON STREET...THE INTERSECTION OF KINGS
STREET AND OAK STREET AND ON ST JOHNS AVENUE.

&&

$$

SANDRIK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021641
SWODY2
SPC AC 021640

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST FROM THE NERN PACIFIC
EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
DE-AMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO ERN CANADA. ELSEWHERE...DEEP LAYER
CYCLONE WILL SHIFT NWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY WHILE
PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY...WITH SRN
EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER TX.

THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER THE
SERN STATES WEDNESDAY WITHIN ZONE OF CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
NE OF CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...NAMELY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. A FEW STRONG TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK...MOIST ADIABATIC
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WEAK DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY SWWD INTO THE MID SOUTH SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY AFTERNOON. FARTHER SW...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SRN
ROCKIES. FINALLY...COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF
UPPER JET AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WHERE A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.MEAD.. 10/02/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021618
SWODY1
SPC AC 021615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...

..PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET
NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT /WHICH EXTENDED FROM ERN SD INTO SWRN KS/NRN TX
PANHANDLE AT 15Z/ TO PUSH STEADILY SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. PREFRONTAL
AIR MASS IS UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS WILL DEVELOP
NEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE
PRESENCE OF HIGH THETA-E AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME
FACTORS REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCLUDE THE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES SAMPLED ON
12Z SOUNDINGS AND HAVING LARGER SCALE ASCENT LIFTING AWAY FROM
MODEST INSTABILITY AXIS OVER OK/ERN KS/WRN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING ONGOING BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SLOW INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED FROM
N-CENTRAL/NERN OK INTO SERN IA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
HEATING BOOSTS INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES REMAIN
WEAK...MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SFC DEW
POINTS NEAR 70F/ SHOULD SUPPORT AXIS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE FROM
SWRN OK INTO SWRN/CENTRAL MO. MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW 1000 J/KG INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUFFICE FOR INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
THROUGH THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN STRONG LOW
AND MID LEVEL SHEAR.

/SW MO INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY/
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST FROM THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU
NNEWD AS 50 KT MID LEVEL JET AND 40+ KT LLJ EJECT TOWARDS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DEPEND
UPON OVERALL STORM MODE...WITH 150+ SFC-1 KM SRH AND HIGH BOUNDARY
LAYER RH FAVORING A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SUPERCELLS REMAIN
DISCRETE. GIVEN STRONG SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ALMOST NORMAL TO
EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS...ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES AND
SUPPORT MAIN THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL STORMS ARE
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP INTO A BROKEN
SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS ENE
OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY AXIS DURING THE EVENING.

/NW TX INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU/
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AS
FAR SW AS THE OZARK REGION/NERN OK...WITH WEAKER SHEAR FAVORING MORE
MULTICELL MODES INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING.

..FL...
S TO SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY
AS SUB TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES WWD. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE NWD AND SFC HEATING SHOULD AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF BANDS OF
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS. MODERATE LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY INTO NRN FL /AS EVIDENCED ON MORNING
VWPS/ INVOF DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STALLED NE/SW ACROSS REGION. SETUP MAY
YIELD A FEW STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 10/02/2007

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KFSD [021408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KFSD 021408
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
908 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL MADISON 44.01N 97.11W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH LAKE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0320 PM HAIL 7 W COLMAN 43.98N 96.96W
09/30/2007 M0.75 INCH LAKE SD PUBLIC

0327 PM HAIL 9 N COLMAN 44.12N 96.82W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH MOODY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0330 PM HAIL MECKLING 42.84N 97.07W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH CLAY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

0340 PM HAIL 5 N MECKLING 42.91N 97.07W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH CLAY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0350 PM HAIL 2 NW ALCESTER 43.04N 96.66W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH UNION SD PUBLIC

0353 PM HAIL 11 N FLANDREAU 44.21N 96.60W
09/30/2007 E0.88 INCH BROOKINGS SD TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ALONG
HIGHWAY 13

0353 PM HAIL 10 N FLANDREAU 44.19N 96.60W
09/30/2007 E0.88 INCH MOODY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT COVERING THE GROUND ON
HIGHWAY 13 AT BROOKINGS MOODY COUNTY LINE

0400 PM HAIL 5 NE MECKLING 42.89N 97.00W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH CLAY SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0405 PM HAIL 3 N ALCESTER 43.07N 96.63W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH UNION SD TRAINED SPOTTER

40-50 MPH WINDS AND PENNY SIZED HAIL

0415 PM HAIL HUDSON 43.13N 96.46W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH LINCOLN SD PUBLIC

0420 PM HAIL 6 WSW ROCK VALLEY 43.17N 96.41W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH SIOUX IA TRAINED SPOTTER

TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH WATER IN BASEMENT

0424 PM HAIL 6 W ROCK VALLEY 43.20N 96.42W
09/30/2007 M0.75 INCH SIOUX IA PUBLIC

0427 PM TORNADO 5 SW ROCK VALLEY 43.15N 96.37W
09/30/2007 SIOUX IA STORM CHASER

0430 PM HAIL 5 SW ROCK VALLEY 43.15N 96.37W
09/30/2007 M1.75 INCH SIOUX IA PUBLIC

0430 PM HAIL 9 SW HUBBARD 42.29N 96.71W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH DAKOTA NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0444 PM HAIL AKRON 42.83N 96.56W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH PLYMOUTH IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0445 PM HAIL 2 W SALIX 42.31N 96.33W
09/30/2007 E0.88 INCH WOODBURY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

OVER 50 MPH WINDS WITH BRANCHES DOWN

0450 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SW SIOUX CENTER 43.06N 96.20W
09/30/2007 E60.00 MPH SIOUX IA PUBLIC

0505 PM HAIL AKRON 42.83N 96.56W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH PLYMOUTH IA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AND STRIPPED TREES BARE

0505 PM TSTM WND GST ANTHON 42.39N 95.87W
09/30/2007 E0.00 MPH WOODBURY IA COUNTY OFFICIAL

60 MPH WINDS BLEW CAR OFF ROAD -ALSO NICKEL HAIL

0510 PM HAIL BRUNSVILLE 42.81N 96.27W
09/30/2007 M1.00 INCH PLYMOUTH IA PUBLIC

60 MPH WINDS AND TREE LIMBS DOWN.

0520 PM HAIL 3 SE ANTHON 42.36N 95.82W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH WOODBURY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

LEAVES BLOWING OFF TREES, WIND SPEED UNKNOWN

0530 PM FLASH FLOOD BRUNSVILLE 42.81N 96.27W
09/30/2007 PLYMOUTH IA PUBLIC

3.05 INCHES OF RAIN

0530 PM HAIL 4 SW CRAIG 42.85N 96.37W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH PLYMOUTH IA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0543 PM HAIL 3 E CUSHING 42.47N 95.62W
09/30/2007 M2.00 INCH IDA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0543 PM HAIL 1 E CUSHING 42.47N 95.66W
09/30/2007 E1.00 INCH IDA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0545 PM HAIL HOLSTEIN 42.49N 95.54W
09/30/2007 E0.75 INCH IDA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0549 PM HAIL 5 SE HOLSTEIN 42.44N 95.47W
09/30/2007 E1.25 INCH IDA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0550 PM HAIL 2 SW QUIMBY 42.61N 95.67W
09/30/2007 M1.00 INCH CHEROKEE IA PUBLIC

0608 PM TSTM WND GST 3 N OYENS 42.86N 96.06W
09/30/2007 E60.00 MPH PLYMOUTH IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0625 PM TSTM WND GST ALTA 42.67N 95.30W
09/30/2007 E60.00 MPH BUENA VISTA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CJANSEN

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KJAX [021318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021318
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
918 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
10/02/2007 DUVAL FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

A LIFE GUARD SUPERVISOR REPORTS TIDES HAVE BEEN UNUSUALLY
HIGH AND WATER IS COMING OVER THE BERMS INTO STREETS. LOW
TIDE WAS AT 7 AM EDT.

&&

$$

MKT

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KJAX [021318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021318
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
918 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0854 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES ST. AUGUSTINE BEACH 29.84N 81.27W
10/02/2007 ST. JOHNS FL COUNTY OFFICIAL

A LIFE GUARD SUPERVISOR REPORTS FOUR MILES OF MAJOR BEACH
EROSION HAS OCCURRED IN THREE SEPARATE AREAS ALONG ST.
JOHNS COUNTY BEACHES. THE AREAS ARE SOUTH OF THE GATE
STATION IN SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH...AT ST. AUGUSTINE
BEACH NEAR THE PIER...AND NEAR MARINELAND. ALSO...LOW
LYING AREAS ARE FLOODING DURING HIGH TIDES.

&&

$$

MKT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021255
SWODY1
SPC AC 021252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE MID
MS VLY...

..SYNOPSIS...
BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF AK/NE PAC THIS PERIOD AS

RIDGE LINGERS OVER MEXICO. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER CO/WY...
EMBEDDED IN FAST WLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM PAC TROUGH...WILL ASSUME A
SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CONTINUES E/NE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLNS
TODAY...AND ACROSS UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
CONTINUE SLOWLY WWD.

AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT WITH CO/WY SYSTEM WILL SWEEP E/SE ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLNS AND UPR MS VLY TODAY...AND THE UPR GRT LKS/MID MS VLY
AND THE OZARKS TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER N TX ON WEDNESDAY. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING.

..SRN PLNS INTO MID MS VLY...
COLD FRONT AND...FARTHER S...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...SHOULD SERVE AS
THE MAIN FOCI FOR SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM NW TX/WRN OK NE INTO THE MID MS VLY. OTHER SFC OR
NEAR-SFC-BASED STORMS MAY EVOLVE ON ERN EDGE OF CURRENT BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION AS THAT BAND SHIFTS E INTO ERN KS/MO AND SRN IA
LATER TODAY.

AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIMIT LOW-LVL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS NRN PART OF SLIGHT RISK AREA. BUT
COMBINATION OF FAIRLY STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING UPR IMPULSE...SUBSTANTIAL /40-45 KT/ DEEP WSWLY SHEAR...
30+ KT LOW-LVL SHEAR...AND LINEAR UPLIFT ALONG FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW
FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL CREATE SETUP FAVORABLE FOR A BROKEN
BAND OR TWO OF STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES DESPITE WEAK LOW TO MID
LVL LAPSE RATES.

FARTHER SW...IN WAKE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BAND...GREATER SFC
HEATING EXPECTED OVER WRN OK INTO NW. REGION WILL BE FAIRLY FAR
REMOVED FROM STRONGER ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BUT GIVEN ENHANCED LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION AND CONVERGENCE
INVOF COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTERSECTION...IN ADDITION TO
PROXIMITY OF HI LVL SPEED MAX/DIFFLUENCE MAX...SETUP COULD YIELD A
FEW SUSTAINED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS
WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO
SMALL CLUSTERS THAT MOVE E/SE BEFORE WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.

..FL...
S TO SELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE FL PENINSULA TODAY
AS SUB TROPICAL LOW CONTINUES WWD. ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE NWD...SFC HEATING AND...POSSIBLY...INCREASING HI-LVL FLOW
WILL CREATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
STORMS. MODERATE LOW-LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
EXIST...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND NRN PARTS OF THE PENINSULA INVOF
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY STALLED NE/SW ACROSS REGION. SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW
STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR A DMGG WIND GUST
OR TWO.

.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 10/02/2007

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KJAX [021254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021254 CCA
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
853 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1242 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 N MAYPORT 30.39N 81.42W
10/01/2007 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE MAYPORT NOS TIDE GAUGE MEASURED 6.58 FT MLLW WHICH
WAS ABOUT 0.8 TO 1 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDE. MINOR
FLOODING BEGINS AROUND 6.4 FT MLLW.

0130 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 5 SSE DUNGENESS 30.67N 81.45W
10/01/2007 NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE FERNANDINA NOS TIDE GAUGE MEASURED 8.5 FT MLLW WHICH
WAS 1.1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDE. MINOR FLOODING BEGINS
AROUND 8.5 FT MLLW.

&&

$$

ARS

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KJAX [021253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021253
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
853 AM EDT TUE OCT 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1242 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 N MAYPORT 30.39N 81.42W
10/01/2007 DUVAL FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE MAYPORT NOS TIDE GAUGE MEASURED 6.58 FT MLLW WHICH
WAS ABOUT 0.8 TO 1 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDE. MINOR
FLOODING BEGINS AROUND 6.4 FT MLLW.

0130 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 5 SSE DUNGENESS 30.67N 81.45W
10/01/2007 NASSAU FL OTHER FEDERAL

THE FERNANDINA NOS TIDE GAUGE MEASURED 8.5 FT MLLW WHICH
WAS 1.1 FT ABOVE PREDICTED TIDE. MINOR FLOODING BEINGS
AROUND 8.5 FT MLLW.

&&

$$

ARS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020901
SWOD48
SPC AC 020900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

..SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...10/05 THRU 10/06...

CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY CONTINUES TO EXIST AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE
FORECAST GUIDANCE...CONCERNING THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION SUBSEQUENT
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE
NATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THIS WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER...BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE 500 MB PATTERN NOW EXISTS AMONG
THE LATEST ECMWF...GFS...AND MREF...THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART
OF THE COMING WEEKEND. AND...IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT
A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS
WEEK...THEN PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVE OUTBREAK FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS
INCLUDES THE RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS THE EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THREAT COULD
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT WEAKENING LAPSE RATES AND UNCERTAIN
INFLUENCE OF REMNANTS OF SYSTEM LIFTING NORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
PRECLUDE OUTLOOKING AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.KERR.. 10/02/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020714
SWODY3
SPC AC 020712

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU AFTN AND EARLY THU EVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLATEAU....

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN PLAINS....

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
COMMENCING LATE WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH A
LARGE POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES...AND A
DOWNSTREAM EASTERN STATES RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. JUST AHEAD OF THE POLAR
TROUGH...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD...INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A SUBSTANTIAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES. A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR
FROM THE SOUTHERN THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.

MEANWHILE...CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BUT...GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

..CENTRAL/SRN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...
IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF THE SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE THAN SUGGESTED BY THE NAM. AND...THE
EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE STRATIFICATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...WHERE SIZABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG IS ALSO
EXPECTED.

BY PEAK HEATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
DESTABILIZATION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE LOWER DESERTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MOGOLLON RIM. WITH
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...A FEW SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY WITH THE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS STABILIZATION OCCURS WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO WESTERN COLORADO...THE MAGNITUDE
OF MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZATION IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT
TIME. BUT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION IN ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..PLAINS...
A WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CAP RETURNING MOISTURE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW...AND BENEATH THE INFLECTION BETWEEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. INITIATION IS
EXPECTED AS A RAPID MOISTENING ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION SUPPORTS
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...ENHANCED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN THE CONVECTIVE LAYER. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.

.KERR.. 10/02/2007

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