DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140545
SWODY1
SPC AC 140542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST WED NOV 13 2013

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...AS BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A MORE POWERFUL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SWD
ACROSS THE PAC NW AND WRN GREAT BASIN. A SFC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
COASTAL CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CONUS...RESULTING IN LOW POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS.

...NM AND FAR W TX...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER UT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SHIFT SEWD INTO NM AND W TX BY 15/00Z.
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF NM INTO THE ERN NM PLAINS...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF FAR W
TX...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SCANT
MOISTURE AND VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT TSTM
POTENTIAL.

..ROGERS/SMITH.. 11/14/2013

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