SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021932
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-022130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT TUE OCT 02 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN... CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021932Z - 022130Z
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY FROM NW OF IRK TO E OF MKC
TO SERN KS. AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF LINE HAS HEATED AND DESTABILIZED
WITH MLCAPES RANGING UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE REMAINING
CINH. MODEL AND OBSERVED 18Z SGF SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-40 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONGER IN NRN MO...ASSOCIATED WITH S/WV TROUGH
CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE AREA.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY THE RATHER WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...GENERALLY 6C/KM. HOWEVER STORMS INCLUDING POSSIBLE
ROTATING CELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ASSOCIATED
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH PRE-FRONTAL LINE. STORM MODE SHOULD
EVOLVE MOSTLY INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS WITH WIND DAMAGE
BECOMING PRIMARY THREAT.
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z.
.HALES.. 10/02/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
36539579 38129449 39199365 39819265 39339186 38529169
37509171 36939196 36579321 36139554
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