KBOI [050354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 050354
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 PM HEAVY RAIN MIDDLETON 43.71N 116.62W
10/04/2008 M0.55 INCH CANYON ID TRAINED SPOTTER

0942 PM HEAVY RAIN BOISE 43.61N 116.23W
10/04/2008 E1.50 INCH ADA ID MESONET

BOGUS BASIN SKI RESORT

0942 PM HEAVY RAIN BOISE 43.61N 116.23W
10/04/2008 M0.41 INCH ADA ID ASOS

BOI BOISE AIRPORT

0942 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NE CALDWELL 43.68N 116.65W
10/04/2008 M0.75 INCH CANYON ID AWOS

CALDWELL INDUSTRIAL AIRPORT EUL

0946 PM HEAVY RAIN MERIDIAN 43.61N 116.40W
10/04/2008 M0.67 INCH ADA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GSKARI

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KVEF [050351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 050351
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
851 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.77N 118.28W
10/04/2008 M60 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE 1 MEASURED A GUST OF 60 MPH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

0240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WSW INDEPENDENCE 36.78N 118.24W
10/04/2008 M41 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE 2 MEASURED A WIND GUST AT 41 MPH
AROUND 0240 PM.

0200 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E INDEPENDENCE 36.79N 118.17W
10/03/2008 M41 MPH INYO CA MESONET

SIERRA ROTORS SITE 4 RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 41 MPH.

&&

$$

LINDAMAN

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KBOI [050351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 050351
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
951 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

GSKARI

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KBOI [050350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 050350
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
949 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

GSKARI

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KMFR [050212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 050212
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
711 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE SCOTTSBURG 43.67N 123.81W
10/04/2008 M1.55 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

$$

DW

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KVEF [050135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 050135
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
635 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW PANACA 37.81N 114.41W
10/04/2008 M0.51 INCH LINCOLN NV TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER IN PANACA REPORTED 0.51 INCHES OF RAIN
FALLING BETWEEN 0600PM AND 0630PM. SPOTTER ALSO REPORTED
TEMPERATURE DROP OF 25 DEGREES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

$$

LINDAMAN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLUTION CONTINUES ON SYNOPTIC SCALE...WITH
HEIGHTS CONTINUING TO FALL ACROSS ROCKIES AND GREAT PLAINS AS
TROUGHING SHIFTS EWD AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS GREAT BASIN/4-CORNERS
REGIONS. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER SERN CA AND SRN NV -- AS OF 00Z -- AND SHOULD DIG ESEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN AZ THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP DATA OVER ERN UT AND SERN ID --
SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS WY OVERNIGHT. RESULTING TIGHTENING OF
HEIGHT GRADIENTS AND INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
ROCKIES WILL MAINTAIN AND SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING...AS WELL AS SUPPORT STG LOW LEVEL WAA OVER LARGE SWATH OF
PLAINS STATES AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.

AT SFC...WARM FRONT PREVIOUSLY EVIDENT FROM WRN KS SEWD ACROSS OK TO
CENTRAL TX HAS BECOME DIFFUSE...MANIFEST MORE AS MOISTURE THAN
THERMAL BOUNDARY -- EFFECTIVE DRYLINE -- DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
WARM FRONT IS REFORMING FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY REGION...AND SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND LIFT NWD ACROSS PORTIONS
NEB/MO OVERNIGHT.

OLDER...QUASISTATIONARY AND DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN LOW LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GEN TSTM POTENTIAL OVER S FL...KEYS AND
ADJACENT WATERS. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL COLD FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH WRN CONUS MID-UPPER TROUGHING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...MERGING WITH LEE TROUGHING
OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS BY AROUND 12Z.

...IA AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION
LATE IN PERIOD -- PRIMARILY AFTER APPROXIMATELY 08Z -- AND
MOVE/DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD SERN MN AND WI.
STG LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ABOVE
SFC AND DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS CONTINUING
ISENTROPIC LIFT PROCESS BEGINS TO BOOST INCREASINGLY HUMID PARCELS
TO LFC. UPSTREAM RAOB/TAMDAR DATA AND TIME SERIES OF RUC FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP TO
SUPPORT TSTMS -- 100-400 J/KG -- BUT ALSO...RELATIVELY HIGH BASED
AND WITH WEAK MOISTURE. GIVEN SUCH MEAGER BUOYANCY...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOB 35 KT IN MOST FCST SOUNDINGS...PRIND
ACCOMPANYING HAIL POTENTIAL IS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO CONTINUE
5-PERCENT PROBABILITIES.

...HIGH PLAINS WWD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
GREATEST CONCENTRATIONS OF CONVECTION MAY REMAIN BENEATH AND JUST
AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE CA/NV TROUGH...AND IN SRN HIGH PLAINS WAA
REGIME. AT LEAST MRGL MOISTURE...COOLING ALOFT AND RELATED
STEEPENING OF LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD OFFSET SFC COOLING
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THUNDER THREAT FROM CURRENT SRN NV CONCENTRATION
EWD AND SEWD ACROSS SRN UT/NRN AZ...PRIMARILY N OF UPPER JET AND
BENEATH ITS LEFT EXIT REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITH
CAPE SUBSTANTIALLY LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT. PRESENCE OF
STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN BOTH AREAS INDICATES NONZERO SVR
THREAT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AND WEAK FOR AOA
5-PERCENT GRIDPOINT PROBABILITIES ATTM.

OTHERWISE...COMBINATION OF VERY MRGL MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
SUPPORT EPISODIC...NON-SVR TSTMS ACROSS BROAD SWATH OF W-CENTRAL
CONUS.

..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2008

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KHNX [050003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 050003
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
502 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 W TULARE 36.19N 119.52W
10/04/2008 KINGS CA PUBLIC

RECEIVED TWO SEPARATE REPORTS, ONE WAS FROM TULARE FIRE
DEPT AT 1625 PDT AND OTHER WAS FROM A SPOTTER PARKED ON
HIGHWAY 137 JUST NORTH OF WAUKENA. FUNNEL EXTENDED ABOUT
HALFWAY TO THE GROUND IN BOTH REPORTS. LASTED ABOUT 10
MINUTES. ALSO NOTICED A SMALL CELL IN 1554 PDT RADAR
SCAN.

&&

$$

BSO

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KVEF [042343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 042343
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
442 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DAGGETT 34.86N 116.88W
10/04/2008 E49 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

BARSTOW-DAGGETT AIRPORT HAS BEEN RECORDING WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 40 MPH AND POOR VISBILITY SINCE ABOUT 0100 PDT.
THE PEAK WIND WAS 49 MPH AND WAS MEASURED AT 0306 AND
0312 PDT.

0414 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS 35.15N 117.18W
10/04/2008 M54 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

OPAL MOUNTAIN RAWS HAS BEEN RECORDING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40 MPH AND GREATER SINCE ABOUT 1200 PDT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PEAK WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT 54 MPH AT 0414 PDT.

&&

$$

LINDAMAN

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KEKA [042139]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KEKA 042139
LSREKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
238 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN HONEYDEW 40.23N 124.12W
10/04/2008 M4.71 INCH HUMBOLDT CA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 900 AM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN PETROLIA 40.32N 124.28W
10/04/2008 M4.46 INCH HUMBOLDT CA MESONET

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN GASQUET 41.85N 123.97W
10/04/2008 M4.00 INCH DEL NORTE CA MESONET

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN GARBERVILLE 40.10N 123.80W
10/04/2008 M2.96 INCH HUMBOLDT CA MESONET

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN KNEELAND 40.75N 123.98W
10/04/2008 M2.18 INCH HUMBOLDT CA MESONET

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN CRESCENT CITY 41.75N 124.20W
10/04/2008 M1.56 INCH DEL NORTE CA ASOS

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN WEAVERVILLE 40.73N 122.94W
10/04/2008 M1.25 INCH TRINITY CA MESONET

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN EUREKA 40.80N 124.16W
10/04/2008 M0.88 INCH HUMBOLDT CA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN UKIAH 39.15N 123.21W
10/04/2008 M0.79 INCH MENDOCINO CA ASOS

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

0200 PM HEAVY RAIN POTTER VALLEY 39.32N 123.12W
10/04/2008 M0.65 INCH MENDOCINO CA MESONET

72 HOUR STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ENDING AT 200 PM PDT.

&&

$$

BURGER

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KAMA [042112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 042112
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
412 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW HEREFORD 34.84N 102.42W
10/04/2008 M59 MPH DEAF SMITH TX MESONET

TEXAS TECH MESONET RECORDED GUST TO 59 MPH. EMERGENCY
MANAGER ALSO RELAYED ESTIMATED GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA0800877

$$

CK

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KREV [042105]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KREV 042105
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
205 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE ALPINE MEADOWS 39.18N 120.16W
10/04/2008 M1.20 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL IN 24 HRS MAINLY FROM 300PM TO 700AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

0725 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.34N 120.25W
10/04/2008 M1.00 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 24 HRS MAINLY FROM 300PM TO 700AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

1003 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 S SUSANVILLE 40.32N 120.56W
10/04/2008 E0.42 INCH LASSEN CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0.42 INCHES OF RAINFALL AT 4500 FEET NEAR JANESVILLE.
0.15 INCHES IN THE FLATS AWAY FROM TOWN.

&&

$$

JKIELHOR

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 042000
SWODY1
SPC AC 041957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MO VALLEY INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...

SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LA NWWD THROUGH WRN PARTS OF
OK/KS AS OF 18Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
OWING TO LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. PLANAR
VAD DATA IN THE 1-1.5 KM LAYER INDICATE THAT WIND FIELDS ARE BACKING
IN RESPONSE TO THIS CYCLOGENESIS WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE NWD RETURN
OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS /PER CURRENT GOES SOUNDER/GPS IPW
DATA/. THE NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE
THIS PROCESS BENEATH EML/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH MUCAPE
INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT TO
THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF LLJ WHERE
CONVERGENCE/WAA WILL BE FOCUSED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP
EWD/NEWD WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO THE DIURNAL VEERING OF THE LLJ.
SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 10/04/2008

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KPIH [041936]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041936
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
136 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE BURLEY 42.52N 113.76W
10/04/2008 M0.90 INCH CASSIA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATION SINCE EVENT BEGAN ON 3 OCT IN VIEW, IDAHO, 2
SE OF BURLEY.

&&

$$

GEW

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KPIH [041922]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041922
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
122 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE POCATELLO 42.91N 112.42W
10/04/2008 M1.24 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATION SINCE EVENT BEGAN 24 HOURS AGO IN HIGHLAND
AREA OF CITY ABOVE FAIRGROUNDS.

&&

$$

GEW

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KPIH [041844]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041844
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1244 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN REXBURG 43.83N 111.79W
10/04/2008 M0.32 INCH MADISON ID ASOS

ACCUMULATION SINCE EVENT BEGAN ON 3 OCT.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN POCATELLO 42.88N 112.47W
10/04/2008 M0.94 INCH BANNOCK ID ASOS

MEASUREMENT SINCE EVENT BEGAN ON 3 OCT.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN IDAHO FALLS 43.49N 112.04W
10/04/2008 M0.38 INCH BONNEVILLE ID ASOS

ACCUMULATION SINCE EVENT BEGAN ON 3 OCT.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SW MONTPELIER 42.26N 111.38W
10/04/2008 M0.38 INCH BEAR LAKE ID MESONET

ACCUMULATION SINCE EVENT BEGAN ON 3 OCT AT THE BEAR LAKE
COUNTY AIRPORT.

1200 PM HEAVY RAIN BURLEY 42.54N 113.79W
10/04/2008 M0.72 INCH CASSIA ID ASOS

ACCUMULATION SINCE EVENT BEGAN ON 3 OCT.

1215 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW CHUBBUCK 42.92N 112.48W
10/04/2008 M0.70 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

ACCUMULATION SINCE EVENT BEGAN 3 OCT.

1215 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 W INKOM 42.80N 112.26W
10/04/2008 M0.70 INCH BANNOCK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

ACCUMULATION IN THE PAST 12 HOURS.

&&

$$

GEW

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KPIH [041843]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041843
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1242 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

&&

$$

GEW

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KPIH [041803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041803
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
1203 PM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1152 AM HEAVY RAIN RUPERT 42.62N 113.67W
10/04/2008 M0.70 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE RAIN BEGAN 3 OCT/930 PM

1152 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W BLACKFOOT 43.20N 112.45W
10/04/2008 M0.70 INCH BINGHAM ID TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE RAIN BEGAN 03 OCT/1145 PM

&&

$$

JMESSICK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041702
SWODY2
SPC AC 041700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF FAR ERN NM...WRN
TX AND WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WILL BE
INTENSE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL ASSUME AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT
WHILE TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THE
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
FOCUSED FROM NM EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A LEE CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN CO BEFORE
DEVELOPING EWD INTO CNTRL KS. AN ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH
EWD FROM NM INTO WRN TX BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WRN OK BY MONDAY MORNING.

...SRN PLAINS...

STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE NWD
ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S TO PERHAPS
LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EARLY
IN THE DAY MAY TEMPER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPE REMAINING
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. NONETHELESS...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FOSTER AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FROM ERN NM INTO WRN TX.

AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT REGION OF
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL RESULT IN BACKING SFC-850 MB WIND FIELDS
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT WITH WIND PROFILES BECOMING
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EMBEDDED IN EVOLVING LARGER-SCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS
THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED...MULTI-MODAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.
THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO NWRN TX AND WRN OK SUNDAY NIGHT.

..MEAD.. 10/04/2008

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KMFR [041634]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041634
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
934 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0859 AM HEAVY RAIN NNE AZALEA 42.80N 123.26W
10/04/2008 M1.57 INCH DOUGLAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER

OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 9AM PDT. 0.80 INCHES
MEASURED SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041620
SWODY1
SPC AC 041617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD/DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INLAND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND REACH THE HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING/WEAK
INSTABILITY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AZ/NM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITHIN THE BAND OF STRONG ASCENT PRECEDING THE STRONG
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM SE CA/SRN NV.

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS INVOF TXK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SWLY LLJ AND MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS AREA
DIMINISHES. THE LLJ WILL BACK TO SLY AND STRENGTHEN FARTHER N
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...RESULTING IN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT NWD FROM TX/OK TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NRN EDGE OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE WILL BE
MARKED BY A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL LIFT NWD FROM KS/OK TO NEB/IA BY
TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTENING WILL BE FOCUSED BY THE LLJ
ALONG THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED WARM FRONT TONIGHT FROM ERN NEB/SD INTO
IA. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTENING AND LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT IN THE ZONE OF WAA AND
ALONG THE ERN/NERN EDGE OF THE CAP. ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF
500-750 J/KG/ MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL LATE TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 10/04/2008

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KMFR [041602]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041602
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
902 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0859 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE SELMA 42.34N 123.57W
10/04/2008 M1.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL MEASURED AT 9AM PDT.

&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KSHV [041517]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 041517
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1017 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HAIL WRIGHT CITY 34.06N 95.01W
10/04/2008 E0.75 INCH MCCURTAIN OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

18

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KPIH [041514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 041514
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
914 AM MDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN POCATELLO 42.88N 112.47W
10/04/2008 M0.91 INCH BANNOCK ID NWS EMPLOYEE

TOTAL SINCE BEGINNING OF EVENT 18 HOURS AGO AND STILL
RAINING.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE RUPERT 42.61N 113.66W
10/04/2008 M0.82 INCH MINIDOKA ID TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED IN LAST 12 HOURS.

&&

$$

GEW

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KREV [041427]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KREV 041427
LSRREV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
727 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 ENE ALPINE MEADOWS 39.18N 120.16W
10/04/2008 M1.20 INCH PLACER CA TRAINED SPOTTER

FELL IN 24 HRS MAINLY FROM 300PM TO 700AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

0725 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 WSW PROSSER CREEK RES 39.34N 120.25W
10/04/2008 M1.00 INCH NEVADA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL IN 24 HRS MAINLY FROM 300PM TO 700AM SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

$$

RCRUZ

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KMFR [041326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041326
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
626 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 AM HEAVY RAIN S GOLD BEACH 42.41N 124.42W
10/04/2008 M1.30 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 625AM...SPOTTER REPORTED
AN ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 61 MPH WHICH OCCURED 207 PM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KMFR [041259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041259
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
559 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 AM HEAVY RAIN N BONANZA 42.20N 121.40W
10/04/2008 M0.48 INCH KLAMATH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

22 HOUR ACCUMULATION....

&&

$$

BUNKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041240
SWODY1
SPC AC 041237

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CARVE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES AND ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST...PRESSURE FALLS WILL
SOLIDIFY SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING FROM LOW
CENTER OVER ERN MT INTO WRN TX. IN ADDITION...LARGER WARM FRONT
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE
LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TODAY...WITH ERN END LIFTING NNEWD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS.

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AS SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...LOCATION FOR MOST
FAVORABLE DEEP ASCENT ALONG NOSE STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST
MUCAPE AND LIKELY SUPPORT HAIL /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE/ IN THE STRONGER CORES.

...ELSEWHERE...
ONGOING CLUSTER/S OF STORMS OVER ERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO AND
WRN AR ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING AS
DIURNAL MIXING WEAKENS WSWLY LLJ. PRIMARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SHIFT TO DIURNAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION
WITHIN LARGER AREA OF SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. DEEP MIXING NEAR LEE TROUGH MAY
ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY.

..EVANS.. 10/04/2008

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KMFR [041233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 041233
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
533 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 NE GOLD BEACH 42.45N 124.37W
10/04/2008 M1.62 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR ACCUMULATION ENDING AT 5AM...

&&

$$

BUNKER

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KICT [041017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 041017
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
517 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM HAIL CHERRYVALE 37.27N 95.55W
10/04/2008 E0.88 INCH MONTGOMERY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CDJ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 040826
SWOD48
SPC AC 040825

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4 TO 5 (TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) - MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND CUTOFF OVER SE TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION
AND SUBSEQUENTLY ADVANCE EAST. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH
HOW THE MODELS HANDEL THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER
THAN THE ECMWF AND LARGE SPREADS EXIST AMONG MREF MEMBERS BY DAY 5.
SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MIGHT EXIST OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...BUT UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE INTRODUCING AN OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME.

BEYOND DAY 5....PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2008

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KICT [040823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 040823
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0319 AM HAIL 2 NE WINFIELD 37.29N 96.94W
10/04/2008 E0.88 INCH COWLEY KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CDJ

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KICT [040814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 040814
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 AM HAIL WINFIELD 37.27N 96.97W
10/04/2008 E0.75 INCH COWLEY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

CDJ

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040733
SWODY3
SPC AC 040730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE
MAIN BRANCH OF POLAR WLYS FARTHER NORTH. A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE EAST AND SE THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS LIKELY
EXTENDING FROM ERN OK SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND SW TX BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...

AXIS OF SOMEWHAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDING OVER THE
WRN GULF WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR BY MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
AN IMPULSE WILL EJECT NEWD ALONG ERN PORTIONS OF UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE LOW
LEVEL JET GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD THROUGH ERN KS...MO AND IA DURING
THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT FROM PARTS OF NRN TX THROUGH OK AND KS MONDAY MORNING...BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION BY EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

OPPORTUNITY WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF
INITIAL STORMS FROM N CNTRL TX THROUGH OK AND KS WHERE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL HAVE WEAKENED...BUT BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. PARTIAL CLEARING IN DRY SLOT REGION IN WAKE OF
LEAD IMPULSE AND POSSIBILITY OF MIXING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST MAY RESULT IN AT LEAST MARGINAL MLCAPE IN THESE REGIONS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS UPSTREAM IMPULSE DROPS SEWD THROUGH
BASE OF UPPER TROUGH.

THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL GIVEN LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES
REGARDING EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL. WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
UPDATES.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2307

ACUS11 KWNS 040700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040659
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2307
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EASTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST
MO/WESTERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 040659Z - 040900Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO SOUTHWEST MO/WESTERN AR. THE RELATIVELY ISOLATED/MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EXPECTED RISK SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH
ISSUANCE.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED AN INTENSIFICATION TREND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL OK EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS
FEATURES A ROUGHLY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SLOW MOVING WARM
FRONT ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK/NORTHERN TX. TRENDS OF WSR-88D DERIVED
WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT A 40+ KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF TX/OK.
AS THIS LOW LEVEL JET FURTHER INCREASES/VEERS OVERNIGHT PER SHORT
TERM RUC GUIDANCE...PARCELS GRADUALLY BEING ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO
THEIR LFC ON THE EAST-NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE GRADUALLY
NORTHEAST-ADVANCING WARM FRONT SHOULD FAVOR AN UPSWING IN DEEP
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

EARLY EVENING OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM NORMAN/FORT WORTH REFLECTED
THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/1000-1500 J PER KG MUCAPE/ THAT IS IN PLACE COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE/MOIST AXIS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. WHILE MID
LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE MODEST OWING TO SHORTWAVE RIDGING...AMPLE
VEERING THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT
ROTATION...WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/04/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

37039796 37969556 37149421 34689421 34699643

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 040549
SWODY2
SPC AC 040546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE
TO AMPLIFY SEWD...BEFORE ADVANCING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY. A
STRONG UPPER JET WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE WRN AND SRN PART OF THE
UPPER TROUGH...REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. A LEE TROUGH
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA...

ENELY TRAJECTORIES ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF ERN U.S. SURFACE RIDGE HAS
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION ALONG THE NRN GULF. FRIDAY
EVENING RAOBS INDICATED MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH LOW 60S
DEWPOINTS OVER S TX. STRONG SLY GRADIENT FLOW EAST OF LEE TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD ADVECTION OF MODIFIED CP AIR THROUGH SRN
PLAINS WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION MAY START EARLY SUNDAY FROM
NM THROUGH NRN PARTS OF W TX WITHIN REGION OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING UPPER JET EXIT REGION. MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND EXPECTED AREAS OF CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
MITIGATE DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL AND SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP
OVER CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF WRN TX AND CLOUDS MAY MIX FROM THE SW AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS TO SWLY WEST OF TROUGH AXIS. STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER MOIST AXIS LATER IN THE DAY...AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY OVER WRN
TX AS THE ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES. THE AGEOSTROPHIC
CIRCULATION WITHIN UPPER JET EXIT REGION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
30-40 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. COUPLED
JET STRUCTURE WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS STORMS
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND CONTINUE EAST THROUGH N TX AND OK.

..DIAL.. 10/04/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 040452
SWODY1
SPC AC 040449

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 03 2008

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE DEEPENING TROUGH
ACROSS WRN CONUS...EXTENDING SEWD FROM LARGE UPPER CYCLONE COVERING
MUCH OF AK. BROADER SCALE WRN TROUGHING WILL BE REINFORCED BY
SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS SE OF THAT NOW APCHG
WA/ORE COAST. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SWD FROM ERN HUDSON
BAY AND DEEPEN ALMOST INTO CLOSE LOW OVER NERN ONT BY END OF PERIOD.
IN BETWEEN...CONUS PORTION OF MIDCONTINENTAL RIDGING IS FCST TO
BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SHORTER IN WAVELENGTH...RESEMBLING MORE
OMEGA-LIKE PATTERN WITH TIME AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES...AND ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MB.

AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING IS FCST TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH
PERIOD...FROM MT TO TX PANHANDLE. DIFFUSE/SEGMENTED DRYLINE
DEVELOPMENT REASONABLY IS INDICATED BY SREF CONSENSUS OVER
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INVOF LEE TROUGH. BROAD WARM FRONTAL ZONE
-- NOW ANALYZED FROM SERN CO SEWD ACROSS SWRN OK...N-CENTRAL TX AND
CENTRAL LA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE/REDEVELOP NWD THROUGH
TODAY...REACHING POSITION FROM NERN CO SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN KS
AROUND 5/00Z...THEN NWD TO W-CENTRAL SD AND SWRN IA 12 HOURS LATER.
PRONOUNCED RIDGING AND RESULTANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MS DELTA REGION SWWD INVOF TX COAST AND ADJACENT PORTIONS
NWRN GULF.

...OZARKS REGION...MORNING...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE 4/12Z ACROSS ERN
OK...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEAR NOSE OF
VEERING/25-40 KT SWLY LLJ MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ABOVE SFC.
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS
PERIOD...SHIFTING EWD/NEWD IN STEP WITH ZONE OF STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ELEVATED MUCAPES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES EACH SHOULD BE ON DECREASING TREND FROM 12Z ONWARD...BUT
STILL IN 500-1000 J/KG AND 35-45 KT RANGE RESPECTIVELY...IN SUPPORT
OF A FEW STG-SVR TSTMS. STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ALSO WILL WEAKEN WITH
LOSS OF NOCTURNAL LLJ. THEREFORE...SVR HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD BE
MARGINAL AND DIMINISHING BY 15Z.

...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...NOCTURNAL...
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH MRGL HAIL POTENTIAL FROM
STRONGEST CORES...ARE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY FROM 06Z ONWARD IN
EWD-SHIFTING/EXPANDING WAA REGIME. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALIGNED
GENERALLY NW-SE...PARALLEL TO AND NE OF SFC WARM FRONT AND IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONT IN 850-700 MB LAYER. NEWD-TRENDING BRANCH OF
50-60 KT CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND
HUMIDIFICATION OF AIR MASS ABOVE SFC...WITH INCREASING TENDENCY FOR
PARCELS TO BE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
BOTH BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SVR...BUT
WITH ELEVATED MUCAPES 400-800 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN 30-40 KT
RANGE...A FEW TSTMS WITH STG-SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

...INTER-MTN W...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION...IN STEP WITH EWD SHIFT OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT. FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WARM MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL INHIBIT LAPSE RATES
AND THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF DAY ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND
SRN HIGH PLAINS...BUT DESTABILIZATION ALOFT WILL SHIFT EWD AS RESULT
OF COMBINATION OF MIDLEVEL DPVA AND UPPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LEFT EXIST REGION OF STRONGLY CYCLONIC 250 MB JET MAX. DURING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SVR PRIOR TO WLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT...WITH 35-50 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR IN FCST SOUNDINGS -- OVER WIDE AREA OF ERN GREAT BASIN
AND 4-CORNERS REGIONS INTO WRN PORTION SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...VERY
LIMITED BUOYANCY MAY JUST BARELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFTS AMIDST STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT. GUSTY WINDS AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND SMALL HAIL...ARE POSSIBLE FROM ALMOST ANY
PERSISTENT TSTM OVER BROAD AREA. HOWEVER SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MRGL...CONDITIONAL AND SPATIALLY DIFFUSE TO ASSIGN UNCONDITIONAL
PROBABILITY AREA AOA 5-PERCENT ATTM.

..EDWARDS/BOTHWELL.. 10/04/2008

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KSTO [040441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSTO 040441
LSRSTO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
941 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM FLASH FLOOD ENE PARADISE 39.76N 121.60W
10/03/2008 BUTTE CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

CAL FIRE REPORTING THREE SMALL ROCK/DEBRIS SLIDES ALONG
HIGHWAY 70 BETWEEN THEIR FIRE STATION AND PULGA BRIDGE.
CAL TRANS TO CLEAN UP.

&&

$$

CPALMER

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