SWODY1
SPC AC 041237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SAT OCT 04 2008
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WILL CARVE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN STATES AND ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SHIFTING DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST...PRESSURE FALLS WILL
SOLIDIFY SURFACE LEE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING FROM LOW
CENTER OVER ERN MT INTO WRN TX. IN ADDITION...LARGER WARM FRONT
WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE
LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY BY LATE TODAY...WITH ERN END LIFTING NNEWD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID MS/MO RIVER VALLEYS.
...MID MO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY...
AS SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD TONIGHT...LOCATION FOR MOST
FAVORABLE DEEP ASCENT ALONG NOSE STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AND SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AFTER 06Z. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR MODEST
MUCAPE AND LIKELY SUPPORT HAIL /SOME OF WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY
SEVERE/ IN THE STRONGER CORES.
...ELSEWHERE...
ONGOING CLUSTER/S OF STORMS OVER ERN OK INTO FAR SERN KS/SWRN MO AND
WRN AR ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH MID MORNING AS
DIURNAL MIXING WEAKENS WSWLY LLJ. PRIMARY AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN SHIFT TO DIURNAL INCREASE IN MOIST CONVECTION
WITHIN LARGER AREA OF SEASONABLY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES. DEEP MIXING NEAR LEE TROUGH MAY
ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS REMAINS QUITE LOW WITH
MEAGER INSTABILITY.
..EVANS.. 10/04/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment