ACUS01 KWNS 150051
SWODY1
SPC AC 150045
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NM WITHIN A RELATIVE COLD POCKET
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER VORT MAX...HAS WEAKENED WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. FARTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS OK AND N TX.
00Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM...AND AS
LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...NARROW CAPE PROFILES /WITH LESS
THAN 100 J/KG/ MAY EVOLVE. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK...COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT...PRECLUDING INCLUSION IN A
GENERAL THUNDER AREA.
..ROGERS.. 11/15/2013
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Thursday, November 14, 2013
KHUN [142015]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS54 KHUN 142015
LSRHUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0758 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW HUNTSVILLE 34.74N 86.61W
11/12/2013 MADISON AL BROADCAST MEDIA
HIGH WINDS CAUSED A TREE TO FALL ON POWERLINES ALONG
TIMBERLANE AVENUE IN NORTHWEST HUNTSVILLE. THIS CAUSED A
BRIEF POWER OUTAGE FROM UNIVERSITY DRIVE NORTH TO OAKWOOD
AVENUE AND BETWEEN MEMORIAL PARKWAY AND JORDAN LANE.
&&
$$
DJN
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LSRHUN
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
215 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0758 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 WNW HUNTSVILLE 34.74N 86.61W
11/12/2013 MADISON AL BROADCAST MEDIA
HIGH WINDS CAUSED A TREE TO FALL ON POWERLINES ALONG
TIMBERLANE AVENUE IN NORTHWEST HUNTSVILLE. THIS CAUSED A
BRIEF POWER OUTAGE FROM UNIVERSITY DRIVE NORTH TO OAKWOOD
AVENUE AND BETWEEN MEMORIAL PARKWAY AND JORDAN LANE.
&&
$$
DJN
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 142000
SWODY1
SPC AC 141958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST. TSTM POTENTIAL FOR AREAS SUCH AS FAR
SOUTHWEST TX TODAY...AND NORTH TX/OK LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY...APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT 10 PERCENT TSTM
PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER.. 11/14/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE UPSTREAM A SECOND TROUGH DIGS SWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING WRN UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN VICINITY LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION. LIKEWISE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX
VICINITY...AS A ZONE OF QG FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...NEITHER AREA REQUIRES INCLUSION OF 10% COVERAGE
AREA ATTM.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 141958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST. TSTM POTENTIAL FOR AREAS SUCH AS FAR
SOUTHWEST TX TODAY...AND NORTH TX/OK LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY...APPEARS TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT 10 PERCENT TSTM
PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER.. 11/14/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE UPSTREAM A SECOND TROUGH DIGS SWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING WRN UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN VICINITY LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION. LIKEWISE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX
VICINITY...AS A ZONE OF QG FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...NEITHER AREA REQUIRES INCLUSION OF 10% COVERAGE
AREA ATTM.
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KKEY [141813]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 141813
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
113 PM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
11/14/2013 M43 MPH GMZ044 FL C-MAN STATION
A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS...OR 43
MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION.
&&
$$
BS
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
113 PM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
11/14/2013 M43 MPH GMZ044 FL C-MAN STATION
A NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS...OR 43
MPH...WAS MEASURED BY THE SAND KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION.
&&
$$
BS
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 141732
SWODY2
SPC AC 141730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE
AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHILE CYCLOGENESIS/MOIST ADVECTION
OTHERWISE INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
WEAK DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
TSTMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND THE INFLUENCES OF A LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO ABATE...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR NEAR/ABOVE THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AID OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED MOISTENING ALOFT
RELATIVE TO LINGERING CAPPING PROVIDES A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF TSTMS FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT EVEN
SO...A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS /HIGHLY ELEVATED/ WILL EXIST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 11/14/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 141730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
EXTENSIVE CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT BASIN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE
AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA...WHILE CYCLOGENESIS/MOIST ADVECTION
OTHERWISE INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.
...FOUR CORNERS AREA...
WEAK DIURNALLY-MAXIMIZED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A FEW
TSTMS MAINLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MIDDLE MO VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT...
WHILE CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES AND THE INFLUENCES OF A LINGERING
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO ABATE...MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR NEAR/ABOVE THE SURFACE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AID OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED MOISTENING ALOFT
RELATIVE TO LINGERING CAPPING PROVIDES A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF TSTMS FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT EVEN
SO...A LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS /HIGHLY ELEVATED/ WILL EXIST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION.
..GUYER.. 11/14/2013
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KMFL [141641]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KMFL 141641
LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1141 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
11/13/2013 M45 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION
AT 900 PM EST...THE C-MAN STATION AT FOWEY ROCK
RECORDED A NORTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KTS...OR 45
MPH...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KTS...OR 39 MPH. THIS
OBSERVATION SITE IS AT AN ELEVATION OF APPROXIMATELY 144
FT.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1300245
$$
ROSS
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LSRMFL
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1141 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SSE KEY BISCAYNE 25.59N 80.10W
11/13/2013 M45 MPH AMZ651 FL C-MAN STATION
AT 900 PM EST...THE C-MAN STATION AT FOWEY ROCK
RECORDED A NORTHEAST WIND GUST OF 39 KTS...OR 45
MPH...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KTS...OR 39 MPH. THIS
OBSERVATION SITE IS AT AN ELEVATION OF APPROXIMATELY 144
FT.
&&
EVENT NUMBER MFL1300245
$$
ROSS
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 141623
SWODY1
SPC AC 141621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE UPSTREAM A SECOND TROUGH DIGS SWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING WRN UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN VICINITY LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION. LIKEWISE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX
VICINITY...AS A ZONE OF QG FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...NEITHER AREA REQUIRES INCLUSION OF 10% COVERAGE
AREA ATTM.
..GOSS.. 11/14/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 141621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 141630Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS PROGGED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO EJECT OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHILE UPSTREAM A SECOND TROUGH DIGS SWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHILE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING WRN UPPER
SYSTEM SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN VICINITY LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION. LIKEWISE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE TX
VICINITY...AS A ZONE OF QG FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...NEITHER AREA REQUIRES INCLUSION OF 10% COVERAGE
AREA ATTM.
..GOSS.. 11/14/2013
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KKEY [141553]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 141553
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1046 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E KEY WEST 24.56N 81.76W
11/14/2013 M43 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL MESONET
A NORTHEAST WIND GUST OF 37 KTS...OR 43 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY THE RSOIS ANEMOMETER AT THE WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE IN KEY WEST.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1046 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E KEY WEST 24.56N 81.76W
11/14/2013 M43 MPH LOWER KEYS IN MONR FL MESONET
A NORTHEAST WIND GUST OF 37 KTS...OR 43 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY THE RSOIS ANEMOMETER AT THE WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE IN KEY WEST.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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KKEY [141430]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 141430
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
11/14/2013 M41 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION
AN EAST WIND GUST OF 36 KTS...OR 41 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY
THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
11/14/2013 M41 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION
AN EAST WIND GUST OF 36 KTS...OR 41 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY
THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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KKEY [141347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KKEY 141347
LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
847 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0722 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
11/14/2013 M39 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION
A EAST WIND GUST OF 34 KTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY
THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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LSRKEY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
847 AM EST THU NOV 14 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0722 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
11/14/2013 M39 MPH GMZ043 FL C-MAN STATION
A EAST WIND GUST OF 34 KTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY
THE SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT C-MAN STATION.
&&
$$
MPARKE
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 141249
SWODY1
SPC AC 141246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/WRN CONUS TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO MEAN TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPMENT
FROM PAC COAST TO MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. TWO MOST NOTABLE
PERTURBATIONS AMONG THEM ARE...
1. CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NERN CO ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA TO NERN
AZ--FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN NM AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION BY
00Z THEN PIVOT EWD TO ERN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX BY 12Z.
2. NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ADJOINING PAC WATERS...AND EXPECTED TO REACH SRN ID...NV AND CENTRAL
CA BY END OF PERIOD.
WHILE POTENTIAL IN EACH APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL...ISOLATED...AND
BRIEF FOR GEN TSTM AREAS...LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DEFINITIVELY IN
EITHER OF TWO REGIMES RELATED TO LEADING PERTURBATION.
...SRN ROCKIES TO W TX THIS AFTN...
DCVA AND RELATED COOLING ALOFT PRECEDING MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHIFTING/SPREADING SEWD
OVER CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/ERN NM ACROSS TRANS-PECOS REGION INTO NRN
CHIHUAHUA...AND PERHAPS SRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK. MOST AGGRESSIVE
DESTABILIZATION PROGS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY JUXTAPOSED COMBINATION
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO YIELD
MINUSCULE BUOYANCY WITH NARROW CAPE PROFILES -- I.E. LI NO MORE
NEGATIVE THAN -2 FOR MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN QUITE SCANT...EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL POCKETS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN MEX...AND IS MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDER N OF
MEX BORDER.
...CENTRAL/ERN OK OVERNIGHT...
STG LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FROM LATE AFTN ONWARD ACROSS
SRN PLAINS...AMIDST FAVORABLE MASS RESPONSE TO APCHG MID-UPPER
PERTURBATION. TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATES SUFFICIENT
COOLING AND MOISTENING IN 650-750 MB LAYER TO YIELD NEAR-SATURATED
CONDITIONS...NEARLY UNCAPPED...BELOW STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. RESULTING AREA OF UP TO 100 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...WITH -1
TO -2 LI...SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND MAY FOSTER
SHALLOW MIDLEVEL CONVECTION. IN SOME CASES...BUOYANCY MAY REACH
MRGLLY/BRIEFLY INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS ALOFT...BUT APPEARS TOO
SMALL AND DEPENDENT ON OPTIMAL REALIZATION OF NEAR-700-MB THETAE TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED THUNDER THREAT.
..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 11/14/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 141246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/WRN CONUS TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO MEAN TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPMENT
FROM PAC COAST TO MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. TWO MOST NOTABLE
PERTURBATIONS AMONG THEM ARE...
1. CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NERN CO ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA TO NERN
AZ--FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN NM AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION BY
00Z THEN PIVOT EWD TO ERN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX BY 12Z.
2. NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ADJOINING PAC WATERS...AND EXPECTED TO REACH SRN ID...NV AND CENTRAL
CA BY END OF PERIOD.
WHILE POTENTIAL IN EACH APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL...ISOLATED...AND
BRIEF FOR GEN TSTM AREAS...LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DEFINITIVELY IN
EITHER OF TWO REGIMES RELATED TO LEADING PERTURBATION.
...SRN ROCKIES TO W TX THIS AFTN...
DCVA AND RELATED COOLING ALOFT PRECEDING MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHIFTING/SPREADING SEWD
OVER CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/ERN NM ACROSS TRANS-PECOS REGION INTO NRN
CHIHUAHUA...AND PERHAPS SRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK. MOST AGGRESSIVE
DESTABILIZATION PROGS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY JUXTAPOSED COMBINATION
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO YIELD
MINUSCULE BUOYANCY WITH NARROW CAPE PROFILES -- I.E. LI NO MORE
NEGATIVE THAN -2 FOR MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN QUITE SCANT...EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL POCKETS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN MEX...AND IS MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDER N OF
MEX BORDER.
...CENTRAL/ERN OK OVERNIGHT...
STG LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FROM LATE AFTN ONWARD ACROSS
SRN PLAINS...AMIDST FAVORABLE MASS RESPONSE TO APCHG MID-UPPER
PERTURBATION. TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATES SUFFICIENT
COOLING AND MOISTENING IN 650-750 MB LAYER TO YIELD NEAR-SATURATED
CONDITIONS...NEARLY UNCAPPED...BELOW STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. RESULTING AREA OF UP TO 100 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...WITH -1
TO -2 LI...SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND MAY FOSTER
SHALLOW MIDLEVEL CONVECTION. IN SOME CASES...BUOYANCY MAY REACH
MRGLLY/BRIEFLY INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS ALOFT...BUT APPEARS TOO
SMALL AND DEPENDENT ON OPTIMAL REALIZATION OF NEAR-700-MB THETAE TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED THUNDER THREAT.
..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 11/14/2013
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 141000
SWOD48
SPC AC 141000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MOST GUIDANCE NOW APPEARS GENERALLY FASTER
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH MOST RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM SECTOR 850 MB FLOW...PERHAPS IN
EXCESS OF 70 KTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
AND SHEAR. IT ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT LEAST
AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH A
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN EARLY STAGES
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT
SEVERE THREAT. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD
PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO
DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY
DEPICTED. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW.
..KERR.. 11/14/2013
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SWOD48
SPC AC 141000
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. MOST GUIDANCE NOW APPEARS GENERALLY FASTER
WITH THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY TO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...WITH MOST RAPID SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...COUPLED
WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM SECTOR 850 MB FLOW...PERHAPS IN
EXCESS OF 70 KTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
AND SHEAR. IT ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL
COINCIDE WITH AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT LEAST
AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT. SUPERCELLS WITH A
RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN EARLY STAGES
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY VALLEY.
EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT
SEVERE THREAT. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD
PROGRESS INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO
DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA EAST OF THAT CURRENTLY
DEPICTED. THEREAFTER...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD APPEARS LOW.
..KERR.. 11/14/2013
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 140832
SWODY3
SPC AC 140830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG
THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE INTO AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S...WITH THE GFS REMAINING SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
14/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FASTER...AND APPEAR IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 14/03Z
NCEP SREF...WHICH IS FASTER THE 14/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM. IT
CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING A DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN/EASTERN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR...AND MAY NOT BEGIN
INCREASING SUBSTANTIVELY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN...AND MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE.
...LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES...
ONLY SUB-SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING INTRODUCED FOR
NOW...BUT THESE COULD BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE AREAL DELINEATION OF THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WAS HEAVILY INFLUENCE BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND
NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE DEPICTION OF DEVELOPMENTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET /50-60+ KT AT 850 MB/ MAY PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...AND THE
EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE.
..KERR.. 11/14/2013
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SWODY3
SPC AC 140830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG
THE MODELS CONCERNING THE SPEED OF THIS FEATURE INTO AND THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S...WITH THE GFS REMAINING SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
14/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE TRENDED A
BIT FASTER...AND APPEAR IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 14/03Z
NCEP SREF...WHICH IS FASTER THE 14/00Z OPERATIONAL NAM. IT
CURRENTLY SEEMS MOST PROBABLE THAT STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING A DEEPENING
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY BY 12Z SUNDAY.
IN ADVANCE OF THE PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY PROGRESS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION...DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN/EASTERN ONTARIO. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WILL ALREADY BE UNDERWAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...TOWARD THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOWER TO OCCUR...AND MAY NOT BEGIN
INCREASING SUBSTANTIVELY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING. DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS LIKELY TO AWAIT BETTER MOISTURE RETURN...AND MID-LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPSTREAM IMPULSE.
...LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO CONSIDERABLE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES...
ONLY SUB-SLIGHT RISK SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING INTRODUCED FOR
NOW...BUT THESE COULD BE INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. THE AREAL DELINEATION OF THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WAS HEAVILY INFLUENCE BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND
NCEP SREF ENSEMBLE DEPICTION OF DEVELOPMENTS. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE/CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET /50-60+ KT AT 850 MB/ MAY PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE POTENTIAL
INCREASES AND SLOWLY DEVELOPS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...AND THE
EVOLUTION OF A SQUALL LINE.
..KERR.. 11/14/2013
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BLOCKED REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PACIFIC...AN INTENSE MID/UPPER JET APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE NOSING IN A ANTICYCLONIC BELT NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...CONTRIBUTING
TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION...BUT IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT AN
INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP...ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF A MODIFYING/DEEPENING MOIST GULF OF
MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT. CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT PROBABLY
WILL PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH. EVEN WHERE THE RETURNING
MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES STILL
APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING.
...FLORIDA...
CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY APPROACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE
THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
LIGHTNING AS IT SPREADS INTO A PROGRESSIVELY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE REACHING COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 11/14/2013
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SWODY2
SPC AC 140600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BLOCKED REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PACIFIC...AN INTENSE MID/UPPER JET APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE NOSING IN A ANTICYCLONIC BELT NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...CONTRIBUTING
TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION...BUT IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT AN
INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP...ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF A MODIFYING/DEEPENING MOIST GULF OF
MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT. CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT PROBABLY
WILL PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH. EVEN WHERE THE RETURNING
MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES STILL
APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING.
...FLORIDA...
CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY APPROACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE
THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
LIGHTNING AS IT SPREADS INTO A PROGRESSIVELY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE REACHING COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 11/14/2013
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 140545
SWODY1
SPC AC 140542
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AS BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND WRN GREAT BASIN. A SFC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
COASTAL CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CONUS...RESULTING IN LOW POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS.
...NM AND FAR W TX...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER UT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO NM AND W TX BY 15/00Z.
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF NM INTO THE ERN NM PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF FAR W
TX...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SCANT
MOISTURE AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TSTM
POTENTIAL.
..ROGERS/SMITH.. 11/14/2013
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SWODY1
SPC AC 140542
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AS BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND WRN GREAT BASIN. A SFC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
COASTAL CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CONUS...RESULTING IN LOW POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS.
...NM AND FAR W TX...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER UT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO NM AND W TX BY 15/00Z.
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF NM INTO THE ERN NM PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF FAR W
TX...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SCANT
MOISTURE AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TSTM
POTENTIAL.
..ROGERS/SMITH.. 11/14/2013
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